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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #12,941
  • Jan 21, 2010 5:19am Jan 21, 2010 5:19am
fti sir, my condolences to your mentor and may your wishes come true for the new year ahead

fana, i may not be any better than you so do take my words with a pinch of salt. but you should consider if you are against the current trend? if you find that you are, there should be no hesitation to get out. painful it may be, as i have experienced before, it is absolutely necessary.

HOPE is a bad word. go with the trend.
  • #12,942
  • Edited 5:50am Jan 21, 2010 5:22am | Edited 5:50am
Quoting Babi
Hi fti and thanks a lot for this great thread.

After being about 3 years in the forex industry and choosing the naked eye strategy as my main strategy, I still have some questions that want to ask from experts like you, and of course the others in the forum. The questions are manly focused on your "experience" and practical implementations, not just the pure theories :

[list=1][*]Do you actively observe intermarkets? if so, what "clue" are you looking for? I mean the type of clue that drives you to enter or exit the market.[*]In many professional...
Babi. Sorry for that bad joke i made at your expense.
My apologize. With respect, Fana.

So weak EUR. They should be crazy...
  • #12,943
  • Jan 21, 2010 5:50am Jan 21, 2010 5:50am
Happy trading day to everyone. Been rocking and rolling since London and now looking forward to NY. Took a long position in the Y/$ yesterday and it is still headed north, which is unusual for me to keep something open overnight.

fti -- I will keep you in my prayers while you are away, and will look forward to you getting back with us.

Fana -- I know from your previous posts that your current situation is in demo, so glad you are not risking real money, right? I am not clear what you were seeing when you took a long position on the E/$, so obviously you are not trading any known trend but instead have some other approach in mind. Perhaps you could share with us why a long position.

Babi -- Welcome to the thread. Please read it.
  • #12,944
  • Jan 21, 2010 6:03am Jan 21, 2010 6:03am
Quoting GEfx
Happy trading day to everyone. Been rocking and rolling since London and now looking forward to NY. Took a long position in the Y/$ yesterday and it is still headed north, which is unusual for me to keep something open overnight.

fti -- I will keep you in my prayers while you are away, and will look forward to you getting back with us.

Fana -- I know from your previous posts that your current situation is in demo, so glad you are not risking real money, right? I am not clear what you were seeing when you took a long position on the E/$, so...
Hello GEfx. Thank you... please, here is what i have done... ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,945
  • Jan 21, 2010 6:44am Jan 21, 2010 6:44am
Quoting Fana
Hello GEfx. Thank you... please, here is what i have done... ?
Fana, look at a 1H chart, and a 4H chart. There are no indications of an uptrend. You went long when the market was setting up for more short movement. Your 5M up trend is a bear flag on the 1H and a clear sign to get ready to short the market. Suggestion: before entering a trade based on your 5M, pull back to the 1H to make sure you are doing the right thing.
  • #12,946
  • Jan 21, 2010 6:53am Jan 21, 2010 6:53am
Quoting GEfx
Fana, look at a 1H chart, and a 4H chart. There are no indications of an uptrend. You went long when the market was setting up for more short movement. Your 5M up trend is a bear flag on the 1H and a clear sign to get ready to short the market. Suggestion: before entering a trade based on your 5M, pull back to the 1H to make sure you are doing the right thing.
Yes, it was really mistake. Another thing is how to prevent myself(before myself), before big loses.... How to be able to close it, when i find myself at the bad side...? Regards
  • #12,947
  • Jan 21, 2010 6:59am Jan 21, 2010 6:59am
Quoting Fana
Yes, it was really mistake. Another thing is how to prevent myself(before myself), before big loses.... How to be able to close it, when i find myself at the bad side...? Regards
That is easy, 1st: REDUCE YOUR POSITION, 2nd if you are at the wrong
side, close all positions.

Don't try to anticipate the trend, ride it.

Rgs.

T.
  • #12,948
  • Jan 21, 2010 7:03am Jan 21, 2010 7:03am
Quoting Babi
Hi fti and thanks a lot for this great thread.
Many thanks in advance.
Im no pro , but looks like noone answering here...

Do you actively observe intermarkets? if so, what "clue" are you looking for? I mean the type of clue that drives you to enter or exit the market.

market presents clues all the time , you need to be unbiased and feel the flow , after a significant amount of time watching the chart and trading it , you will capture the clues unconsciously ... so the key is to trade as much as you can ...

In many professional trading platforms there is an emphasis on the "quotes board", which typically is a box with high, low, bid, ask, ... scattered around the box. My question is what is special about such kind of presentation and how it affects a professional's trading, compared to the type of presentation in other platforms like Metatrader? what is special about "High" and "Low"?

To my knowledge they are not of any tremendous significance , you can trade of them if u like , probably scalp along those lines , but dont have any rigidity on it ...

I've heard that "Bollinger bands" are very important to professionals. Aside from what is written in the books, which are fairly similar and theoretical and I believe could be understood with naked eyes, what especial could be drawn from them and do you incorporate them in your trading?

Again you can trade them if u like , I used to have them in my early days but bands are just tools derived from price , if u watch price , u dont need to watch its derivation ... market keeps changing its form , the present flow is what most important , focus on price and nothing else ...

