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Razors Journal - Basic trading with PA at S/R

  • #321
  • Jan 11, 2010 5:23pm Jan 11, 2010 5:23pm
wow razor after reading this thread start to finish you consistantly post beautiful potential setups ... I like how you dont just automatically take the opposite break of these bars your very controlled... makes an excellent read on how IB's and Pin bars should be taken... I like to keep an eye out for these setups and take them at multiple trendline intersections where they intersect fibs points ... and I will only take them when confluence is at a maximum...

Now i trade exclusively currencies and I dont trade setups like these generally as I trade and fade changes in psyc. but do you find that trading these setups in a regulated market has a higher success rate than an unregulated market as you said you trade both.

Also do you find that the introduction to this low spread high frequency trading has effected the duration of your edge in the markets?

thanks dom
  • #322
  • Jan 11, 2010 7:18pm Jan 11, 2010 7:18pm
Quoting domino

Also do you find that the introduction to this low spread high frequency trading has effected the duration of your edge in the markets?

thanks dom
Im not 100% sure on the question but prior to 2009 I was trading the way I was taught (a $2600 course) which was to take trades when a certain number of things linked up. The biggest downside to this was not what I just wrote it was the goal of the trade. I was taught to take trades with no bigger than a 30 pip SL which meant using limit or stop orders to get in the market AND once in aiming for a set 1.5x reward. It worked well in some accounts but I found that I lost more than I won and even at 1.5x reward I was going absolutly no where. After 3 years of on again off again trading with little success (I didnt blow an account in this time period and havent since so I am grateful in that respect). The 30 pip limit which was fine on small scales was also just noise and over repetative attempts I couldnt seem to make any decent ground. The biggest sell point at the course was a wonderful spreadsheet that showed the class how only 45 pips a week could turn 10K into over 100K at 5% risk.

It was a lesson in hook, line and sinker because of the class that I attended with 15 people I was the only one left that attended the last traders night.

DIBs helped me in alot of ways. It taught me to balance trades on risk and not just have a fixed risk and try to build a trade around it. It focused on the taking of trades when there was a signal which over time gave me an edge in the ability to move past losses and focus on the next and it opened my eyes to the potential, in both directions, of not having a limit. In the course it was taboo not to have a profit limit set because it was considered greed and greed is a killer. It didnt take me long to learn that holding winners can be some of the easiest and stressless ways of trading. Holding winners is just smart trading however you also need to be able to absorb fluctuations and at times have a good trade turn to nothing.

Opportunities is what I am after, opportunities to learn, opportunities to gain experience and overall an opportunity to 1 day have enough trust in what I do to retire from the manual labour world which handcuffs, whips and screws society over through BS work, little pay and no chance for tax relief or any exemption that would allow them to prosper. I believe over the last year I have gained a number of small edges that have been working well for me, sooner now rather than later I will tackle this beast as my primary business.

Razor
  • #323
  • Jan 11, 2010 9:32pm Jan 11, 2010 9:32pm
Quoting Razor_trader
Opportunities is what I am after, opportunities to learn, opportunities to gain experience and overall an opportunity to 1 day have enough trust in what I do to retire from the manual labour world which handcuffs, whips and screws society over through BS work, little pay and no chance for tax relief or any exemption that would allow them to prosper. I believe over the last year I have gained a number of small edges that have been working well for me, sooner now rather than later I will tackle this beast as my primary business.

Razor

thanks for the answer good luck and great journal.
  • #324
  • Jan 13, 2010 5:29pm Jan 13, 2010 5:29pm
Hi Razor
Good to see you right back into the swing of things in the new year. Well done on your silver position,we must be like minded as I took a similar position at 17.30 and have another at 17.96.

I havent taken any off yet but am watching it closely as I feel there may be a possibility of a decent down swing in both siver and the Aussie in the near future. I will wait and let the market decide this but am ready if it happens.

I see you are branching out into other instruments, I think you will do well with those if you trade the same style as you do FX.

Anyway I thought I would just pop in and say G'day, good luck and trade well my friend.

Perry
  • #325
  • Jan 14, 2010 5:48am Jan 14, 2010 5:48am
Quoting perryg
Hi Razor
Good to see you right back into the swing of things in the new year. Well done on your silver position,we must be like minded as I took a similar position at 17.30 and have another at 17.96.

I havent taken any off yet but am watching it closely as I feel there may be a possibility of a decent down swing in both siver and the Aussie in the near future. I will wait and let the market decide this but am ready if it happens.

I see you are branching out into other instruments, I think you will do well with those if you trade the same style...
Hi mate,

I am just trading it technically at the moment but I like the look of it going past the high of 19.50, but if it doesnt then no harm as I have profit locked in anyways.

