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  • #61
  • Dec 12, 2005 7:25pm Dec 12, 2005 7:25pm
Hi all,

I've also gone ahead and purchased the software. It's been running on my PC for a little over two weeks and so far the results have been at best mediocre.

To get familiar with the software and the reports it generates on a nightly basis (if you live in the Americas), I decided to employ 1) the simple predicted highs and lows as resistance/support lines and 2) use the predicted up/down from VantagePoint's Index Indicator to give me a second opinion on the market direction my usual analysis would give me. After a while, I started to notice that these predicted highs and lows often merely correspond to a significant high or low on the day before and that the market often blows right through the predicted low/high on the other end.

As Fiji has mentioned, the Index Indicator takes information from four other neural networks, namely the Predicted high, Predicted low, Predicted short trend and Predicted medium trend plus some other market data to arrive at either a 0 for downtrend or a 1 for an uptrend (any other number is rare). This indicator also has been wrong as many times as it's been right. What's worse is that it has actually managed to throw me off my usual trading by having me second guess about trends that my usual market analysis detected.

What is a little disconcerting is that I expected the software to behave rather well during a week such as last where there were no significant economic news to speak off that could explain wrong predictions.

While I fully realize that two weeks worth of data does not compare to Fiji's eight years of using this s/w, the predictions so far have unfortunately been no better than a coin toss. I'm now in the process of trying to filter out VantagePoint's predictions through qualitative analysis on the data as it stands on its own as well as using other markets' data (e.g. Dollar Index). After that, I will have to spend a bit of time trying to incorporate it into my style of trading.

I'd be glad to hear how other are faring with the s/w so far,
Julian
  • #62
  • Edited 7:30pm Dec 12, 2005 7:29pm | Edited 7:30pm
I should point out that my comments are based on just these four:

EURUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, GBPUSD
  • #63
  • Dec 12, 2005 7:53pm Dec 12, 2005 7:53pm
[quote]
Quoting bluemeasure
Hi all,

I've also gone ahead and purchased the software. It's been running on my PC for a little over two weeks and so far the results have been at best mediocre.
It amazes me how negative you sound after an amazingly short period of time when developing a new system. I don't understand how you can expect to adapt to a suite of five indicators in two weeks nor how you can report mediocre results unless you are talking about your own trading abilites. Sorry if that sounds harsh but I think it is realistic.

Quote
To get familiar with the software and the reports it generates on a nightly basis (if you live in the Americas), I decided to employ 1) the simple predicted highs and lows as resistance/support lines and 2) use the predicted up/down from VantagePoint's Index Indicator to give me a second opinion on the market direction my usual analysis would give me. After a while, I started to notice that these predicted highs and lows often merely correspond to a significant high or low on the day before and that the market often blows right through the predicted low/high on the other end.
I think using the index indicator as a second opinion is insufficient to confirm market direction. To me a significant penetration (more than 25 pips) of the high or the low is a notable directional confirmation. The market seldom blows through a predicted high or low for any substantial distance without it telling you something about market direction.

Quote
As Fiji has mentioned, the Index Indicator takes information from four other neural networks, namely the Predicted high, Predicted low, Predicted short trend and Predicted medium trend plus some other market data to arrive at either a 0 for downtrend or a 1 for an uptrend (any other number is rare). This indicator also has been wrong as many times as it's been right. What's worse is that it has actually managed to throw me off my usual trading by having me second guess about trends that my usual market analysis detected.
I don't remember indicating that but if I did I don't recall saying that. My understanding, while it may be incorrect, is that the index indicator is a neural network that does it's own independent analysis. I never used the index indicator as my only clue to market direction. I used all five indicators plus a lot of observation of market activity on different time frames to determine the likely behavior of the market. Perhaps this is where the difference occurs with trading results. That combined with a sense of four hour, daily, and weekly trends, consolidation, and reversals.

