Out Of The Ether - Welcome to Scotty B Land | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

HarryPlopper's Journey Into ADX Land 108 replies

Trials in Renko land 110 replies

News trading = Promised land? 33 replies

Journey to the Promise Land - iCSR Technique - 6 replies

Attachments: Out Of The Ether - Welcome to Scotty B Land
Exit Attachments

Out Of The Ether - Welcome to Scotty B Land

  • #21
  • Aug 7, 2008 6:43pm Aug 7, 2008 6:43pm
Quoting Scotty B
As we know, Geppy has retraced down again after the strong rebound we saw after the last dip. This is a huge between time right now as far as different market views are concerned. Many are undoubtedly assuming this pair will continue to dip and are selling on the spikes. IMHO I believe this is the reason for the current down action. I'm continuing to stand behind the old fib. As we sit now, price is hanging below the inner 38 fib level. I think despite the selling pressure, price will start heading up again soon- it is in reversal territory.

Scotty B
btw.....if you plot the 144 EMA shift 8 (shich I like to use) on your chart, you will see that is the place the double bottom is occuring at. What I would watch for is a candle breaking this barrier and then the next candle pushing it lower....if this happens. This is also a very strong reversal point...the 144 EMA

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.jpg Size: 181 KB


cheers
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #22
  • Aug 7, 2008 8:18pm Aug 7, 2008 8:18pm
What a wick! When the market is obligated to go up, and everyone and there mom is short, it causes absolute price whiplash. It is also a very good time to eat up a lot of stops. Price is in an extreme red zone right now in my perspective on things. Price needs to get up to the 215 mark and it keeps being pushed down. When this happens, it's like putting a tight lid on pot of boiling water. pressure is accumulated to the point of a violent explosion. It's wierd, I've seen the same pattern for about a month and a half now. This same thing happened two fib cycles ago. (see chart for example)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ffnow81.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ffnow82.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #23
  • Aug 24, 2008 8:51pm Aug 24, 2008 8:51pm
Quoting Scotty B
I finally decided it was time for a journal. The good thing about a journal is that I can say whatever I want- right or wrong and it doesn't really matter to much either way. I want to keep a journal as a way of keeping track of good ole trades, and sharing the feeling side of trading that gets a lot of us in trouble in this business. This is mainly what prodded me to start this.

Right now lots of you are riding the gravy train south , that train is GBPJPY; I am long. I got in @ 212.06 and am currently 122 pips in the negative. Being human, I don't like looking at that negative numbers and in the last hour I've gone through a few different emotions. It started with passiveness. I think the passiveness turned into frustration and frustration into anger. I was expecting price to go right to 213.38; it sure didn't. I kind of have the feeling I experienced as a kid when my parents told me I had to wait to get that shiny new toy I just had to have. I was one of the horribly disappointed crying kids you've all seen being dragged out of your local Wal Mart. I am human and I didn't get what I wanted when I wanted it. Now, despite the emotions I am feeling, I am going to stick this trade out because it is based on what I know to be true- and that is all I can stand on. I had the option all along the way to manually close the trade out but I am choosing to stand firm. The hour chart told me a few days ago that price was going to 215.52, we then saw a big fall. This is still true and price will get there and I believe the 210.50 area will stop this down move and send price back in the right direction. I might be wrong, but I cannot in good conscience take this loss because it is illogical to me. This brings us to the topic of stop losses. I do not trade with stops. Stops are a horrible excuse for emotional security in trading. I believe stops simply enable people to be lazy when it comes to furthering their trading education. As Skunny once said, people are willing to settle for sub par results as long as they have good money management. I think money management is crucial to success in trading, but I don't think success is hinged on it. I believe that long term success starts with knowledge, acceptance of that knowledge, experience with that knowledge, all leading to wisdom- a mixture of these things. To sum it up, you can have no better stop loss than wisdom. And thats why I am sitting here now 90 pips negative. She'll go back up and the storm will be over soon. If what I know to be true fails me then the broker can have my money and I'll just take my money to Vegas.
Scotty,
God bless your soul for it seems you truly believe what you are saying. Trading without a stop loss, at least a mental stop loss just doesn't make sense. You are saying that you must be right or you will give your whole account to your broker. One trade is not worth it man. I have been through it but I didn't condone it either. You sound like an addict to drawdowns man.
Really, you should read what you are writing and see how addicted to being right you are. The market is the only one always right. We are little pests on the back of the big boys, trying to get in on the good moves and there is no way the market is going to subject itself to our rules. Of course we can select patterns and be right on the money the majority of the time, but to let one trade take it all away, it's not good. I have done it bro, and it is just account suicide. Take the emotions out. You don't have to be right all the time.
  • #24
  • Jan 18, 2010 8:18am Jan 18, 2010 8:18am
It's always a funny experience when you can go back and laugh at yourself and your lack of knowledge and experience. I was a big Fibonacci proponent around here, and well, as you can see.. Fibs rarely work.

