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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #4,001
  • Edited 12:40pm Jan 17, 2010 12:20pm | Edited 12:40pm
Quoting halfstep
kidd and magic, thank you for answering my question.

it seems the more i delve into EW, the more possibilities there are. i feel even though EW have stone rules, there are still too much "flexibility" that allow different interpretations.

Going to Check out Glenn Neely soon
Yes , flexibility is the key. Most of traders think that if Theory says that after 1234 have to be wave 5 and they open positions and there is no wave 5 they said that this Theory is wothless .

The most important thing is, that in different scenarios are the same direction moves. Like now on EU, I don't know is that wave 4 or end of wave C and now new impulsive wave, but direction is the same . It's common thing, no matter how you label it, there are some parts of chart when there is only one direction for the move (but with different targets).
  • #4,002
  • Jan 17, 2010 2:24pm Jan 17, 2010 2:24pm
Quoting magictrader
Remember on higher degree possibility. Waves always endeavour to higher degree waves, so not always subwaves are ok, but big picture is.
In big picture this could be still irregular correction because new top was made in three waves...
I believe you are accurate in your statement. However, my opinion is that your analysis is incorrect. The US Dollar's wave count looks cleaner and shows it moving much higher. Because of this, I wouldn't conclude that the EURUSD's large drop is wave C. Conversely, I think it's more likely that it's wave 3. Also, the current sideways action doesn't look like a wave 1/2 scenario. It looks more like a wave 4.

Could you be correct? Yes, but I believe it's more likely that another move down completing wave 5 is in order.

ewt_guy
  • #4,003
  • Jan 17, 2010 2:44pm Jan 17, 2010 2:44pm
Of course, wave 5 down would be excellent . That will be the and of wave C and then we will go to 1,53 ;-).

But seriously I don't know what will happen . That is why I trade only when different scenarios shows only one way for the chart (like this drop: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...85#post3362685. It was so obvious no matter how you label it).

This large scale predictions are only for fun .
  • #4,004
  • Jan 17, 2010 4:33pm Jan 17, 2010 4:33pm
Quoting magictrader
Yes , flexibility is the key. Most of traders think that if Theory says that after 1234 have to be wave 5 and they open positions and there is no wave 5 they said that this Theory is wothless .

The most important thing is, that in different scenarios are the same direction moves. Like now on EU, I don't know is that wave 4 or end of wave C and now new impulsive wave, but direction is the same . It's common thing, no matter how you label it, there are some parts of chart when there is only one direction for the move (but with different targets)....
on the fundmental side,the greece news for eur seems not complete done yet, and when i take a look at the US 10years note yield chart, the yield for 10years note still have room to the upside, and a few days ago, the 10years US note yield actrully higher than the 10years German bund yield first time in 2 years, the spread between these 2 getting wider, which means the higher US yield will attract more US asset buying(higher us dollar)
if we use the fundmental news to fillter out the best wave count, i belive thats a wave 4 for eur, this US dollar rally just have a long way to go
  • #4,005
  • Jan 17, 2010 4:54pm Jan 17, 2010 4:54pm
Quoting magictrader
Yes , flexibility is the key. Most of traders think that if Theory says that after 1234 have to be wave 5 and they open positions and there is no wave 5 they said that this Theory is wothless .