Quote
What is a little disconcerting is that I expected the software to behave rather well during a week such as last where there were no significant economic news to speak off that could explain wrong predictions.
Personally I've been busy with the PF lately and cannot comment on recent market activity. My guess is that I'd have made money. I did not find that VP was terribly wrong or right with relationship to news releases but did find sufficient tradable information to do well.

Quote
While I fully realize that two weeks worth of data does not compare to Fiji's eight years of using this s/w, the predictions so far have unfortunately been no better than a coin toss. I'm now in the process of trying to filter out VantagePoint's predictions through qualitative analysis on the data as it stands on its own as well as using other markets' data (e.g. Dollar Index). After that, I will have to spend a bit of time trying to incorporate it into my style of trading.
This does not make any sense to me at all. I've never seen a week go by without statistically signficant opportunities and that was only with six markets. If you take the two years or so of history, create a spreadsheet, and run a statistical report on the predictions for highs and lows you'll find information that is statistically relevant. That is where I began my work in developing that simple system. I wanted to see what stop sizes made sense and what kind of targets made sense. Without that information I'd probably not have extracted enough data to make a sensible start. It was also from that information that I determined that the index indicator on its own was not sufficient to determine trend.

FT
  • #64
  • Dec 12, 2005 8:15pm Dec 12, 2005 8:15pm
Fiji,

I am merely reporting my findings so far after two weeks use of the s/w; nowhere do I say the s/w is "useless" or any such thing; on the contrary, I clearly state I am working at understanding it better with the expectation of incorporating it into my style of trading. I fully realize that just two weeks is not enough time to fully exploit all it has to offer, however using just basic information such as market direction should have (in my mind) given me better results. If you or others have suggestions on something I might be missing based on your experience, I am all ears. We'd all love to hear constructive criticism - that will go a lot further than you flaming me for sharing my observations.

Also, I apologize for attributing that quote to you. The info on the Index indicator came out of the manual.
  • #65
  • Dec 12, 2005 8:19pm Dec 12, 2005 8:19pm
VP arrived today is now installed. Playing with it for the next few weeks, then will try some live trades after I see some success in demo. I went with the CSI data feed. Focusing on the EURUSD and the GBPJPY first.

FYI from the fine print found at: http://www.tradertech.com/disclaimer.asp

... THE PERCENT ACCURACY STATISTICS For FOREX MARKETS WERE COMPUTED ON OUT-OF-SAMPLE PRICE DATA FROM 07/15/2004 TO 03/25/2005 FOR THE GBP-USD, EUR-USD and USD-CHF MARKETs, from 7/15/04 to 4/1/05 for the aud-jpy, gbp-chf, gbp-jpy and usd-nzd markets, from 7/15/04 to 3/11/05 for the usd-jpy market, from 6/1/05 to 8/1/05 for the eur-cad market, and from 7/1/04 to 8/1/05 for the aud-usd, eur-gbp, eur-jpy, and usd-cad markets. ...

THE NEURAL INDEX PERCENT ACCURACY STATISTIC FOR EACH VANTAGEPOINT VERSION 6.3 Market IS AS FOLLOWS:
...
GBP-USD: 77.2,
EUR-USD: 72.2,
USD-CHF: 75,
AUD-JPY: 78,
GBP-CHF: 75.8,
GBP-JPY: 80.1,
USD-NZD: 76.3,
USD-JPY:72.5,
EUR-CAD: 76.7,
AUD-USD: 73.7,
EUR-GBP: 72.6,
EUR-JPY: 77.2,
USD-CAD: 72.3.
  • #66
  • Dec 12, 2005 8:26pm Dec 12, 2005 8:26pm
[quote]
Quoting spudbox

... THE PERCENT ACCURACY STATISTICS For FOREX MARKETS WERE COMPUTED ON OUT-OF-SAMPLE PRICE DATA FROM 07/15/2004 TO 03/25/2005 FOR THE GBP-USD, EUR-USD and USD-CHF MARKETs, from 7/15/04 to 4/1/05 for the aud-jpy, gbp-chf, gbp-jpy and usd-nzd markets, from 7/15/04 to 3/11/05 for the usd-jpy market, from 6/1/05 to 8/1/05 for the eur-cad market, and from 7/1/04 to 8/1/05 for the aud-usd, eur-gbp, eur-jpy, and usd-cad markets. ...

