Blast from the past: December 1,2,3,4 from 2009. NOTE: I have been incorrectly counting 1 Dec 2009 as a win in my calculations up to this point. It is in fact a "valid" loss... And I did get a loss on that day, so I don't know why I messed it up. I will attempt to go back and edit my posts to account for this, but it might be a day or two.
I have also decided to mark up the old pictures with prices, result, and notes as necessary so that there is a more consistent look. I will then create a PDF document for each month that shows all the charts in one download, assuming it isn't too big. We'll see about that. Might even get it done this weekend.
Also... If you are looking at these charts saying, why isn't he a millionaire if his method is THIS GOOD... Well, I told you it needs improvement, but you might not think so the way it has been performing. But if you want to see it at the ugliest, go check out the beginning of October 2009. That was a really bad month. I think it started with 3 straight losses, a win, and at least one more loss. I'll get to posting all of that too... eventually. But if you are comfortable with what you are seeing here and want to jump in, please go take a look at that.
As always, if anybody finds a filter (indicator, or pattern, or whatever) that reliably keeps you out of the losers without giving up too many of the winners, please share.
Well... Editing back posts only works if you do it within a day of the posting. So unfortunately I can't go back and fix all of those previous posts. I think I can always go back and fix the first... And I'll probably get around to that eventually, as I think I can improve on what I put up there.
But for the record: From 1 Dec 2009 to 15 Jan 2010, leaving off Christmas and New Year's weeks, and not trading on the MPC Statement days (or the MPC Meeting Minutes release days - which didn't factor in this period) the results are 19 wins and 3 losses. If each win is 20 pips and each loss is 51 pips, our result is 380 pips won, 153 pips lost, or 227 net pips. That would be an average of 10.7 pips per trading day.
Now a lot of folks out there would look at that and say, 10 pips isn't much -- that's not so great. OH REALLY! If you risk 3% of your account on each trade you would clear around 308% (with compounding as your account grew) per year. But if the frequency of lossers can be managed, as in avoiding consecutive losses, you could arguably risk much more. Indeed, I think you can lose 3 times consecutively at the beginning of a month, suffer a couple more losses during the month and still come out with a profit. What I can't say is how oftern those kinds of bad months occur. I'm still researching it. Time will tell.
A fully qualified bar closed about an hour ago. Price advanced to a possible positive 11 pips and has fallen back a little bit from there. I was away and couldn't enter at the proper time. I've since entered a trade of my own. The qualified entry would be at 147.85 plus spread, or about 147.91 on my feed. Take profit would be 148.11. Stoploss would be 147.50. Unfortunately, my current position is 147.98. Price is advancing again now. the normal trade is just a few pips from another successful trade... I'm hoping it will press on beyond that.
Cool! The move was strong enough to power and provide me a win even though I entered late. Another 20 pip win for the method then, and a winner for my late entry too... And a quiet night to follow, as I'm done for the day. I'll post a chart when I get a chance.
TSF Mavin is indicating a bias for an up trade at this point in time. Indeed, had any of the previous three 30 minute bars managed to close up we would have buy stop orders pending... However, the market has been steadily retracing since the 12:30 am GMT breakout bar. This isn't good or bad, it just is what it is. Could be setting up an easier run to profit by pulling back now, or it could continue on to a sell signal. Time will tell. I'm watching a line of support around 148.72 which failed and is now resistance. If I were to design the perfectly comfortable trade for today from here, I'd like to see price fall to something below 148.46, and then have a rally bar up that remains under that price. That would allow us to possibly get a qualified bar with a buy stop order that can achieve take profit a point below 148.72.... But that's just me dreaming, or ummm ... thinking out loud anyway. Even if it happened it doesn't mean it would work. For now, we wait and watch.
