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GbpUsd 5 min breakout

  • #481
  • Jan 17, 2010 6:25pm Jan 17, 2010 6:25pm
Hi Cain,

Shame about your pc woes....Good to have you back on board..




Quoting Cain_
Hi guys! I'm back! I lost my pc, and more incredibly... I was "hacked". So I could not access my mail accounts or my FF account. So I decided to create a new account for safety reasons, l will ask the moderation team to "block my old user, now I'm Cain_!
Interesting to see so many people around here, I will catch up as soon as I can!


Happy pips!
  • #482
  • Jan 17, 2010 10:38pm Jan 17, 2010 10:38pm
Quoting Cain_
Hi guys! I'm back! I lost my pc, and more incredibly... I was "hacked". So I could not access my mail accounts or my FF account. So I decided to create a new account for safety reasons, l will ask the moderation team to "block my old user, now I'm Cain_!
Interesting to see so many people around here, I will catch up as soon as I can!


Happy pips!
Wecome back, Bro! We were concerned about you.
  • #483
  • Jan 18, 2010 3:13am Jan 18, 2010 3:13am
Anyone in a trade this morning?
  • #484
  • Jan 18, 2010 3:33am Jan 18, 2010 3:33am
Quoting Intel
Anyone in a trade this morning?
Yes...Long @ 1.6324 on Oanda. Up about 20 pips now.
  • #485
  • Jan 18, 2010 3:40am Jan 18, 2010 3:40am
Quoting Intel
Anyone in a trade this morning?

Yeah,,

I entered at 1.6320. Closed one lot at 6350 and waiting to see if we can break it with my other lot. I might close out my other position soon though as I think we falling for a while and then I may consider re-entering later if price returns to these levels... I think cable is going down today so don't feel comfortable in this trade.....
  • #486
  • Jan 18, 2010 3:47am Jan 18, 2010 3:47am
Blinkers,

The 60EMa on the 5 min, 15 min, 1 hour and 4 hour charts are all pointing up with price above all 4 levels since before the breakout. What makes you wary of the long trade?

Thanks,
BC
  • #487
  • Jan 18, 2010 4:10am Jan 18, 2010 4:10am
In fact, winner, winner...chicken dinner!

TP filled at 1,6362 +38 pips

Thanks, Cain
  • #488
  • Jan 18, 2010 4:11am Jan 18, 2010 4:11am
Quoting Bobcat2
In fact, winner, winner...chicken dinner!

TP filled at 1,6362

Thanks, Cain
cheers mate, another 2% gain for me today.

I really want to trade this live...damn
Never whishing, always trading.
  • #489
  • Jan 18, 2010 4:16am Jan 18, 2010 4:16am
Quoting Hova
cheers mate, another 2% gain for me today.

I really want to trade this live...damn
What's holding you back, Bro? I trade with Oanda where you can trade live for as little as $.01 per pip. I recommend using a broker that allows nano accounts because trading demo just simply isn't the same as trading live no matter what the amount you are trading.

Cheers!
  • #490
  • Jan 18, 2010 4:18am Jan 18, 2010 4:18am
I just a bit concerned that PA at 50% fib ret on the daily that all...however, since my last post price has shot up...well done to all that stayed in... I got out at 6350... I don't mind though as picked up 30 pips...also we had a lower low on the hourly... I think I gonna look for short entry today.... Maybe at the other side of box..but to be honest mate I only a rookie so don't pay too much attention to my dreamy ideas......

Quoting Bobcat2
Blinkers,

The 60EMa on the 5 min, 15 min, 1 hour and 4 hour charts are all pointing up with price above all 4 levels since before the breakout. What makes you wary of the long trade?

Thanks,
BC
  • #491
  • Jan 18, 2010 4:19am Jan 18, 2010 4:19am
I have had a quick look at GBP/JPY as FX suggested and the results have been impressive.

FX

Do you have any results yet?

From first looks, I'd say we should enter on the second time it breaks out in any one direction. What do you think?
  • #492
  • Jan 18, 2010 4:29am Jan 18, 2010 4:29am
Well to be honest mate I haven't really tested it yet...I'm hopeless at backtesting as I have to do it manually and write out the results but even just looking back at the charts for that pair it might be an option to trade it when cable is behaving like it did last week.... I didn't feel comfortable trading the range for the second half of last week but I did it anyway to follow this system and was lucky to get through it alright but in future I may have a look at gbp/jpy during those periods........I wonder has Cain looked into this????

Quoting Intel
I have had a quick look at GBP/JPY as FX suggested and the results have been impressive.

FX

Do you have any results yet?

From first looks, I'd say we should enter on the second time it breaks out in any one direction. What do you think?
  • #493
  • Jan 18, 2010 5:01am Jan 18, 2010 5:01am
Quoting fxblinkers
Well to be honest mate I haven't really tested it yet...I'm hopeless at backtesting as I have to do it manually and write out the results but even just looking back at the charts for that pair it might be an option to trade it when cable is behaving like it did last week.... I didn't feel comfortable trading the range for the second half of last week but I did it anyway to follow this system and was lucky to get through it alright but in future I may have a look at gbp/jpy during those periods........I wonder has Cain looked into this????
From visual backtesting ~ 6 month, gbp/jpy looks quite good to trade.
Trading this instead of ranging gbp/usd is a good idea.