THE NEURAL INDEX PERCENT ACCURACY STATISTIC FOR EACH VANTAGEPOINT VERSION 6.3 Market IS AS FOLLOWS:
...
GBP-USD: 77.2,
EUR-USD: 72.2,
USD-CHF: 75,
AUD-JPY: 78,
GBP-CHF: 75.8,
GBP-JPY: 80.1,
USD-NZD: 76.3,
USD-JPY:72.5,
EUR-CAD: 76.7,
AUD-USD: 73.7,
EUR-GBP: 72.6,
EUR-JPY: 77.2,
USD-CAD: 72.3.
Be sure to realize that the accuracy is measured only on the 10 day PMA of closes. If the PMA is shown four days out to be positive or negative there is approximately 70 to 80 percent chance that the close of the market will have moved in the direction of the prediction. Also bear in mind the sample data cannot go back further than any recent retraining of the market. In other words the software you get today is trained for a time period and as market conditions change VP may retrain the neural nets every couple of years or so.

FT
  • #67
  • Dec 12, 2005 8:46pm Dec 12, 2005 8:46pm
Quoting bluemeasure
Fiji,

I am merely reporting my findings so far after two weeks use of the s/w; nowhere do I say the s/w is "useless" or any such thing; on the contrary, I clearly state I am working at understanding it better with the expectation of incorporating it into my style of trading. I fully realize that just two weeks is not enough time to fully exploit all it has to offer, however using just basic information such as market direction should have (in my mind) given me better results. If you or others have suggestions on something I might be missing based on your experience, I am all ears. We'd all love to hear constructive criticism - that will go a lot further than you flaming me for sharing my observations.

Also, I apologize for attributing that quote to you. The info on the Index indicator came out of the manual.
Are you sure you are not talking about the strength indicator? It has been a long time since I looked at the documentation but I'd somehow gotten to the point where I believed the strength indicator got its number from the other neural nets.

I was actually attempting to give you constructive criticizm. To me trading psychology is just as important during system development as during trading. How I set up my thinking environment is more important than the tools I'm using to assist my thinking. If after two weeks I found myself stopping to report to a bunch of other traders who also just bought the software that the system is not doing any better than a coin toss -- I'd be polluting my thinking environment (as well as that of others) and would tend to delay or even prevent myself from pulling a decent system out of the tools available. I'd have to be pretty discouraged to dump that on a bunch of other people who also just bought the system and mess with their heads as well.

In other words I personally would diminsh the liklihood of creating a decent system out of something were I to find myself posting subjective comments like you did. To me that is more of a reflection on my own thinking (trading ability) than it is on the tools I'm using. If I was that negative after two weeks of observing the system -- I'd quit until I found a way to change my first impression of the system either through additional information or by letting my creative abilites recover by giving myself a different way to look at the data.

Also regarding your comment about supplying useful input. My last post to you was full of relevant information. My apologies if it is useless to you. Hopefully someone will benefit.

FT
  • #68
  • Dec 12, 2005 9:02pm Dec 12, 2005 9:02pm
Quoting bluemeasure
I should point out that my comments are based on just these four:

EURUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, GBPUSD
Incidentally I found that I was extra careful with jpy and found that it was the least reliable and most likely to be wrong in daily s/r predictions.

FT
  • #69
  • Dec 12, 2005 9:05pm Dec 12, 2005 9:05pm
Quoting fijitrader
Are you sure you are not talking about the strength indicator? It has been a long time since I looked at the documentation but I'd somehow gotten to the point where I believed the strength indicator got its number from the other neural nets.
No, just the Index Indicator.