I got the tip from Xaron in regards to the other tradable options. It is the same platform as Oanda so it is a piece of cake as there is no adjustment needed (unlike the hard time adapting to Oanda from GFT). It is interesting seeing how other markets react to areas of S/R and that is about as hard as I want to make it on myself. I have dabbled in some of the indexes and still have my EUROStox short running, I took an Oil trade but lost after I could have netted a free trade (I walked away and literally forgot about it lol) and have just been busy plotting S/R and T/Ls here and there so the charts look normal.

I hope your feeling well, it has been a while since we chatted. Unfortunatly the skype thing feel through due to lack of interest, plus its hard to catch up for a trading session with people from all different timezones. Maybe in the future we will all meet up somewhere for coffee, while trading coffee.

Take care

Razor
  • #326
  • Jan 14, 2010 6:04am Jan 14, 2010 6:04am
Quoting Razor_trader
Hi mate,

I am just trading it technically at the moment but I like the look of it going past the high of 19.50, but if it doesnt then no harm as I have profit locked in anyways.

I got the tip from Xaron in regards to the other tradable options. It is the same platform as Oanda so it is a piece of cake as there is no adjustment needed (unlike the hard time adapting to Oanda from GFT). It is interesting seeing how other markets react to areas of S/R and that is about as hard as I want to make it on myself. I have dabbled in some of the indexes...
G'day Razor.
Can you pls elaborate on accessing the other tradeab;e options (eg indices)/ I use Oanda and would too be interested in opportunities to access these other instrument
cheers Mitch
  • #327
  • Jan 14, 2010 8:16am Jan 14, 2010 8:16am
Quoting MitchOZ
G'day Razor.
Can you pls elaborate on accessing the other tradeab;e options (eg indices)/ I use Oanda and would too be interested in opportunities to access these other instrument
cheers Mitch
Its done through Royal Bank of Scotland, the link is below. They utilise Oandas platform and there are a number of options there that are not with Oanda.https://marketindex.rbs.com/uk/Home.aspxhttp://
  • #328
  • Jan 14, 2010 8:23pm Jan 14, 2010 8:23pm
Quoting Razor_trader
Its done through Royal Bank of Scotland, the link is below. They utilise Oandas platform and there are a number of options there that are not with Oanda.https://marketindex.rbs.com/uk/Home.aspxhttp://
Thanks mate
  • #329
  • Jan 18, 2010 4:37am Jan 18, 2010 4:37am
hey razor hows it goin? i'm feeling a little tender after spending saturday evening drinking nothing but kamakaze's at a friends 30th oh my poor liver,,,but oh how i love that drink!

just wanted to say its understandable with the dibs thread! the concept really shows the division between the people who "get it" and the people who don't and the don't can be more than a little frustrating i commend you for posting as much as you have.

have you heard of the "monty hall paradox" it was talked about in the film 21 but anyway it causes people to act in the same frustrating manner even though the odds speak for themselves.

here it is:

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice? (Whitaker 1990)

As the player cannot be certain which of the two remaining unopened doors is the winning door, most people assume that each of these doors has an equal probability and conclude that switching does not matter. In fact, in the usual interpretation of the problem the player should switch—doing so doubles the probability of winning the car, from 1/3 to 2/3.


The player, having chosen a door, has a 1/3 chance of having the car behind the chosen door and a 2/3 chance that it's behind one of the other doors. It is assumed that when the host opens a door to reveal a goat, this action does not give the player any new information about what is behind the door he has chosen, so the probability of there being a car behind a different door remains 2/3; therefore the probability of a car behind the remaining door must be 2/3 (Wheeler 1991; Schwager 1994). Switching doors thus wins the car with a probability of 2/3, so the player should always switch (Wheeler 1991; Mack 1992; Schwager 1994; vos Savant 1996:8; Martin 2002).
  • #330
  • Jan 18, 2010 5:16am Jan 18, 2010 5:16am
EURO stox closed out for profit, Silver still running and have added AUD/JPY long which hit 1:1 by the pip and looks in danger of taking out the SL but is a free trade. Looking to add some positions over the coming days with a small break in the busy-ness (business) which should give me some time to have a better look.

Razor
  • #331
  • Jan 19, 2010 8:27am Jan 19, 2010 8:27am
Things are quite slow at the moment waiting for some potential setups that might yield results. I have over the past few days taken a couple of trades that did little. I took a small loss on Oil and a small loss on AUD/JPY long.

I still have Silver running and a small position on AUD/USD and GBP/JPY which were taken today off some not so great setups (looking back hindsight is great) but they are still doing ok and have tight SL on them

I thought I would post a chart on the silver trade I took with some hightlights to what I am looking for over the coming days perhaps into next week. It has a white line which was my entry (can also be confirmed by the horizontal blue line). The SL for the trade is trailing under the EMA, however this is only to take of another small portion. The rest I am aiming for over 19.50. As most know this trade had half come off at around 8x reward which helps with the mental side of allowing portions to run longer.

