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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #12,921
  • Jan 20, 2010 6:02pm Jan 20, 2010 6:02pm
Wao!
I was just dancing my bull and suddently, just now a drop of 30 pips. I am not aware of any US news going on...However I am done for the day! what a surprised!
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #12,922
  • Jan 20, 2010 7:37pm Jan 20, 2010 7:37pm

A ship sails and I stand watching till she fades on the horizon
and someone at my side says
She is gone.

Gone where? Gone from my sight, that is all.
She is just as large now as when I last saw her.
Her diminished size and total loss from my sight is in me, not in her.


And just at that moment, when someone at my side says she is gone,
there are others who are watching her coming over their horizon
and other voices take up a glad shout -
There she comes!


That is what dying is.
An horizon and just the limit of our sight.
Lift us up O Lord, that we may see further.


Bishop Brent




Like the ripples in a pond, the work of one man can spread out and touch the lives of many others.

fti

My deepest condolences on the loss of your good friend. My thoughts are with you and his family today. There is comfort in friendship and peace in love and I hope you are embraced by both today. Happy birthday dear fti.


Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #12,923
  • Jan 20, 2010 9:11pm Jan 20, 2010 9:11pm
By the looks of things Id say mm should be such to handle at least 140 pip swing.
  • #12,924
  • Edited 9:50pm Jan 20, 2010 9:25pm | Edited 9:50pm
as I watch e/u looking for direction
eyes on
g/u6250
u/j 91.55
a/u91.28
  • #12,925
  • Jan 20, 2010 10:00pm Jan 20, 2010 10:00pm
Quoting lilpip
By the looks of things Id say mm should be such to handle at least 140 pip swing.
hey lilpip ,
u shldnt fix such thing , if u r caught in the wrong side , reduce or bail out , can always reinstate at better price ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #12,926
  • Jan 20, 2010 10:14pm Jan 20, 2010 10:14pm
Well , I guess after looking at that e/u 70 pip move its just a red flag to me to expect swings.
How bout a mm reminder.
  • #12,927
  • Jan 20, 2010 10:35pm Jan 20, 2010 10:35pm
Hi fti and thanks a lot for this great thread.

After being about 3 years in the forex industry and choosing the naked eye strategy as my main strategy, I still have some questions that want to ask from experts like you, and of course the others in the forum. The questions are manly focused on your "experience" and practical implementations, not just the pure theories :

 

  1. Do you actively observe intermarkets? if so, what "clue" are you looking for? I mean the type of clue that drives you to enter or exit the market.
  2. In many professional trading platforms there is an emphasis on the "quotes board", which typically is a box with high, low, bid, ask, ... scattered around the box. My question is what is special about such kind of presentation and how it affects a professional's trading, compared to the type of presentation in other platforms like Metatrader? what is special about "High" and "Low"? When "trading from the chart", it looks like a continuous stream of price that fluctuates higher and lower. But what would you do when the price reaches the High/Low zones?
  3. I've heard that "Bollinger bands" are very important to professionals. Aside from what is written in the books, which are fairly similar and theoretical and I believe could be understood with naked eyes, what especial could be drawn from them and do you incorporate them in your trading?
  4. What is the practical implication of the fifth decimal in the price? Regarding the amount of spreads that are usually more than 2 pips in the retail market and the amount of fluctuations in every currency pair in every time period, it looks to be worthless looking at the fifth decimal. What is your experience and idea?


Many thanks in advance.

  • #12,928
  • Edited 1:31am Jan 21, 2010 12:47am | Edited 1:31am
Quoting Babi
Hi fti and thanks a lot for this great thread.

After being about 3 years in the forex industry and choosing the naked eye strategy as my main strategy, I still have some questions that want to ask from experts like you, and of course the others in the forum. The questions are manly focused on your "experience" and practical implementations, not just the pure theories :

[list=1][*]Do you actively observe intermarkets? if so, what "clue" are you looking for? I mean the type of clue that drives you to enter or exit the market.[*]In...
sounds like you work in marketing for a broker but don't really know what you are selling, lol.
  • #12,929
  • Edited 1:34am Jan 21, 2010 1:19am | Edited 1:34am
Quoting piccolo
sounds like you work in marketing for a broker but don't reallu know what you are selling, lol.
  • #12,930
  • Jan 21, 2010 1:26am Jan 21, 2010 1:26am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
Thanks to all the condolences, as also the well wishes for the happy returns of the day. I am touched.
This week I had been thinking heaps about too many issues, and probably had not been as eloquent as I should be.
In many ways watching my friends and mentors leaving me behind had not stood me in good state, But as always I will dust off the debris and find footing again to live everyday to the best I can be, as if it is my last. Well one day it would be true.

On the issues of how to continue this thread that it may be current for...
From someone who got mentored you have become a mentor yourself.

I believe that information should be free and open to everybody who are willing to embrace it. Therefore to present it in an open forum and in an open form has been the best one can do. Even if it feels opposite sometimes. If more people would read and study then there would be much less prey for snakeoil salesman. There would be much more people who can fish.

Handholding is hard because everybody has different backgrounds, motives and capacities and when people "don't get it" they become frustrated, impatient, ungrateful and even impolite. Therefore the motivation to do handholding can quickly fade.