Quoting fijitrader
I was actually attempting to give you constructive criticizm. To me trading psychology is just as important during system development as during trading.
Yes, and that is why I'm going back to further analyze how I can best utilize the s/w's reports. As I mentioned, the reports often conflicted with my own analysis and having a trader second guess himself doesn't make for good trading. Because you've been using the s/w for a long time, it might have become part of your style of trading (?).

Quoting fijitrader
How I set up my thinking environment is more important than the tools I'm using to assist my thinking. If after two weeks I found myself stopping to report to a bunch of other traders who also just bought the software that the system is not doing any better than a coin toss -- I'd be polluting my thinking environment (as well as that of others) and would tend to delay or even prevent myself from pulling a decent system out of the tools available. I'd have to be pretty discouraged to dump that on a bunch of other people who also just bought the system and mess with their heads as well.
So it's the coin toss comment that got your nickers in a bunch? Statistically, these were my findings. I'm not hoping to "pollute" anything -- on the contrary I am hoping for a lively exchange of ideas. Again, in no way shape or form am I giving up on the s/w. People should just be aware that there is more to it than just installing it and having the success rate you've described, especially if they haven't got the substantial trading experience you have. Would you agree?

Quoting fijitrader
If I was that negative after two weeks of observing the system -- I'd quit until I found a way to change my first impression of the system either through additional information or by letting my creative abilites recover by giving myself a different way to look at the data.
Absolutely, and this reflects the last paragraph of my initial message re. spending time doing some analysis.

Quoting fijitrader
Also regarding your comment about supplying useful input. My last post to you was full of relevant information. My apologies if it is useless to you. Hopefully someone will benefit.
FT
Well, when I mentioned that I'm doing further analysis and taking the results of other markets into account to refine the reports, you said this makes "no sense to you at all". Essentially, I'd like to find out when the data is most likely to be right, so that some days there may be no trades at all. It might be when the the DX is pointing in the same direction...or when the trend numbers / strength indicator / etc. are showing a trend one way or the other. This goes beyond just looking at whether all indicator agree as to the market direction (short term, medium term and index indicators).
  • #70
  • Dec 12, 2005 9:36pm Dec 12, 2005 9:36pm
Quoting fijitrader
Incidentally I found that I was extra careful with jpy and found that it was the least reliable and most likely to be wrong in daily s/r predictions.

FT
Agreed. The USDJPY predictions threw me for a loop a few times over the last few days. Incidentally, speaking of markets, the s/w has been great for option plays on the Q's lately (Nasdaq:QQQQ)
  • #71
  • Edited 9:44pm Dec 12, 2005 9:38pm | Edited 9:44pm
[quote]
Quoting bluemeasure
Yes, and that is why I'm going back to further analyze how I can best utilize the s/w's reports. As I mentioned, the reports often conflicted with my own analysis and having a trader second guess himself doesn't make for good trading. Because you've been using the s/w for a long time, it might have become part of your style of trading (?).
Not sure what you are getting at with your last question in the paragraph.

Quote
So it's the coin toss comment that got your nickers in a bunch?
Actually the way you state your case it sounds like the software is at fault when it is actually your system that is at fault. When you make statements that point people in the wrong direction I think it is detrimental to other traders who come along and read what you say because it is misleading. You stated that you expected something from the software that it did not give you. That is not the softwares fault. It is when your expectation of what an indicator should or should not do or your expectation of what the market should or should not do that gets you in trouble. VP has been spitting out the same sort of results for years. Mediocre is how you should describe the system you are using -- not the results from the software.


Quote
Statistically, these were my findings. I'm not hoping to "pollute" anything -- on the contrary I am hoping for a lively exchange of ideas.
Then you should be pleased with my comments. They are lively and I can make the more so if you like.

Quote
Again, in no way shape or form am I giving up on the s/w. People should just be aware that there is more to it than just installing it and having the success rate you've described, especially if they haven't got the substantial trading experience you have. Would you agree?
I didn't think you were giving up. I thought you could use a little coaching as to how to be more constructive in your approach to encouraging others to get the most out of their software too. I think getting the kind of results I got comes from adhering to some important guidelines. One of them is psychological. I've been trying to coach you on that issue. It does not seem to be sinking it but someday it may. Either way I don't want anyone to develop unrealistic expectations nor do I want anyone becoming prematurely negative. I thought your post had the capacity to prematurely discourage some traders. If you had unrealistic expectations or just different expectations than what you had -- it was your expectations that disappointed you. Not the software.

