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GbpUsd 5 min breakout

  • #521
  • Jan 20, 2010 3:21am Jan 20, 2010 3:21am
Anyone trading today?
  • #522
  • Jan 20, 2010 3:59am Jan 20, 2010 3:59am
Quoting Bobcat2
Anyone trading today?
yup, got a looser due to news today
Never whishing, always trading.
  • #523
  • Jan 20, 2010 3:59am Jan 20, 2010 3:59am
Quoting Bobcat2
Anyone trading today?
Hi bob,
I was in.
after the move downward and reached +22 pip, i moved my stop loss to BE point, cause i noticed that there will be some important news at 11:30 GMT+2 and it tend to be positive (against my position).
my BE point was reached seconds after the news was released.
good for this day, no losses

tomorrow still exist

cheers
  • #524
  • Jan 20, 2010 4:20am Jan 20, 2010 4:20am
Hi Guys,

According to the system we should all be still in and not stopped out yet... Even the previous high wasn't breached this morning after the news... I am still in but closed my position on the first spike of news and re entered a position at 1.6301 after it stabilized. I am reasonably happy that the down move will continue and that I managed to get in at 'better value'...well fingers crossed anyway.... My SL will be placed at 1.6231..(5 pips above the upper box limit) Hova, how were you stopped out...Price never breached the opposite side of the box??????? (not yet anyway) For what its worth I think cable is headed south.............
  • #525
  • Jan 20, 2010 4:25am Jan 20, 2010 4:25am
Hi Again Guys,

Just wanted to share something with you that I read a while ago.. Each day if you draw your fib lines from the previous daily high and low you will be amazed how often these level are respected... Even this morning the news spike retraced to 61.8 almost to the pip. If you have a look back on your charts you will see what I mean... I know its not enough to trade these level alone but it can be very helpful when determining SL and TP levels.... Good Luck to all......

Blinkers.............
  • #526
  • Jan 20, 2010 9:42am Jan 20, 2010 9:42am
I moving SL to 6310 (just under BE) I feel that if it can break that level it might continue up, otherwise it will break down....
  • #527
  • Jan 20, 2010 12:30pm Jan 20, 2010 12:30pm
Hi Guys,

I would really like to try and make this method work consistently in the long term but unfortunately there's not enough experienced traders members of this thread to point us in the right direction..Also, for those of us in here, IMHO we are not nearly active or progressive enough to bounce different ideas off each other to improve it.. It's a pity Cain wasn't available to participate a bit more as he probably knows this system better than any of us...Anyway, I am gonna focus on one of my other systems for a while and put this one on the back burner... If I get back to this anytime soon I will post here any findings that I may have, but I won't be posting here daily anymore.. By the way Intel, I am still looking into fixed odds and will PM you if I uncover anything worth sharing.. I wish all you the very best with your trading... Good Luck......

Blinkers............................
  • #528
  • Jan 20, 2010 4:12pm Jan 20, 2010 4:12pm
Quoting fxblinkers
Hi Guys,

I would really like to try and make this method work consistently in the long term but unfortunately there's not enough experienced traders members of this thread to point us in the right direction..Also, for those of us in here, IMHO we are not nearly active or progressive enough to bounce different ideas off each other to improve it.. It's a pity Cain wasn't available to participate a bit more as he probably knows this system better than any of us...Anyway, I am gonna focus on one of my other systems for a while and put this one on...

I wish you all the pips you can handle
  • #529
  • Jan 21, 2010 5:38am Jan 21, 2010 5:38am
Quoting fxblinkers
Hi Again Guys,

Just wanted to share something with you that I read a while ago.. Each day if you draw your fib lines from the previous daily high and low you will be amazed how often these level are respected... Even this morning the news spike retraced to 61.8 almost to the pip. If you have a look back on your charts you will see what I mean... I know its not enough to trade these level alone but it can be very helpful when determining SL and TP levels.... Good Luck to all......

