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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #12,961
  • Jan 21, 2010 9:10am Jan 21, 2010 9:10am
Quoting lilpip
For the day Im looking at up from 4016-25 area and down from 4228-53.

Unfortunately to busy to battle.
Don't forget your untested low at 4163, there's little movement after the news release, we may have run out of steam for the time being for this run south, these last few bottom pushes south didn't make much new ground, and now we are retracing heavily into the last high, I'd expect probably some consolidation down here, with an attempt to retest of the low, succeeds and timber, failure or match = range setting up or possible 2nd leg correction to your above #'s.

The majority bias is south, heavily. Specially with the big break south from the earlier correction, but it may be time to try and shake some of them loose.

regards,
  • #12,962
  • Jan 21, 2010 9:39am Jan 21, 2010 9:39am
whoa that was quick ...yen messed up too , stay nimble
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #12,963
  • Jan 21, 2010 9:40am Jan 21, 2010 9:40am
Quoting maheswara
whoa that was quick ...yen messed up too , stay nimble
Yea i got some help on my rescue...... btw what news did that..... what bought yen so down... philly index ???....



V
  • #12,964
  • Jan 21, 2010 9:59am Jan 21, 2010 9:59am
Wow, I shorted the E/$ and the E/J, then stepped away for half an hour and just got back. I'd rather be lucky than good. Still in the E/J and out of the E/$ looking for another entry.

Edit: re=entered the E/$ and protecting entry now.Up only 10 pips at this time so this may not be a profitable trade
  • #12,965
  • Jan 21, 2010 10:05am Jan 21, 2010 10:05am
Quoting Babi
Hi fti and thanks a lot for this great thread.

After being about 3 years in the forex industry and choosing the naked eye strategy as my main strategy, I still have some questions that want to ask...
Thanks to all who noticed.

piccolo: Very funny comment! But if you read my post carefully there is nothing funny in it. I asked for "expert's opinion", all the ordinary stuff are out there in the books, forums,... A have read dozens of them and that is why I choose naked eye strategy, which is working for me now better than any other strategies.

Setebos: Sorry, but I did not find the information I wanted and that is why I asked for help. If you know something special, I would be more than happy if you send me a link.

maheswara: Thank you very much for caring and trying to explain things.

By asking about Intermarket, I mean non-Forex markets. There are many examples that the market acted just opposite to what supposed to do and after a while some Experts (!) comments like: "the traders did not considered the X increase to be sustainable and then Y/Z dropped !!!". In my opinion, such comments are non-sense and misleading. There should be some signs before head, somewhere... . Volume analysis could explain some parts but not all.
Everyone knows the typical Bollinger band analysis but is there something other than squeezing, widening,... which are of little help in deciding to put or draw your money ?
I don't believe that the configuration of data is something related to someone's "style", it is an standard among many platforms. Is there something that a professional knows, not private traders?
  • #12,966
  • Jan 21, 2010 10:21am Jan 21, 2010 10:21am
Ok i will try to help as much as i can... about my level.. expect it two level below Mahesh..
Quoting Babi
Thanks to all who noticed.
By asking about Intermarket, I mean non-Forex markets. There are many examples that the market acted just opposite to what supposed to do and after a while some Experts (!) comments like: "the traders did not considered the X increase to be sustainable and then Y/Z dropped !!!".
We here try to see how the market is dancing ...flow.. here personally i know two people... One who just see only EU chart and decides the flow... another one i know have 5 screen and it shows Oil and Gold Prices as well before deciding.. i personally have dollar index on my screen before i place trade...
Quote
In my opinion, such comments are non-sense and misleading. There should be some signs before head, somewhere... . Volume analysis could explain some parts but not all.
Hey its your opinion....Slowly with time your opinion will change...

Quote
Everyone knows the typical Bollinger band analysis but is there something other than squeezing, widening,... which are of little help in deciding to put or draw your money ?
For some people its the INDICATOR VALIDATION to put on a trade for us as Mahesh said its the clue... we see in Clues... Max i can say is Elliot waves and ATR that all is..
Quote
I don't believe that the configuration of data is something related to someone's "style", it is an standard among many platforms. Is there something that a professional knows, not private traders?
Well that only professional knows we all here are just student....
  • #12,967
  • Jan 21, 2010 10:38am Jan 21, 2010 10:38am
Quoting Babi
Hi fti and thanks a lot for this great thread.