Quote
Well, when I mentioned that I'm doing further analysis and taking the results of other markets into account to refine the reports, you said this makes "no sense to you at all".
What I said made no sense was the idea that there was no statistical advantage.

Quote
Essentially, I'd like to find out when the data is most likely to be right, so that some days there may be no trades at all. It might be when the the DX is pointing in the same direction...or when the trend numbers / strength indicator / etc. are showing a trend one way or the other. This goes beyond just looking at whether all indicator agree as to the market direction (short term, medium term and index indicators).
I think simplicity is an important key. First what are your trading rules and from what information (or basis) did you develop them from? I can probably be most useful by first helping you with that.

FT
  • #72
  • Dec 12, 2005 10:26pm Dec 12, 2005 10:26pm
Hi Fiji,

Thanks for the reply. Sorry it took awhile to reply. My equity curve is getting improving as I fine tune the system. It would be some time before any neural framework is introduced. I am still working on an exit strategy that I will be asking the forums advice/ideas on in thread that I will be posting soon. That's if I can't find it with the search feature.

As far as the lotto goes, I have a better chance packaging up the software and selling a downloadable version for 19.95 per download. The only reason I pointed that out is it took randomness and out performed random picks and nothing more. So taking that type of system and applying it to price itself. I feel that it should be somewhat accurate in it's measure.

Once again,
Thank you for the detailed response to post. I appreciate it.
Pip Hunter
  • #73
  • Dec 12, 2005 10:58pm Dec 12, 2005 10:58pm
Quoting pip_hunter
Hi Fiji,

Thanks for the reply. Sorry it took awhile to reply. My equity curve is getting improving as I fine tune the system. It would be some time before any neural framework is introduced. I am still working on an exit strategy that I will be asking the forums advice/ideas on in thread that I will be posting soon. That's if I can't find it with the search feature.

As far as the lotto goes, I have a better chance packaging up the software and selling a downloadable version for 19.95 per download. The only reason I pointed that out is it took randomness and out performed random picks and nothing more. So taking that type of system and applying it to price itself. I feel that it should be somewhat accurate in it's measure.

Once again,
Thank you for the detailed response to post. I appreciate it.
Pip Hunter
Cool. I agree that finding patterns that are non-random from lottery picks is an accomplishment and a rather fascinating one at that. Otherwise your work sounds pretty interesting. Did you check out Juricks software?

FT
  • #74
  • Dec 12, 2005 11:28pm Dec 12, 2005 11:28pm
I installed VantagePoint just over a week ago and am now starting to explore it more fully.

On the Predicted Neural Index, my book (p 59) explains that it is based on a comparison of the predicted and actual 3-day moving average to indicate whether the market is expected to top or bottom.

For the Strength Index: this is a weighted value using the Predicted Next Day Highs and Lows, plus the Predicted Short and Medium Term Trends.(p 60).

So far I've found it very helpful at picking turns ahead of the Traders Secret Code Method recently offered by Mark McRae, or the Vegas Tunnel 4H method both of which have real value.

Previously I've found that entry lots plus stop losses set at the 2% risk factor far too often seemed to produce losing trades. I'm looking at Dirk Du Toit's "Bird Watching in Lion Country" as a somewhat different platform with multiple entries and multiple exits, using wider stops (mental for him) — made more feasible by the projections of VP. His work has a similarity to Robert Lichello's "How To Make $1,000,000 In The Stock Market Automatically" (revised 1992) which uses controlled buying in a falling market and selling in a rising market. It does seem that much of the relatively tedious fundamental data gathering previously required may be reduced by the use of the VP neural networks.