What is the practical implication of the fifth decimal in the price? Regarding the amount of spreads that are usually more than 2 pips in the retail market and the amount of fluctuations in every currency pair in every time period, it looks to be worthless looking at the fifth decimal. What is your experience and idea?

my experience says to keep things simple , as such the 5th decimal is just an annoyance and i ve disabled it comfortably ...

what i am trying to say is , trade as much as you can ...
now dont kill urself while doing so , set a small amount of money , get a flexible sizing broker and keep practicing till u get a hang on it ...

I replied to this cos I would hate it for anyone to drive away from the thread without reading it once, read and see if it makes sense to you ...

and Im generally bored thats y the coloring , they look nice no ?
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #12,949
  • Jan 21, 2010 7:03am Jan 21, 2010 7:03am
Quoting Fana
Yes, it was really mistake. Another thing is how to prevent myself(before myself), before big loses.... How to be able to close it, when i find myself at the bad side...? Regards
This is why is suggested trading a demo account. When you have the answers to your questions, maybe then you can trade real money. OK?
  • #12,950
  • Jan 21, 2010 7:06am Jan 21, 2010 7:06am
GEfx, Textor, Thank you for help.
  • #12,951
  • Jan 21, 2010 7:15am Jan 21, 2010 7:15am
Quoting Fana
GEfx, Textor, Thank you for help.
Did you see the opportunity to short at 1.4080?
  • #12,952
  • Edited 7:28am Jan 21, 2010 7:17am | Edited 7:28am
Fana,

Not trying to put you on the spot here, just trying to help.

How do you know when a trend has reversed?

regards,

edit, this has been posted before in the thread, it's simple and not the final answer by any means, but a good place to start for understanding. Then get John Hill's material "Ultimate trading guide" and study chapters 1-6
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Peaks%20and%20Troughs.pdf   181 KB | 775 downloads
  • #12,953
  • Jan 21, 2010 7:25am Jan 21, 2010 7:25am
Quoting GEfx
Did you see the opportunity to short at 1.4080?
Pullback on 1H. Yes...
  • #12,954
  • Jan 21, 2010 7:27am Jan 21, 2010 7:27am
Quoting auxesis
Fana,

Not trying to put you on the spot here, just trying to help.

How do you know when a trend has reversed?

regards,
Auxesis, i hope that i know. It is still H1 bear... ?
  • #12,955
  • Jan 21, 2010 7:28am Jan 21, 2010 7:28am
Quoting auxesis
Fana,

Not trying to put you on the spot here, just trying to help.

How do you know when a trend has reversed?

regards,
I can answer this question for Fana, because I had lots of bad experience in picking top/bottom in the past. It based on some analysis but actually no more than gamble. Also I felt it's a bargon to pick. Dangerous! Costly!
  • #12,956
  • Jan 21, 2010 7:33am Jan 21, 2010 7:33am
Quoting Fana
Auxesis, i hope that i know. It is still H1 bear... ?
Fana see my original post as I added some stuff,

for now it trading time
  • #12,957
  • Jan 21, 2010 7:37am Jan 21, 2010 7:37am
Quoting imjscn
I can answer this question for Fana, because I had lots of bad experience in picking top/bottom in the past. It based on some analysis but actually no more than gamble. Also I felt it's a bargon to pick. Dangerous! Costly!
Imjscn : Hello, i very appreciate every help. Its really now difficult... Thank you.
  • #12,958
  • Edited 8:28am Jan 21, 2010 7:38am | Edited 8:28am
Quoting piccolo
From someone who got mentored you have become a mentor yourself.

I believe that information should be free and open to everybody who are willing to embrace it. Therefore to present it in an open forum and in an open form has been the best one can do. Even if it feels opposite sometimes. If more people would read and study then there would be much less prey for snakeoil salesman. There would be much more people who can fish.

Handholding is hard because everybody has different backgrounds, motives and capacities and when people "don't get it"...
hello piccolo

you do make sense on all the points you make. imho this thread should be open to all. so the people who studied Fti's teaching can cive something back to the people who find the thread today and want to ask questions about what is presented (i still have many question myself) i sometimes try to give my opinion and maybe someone learns or i will be corrected and i learn myself. this is ideal i think.

about people who do not read first and then ask questions or worse disrespect the thread or fti... maybe there should be a standard reply to them, send it by PM so we don't waist waste space. and ignore them.

what you said about handholding/ blotter presentation.. i stopped following because also with me it puts doubt in my mind..... because of my scope of time i was often against others positions and we could all make money.

about reassurance, "am i doing right?".
it would be great to make regular use of TAFbased tradingdiscussion to compare charts with historical trades and size at the end of a trading session. i post most off my trading sessions in a journal... i rather post them in taw based... but i didn't want to clutter the thread by posting much.

i'll start to post the trading i am doing now.... stupid i am typing this now.
i t would be nice if you and others join me there and compare.
edit: i just cut a loss 4081 scout at 4095 because of work ... no dance to show.

regards, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #12,959
  • Jan 21, 2010 8:54am Jan 21, 2010 8:54am
I longed euro after the news break 4075-80 area for some quick pips on the second push, am square at the moment.

2nd round of figs out in 8 minutes.

Overall bias is south, 4120 is last significant high and resistance.

back later
  • #12,960
  • Jan 21, 2010 9:03am Jan 21, 2010 9:03am
Quoting auxesis
I longed euro after the news break 4075-80 area for some quick pips on the second push, am square at the moment.

2nd round of figs out in 8 minutes.

Overall bias is south, 4120 is last significant high and resistance.

back later
For the day Im looking at up from 4016-25 area and down from 4228-53.

Unfortunately to busy to battle.
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