It's my impression that if price continues down from here, it will be awhile (2-6 bars?) before things can get in alignment again to qualify a buy trade. Mind you, that doesn't mean price won't move up... it very possibly could, but the higher period TSFs are catching up with our primary TSF-19 and it might take some time for things to sort out and throw a signal. Meanwhile, we sit and wait. If this bar right now happens to close positive, and it just might, we will place our buy stop orders at the top of the hour. If not, not.
I have buy stop orders in place at 148.65. These have not triggered and price has sort of danced away for the moment. The TSF-19 has ducked under the rest of the TSF ribbon, so the method does not allow us to improve our order position even if a bar closes up from here. So we are pretty much stuck here until either the price continues down and sets up a fully qualified sell stop position, or it moves up and fills our current orders, or moves up slowly and allows the TSF-19 to recross and possibly allow us to change our order position then.... Sit and wait.
TSF Mavin posted a win for today, filling a buy stop order sometime during the 6:30am GMT bar and achieving Take Profit (20 pips) sometime during the 7 am GMT bar. This was a good example of how the method preserves a "reasonable" entry position even while the market corrects away, and without reacting to the move away and trying to catch that train only to find it turning back to us. Sometimes the market will do a full reverse, and TFS Mavin usually finds a nice safe spot to step in... ... ... unless it doesn't. But our record now stands at 20 wins and 3 losses. I'll try to get the marked up chart posted in my morning.
Today is the MPC Meeting Minutes release day. Original rules urge that you NOT TRADE today. I will be following how things evolve though, and will post a chart. It isn't the worst day to trade, especially in the current environment, but the probability of a losing trade is much higher today.
I am considering a modification of the rules that sort of accounts for the lower win percentage for days like this. I have noticed a pattern that when the announcement day is traded and lost, the next day tends to be a winner. Conversely, when the announcement day is a winner, the next day tends to be a loser... followed by a winner. So I thought, maybe I would cut my trade to one third for that day. If I win, I'll keep the trade at one third. If the subsequent day is a loser, I lose actually less than a regular trade win. But the day after that I could double my trade and I would most likely win that day, giving me a net positive at the end of the three days. If however, I lose on the first day, I'll double on the second day, and most likely come out a net winner for the two days. This is just an experiment though at this point. I haven't looked back over the last couple of years, which I would need to do to be really comfortable with it.
Wow... It is amazing how pain killers affect ones thinking. The last paragraph In my last post isn't such a great idea. It reflects a very greedy type of reasoning. Look (I need tell myself) there are unknown bad days and well known bad days. Why would I ever choose to trade on a well known bad day. Consecutive bad days are very very rare with this system. Sit out the bad days that are known and if one of those is a loser then decide if you are up to taking a bigger risk, but don't swallow an unnecessary loss.
Even then, think twice.
The really important thing to know is that an announcement day winner is often followed by a loser. So, even though we don't trade today watch to see what would have happened. If it is a winner, be very careful the next day (don't trade?). So today I'm hoping to see the method fail so I can trade again tomorrow.
Reminding all you readers that today is a NO TRADE DAY. However, it is important that we know what would have happened if a trade was placed today because the result impacts what we will do tomorrow. If today is a winner, we will sit on our hands tomorrow and do nothing.... err,ummm, well, maybe you'll do something - But it better not be this method.
So, with that disclaimer and explanation out of the way, let's take a look at how today is shaping up.
The 2am GMT bar closed and was fully qualified. So, that would normally have caused us to place a sell stop order at 148.61. Then, without filling the order price danced away, eventually surmounting resistance around 149.00 but failing to close above that number. Since then it has bounced back down and managed to "fill" our notional order, so we have a theoretical trade on that will fail if the ask price exceeds 149.12. It succeeds if the ask price reaches 148.41. So far price managed to get down to around break even, but hardly a pip beyond that. As I type this it is retracing a bit, being stuck at the near resistance level of about 148.72. What the position has in its favor at this point is that to reach the stop loss it would have to go through two resistance levels. Not impossible by any means, but not exactly a cake walk either. So it could still run to profit, and if it does, we'll sit out tomorrow as well. But if it breaches those two resistance levels and makes stop loss, tomorrow we'll be back at it.
