Islander and Medici trade the European open | Page 20 | Forex Factory

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Islander and Medici trade the European open

  • #381
  • Jan 19, 2010 3:40am Jan 19, 2010 3:40am
6453 is the 61.8% level of the range from early July that has been in play ever since. So it might stop the upward journey for now.

Edit...and the 38.2% level was the clear buy yesterday morning at 6272.
  • #382
  • Jan 19, 2010 3:42am Jan 19, 2010 3:42am
CPI better than forecast, so I waited for the retrace of the initial spike and took a quick buy for nice pips as it spiked up to a new high at R2......where I reversed looking for a "buy the rumour, sell the news" move....

Edit: R2 is at 6455, so a nice confluence....

As I have to go out soon, I've closed that sell at the MR2 level....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #383
  • Jan 19, 2010 3:45am Jan 19, 2010 3:45am
Quoting Islander
CPI better than forecast, so I waited for the retrace of the initial spike and took a quick buy for nice pips as it spiked up to a new high at R2......where I reversed looking for a "buy the rumour, sell the news" move....
You've done well today, whereas I have been mostly watching.

Another factor having an impact today, I believe, is that the equity markets are taking a hit. The FTSE is down more than 1%.
  • #384
  • Jan 19, 2010 4:06am Jan 19, 2010 4:06am
The fun is over for the morning, it seems. Going out for a while. Will be back later. Congratulations to Islander on good trading!
  • #385
  • Jan 19, 2010 7:21am Jan 19, 2010 7:21am
Quoting medici
The fun is over for the morning, it seems. Going out for a while. Will be back later. Congratulations to Islander on good trading!
How wrong I was! I missed out on some good action. Well, well, it's a new day tomorrow.
  • #386
  • Jan 19, 2010 7:50am Jan 19, 2010 7:50am
That's two of us - and I even suggested that it was a ...."sell the news" type of event....http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif

Here's an Andrews PitchFork chart that I've been watching with both of its outer lines proving useful.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jan 19 cable hrly 0830 est.gif Size: 22 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #387
  • Jan 19, 2010 7:59am Jan 19, 2010 7:59am
I'm now watching the retrace with the 2 grey circled highs on the hourly chart as being potentail resistance areas - they're at 6355 - also todays MR1 level and 6378, yesterdays high.


As I type, the 6350 level has held and price is currently at the days open level of 6332.


Lets see what the TIC news brings....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #388
  • Jan 19, 2010 8:57am Jan 19, 2010 8:57am
I cant resist showing this "picture perfect" Euro trade......which I missed....a LH half an hour after LO was followed by a 135 pip fall....even the yellow 8 ema was hardly threatened....memo to self, ALWAYS look at the Euro too......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro 5m jan 19 1450 gmt.gif Size: 15 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #389
  • Jan 19, 2010 9:07am Jan 19, 2010 9:07am
Quoting Islander
I cant resist showing this "picture perfect" Euro trade......which I missed....a LH half an hour after LO was followed by a 135 pip fall....even the yellow 8 ema was hardly threatened....memo to self, ALWAYS look at the Euro too......
Nice chart. I noticed that one....after the fact....

Again, Euro has a cleaner chart and the trades would have been obvious if focus hadn't been on cable.
  • #390
  • Jan 19, 2010 9:55am Jan 19, 2010 9:55am
Quoting medici
Nice chart. I noticed that one....after the fact....

Again, Euro has a cleaner chart and the trades would have been obvious if focus hadn't been on cable.

I remember looking at it during Frankies Hour and then forgetting to put on my alerts....since they are voice ones for each pair I have to open them every morning.

I think we should make a habit of also commenting on € every morning in the hope that we catch a few other moves like this one.....what do you think?
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #391
  • Jan 19, 2010 10:01am Jan 19, 2010 10:01am
Quoting Islander
I remember looking at it during Frankies Hour and then forgetting to put on my alerts....since they are voice ones for each pair I have to open them every morning.