The pudding may have to be proved for each individual, as should be expected, but as Louis Mendelsohn writes in his book "Trend Forecasting" "A neural network is excellent at applying intermarket data (as well as fundamental data) to market forecasting".

I agree with FT that all of the 5 VP parameters need to be scanned as an adjunct to pulling the entry trigger.

Good trading and a holy and enjoyable Christmas Season to all.

Trinity
  • #75
  • Dec 13, 2005 3:14am Dec 13, 2005 3:14am
Quote
Trinity: On the Predicted Neural Index, my book (p 59) explains that it is based on a comparison of the predicted and actual 3-day moving average to indicate whether the market is expected to top or bottom.
Right that brings it back for me. Being that the PTS is a 5 day and the PTM is a 10 day the Index neural indicator stands on it's own set of values and is therefore independent of other neural nets.

Quote
For the Strength Index: this is a weighted value using the Predicted Next Day Highs and Lows, plus the Predicted Short and Medium Term Trends.(p 60).
Thanks for confirming that! My memory hasn't completely turned to mush.

Quote
So far I've found it very helpful at picking turns ahead of the Traders Secret Code Method recently offered by Mark McRae, or the Vegas Tunnel 4H method both of which have real value.
Are you still talking about the Index indicator or some other signal or set of signals?

Quote
Previously I've found that entry lots plus stop losses set at the 2% risk factor far too often seemed to produce losing trades.
Based on what rules?

Quote
I'm looking at Dirk Du Toit's "Bird Watching in Lion Country" as a somewhat different platform with multiple entries and multiple exits, using wider stops (mental for him) — made more feasible by the projections of VP. His work has a similarity to Robert Lichello's "How To Make $1,000,000 In The Stock Market Automatically" (revised 1992) which uses controlled buying in a falling market and selling in a rising market. It does seem that much of the relatively tedious fundamental data gathering previously required may be reduced by the use of the VP neural networks.
Interesting twist replacing fundamental analysis with NN intermarket analysis.

Quote
The pudding may have to be proved for each individual, as should be expected, but as Louis Mendelsohn writes in his book "Trend Forecasting" "A neural network is excellent at applying intermarket data (as well as fundamental data) to market forecasting".
I agree with FT that all of the 5 VP parameters need to be scanned as an adjunct to pulling the entry trigger.
Personally I like VP's action best when the markets are turning on the 4hr/daily/weekly and mixed signals indicate sideways action. This seems to be best for day trading due to the market tending to test both the predicted highs and lows which often gives the best (most predictable) intraday trends.

Thanks Trinity for your input.

FT
  • #76
  • Dec 13, 2005 3:55am Dec 13, 2005 3:55am
My Quote: So far I've found it (VP) very helpful at picking turns ahead of the Traders Secret Code Method recently offered by Mark McRae, or the Vegas Tunnel 4H method both of which have real value.

FT: Are you still talking about the Index indicator or some other signal or set of signals?

Response: I'm looking at the major five VP predictive parameters, plus the angle and distance apart of the predicted 5 & 10 day MA's versus the actual MA's.

My Quote: Previously I've found that entry lots plus stop losses set at the 2% risk factor far too often seemed to produce losing trades.

FT: Based on what rules?

Response: I have had a tendency to jump in just before a signal is really completed — say an MA longer term XO plus a penetration of a displaced MA channel, and perhaps an RSI change of direction or 50% XO. This should be on a retrace within the major trend. Using a lot size and perhaps a 30 pip SL to equate to about 2% risk — that is when the SL seems too often to be hit.
That is why I am testing the larger SL favoured by Du Toit with the small 1:2 gearing of multiple entries and exits as part of one "trade".

I prefer less chart watching, and longer trades which VP appears to support. Yes it can be useful for the intraday action to which you refer.

Re fundamental data: after referring to specific inputs into VP's analysis, Mendelsohn remarks "Additionally, fundamental data inputs can be incorporated" for preprocessing to facilitate learning.
(His book p 95).