Blinkers.............
Blinkers you have discovered one of the secrets to success in trading. Combine those fibs areas(which actually indicate likely congestions zones) with a pivot indicator (particularly on GU, EJ). Watch how price bounces of those daily lows and highs, imput the weekly lows and highs. Take your trend bias when price closes below or above daily/weekly high or lows. Draw your fibs wait for price to retrace and watch how price reacts of those areas in the direction of the trend particularly when you have pivot points around the fib areas. You would be amazed at your accuracy in identfying turning points in the market to go in the direction of the trend. Or for counter trend trades you can fade the trend off the daily/weekly highs or lows, Good risk to reward and always high probability that price will bounce of such areas .
LISTEN TO MR FUNDAMENTAL AND MR TECHNICAL
  • #530
  • Jan 21, 2010 1:44pm Jan 21, 2010 1:44pm
Quoting okehiedon
Blinkers you have discovered one of the secrets to success in trading. Combine those fibs areas(which actually indicate likely congestions zones) with a pivot indicator (particularly on GU, EJ). Watch how price bounces of those daily lows and highs, imput the weekly lows and highs. Take your trend bias when price closes below or above daily/weekly high or lows. Draw your fibs wait for price to retrace and watch how price reacts of those areas in the direction of the trend particularly when you have pivot points around the fib areas. You would be...

I also agree. I have started watching the pivot areas with this system, and it works good as a filter. Perhaps it's not enough for filtering out bad trades, but it certainly helps.


Archie
  • #531
  • Jan 24, 2010 4:16pm Jan 24, 2010 4:16pm
Fairly quiet lately here in the thread. How was trading for everyone on Friday? My setup was poor for the original rules, but reached my lower TP on the more cautious tweak of the system.

I think that the current TP is too large sometimes, depending on price action and BO-box-size. I have been experimenting with smaller TP, and I think that a more flexible TP and SL can be good.


Regards

Archie
  • #532
  • Jan 24, 2010 7:37pm Jan 24, 2010 7:37pm
Quoting Archie
Fairly quiet lately here in the thread. How was trading for everyone on Friday? My setup was poor for the original rules, but reached my lower TP on the more cautious tweak of the system.

I think that the current TP is too large sometimes, depending on price action and BO-box-size. I have been experimenting with smaller TP, and I think that a more flexible TP and SL can be good.


Regards

Archie
Archie,
Please let us know what you are using for your TP and SL. And, what has been your track record trading this waY?

Thanks,
BC
  • #533
  • Jan 25, 2010 3:07am Jan 25, 2010 3:07am
Quoting Bobcat2
Archie,
Please let us know what you are using for your TP and SL. And, what has been your track record trading this waY?

Thanks,
BC
Hi BC,

I am forward testing both the original rules and a somewhat more conservative tweak. The original settings have been profitable, but I think that the TP is too high many times. Most of the times one can reach a TP of the box size, but not a TP including the buffers. Good weeks tend to be in favour of the high TP, but when things are more rough, like last week, the smaller TP is a better choice. I have noticed the same thing on other BO-systems.

The question that arise is then about the SL. Well, here I am testing both a SL as large as the box-size and one that equals the low of the box (that is including the buffer of 10 pips). In the last case the RR is not very good, but so far it has been more profitable.

I also think that closing the pending orders at 23 GMT the next day is far too long. I often hope for a breakout during the first hours in the morning. I get more cautious when the NY open approaches, and in the afternoon/evening I often try to get out of the market. If I have pending orders I most often close them, but I let open orders run to TP or SL most of the times. I don't think this is a purely mechanical system. It can be, and I often let my trades run without intervention, but I also watch S/R-levels, news and the overall trend. I think that it needs some more tweaking when it comes to filters.

When it comes to MM and profits, I double the lot size after a loss (according to the original rules), and keep track of my record in units. One pip equals one unit, and a double lot size gives two units for one pip. So far the original system has yielded about 150 pips and my tweak about 300 pips during January.

Would be nice with input from others, who have traded this system for a while (input on filters, tweaks etc.)

Regards

Archie
  • #534
  • Feb 3, 2010 6:42pm Feb 3, 2010 6:42pm
What is it these days.....thread after thread are dying on their feet... By the looks of things this one has now been binned too...anyway, just in case any of you guys are still popping in here, I still like this method as a guide but as I have been saying during Nov and Dec there are going to be times when we it just downright won't work...(like now) I only trade this on certain days (with very small positions) but only alongside my other rules and also depending on PA at the time... I do think that wider stops are sometimes needed but if you manage the trade correctly it is possible to do ok from it...IMHO... Anyway...happy trading to all................
  • #535
  • Apr 9, 2010 6:49pm Apr 9, 2010 6:49pm
Hello, I have been watching this thread for a few months now, as well as watching my charts on TradeStation. I have an indicator which works great. It simply takes the range between 0200 and 0210 and then plots lines with a 14 pip upper buffer zone, and a 10 pip lower buffer. It then plots profit targets of the total range above and below.