Any questions feel free to ask and I will try to answer

Razor
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Silver chart.jpg Size: 314 KB
  • #332
  • Jan 19, 2010 5:41pm Jan 19, 2010 5:41pm
Here is the chart of the GBY trade I took the a couple of days ago. The aussie ended up being a loser, I shortened the initial loss to 50 pips so I cut my losses on this one. This (GBP) trade is up over 50 pips and I have my SL now in to lock in at least 15 pips of profit.

Enjoy

Razor
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY daily IB.jpg Size: 306 KB
  • #333
  • Jan 20, 2010 3:02am Jan 20, 2010 3:02am
Quoting Razor_trader
Here is the chart of the GBY trade I took the a couple of days ago. The aussie ended up being a loser, I shortened the initial loss to 50 pips so I cut my losses on this one. This (GBP) trade is up over 50 pips and I have my SL now in to lock in at least 15 pips of profit.

Enjoy

Razor
Stopped out for a small profit
  • #334
  • Jan 21, 2010 5:55am Jan 21, 2010 5:55am
Close my silver trade at the breakout of the bearish outside bar (yellow line on chart).

I am now on the sidelines until this move is over. There's good S/R coming up so good solid PA may get me back in. Crude also had a good solid Pin Bar at a strong S/R point however 2 IBs have followed so there could be a strong break coming.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Silver BEOB closed.jpg Size: 134 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Crude Oil Daily.jpg Size: 147 KB
  • #335
  • Jan 21, 2010 6:26am Jan 21, 2010 6:26am
EUR/GBP day is still running but so far we are looking at a 2 day pin bar at support. I like the look of this bar because there is little traffic to hold you up which could means smooth sailing until resistance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP 2 day pin forming.jpg Size: 143 KB
  • #336
  • Jan 21, 2010 6:32am Jan 21, 2010 6:32am
I try not to put plans like this in place but a test and bounce at the 1.4000 round number and then a pullback to 1.4200. PA from that point and we could ride down to the next support level. Other option is the market moves to the lower support then bounces and comes back to retest 1.4000 or 1.42000 ( both possible with the amount of market mess there). Either way there could be profit
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD possible outlook.jpg Size: 136 KB
  • #337
  • Jan 21, 2010 6:59am Jan 21, 2010 6:59am
Here is Silver and something that may pan out. There is 2 scenarios and I will try to put in a chart by chart setup to show you somethings that I am looking at for this pair. As you can possible guess I do enjoy trading Silver.

Scenario 1 - pullback to bull run heading for $19.50. First Chart shows the horizontal support lines. 2 chart shows the fibs which has confluence around the 50% retrace area and is also the $17.50 region for those who like half and whole round numbers. So in this setup we are approaching the 50%. The 3rd chart is the 3 hourly (Oanda great) which shows a pin bar. Im not a fan of this pin bar (if it closes that way) because the size of it is tiny compared to the massive bearish candle before it. Lastly the hourly shows how the 38% retrace came into play albeit only temporarily, it lacked in my view space and confluence. So my eyes are on the 50% for a possible move. My first target if I got this would be to move to BE around traffic areas such as the 38% or the $17.80 low.

Scenario 2 - The failure to create a new high: In this situation I am taking the view point that the previous move up was a pullback and we are now looking a creating a new lower low. This comes from chart 1 (this will be in the next post) which shows the highs at an area that held up in the previous $19.50 run. Chart 2 shows the fib overlay which has confluence with the 61.8% retrace and that area of support. Chart 3 is the 3 hourly which you can see the triple top at that area and notice the BEOB before the break down (hence why I took profit at that area).

In both cases there is an argument for trade. So far both look to have plausible outcomes. I am on the sidelines waiting for more info. I could take a long to the area I mentioned and take some profit and in the event we get some strong movement down I may look towards the extension point of the 61.8% which could mean $15.00 mark is back in play. Time wil tell

Hope you enjoyed

Razor
  • #338
  • Jan 21, 2010 7:03am Jan 21, 2010 7:03am
Scenario 1
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: scene 1 act 2.jpg Size: 150 KB
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  • #339
  • Jan 21, 2010 7:08am Jan 21, 2010 7:08am
Scenario 2
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: scene 2 act 1.jpg Size: 153 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: scene 2 act 2.jpg Size: 156 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: scene 2 act 3.jpg Size: 72 KB
  • #340
  • Jan 21, 2010 9:17am Jan 21, 2010 9:17am
So we got a bounce from our fib/support area and look at the first area of traffic that silver has hit. This is a 1 hour chart. Had you taken a trade this would be the point I would be taking no chances and I would be locking in some profit or moving to BE at least.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Silver traffic.jpg Size: 157 KB
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