Islander and Medici trade the European open | Page 23 | Forex Factory

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Islander and Medici trade the European open

  • #441
  • Jan 21, 2010 3:30am Jan 21, 2010 3:30am
As far as stops go, I am similar to you so it must just be my trade selection http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/sad.gif

My biggest problem is I used to trade mean reversion on the ASX index and I find it VERY hard to stop looking for retraces. I am trying to create rules that I can follow to stop this very costly habit.

Agreed, looking for retraces is VERY bad for your equity......wait for a signal

Your envelopes on the MA are they 30 pips either side ? Yes

Are you guided by the colour of the 30MA or do you go long above and short below ?

The colour is just a visual reminder, its where price is in relation to the MA that's important and yes, basically Long Above and Short Below

When the envelopes are touched do you either close your current trade or if looking for an entry take the retrace trade.

The envelope is just an OB/OS guide and a warning that the move MIGHT slow down


As always, I'm looking for "a level" for price to react to and by using the MAs its easy to construct a set of trading rules.

As I've said before, I'm a "reaction trader" and Medici can give explainations of WHY price makes certain moves...

I hope this helps....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #442
  • Jan 21, 2010 3:35am Jan 21, 2010 3:35am
Hi Islander,

Thanks once again, I shall do some more homework on all that.
Money grows on the tree of persistence
  • #443
  • Jan 21, 2010 3:39am Jan 21, 2010 3:39am
Quoting Vantage
What a morning, just exited last trade at 6175. I have a guy here painting so am prob done for the day.

5 min chart.

1st trade 5 min HL buy 6267 after 2nd 1hr hammer. Nice call Mrs V. This was going against the daily and 4 hr trend so we were looking for 20-30 pip exit which came at confluence of todays open and fib of Y's range.

At that point 6290 ish we had a shooting star and then 2 hammers that did not push on. Went to 1 min for what I'll name an Islander entry, a LH there 6284. Now we are trending in line with daily. Nice call V. Not...

Nice one V and thanks for the Weekly Pivots....daily S2 broken, although the momentum is diminishing.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #444
  • Jan 21, 2010 3:56am Jan 21, 2010 3:56am
Quoting Islander
Nice one V and thanks for the Weekly Pivots....daily S2 broken, although the momentum is diminishing.....
Nice to have a good day like yesterday, I've had 3 days out of last 7 where for 1 reason or other (painters, commitments, no nice set ups whilst I've been here, 10 mins too late etc etc) I haven't traded at all. Frustrating.

Yesterday 1 trade but a nice one and several today.

Just some thoughts, yesterday had a nice run down to 6250 where it bounced, todays bounce was much lower, again small bounce from key area usually = move will continue. We 'discussed' that one a few times.

W M2 at 6150 is basically 150 pip lower, the kind of range where I would look at buying a level due to exhaustion without waiting for HL/LH. Missed it completely, Mrs V popped out to shops and I was doing above mega post.

Mrs V has been a little upset with me for posting too much and missing trades so I'll mainly do summaries I think.

Love your stuff as always Islander, Medici love yours too consider yourselves on my Xmas card list.
  • #445
  • Jan 21, 2010 4:02am Jan 21, 2010 4:02am
The W and M pivots on 4 hr chart.

Mrs V and I are 'trying' to work towards letting trades run longer. Some days we get right others we still miss out on. Trading between these big pivots is a big focus/work in progress. Especially where these key areas come at roughly a good days range.
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  • #446
  • Jan 21, 2010 4:14am Jan 21, 2010 4:14am
My last post for this morning - and V, I too am finding posting in real time difficult, so I'll slow down and just post when I can...

The early turn before FO, just under the 6300 level soon gave a confirmed sell, and , IMO, this unusually carried on for so far 3 hours without a retrace.

After touches of the outer band in the grey rectangle, price moved sideways for 40 candles before continuing south.

The 50% level that I mentioned was an obvious area for a TP and gave a bounce up to the 6200 level.....that level being more important than the 30 ema, and price turned down again to make new lows in the 6150 area also the WM2 pivot - thanks V http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

With the range so far ~ 170 pips vs the 10 day ADR of 119, some retrace may happen before NYO.....TWT....I hope to get back for then....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #447
  • Jan 21, 2010 4:19am Jan 21, 2010 4:19am
[quote=ozmacca;3386468]
Quoting Islander

Hi Islander,

I find it VERY hard to stop looking for retraces. I am trying to create rules that I can follow to stop this very costly habit.

thanks
My 2 cents worth.

Attached a D chart. Around 65-70% of the time one day simply follows the next. Look at upper/lower wicks to help also. As Islander said a few times and we all know the trend is your friend.

Like today there were good reasons to buy counter trend but THEN look for reasons to get back into D trend at key levels (watch thread starters for those methods). Usually they are very good trades/runs. Yes there are counter trend runs that result in some big days but they are the minority.

If you miss the top/bottom which is tricky Eyevoltage from psych levels thread did very well from trading harami's and hammers/shooting stars at end of runs but also in middle of moves.

Hope this helps and if I'm understanding your retraces issue, if I missed your meaning soooorrrrrrrrrry.

Cheers.
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  • #448
  • Jan 21, 2010 4:30am Jan 21, 2010 4:30am
Quoting Islander
My last post for this morning


and price turned down again to make new lows in the 6150 area also the WM2 pivot - thanks V http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

With the range so far ~ 170 pips vs the 10 day ADR of 119, some retrace may happen before NYO.....TWT....I hope to get back for then....
My last post also, as you say due to range done here I'm pretty sure we'll drift until pre US open. Mrs V disappeared long ago watching Shield dvd's just bought series 7 and we're watching the whole thing from the start of series 1?????