Price is making another run on our notional take profit level. A failure here could spell the end of this attempt to run lower (or not). From a completely different perspective, a failure here would be a sort of localized double bottom, and while not always the final answer, it doesn't bode well for the current run.
Isn't it strange to be rooting for the failure of your own method? I guess life is like that sometimes. I'm done here until morning. We'll see what happens by then I'm pretty sure.
I couldn't help myself. The 7am GMT bar came pretty close to scoring a win, but couldn't do it (yet). Bid price reached 148.40, but that would mean ask price only made it to about 148.45, which is about 4 pips short. No double bottom here though, as we exceeded the previous nearby low. There has been a 5 minute bounce and price is trying again as I type. This will all resolve itself after I've gone to sleep though. I have no money on the table so I don't need to stay awake. But I will say that this and the next bar a pretty critical. It is the European Open counter trend thing I've written about before. Could be at play here and now. If so, one might expect to see the London open do a counter to the counter... and then go silent until the announcement later today. Then I think you'll see some movement. Unless there is surprise in the announcement where ever price goes after, you can expect it will come back to something of a centerline price. Players might pump the market one way or the other in the next 2-4 hours in anticipation, but odds are, without some kind of surprise, price will find itself settling somwhere in the 148.60 area (I really am guessing) within a couple of hours of the news release. ... But then there is the news of the Senate election in Mass. which could color the rest of the day after the US open.
Ah-ha -- as I've been typing, the market moved to a win for the day, which means I'll be on the sideline again tomorrow. Darn it! Oh well. Those of you who would have ignored the control specified by the method rules are rolling in a bit of dough today... Pips to YOU! Congrats. Just remember, risk reward I've specified indicate that you will have to be correct on these news day trades 3 out of 4 times to make a profit. I'm telling you, the historical trend on these days isn't THAT good. So with time, if you trade these news days with this method, it will steal from you. Let that be the word to the wise. Good Night All.
Because the 20th was a "Do Not Trade" day, and was a winner anyway, we will not trade on the 21st. Win or lose we are back to our trading on the 22nd. And a win on the 21st doesn't mean we couldn't lose on the 22nd... It would just mean the market is behaving abnormally. An average winning streak with this method is 4-6 wins. We are well beyond that now, having posted 8 consecutive wins now. Last January there wasn't a single loser, so longer streaks are possible. But with every passing day that is a winner you need to understand you are that much closer to your next loser. Losses and losing are a part of the process. With each passing day that is a loser you are that much closer to the next winner. Always remember both of these facts. And the method does sometimes produce whipsawing results too... Lose, Win, Lose... The wins don't all come in streaks, just mostly. So, here is the chart - The take profit line is hard to see because it is right around the 365 EMA line I keep on the chart as a reference (it isn't part of the TSF Mavin Method).
This is a DO NOT TRADE Day. I am looking at the TSF Mavin method for the day only as a matter of record. Original rules do allow for trading today, but based on my experience I am not trading the day after an announcement day that was a winning trade as a possible addition to the rules.
With that out of the way... TSF Mavin is showing a bias for a buy position at this time. Should the current bar close at break even or better it will be a fully qualified bar that would normally be the signal to open a buy stop position just above the high of the fully qualified bar.
TSF Mavin method (which probably should not be traded today), has a fully qualified bar that formed at the close of the 2am GMT bar. A buy stop order would have been placed at 148.96 (just below major resistance) plus the spread, so 149.01 on my IBFX feed. Take profit would be 149.21, stoploss at 149.50. Since posting the qualified bar, price has run away from those levels. We'll see how it develops. For me, a loss on the notional trade today would indicate a pretty high probability trade tomorrow -- one that I might be willing to place a larger stake on... but that would be tomorrow. For now we wait and watch.
