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Islander and Medici trade the European open

  • #361
  • Jan 18, 2010 5:59am Jan 18, 2010 5:59am
The most recent top on GU was 200 fib channel and 200 fib extension from Friday's low to today's first high. Let's see if it will hold.
  • #362
  • Jan 18, 2010 6:01am Jan 18, 2010 6:01am
From Fri. I think when you have decent range say from 100 pips on these seem to give decent targets when combined with other important levels/pivots etc.

Thanks once again.
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  • #363
  • Jan 18, 2010 6:12am Jan 18, 2010 6:12am
The action so far......

A HL at the DP with pull backs towards the rising 30 ema.....price stalled around Fridays high before bouncing up off the 30 ema into a high volume harami high.

Now after a 50% retrace I'll be watching to see how far it bounces.....

The pivots have been well respected......now to see if any fib channels lined up with any of the grey circles.....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #364
  • Jan 18, 2010 8:34am Jan 18, 2010 8:34am
Hello all,

I have been to the gym instead of practising patience in front of the screens...plenty of good shorting opportunities in cable...

I was struck earlier by how MFI divergence signalled that the move up was an exhausted pick-up trip to the last sell orders before the journey down.

And I have been looking around for an MFI/RSI divergence indicator, but none of those I found suited my palate. So I have developed a prototype indicator, that somebody may want to take a look at - attached. It is not at all optimised, so takes a lot of computer power - developed for testing purposes only so far.

What the indicator does is to compute the regression slope for both price and MFI over a specified number of bars. The divergence indicator is then the difference between those slopes, normalised so that the indicator should give readings between 100 and -100.
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  • #365
  • Jan 18, 2010 9:35am Jan 18, 2010 9:35am
Agreed, I've taken several profitable short trades.

Thanks, I'll try your indicator and also watch what happens to my CPU usage......
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #366
  • Jan 19, 2010 1:18am Jan 19, 2010 1:18am
GM - cable's 100 pip rally during the Asian Session was on low volume and I dont know if this is significant.

However, staying with the trend, the pull back to the 6400 level half an hour before FO offered 20+ pips in the spike up to new highs....

Looking at the daily chart its difficult to see any reason for this rally to stop, the 61.8% retrace is at 1.6477.

I have seen a comment that this move may be a pre election rally for political motives.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #367
  • Jan 19, 2010 1:21am Jan 19, 2010 1:21am
Quoting Islander
GM - cable's 100 pip rally during the Asian Session was on low volume and I dont know if this is significant.

However, staying with the trend, the pull back to the 6400 level half an hour before FO offered 20+ pips in the spike up to new highs....

Looking at the daily chart its difficult to see any reason for this rally to stop, the 61.8% retrace is at 1.6477.

I have seen a comment that this move may be a pre election rally for political motives.....
GM. More than anything, I think this is behind the move up:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...a49HGAQA&pos=1

So front-running in anticipation of M&A flows.
  • #368
  • Jan 19, 2010 1:27am Jan 19, 2010 1:27am
A rally this early, around the Tokyo fix, and then consolidation in a channel, seldom retraces but is usually bound for continuation. But the low volume and the hesitant price action make me wary, so I'll practice some patience until 8am.
  • #369
  • Jan 19, 2010 1:30am Jan 19, 2010 1:30am
The 6428 level, by the way, is the 38.2% retracement of the drop of 2008. Not insignificant.

Edit...and 6410 is the high of the mid December consolidation after the first leg of the post NFP drop.
  • #370
  • Jan 19, 2010 1:35am Jan 19, 2010 1:35am
Quoting medici
GM. More than anything, I think this is behind the move up:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...a49HGAQA&pos=1

So front-running in anticipation of M&A flows.
LOL - I was about to post this link too........so could be a combination of both theories....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #371
  • Jan 19, 2010 1:47am Jan 19, 2010 1:47am
Yet another thing underpinning the move:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...2YLllAJA&pos=6

Definitive conclusion on that at 9.30.
  • #372
  • Jan 19, 2010 2:01am Jan 19, 2010 2:01am
6425 ish a key top from 16 Dec also.
  • #373
  • Jan 19, 2010 2:21am Jan 19, 2010 2:21am
I've bought after the push down towards the 6400 level resulted in a 5 min HL.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #374
  • Jan 19, 2010 2:35am Jan 19, 2010 2:35am
Quoting Islander
I've bought after the push down towards the 6400 level resulted in a 5 min HL.....
Banked a few pips as price stalled at the earlier highs ~ 6420
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #375
  • Jan 19, 2010 2:38am Jan 19, 2010 2:38am
Quoting Islander
Banked a few pips as price stalled at the earlier highs ~ 6420
Well done. I wouldn't bet on a breakout after 8.30 when volumes usually start to decrease. Even more so today with the news coming up. I am still enjoying my patience pill...there were some easy ones in Euro and Aussie, but I had my eyes elsewhere.
  • #376
  • Jan 19, 2010 2:59am Jan 19, 2010 2:59am
Quoting medici
Well done. I wouldn't bet on a breakout after 8.30 when volumes usually start to decrease. Even more so today with the news coming up. I am still enjoying my patience pill...there were some easy ones in Euro and Aussie, but I had my eyes elsewhere.
Thanks....I'm just looking to pirate a few pips before the data.....I took a short too, but clucked early and missed this push under the R1 level
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #377
  • Jan 19, 2010 3:05am Jan 19, 2010 3:05am
I've bought the spike down to yesterdays high....I'll exit at R1 or 6400

Edit - closed just above R1....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #378
  • Jan 19, 2010 3:15am Jan 19, 2010 3:15am
Quoting Islander
I've bought the spike down to yesterdays high....I'll exit at R1 or 6400

Edit - closed just above R1....
Another good one! Missed it as I was away to get a cup of tea and something to nibble on.
  • #379
  • Jan 19, 2010 3:23am Jan 19, 2010 3:23am
Quoting medici
Another good one! Missed it as I was away to get a cup of tea and something to nibble on.
Thanks - the entry was good and I decided to bank my pips after it stalled ~R1.....the prior bounce lasted for 17 bars and I should have given this one more time, given that it was off an important level....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #380
  • Jan 19, 2010 3:26am Jan 19, 2010 3:26am
Quoting Islander
Thanks - the entry was good and I decided to bank my pips after it stalled ~R1.....the prior bounce lasted for 17 bars and I should have given this one more time, given that it was off an important level....
Yes, I would expect good sized orders to be placed at yesterday's high after the breakout, but I wouldn't expect follow through before the news.
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