After being about 3 years in the forex industry and choosing the naked eye strategy as my main strategy, I still have some questions that want to ask from experts like you, and of course the others in the forum. The questions are manly focused on your "experience" and practical implementations, not just the pure theories :

[list=1][*]Do you actively observe intermarkets? if so, what "clue" are you looking for? I mean the type of clue that drives you to enter or exit the market.[*]In many...
Hi Babi,
Several thoughts between trades in answer to your questions:
Intermarkets: We trade forex PA here, but information on activities in other markets can be useful (for me, futures and Dow, gold and oil (sometimes). IMHO, no one here would enter a forex trade based on actions in other markets.
Trading platforms: I spend most of my time looking at charts and very little time on trading station. I only care about bid/ask, and spread. I can see high/low on my charts.
Bollinger bands: I have several charts with BB on them, but only use BB as one of many inputs. I use it for analysis, but not for trading.
Fifth decimal point: This is an invention of brokers to annoy traders. It means nothing to me.
I am sure other traders will have additional comments, and you may want to open your own thread on FF and ask your questions for a wider set of views and responses.
Good trading to you.
  • #12,968
  • Jan 21, 2010 10:43am Jan 21, 2010 10:43am
Quoting indianguyinny24

Well that only professional knows we all here are just student....
I think most professional traders think of themselves as students. This market (as we all know) requires ongoing training and eduction. I like to think that is one of the reasons we all stick together. LOL -- forex requires a humble attitude.
  • #12,969
  • Jan 21, 2010 11:02am Jan 21, 2010 11:02am
Quoting Babi
Thanks to all who noticed.

piccolo: Very funny comment! But if you read my post carefully there is nothing funny in it. I asked for "expert's opinion", all the ordinary stuff are out there in the books, forums,... A have read dozens of them and that is why I choose...
the market is what it is. a live beast.

you can't say something like:
Quote
market acted just opposite to what supposed to do
there is nothing what a market should or should not do. you cannot trade on that. you can trade on what the market is doing right now and if the wind changes, pull out.

about news and expert opinions.. let me quote one interbank trader that I know: we MAKE the news. when the market "acts opposite of what it was supposed to do" it is they who do it.

I personally don't use Bollinger bands and can't comment on them but I believe any indicator to be just and aid for the trained mind. It is not used for trading, it is just there to "find the market" if you get lost.

About the signs and clues.. more often than not there are clues that tell you "something is up/be careful" but for sure they don't HAVE to be there. Because there is big liquidity if and when you find the market offguard. I don't know if you have read this book: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. It is a classic and it explains very well basic market concept and trading big (when you actually influence the price).

Only real advantage of a professional bank trader, as discussed many times here, is 1) seeing order flows, 2) inner loop of friends and drinking bodies in other banks. And salary.
  • #12,970
  • Edited 11:24am Jan 21, 2010 11:02am | Edited 11:24am
I wish mamood is here telling what he did for this drop.....long time i ahve seen such a drop on UJ...this is a rampage... again the market... must have made some people humble today...


V
  • #12,971
  • Edited 11:21am Jan 21, 2010 11:08am | Edited 11:21am
I hope that nobody got cought short e/u.

u/y pull was too strong.

I only get some news about risk aversion due to stocks falling.. I guess I have to take it with a wagon of salt.

Or somebody in Japan hit the wrong button. We have seen this happen before, lol.
  • #12,972
  • Jan 21, 2010 11:15am Jan 21, 2010 11:15am
Quoting indianguyinny24
I wish mamood is here telling what he did for this drop.....long time i ahve seen such a drop on UJ...


V
then that is why he was so quiet lately.. he must have been preparing for this.
  • #12,973
  • Jan 21, 2010 11:28am Jan 21, 2010 11:28am
Quoting piccolo
I hope that nobody got cought short e/u.

u/y pull was too strong.

I only get some news about risk aversion due to stocks falling.. I guess I have to take it with a wagon of salt.
I got caught in it. Not one of my better days, especially after a good start earlier in the day. Some mistimed rescuses did'nt help. Down 2.5% on the day. Could have been a lot worst. I will call it a day and start afresh tomorrow.

The NY session has certainly been wild. All the best for those still trading. Ray
  • #12,974
  • Jan 21, 2010 11:28am Jan 21, 2010 11:28am
Quoting piccolo
I hope that nobody got cought short e/u.

u/y pull was too strong.