I love TS for futures, but was not happy with their Forex fills. I have opened a GFT Dealbook 360 account, and need help with an indicator.

This is what I was using on TS:

If Time >= 0200 and time <= 0210 then

Value1 = Highest (High, 3) + .0014;
Plot1( Value1, "Upper Entry" ) ;

If Time >= 0200 and time <= 0210 then

Value2 = Lowest (Low, 3) - .001;
Plot2 ( Value2, "Lower Entry");

If Time >= 0200 and time <= 0210 then

Value3 = Value1 - Value2;

If Time >= 0200 and time <= 0210 then

Value4 = Value1 + Value3;
Plot4 (Value4, "High Target");

If Time >= 0200 and time <= 0210 then

Value5 = Value2 - Value3;
Plot5 (Value5, "Low Target");

It isn't the cleanest code, but it works for plotting 4 lines.

If anyone can help me with Dealbook360/Chart Studio, I would really appreciate it.

Thank you.

I have attached a pic of what I have now on TradeStation. Red lines are entry points, and blue lines are profit targets.
Attached Image
  • #536
  • Sep 1, 2010 10:51am Sep 1, 2010 10:51am
i backtested the original system and in the last 5 months it doesnt seem to work anymore.

is there some new progress on this topic or just no interest from the community?
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #537
  • Sep 1, 2010 4:01pm Sep 1, 2010 4:01pm
Hello birdland

Thanks for waking up this thread.
I back-tested the original method and it looks barely profitable for me (profit factor about 1.15 long term)

Using 7am london time is not profitable.
Using 8am london time IS profitable with the given profit factor

Interesting to note is that if you take only the first trade in the day the profit factor is only 1.08
That implies that the second trade is more profitable and maybe one should take only the second trade missing the first entirely.
The profit factor from the second trade should be about 1.21, but I can't test that easily now. All results are using the first 15 minutes of the hour. Hope that helps. I tested this from year 2001 till now.
  • #538
  • Sep 3, 2010 11:49am Sep 3, 2010 11:49am
Quoting redcaesar
Hello birdland

Thanks for waking up this thread.
I back-tested the original method and it looks barely profitable for me (profit factor about 1.15 long term)

Using 7am london time is not profitable.
Using 8am london time IS profitable with the given profit factor

Interesting to note is that if you take only the first trade in the day the profit factor is only 1.08
That implies that the second trade is more profitable and maybe one should take only the second trade missing the first entirely.
The profit factor from the second trade should be about...
thanks a lot!
their are similar to my results.
also from the logic the system was "too easy" to work in the long run.
it was good optimized for the short trading period.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #539
  • Sep 3, 2010 3:22pm Sep 3, 2010 3:22pm
hi
There are many systems set up around the London opening hour.
One thing to note - you will get probably quite high slippage trying to trade this. It may easily consume the wins, especially on the first trade where the profit factor is so low and the market quite wild in the opening hour of London.
I also did check other pairs, EURUSD had profit factor of 1.1 (1.05 on the first trade), USDCHF was something like that too.
GBPJPY, EURGBP were not profitable (I expected this for EURGBP).

So I think the best is to take only the second trade on GBPUSD risking 1-2% of the account. I computed the Kelly criterion and it was about 8%, so risking everything up to 4% looks ok, as long as you can bear the drawdown. That this strategy didn't work in the last year is probably a good thing, as the people who used it are probably gone from this strategy. Profit factor of 1.2 is still very good in the long run!
  • #540
  • Last Post: Sep 13, 2010 6:19pm Sep 13, 2010 6:19pm
Quoting Cain
I want to share the system that I started trading this November. I'm getting some very good results, I got 720,6 pips trading GBPUSD (this value includes the typical spread of 2,5 pips, I trade with Alpari Uk).

Here it is:

- Draw a box over the 8.00 and the 8.10 candles on a clean 5 min chart (GMT +1, for more information on timezone conversion go to http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/converter.html).

- Place a buffer of 10 pips over the high and low of the box.

- Put two pending orders, one buy stop at the high of the box...

hi cain

are you still trading this method ?
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