I think we should make a habit of also commenting on € every morning in the hope that we catch a few other moves like this one.....what do you think?
Very good idea. And in addition to considering them separately, it might be good to do a bit of comparison and perhaps have a plan for both. Today, for example, it might have sounded something like this:

Cable has broken through yesterday's high. Looking for longs at or above that high.

Euro has retraced to the important 4410 resistance level. Looking for shorts at or below that level.
  • #392
  • Jan 19, 2010 10:14am Jan 19, 2010 10:14am
Quoting medici
Very good idea. And in addition to considering them separately, it might be good to do a bit of comparison and perhaps have a plan for both. Today, for example, it might have sounded something like this:

Cable has broken through yesterday's high. Looking for longs at or above that high.

Euro has retraced to the important 4410 resistance level. Looking for shorts at or below that level.
I'm happy to give that a try.....looks like we've got a new job for tomorrow....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #393
  • Jan 20, 2010 12:26am Jan 20, 2010 12:26am
GM all - that's some action during the night. First stops under 4250 were taken out in the Euro and barrier options triggered at 4200 pulling cable down along with it.

And late in the Asian session another stop hunt under 6290 and 4183. So many longs taken out of the market and likely to consider shorts.

After a normal overnight drop I wouldn't have hesitated taking the 6am ride up with the retracement, but not on a morning like this. So I'd rather wait for a short set-up.

The area around yesterday's low 6310-16 looks like a possible area for shorts in cable.

The 4183 level in Euro is 50% of the 2008 drop. There might be some consolidation around that level after the massive drop. The December low at 4217 is an obvious level on the upside.

As always, we're looking at price action around the opens, i.e. 7am and 8am.
  • #394
  • Jan 20, 2010 12:48am Jan 20, 2010 12:48am
Note that 6325 is 50% of this night's drop. 61.8% and MS1 comes in around 6335.
  • #395
  • Jan 20, 2010 12:57am Jan 20, 2010 12:57am
GM - great analysis

Just looking at the retrace in cable, I've pulled fibs over the last fall from 6394 to the low and that puts the 38% at 6323, 50% @ 6336 and 61% @ 6350. The MS1 level is 6344.

The is a falling TL off the 15m currently at 6335.

If we use a fib over the whole of the fall, that 38% is at 6345

I'm looking to sell one of these areas
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #396
  • Jan 20, 2010 1:11am Jan 20, 2010 1:11am
Quoting Islander
GM - great analysis

Just looking at the retrace in cable, I've pulled fibs over the last fall from 6394 to the low and that puts the 38% at 6323, 50% @ 6336 and 61% @ 6350. The MS1 level is 6344.

The is a falling TL off the 15m currently at 6335.

If we use a fib over the whole of the fall, that 38% is at 6345

I'm looking to sell one of these areas
I shorted at the open, but there seems to be demand, possibly Cadbury related, so I closed when it stalled at S1.
  • #397
  • Jan 20, 2010 1:11am Jan 20, 2010 1:11am
Here is a handy tool that shows the levels of the Asian Session. It ends at 06:00 GMT
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 AsianSession.ex4   4 KB | 269 downloads
  • #398
  • Jan 20, 2010 1:18am Jan 20, 2010 1:18am
Quoting medici
I shorted at the open, but there seems to be demand, possibly Cadbury related, so I closed when it stalled at S1.

I took a similar trade....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #399
  • Jan 20, 2010 1:29am Jan 20, 2010 1:29am
The Euro has had a big fall with hardly any retraces. The 15 min chart has many long downside wicks, some with high volume, including the last closed candle, so I'm long after a HL, looking for a decent retrace.

I have two fibs, the narrower from the small pull back high at 4305.

This has 38 = 4217 (Dec 22 L 4215) the 50 = 4234 and the 61 = 4251

The wide fib from yesterday high has its 38 at 4258 and yesterdays low was also at 4250.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #400
  • Jan 20, 2010 1:30am Jan 20, 2010 1:30am
Quoting okfx
Here is a handy tool that shows the levels of the Asian Session. It ends at 06:00 GMT
Thank you! I noted that it's from CompassFX. Do you have experience with their products?
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