The most important thing is, that in different scenarios are the same direction moves. Like now on EU, I don't know is that wave 4 or end of wave C and now new impulsive wave, but direction is the same . It's common thing, no matter how you label it, there are some parts of chart when there is only one direction for the move (but with different targets)....
my little though on elliott wave:
even if u follow every step of elliott wave guildline and rule,sometimes it will have so many way to lable the wave pattern. so i think we have to using intermarket relationship to look at some other markets which have high corelation with the market we want to analyies, also look at some fundmental side to fillter out the best wave count. otherwise, just like a lot of ppl say, the elliott wave sometimes just like a guessing game
  • #4,006
  • Jan 17, 2010 5:15pm Jan 17, 2010 5:15pm
E/U seems to be forming a rising flag with double zigzag. Any comments?
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  • #4,007
  • Jan 17, 2010 7:50pm Jan 17, 2010 7:50pm
update　AUD/USD EW 4H Chart
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you have to be out to be in
  • #4,008
  • Jan 17, 2010 8:01pm Jan 17, 2010 8:01pm
My UCHF_4H EW chart
UPDATE......UPDATE...
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you have to be out to be in
  • #4,009
  • Jan 18, 2010 7:06am Jan 18, 2010 7:06am
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Moving Average : Expect Reversals

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  • #4,010
  • Jan 18, 2010 8:39am Jan 18, 2010 8:39am
  •  jaboo
  • | Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Ray Comfort is....the banana man | 236 Posts
Quoting saeidhidari
GBP USD & EUR USD

dynamic trader 5 free?
  • #4,011
  • Jan 18, 2010 1:15pm Jan 18, 2010 1:15pm
Yeah there is defintely alot of flexibility in elliott. some people say that elliott have too many rules and guidelines, after doing these even for just a month, I feel like elliott have too little guidelines and rules.

Checking out Glenn Neely's book right now. might be good.
  • #4,012
  • Edited 2:08pm Jan 18, 2010 1:57pm | Edited 2:08pm
It is good and most complicated . I've learned Elliott Waves for about six months and after that I can saw different scenarios and counts. Now I'm still learning different types of corrections (most important thing, because after the correction is impulsive wave which is most profitable). It's not easy and not fast but it's worth it (just my opinion ).
  • #4,013
  • Jan 18, 2010 3:03pm Jan 18, 2010 3:03pm
AUDUSD weekly chart seems to have a clear 5-wave pattern, and now on a-b-c?
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  • #4,014
  • Jan 18, 2010 4:27pm Jan 18, 2010 4:27pm
GU looks nice for big shorts soon .
If they make new top then this could be end of wave 5 in wave 5 in wave C .
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  • #4,015
  • Jan 18, 2010 5:39pm Jan 18, 2010 5:39pm
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How to Use Forex volatility

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  • #4,016
  • Jan 18, 2010 7:48pm Jan 18, 2010 7:48pm
read a little bit of the neely method, it is alot more complicated than i had ever imagined, I think i am going to play around with the good old orthodox elliott before delve into Neely.

One of the thing that neely mentioned is that the nature of 24 hour market can have certain effects on elliott wave. because different parts of the world have different psychology, the Elliott wave could be "disrupted" because the mass psychology is different among different groups. (eg. london open, Aussie Open etc. )

Neely suggest to keep charts based on the "trading time of your own country". i am not sure what he means by that, does he mean use one time for me that would be Eastern, or does he mean skip the london open, and piece all the us open together?
  • #4,017
  • Jan 18, 2010 8:00pm Jan 18, 2010 8:00pm
I have GBP/USD counts Based on a H4 chart, H1 chart, and a M15 chart. they are counts in 3 different degrees.

Based on my counts, GBP/USD is in the C wave correcting the impulse wave started on 2009, Nov-16th, descending from 1.6800 to 1580,

The pair is expected to head down before reaching 1.6500
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  • #4,018
  • Jan 18, 2010 9:43pm Jan 18, 2010 9:43pm
Quoting halfstep
read a little bit of the neely method, it is alot more complicated than i had ever imagined, I think i am going to play around with the good old orthodox elliott before delve into Neely.

One of the thing that neely mentioned is that the nature of 24 hour market can have certain effects on elliott wave. because different parts of the world have different psychology, the Elliott wave could be "disrupted" because the mass psychology is different among different groups. (eg. london open, Aussie Open etc. )

Neely suggest to keep charts based on...