Thankfully, six months or so ago, I found a member here named Gaston who's only posted 101 times, but he turned my trading around. Those who he has vouched for have also become a priceless resource to me. There is nothing here explicitly at FF that will set you free as it were, but all the sources are here. So thank you to all of you traders who actually know what you are doing here at FF who are kind enough to leave the proverbial breadcrumbs so that us little guys can find our way.

It was a lot of work and I am surprised how simple the answer is (as I know it now). Trading is very simply a zero sum game. If you can figure out who has a better potential of moving the market if they lose, you're golden. I am finding new avenues and opportunities everyday and my personal goal is to never quit learning.

I don't know how much I'll post in here, but I just wanted to say that I've done a 180 degree change in my trading. I want to encourage those of you who are struggling to not make another trade until you know the market like the back of your hand. Darkstar said once that he was surprised how few traders know even the basics of how the FX market works. I've been surprised as well to see how many 10+vouch traders don't even know how price moves. I'm not bashing anybody, I was guilty of this too, but it is just plain silly that people who call themselves traders don't know how basic trading works.

Please don't take any of my early post too seriously, look at them as a story of a moron who is still a moron that just grew up a little in his trading.

For fun...This morning I'm watching EU consolidate and I'm interested in a possible short. As of this moment there is much more stored potential energy to the down side. This never means that a market will move in the direction you're watching, but it does mean to ignore the weaker direction even if price goes there. In all honesty, there is always only one direction you should be willing to trade in any market at a given time. This sounds stupid and like common sense, but as I've found, even some breakouts should be avoided. They might look really good on the chart, but you really need to know why they are happening and who is making them happen. Losers move the market much more than winners do, and in a way that almost guarantees you some pips. The idea is to make those high probability pips count for all their worth (to make High-C happy).

Thanks for listening to my blabbing...

Scotty B
  • #25
  • Jan 18, 2010 1:54pm Jan 18, 2010 1:54pm


Same here Scotty.

Gaston, Darkstar, DayTrading FTI posts turned my trading beliefs upside down and gave me a lot of work to do and I'm very grateful for that. The skfx thread also gave me many tips on where to look on this path. I also follow your progress and i'm very happy with your success cause it gives me even more motivation to keep going.

I still have much to learn but what I already know gives me a new perspective about the forex market. Like Gaston said it's all about "cause and effect".

ps. Sorry for my english.
  • #26
  • Jan 18, 2010 9:09pm Jan 18, 2010 9:09pm
Quoting StonerRock


Same here Scotty.

Gaston, Darkstar, DayTrading FTI posts turned my trading beliefs upside down and gave me a lot of work to do and I'm very grateful for that. The skfx thread also gave me many tips on where to look on this path. I also follow your progress and i'm very happy with your success cause it gives me even more motivation to keep going.

I still have much to learn but what I already know gives me a new perspective about the forex market. Like Gaston said it's all about "cause and effect".

ps. Sorry for my english.
Your English is fine man..Yes, cause and effect works for me.
  • #27
  • Last Post: Jan 25, 2010 9:39am Jan 25, 2010 9:39am
Hey Scotty B, thx for the reply on my thread + sharing you progress. You have given me a lot of ideas in your discovery thread and all the inspiring posts on Behind Price Order Flow.

Now, I am on mission discovery just like how you did and you progress really encourage me to really go for it.

I am very glad to hear that you have found a good way out after all the hardcore guesses and research you have done in the past.

I Wish you all the best and happy pip hunting.

Damn, I love FF, lol
Life is a school for the soul
0 traders viewing now