Trinity
  • #77
  • Dec 13, 2005 4:12am Dec 13, 2005 4:12am
Quoting fijitrader
Right that brings it back for me. Being that the PTS is a 5 day and the PTM is a 10 day the Index neural indicator stands on it's own set of values and is therefore independent of other neural nets.
Fiji,

This is from the "Trend Forecasting" book by L.Mendelsohn that came with the software (p.74):

"The first four networks at the primary level of the network hierarchy make independent market forecasts of the High, Low, Short-Term trend and Medium-Term trend. These forecasts are then used as inputs into the fifth network along with other target market and intermarket data inputs, at the secondary level of the network hierarchy, to predict market Turning Points." The corresponding diagram on p.75 shows: Neural Index - Predicted turning points.

This is what me initially try to simply use the Neural Index to confirm my analysis of an up- or downtrend in the market since my understanding from the above is that it's a "bottom line" type output.

The Strength Index, on the other hand, is a weighted composite of the High, Low, Short-Term trend and Medium-Term indicators. I'm still looking for a way to make good use of this index.

I see there are tsunami warnings for Fiji. Let's hope everything will be ok. Take care.
  • #78
  • Dec 13, 2005 7:45am Dec 13, 2005 7:45am
Hello...........

As a novice trader who has been following this thread from the beginning, I would like to add my "2 cents". First, thank you to FT, blue, trinity and others for their comments; it's this kind of dialogue that really enhances the learning experience for all of us.

Now..........after first reading FT's review and rereading his description of the system he put together to trade with VP software, I decided to do something similar using 'free' predictions available at a website no doubt known to many. The results were quite good right out of the gate. I did not try to change FT's system, just implement as described. The trades were on a demo account and were consistent with good $$$ management. This led me to the point were I longed to do the trading with the VP software, but I was unwilling to pay the current 'asking' price. However, when I received the same e-mail offer that many of you also received (10 markets for $995), I was ready to make a move. I corresponded with FT about this for the purpose of getting from him his current thinking on the software and how it could be used as described in his review as well as in the upcoming PF.

Needless to say I pulled the trigger and the software should be here tomorrow (est zone). I will use CSI services and report my experiences here, trying to do so objectively and for educational purposes only. Remember, I'm a novice (just over a year of mostly fulltime trading), but I have already had some success with FT's system and I expect to improve the results with VP. We'll see. Stay tuned.

best of trading to all..........

BB
  • #79
  • Dec 13, 2005 10:46am Dec 13, 2005 10:46am
I purchased VP a couple of weeks ago, I had planned to buy the s/w before I found this thread, the offer was $3500 plus 6 markets. I went back to the sales rep after finding the $1500 offer on this thread and was happy that VP offered me the same deal. I was then offered 20 markets for an additional $1000, I said $500, we settled on $750. So my "deal" was VP for life plus 20 markets $2250. I am happy as hell, hope anyone reading this will bargain an even better deal.

Also would like to commet on having all 13 forex pairs, this definetly improves my chances of finding the "best" trade, or at least an in the money trade as I can "cherry pick".

I have had a few "in the money" trades and a few losers, I can only learn from the losses not fault VP, I picked a couple of losing trades that where in the path of some wild market swings ... which VP cannot predict.

I also am leaning my approach at present to picking the best trending pairs, they would logically have the best chance and VP does give me lots of indicators to confirm the trend "should" stay in place.

regards
Nigel
  • #80
  • Dec 13, 2005 9:02pm Dec 13, 2005 9:02pm
I think FT may have already mentioned this but, I've noticed that if you take the average of the predicted range: (PredHi+PredLo)/2 , it is hit very often. So far I've checked EURUSD (88% of the time over the last 300 trading days) and GBPJPY (89.6% of the time over the last 300 trading days), my own system is only right 85% of the time. To me this is very useful in determing exit points. Over the past two days this has captured some nice pips on my demo test.

Unless I am missing something (very probably) , this alone is worth the price of admission, (as always YMMV) ...

If anyone is interested, I'll post the results of my checks against the other pairs as I find time to do them.
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