I have studied the Neely method for over 4 years, and its my prime method of analysis on Wave theory. One thing you have to remember is to read the book "Mastering Elliot Waves" with a grain of salt. I Use the concepts that he introduces, but I am quite carefull when I go to details. I dont agree with everything he says, specially his "hidden wave stuff". I believe no waves in the market are hidden, you can see them all, but then he uses this hidden wave stuff to fill in areas where the wave theory becomes really questionable. I also have my own formations besides some of the stuff that he talks about in the book. Specially when it comes to categorizing impulse moves. Some of the stuff that he talks about happen very differently in the market and cant be categorized by anything he says in his book. He guards his knowledge very much like a shaolin master that doesnt want give away some kind of secret. I dont think that is right and there is no secrets when it comes to elliot wave. The secret is hard work and spending 2-4 hours every night on categorizing waves. Overall its one of the most objective methods of analysis. He has something called a horizontal triangle which then poses the question, if trendlines are horizontal how can it be a triangle and I know that I read in Geometry that the area within a triangle is bound with 3 lines, now I cant figure out how come he came up with Horizontal Triangle, what the heck is that
  • #4,019
  • Jan 18, 2010 10:28pm Jan 18, 2010 10:28pm
Quoting Kambooj
I have studied the Neely method for over 4 years, and its my prime method of analysis on Wave theory. One thing you have to remember is to read the book "Mastering Elliot Waves" with a grain of salt. I Use the concepts that he introduces, but I am quite carefull when I go to details. I dont agree with everything he says, specially his "hidden wave stuff". I believe no waves in the market are hidden, you can see them all, but then he uses this hidden wave stuff to fill in areas where the wave theory becomes really questionable. I also have my...
I also have some doubt on Neely's counting methods. I learned that Neely has made quite many wrong calls on stock market lately (Prechter also did). Readers and subscribers should know what's going on when using this approach.
  • #4,020
  • Jan 18, 2010 10:42pm Jan 18, 2010 10:42pm
Quoting ridingwaves2
I also have some doubt on Neely's counting methods. I learned that Neely has made quite many wrong calls on stock market lately (Prechter also did). Readers and subscribers should know what's going on when using this approach.

Neely did his best to try to make Elliot Wave as objective as possible, and I give him credit for that, but again market sometimes has some really strange formation, that I think he ran into it too, and couldnt explain it after that. In another word he hit his own threshold and limits. Its like trying to go into a MMA fight if you only know how to only use your feet. You will get decked, so you need to know how to do ground fighting, punching, kicking and all that kind of stuff.

I was using his theory exclusively to enter the market and set stoplosses and limits and it was all good until the market truning points came and everything went Ka-Boom after that for me.

So I tried to search in his book, to try to find some answers on my own mistakes and for a while I was able to (for a while) and then I also went ballistic and was pulling my hair.

So what I did was this. I quit reading his book for about 1 year. In the meanwhile what I did was just look at the failed formation that screwed me up and tried to find something that would give me a early warning sign to get out.

I didnt use any indicators, nothing. All I did to save my ass was to draw trendlines. I noticed something strage about the market, and that is every signle market move has to land on a trendline of some sort or the other. If a market move does not land on a trendline its not done.

If hesitation occurs at a trendline 99% of the time it will break that trendline. No "ifs" and "buts" about it.

Now you can go to n-th degree trying to say "No" and according to my wave count it should reverse, and blah blah. But if you pay attention to how movement reacts at a trendline and go on the 1 minute chart and 5 minute chart and analyze the formations + the way its approaching trendlines, you save yourself 80% of the time from bad trades.

I did this and on some occasions I found that the market is not approaching a certain trendline with the speed and angle that it should, so I say the hell with my elliot count, I am just gonna go with what the trendline is telling me and then once it reacts differently at my target trendline, I worry about the count later.

Boy did it ever worked better for me. I am still trying to perfect my methods of doing it, but now the reaction towards trendlines are the much more important thing than the wave count.
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