Anyway the W and M pivots seem to be big targets for the big boys and I have to believe that after massive run down the end was W M2 rather than the 50 psych level. Like I said a work in progress.
  • #449
  • Jan 21, 2010 7:17am Jan 21, 2010 7:17am
Cable retraced exactly to 38% of its fall since the high just before FO - € manged just over 61%.

Now we need to see if they can break their 5m 30 emas and head south again.....both put in 1 min LHs just after 8am est.....I've sold both....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #450
  • Jan 21, 2010 7:36am Jan 21, 2010 7:36am
Quoting Islander
Cable retraced exactly to 38% of its fall since the high just before FO - € manged just over 61%.

Now we need to see if they can break their 5m 30 emas and head south again.....both put in 1 min LHs just after 8am est.....I've sold both....

Closed both for a wash after the US jobs data pushed dollar lower.....they were half size as price was > 5m 30ema
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #451
  • Jan 21, 2010 8:50am Jan 21, 2010 8:50am
Cable's now got to within a couple of pips of its 61.8 retrace and its S1 level of 6230... €'s hit its 78.6 at its 4100 level.....

The wide range green harami candle at 09:30 est may signal the end of this retrace.....TWT

However, I'm cross that I became too interested in looking for the TP rather than following the continuation signals off the rising 30 ema and so missed out on 50 or so pips....http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #452
  • Jan 21, 2010 9:24am Jan 21, 2010 9:24am
I sold the euro as it broke back down through the 4100 level - also its fast 1 min EMA......cable may have turned at its S1 level and I'll sell if it breaks is fast EMA, currently at 6220
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #453
  • Jan 21, 2010 9:33am Jan 21, 2010 9:33am
Quoting Islander
I sold the euro as it broke back down through the 4100 level - also its fast 1 min EMA......cable may have turned at its S1 level and I'll sell if it breaks is fast EMA, currently at 6220
A wide ranged candle pushed € down to a 78.6 retrace of its last rally and just under its 4050 level, so I closed that short.

Still holding cable's short off its break of the fast ema....I'm looking for at least a 50% retrace to the 6175 / S2 area.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #454
  • Jan 21, 2010 9:58am Jan 21, 2010 9:58am
Quoting Islander
A wide ranged candle pushed € down to a 78.6 retrace of its last rally and just under its 4050 level, so I closed that short.

Still holding cable's short off its break of the fast ema....I'm looking for at least a 50% retrace to the 6175 / S2 area.....

TP hit in the spike down to S2......that completes a very satisfactory NY session.....I'll be back before FO tomorrow....BFN
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #455
  • Jan 21, 2010 11:22pm Jan 21, 2010 11:22pm
[quote=Vantage;3386754]
Quoting ozmacca

My 2 cents worth.

Attached a D chart. Around 65-70% of the time one day simply follows the next. Look at upper/lower wicks to help also. As Islander said a few times and we all know the trend is your friend.
Hope this helps and if I'm understanding your retraces issue, if I missed your meaning soooorrrrrrrrrry.

Cheers.
Hi Vantage,

Thanks for sharing some of your experience with me. I appreciate the fact that we can look over your shoulder, I understand that it would be a distraction when trading, but even a summary at days end is changing my understanding of what it takes to be a successful trader.
Money grows on the tree of persistence
  • #456
  • Jan 21, 2010 11:52pm Jan 21, 2010 11:52pm
GM folks - another eventful 24h. Surprisingly weak employment data, SP500 down under the magical 1120 retracement level, Asian equity markets taking a beating (~3%) in consuequence, US bank issuing buy recommendation on the Euro with a target at 4850.

Euro sits above the important 4117 level - 38.2% of the March-December rally - which may serve as support for take-off this session.

6210 and 6191 play a similar role for cable - 6210 being the bottom of the mid-December consolidation range and 6191 being the double daily high that now defines the top of a range. 6250 will be a nut to crack on the upside though.

From late Asian price action people are bullish both babies, so this will be an interesting day.

I've been a bit quiet lately as I haven't been trading at my best this week. So I may continue to be toned down until I've sorted that out but best of luck to all. Will be back at full strength soon.
  • #457
  • Jan 22, 2010 12:30am Jan 22, 2010 12:30am
Quoting medici
GM folks - another eventful 24h. Surprisingly weak employment data, SP500 down under the magical 1120 retracement level, Asian equity markets taking a beating (~3%) in consuequence, US bank issuing buy recommendation on the Euro with a target at 4850.

Euro sits above the important 4117 level - 38.2% of the March-December rally - which may serve as support for take-off this session.

6210 and 6191 play a similar role for cable - 6210 being the bottom of the mid-December consolidation range and 6191 being the double daily high that now defines...
GM - thanks for your analysis and I hope that you'll be back to full strength very soon http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif


I'm long cable after it broke the confluence of its DP and both MAs about 20 mins ago........€ had broken its MAs about 40 mins ago....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #458
  • Jan 22, 2010 12:37am Jan 22, 2010 12:37am
Closed cable long via ultra tight trailing stop placed after the earlier high at 6237 was breached....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #459
  • Jan 22, 2010 12:50am Jan 22, 2010 12:50am
A pull back close to the earlier highs at 6220 would allow me to buy as a HL......otherwise I'll see if the 1 min chart puts in a Lower High....

Euro halted at its R1 / yesterdays high confluence....cable's next pivot level is its MR1 at 6250....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #460
  • Jan 22, 2010 12:53am Jan 22, 2010 12:53am
Sold a half position after a LH......
Trading Levels with WRBs
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