I actually believe that blotter presentation is counterproductive for both parties. It takes time for fti to post it and it creates doubts in other traders minds. I have several times in last 2 weeks taken opposite trades of fti. Sometimes when fti flips, I am in deep profit. Sometimes when fti profits, I cut loss. Sometimes I am more or less in sync with the forum. Anyway, some thoughts come up in the head. I am not smarter than fti, I don’t have more experience than fti and I don’t have deep pockets.. why do I trade opposite of him? Trick is that you can’t trade with fti without understanding his thinking, his MO. In fast markets, he will flip or add and you will burn out while clicking “Refresh” button on the forum waiting for a new clue.

This is what I would want the most.. at end of day compare the blotters and see that everybody, including fti, has taken the same trades and reacted the same way to market changes. Of course it is an utopia. I want to know that whatever I am doing is right.. I want that re-assurance. I want to learn to act on general’s command even before he says it and when he does say, it has to be the same that I have acted on. 

Of course the market is the judge, the jury and the executioner but you can’t put a face to it. You can’t tell a joke to it.

I am not sure if I made much sense but just felt like replying to fti’s post.
  • #12,931
  • Jan 21, 2010 1:32am Jan 21, 2010 1:32am
Quoting Fana


But his IQ is maybe only average..... No, sorry...
use more coal or something...

...thats rays from my PC, it caused...
...no, seriously i am in some loses now...
are you long eur/usd?
  • #12,932
  • Jan 21, 2010 1:35am Jan 21, 2010 1:35am
Yes...
  • #12,933
  • Edited 1:50am Jan 21, 2010 1:35am | Edited 1:50am
Fti,

My condolences and prayers to you. I would like to thank him for having such a great student like you and I'm sure he was proud of you.

The most important thing is: His lessons will be remembered forever & never die.

Best regards,
  • #12,934
  • Jan 21, 2010 1:38am Jan 21, 2010 1:38am
What will happen E/U after 1.4060 level? up or down?

Sold G/U at 1.6224 chickened out 1.6191 now 1.6163 another 30 pips

Cheers,
  • #12,935
  • Jan 21, 2010 1:45am Jan 21, 2010 1:45am
Quoting Fana
Yes...
If you have read the thread then you have seen at least 2 episodes when people have been in deep 500-600pip loss positions. Fti did give some advice on them if you can find it.

My advice is to cut loss and take a break for 2-3 days. Please read DutchAngel's signature.
  • #12,936
  • Jan 21, 2010 1:48am Jan 21, 2010 1:48am
Quoting pete.alfa
What will happen E/U at 1.4060 level? up or down?

Cheers,
We will see. Still it holds, but.... If they are satisfied with dive eur//usd longers... my observation now, pin bar is rising on hourly chart...
  • #12,937
  • Edited 3:04am Jan 21, 2010 1:54am | Edited 3:04am
@ Fana - the guy is a newber here, not that different from yourself a few months back. Lets try to be a bit more tolerant - I rarely write comments but I do keep an eye around and I can't help noticing how much of a closed community the thread became with time. Which is sad IMHO - people's knowledge belongs to the world.

@Babi - did you go through the thread carefully? I know it's a lot of reading, but trust me, you will find a lot more than just the answers to your 3 questions.

P.S. YEN feels like a much better place to be today, anyone tuned there?
  • #12,938
  • Jan 21, 2010 1:54am Jan 21, 2010 1:54am
Quoting piccolo
If you have read the thread then you have seen at least 2 episodes when people have been in deep 500-600pip loss positions. Fti did give some advice on them if you can find it.

My advice is to cut loss and take a break for 2-3 days. Please read DutchAngel's signature.
Piccolo. Yes, you are right. Yesterday my boss called me to go to work, despite i had free day. I was in positions... i had to go. Itwas so TERRIBLE for myself. I have some rules and i was so unhappy not to hold them. It destroyed my mindyesterday. I wa trading until 1pm. II was succesfull and get back all i have lost. But today i have something like a debt... Thank you,i will have a rest better than lose. Still i am in green area from the beggining of the year... I will go to the wood and go shopping with my gf... I appreciate your help. Fana
  • #12,939
  • Jan 21, 2010 2:02am Jan 21, 2010 2:02am
Quoting Fana
Piccolo. Yes, you are right. Yesterday my boss called me to go to work, despite i had free day. I was in positions... i had to go. Itwas so TERRIBLE for myself. I have some rules and i was so unhappy not to hold them. It destroyed my mindyesterday. I wa trading until 1pm. II was succesfull and get back all i have lost. But today i have something like a debt... Thank you,i will have a rest better than lose. Still i am in green area from the beggining of the year... I will go to the wood and go shopping with my gf... I appreciate your help. Fana
I am glad to hear that you are still in the green.

These disturbances, called "life", happen a lot.
  • #12,940
  • Jan 21, 2010 2:31am Jan 21, 2010 2:31am
Quoting Fana
Yes...
Fana,

You should trade WITH the trend.
See 1 h chart.
Follow FTI advice. Read the thread again and again.
If necessary, translate it.

Rgs,

Textor
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