I only get some news about risk aversion due to stocks falling.. I guess I have to take it with a wagon of salt.
i was long at 4110 4120 area i thought/felt?? these are triggered stops and go with the trend so i flipped..... time will tell how stupid i was.
i was stupid to begin with so my long was mini mini scout.
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #12,975
  • Edited 11:49am Jan 21, 2010 11:28am | Edited 11:49am
no attacking but did enjoy the ride, half off the table and leaving the rest till I can get back and work with her as other tasks are at hand.
I do have one eye on the screen from a distance , not completely unattended.

normally with e/u a 120 seems reasonable, shes indicated and told us maybe even a little more, prepared for 140-160 pip swings.
  • #12,976
  • Jan 21, 2010 12:30pm Jan 21, 2010 12:30pm
Quoting piccolo
the market is what it is. a live beast.


about news and expert opinions.. let me quote one interbank trader that I know: we MAKE the news. when the market "acts opposite of what it was supposed to do" it is they who do it.
Thank you piccolo; that is exactly what I want to say "Trading the news is playing their game". and that game could lead you to a big trap.

You know, except for the recent activities in the market which happened to be immense, the other times if you lose the first two candles of a trend, you are left to what Elder Alexander says : "greater fool theory !". Waiting for confirmation of a new trend is also the same.

Many times an important news is due to release at a turning point of the market. It is not a coincident. when you hear the news, the market has already moved in some direction, many times an important S/R point is violated greatly. But could you count on it? No way. I can correctly predict around 70% to 80 % of the moves but the rest will steal a great portion of the profits I have already earned. If I can avoid those false moves, you can imagine.

Don't tell me sentences like "this is the market, there is no holy grail". I believe in it too. there is no holy grail as the beginners believe. But I also believe that there is holy grail for those who correctly manage their account, analyse the market and have nerves to control the emotions.

I don't think that corporate traders dare to lose a great portion of their account to hear the other folks say "The market rejected the news". I also believe that there are different levels of corporate traders, I mean those who correctly analyse the market.

By the way, I'm still waiting for an answer to pinpoint on the issue and tells "practical" hints and clues, not some basics about Technical or Fundamental analysis.

Regards.
  • #12,977
  • Jan 21, 2010 1:26pm Jan 21, 2010 1:26pm
OK, I am done until Tokyo open. Great trading day and I hope you all got a bucket of pips today. Good trading to everyone.
  • #12,978
  • Jan 21, 2010 2:09pm Jan 21, 2010 2:09pm
Quoting Babi
....................
By the way, I'm still waiting for an answer to pinpoint on the issue and tells "practical" hints and clues, not some basics about Technical or Fundamental analysis.
Friend,

Read the thread.

Textor
  • #12,979
  • Jan 21, 2010 2:15pm Jan 21, 2010 2:15pm
Quoting Babi
By the way, I'm still waiting for an answer to pinpoint on the issue and tells "practical" hints and clues, not some basics about Technical or Fundamental analysis.
I am not clear what you mean here. Have you read this thread? Besides, your tone is a bit harsh, considering the fact that we are not obligated to end your waiting. Not trying to be difficult, but what are looking for here?
  • #12,980
  • Jan 21, 2010 2:41pm Jan 21, 2010 2:41pm
[quote=Babi;3388711]
Don't tell me sentences like "this is the market, there is no holy grail". I believe in it too. there is no holy grail as the beginners believe. But I also believe that there is holy grail for those who correctly manage their account, analyse the market and have nerves to control the emotions.

By the way, I'm still waiting for an answer to pinpoint on the issue and tells "practical" hints and clues, not some basics about Technical or Fundamental analysis.
quote]
hello babi,

you ask here about practical advice, so i also thought you are looking for a holy grail in the beginner sense... sorry for that.
what this thread offers is subjects you have to study and gain much experiene to survive the markets... if you are good you can profit.
for me ...i am just surviving untill now
if you think you found your proffesional holy grail.... be very carefull.
esspecialy about analysing the market.... i learned here, that this is never certain you need MM and a good mindset to manage this uncertainty

about practical hints and clues: GEfx gave some good ones (futures and Dow, gold and oil)

Intermarkets: We trade forex PA here, but information on activities in other markets can be useful (for me, futures and Dow, gold and oil (sometimes). IMHO, no one here would enter a forex trade based on actions in other markets.
Trading

if you read the whole thread and ask questions about it, you find the support you need... if you have more questions not relating to TAF. you'll find many/better threads on subjects you are interrested in.

study hard and trade well, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
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