Quote
What's holding you back, Bro? I trade with Oanda where you can trade live for as little as $.01 per pip. I recommend using a broker that allows nano accounts because trading demo just simply isn't the same as trading live no matter what the amount you are trading.
Dont know, i dont like Oanda that much, do they accept clients from EU ?
i think i will try Activetrades or Alpari
Never whishing, always trading.
  • #494
  • Jan 18, 2010 5:40am Jan 18, 2010 5:40am
hi guys,
are you using the same timing for the GBP/JPY?
i have visually back test it for 2 month and the results are impressive. i used the 7:00 7:10 time frame

i will start trading it, each pip count

Cheers
  • #495
  • Jan 18, 2010 6:29am Jan 18, 2010 6:29am
Quoting Intel
I have had a quick look at GBP/JPY as FX suggested and the results have been impressive.

FX

Do you have any results yet?

From first looks, I'd say we should enter on the second time it breaks out in any one direction. What do you think?
I tend to agree with you Intel on this. The number of times that there is a retrace back into the box once the box is broken is statistically very significant (he says, based on a spot check rather than any meaningful statistical analysis). Prop traders at the big houses have been known to bet against breakout strategies which rely on the London/Frankfurt/NY Opening (and the weight of their orders will be significant).

I just happened to wake up 15 mins late this morning and so missed the initial Long breakout. I watched it retraced and my long order was a "trailing" order, with the entry point moving further and further inside the box as PA moved downwards (ie further into the box). I kept my TP and SL the same as normal. three points arise:
1. the SL on my first trade is lower, so I can adjust my lot size up or just be happy risking less. Similarly, my TP improves (I made 49 pips from the trade today, rather than 41 pips);
2. It no longer becomes a 5min set-up - and - forget strategy.
3. if PA happened to have had no retrace back into the box, i guess i would lose out. But I wonder how frequently this happens...?

Just a thought. Anyway, even based on set-and-forget this is the best b/o strategy I've used I must say. Kudos to Cain - Abel would be proud (but jealous!).
Kind regards, Geiger

ps I recall a strategy tester EA being provided...and tweaked for bugs...how happy are we using it? Can someone remind me where the latest/best version of it is? Thanks very much in advance.
There's nothing new in trading. You buy, you sell, that's it....
  • #496
  • Jan 18, 2010 7:07am Jan 18, 2010 7:07am
Hi Intel,

I've just been thinking that it prob doesn't matter whether we enter on 1st or 2nd BO as the only advantage is if there is a false breakout which could happen anyway on the 2nd BO. The only benefit is that you might not be in drawdown as long. As long as SL is the other side of the box and is not breached that is the most important aspect I would feel. Also, it means that when price makes a clean break you are in the trade from the start... It will prob take a bit more research on this to determine the best approach.........

Blinkers........

Quoting Intel
I have had a quick look at GBP/JPY as FX suggested and the results have been impressive.

FX

Do you have any results yet?

From first looks, I'd say we should enter on the second time it breaks out in any one direction. What do you think?
  • #497
  • Jan 18, 2010 10:44am Jan 18, 2010 10:44am
Quoting fxblinkers
Hi Intel,

I've just been thinking that it prob doesn't matter whether we enter on 1st or 2nd BO as the only advantage is if there is a false breakout which could happen anyway on the 2nd BO. The only benefit is that you might not be in drawdown as long. As long as SL is the other side of the box and is not breached that is the most important aspect I would feel. Also, it means that when price makes a clean break you are in the trade from the start... It will prob take a bit more research on this to determine the best approach.........

Blinkers........

I saw that MANY times, the first BO was a loser and also the opposite first BO was a loser sometimes. Waiting for the retraced BO could save on a lot of losers but, will miss the odd forst time BO win.

This is of course on GBP/JPY. More in depth work is required. I will have a look shortly.
  • #498
  • Jan 18, 2010 10:46am Jan 18, 2010 10:46am
If anyone else has any filtering suggestions for any pair, please feel free to comment.

If we can rule out a method of filtering, we'll be one step closer to finding the correct filter.
  • #499
  • Jan 18, 2010 11:14am Jan 18, 2010 11:14am
Quoting Intel
I saw that MANY times, the first BO was a loser and also the opposite first BO was a loser sometimes. Waiting for the retraced BO could save on a lot of losers but, will miss the odd forst time BO win.

This is of course on GBP/JPY. More in depth work is required. I will have a look shortly.

Hi,

I wonder if you (or anyone else here) have any statistics regarding closing pending orders the same or the following day? I wonder, since keeping them open for that long wouldn't actually be considered as a BO in terms of the systems BO strategy. It's more of following the trend and being lucky if coming BO's/happenings don't change this trend. Or am I wrong?


Archie
  • #500
  • Jan 18, 2010 11:55am Jan 18, 2010 11:55am
I agree... I will only trade one side of the breakout unless it occurs later that same day. If I'm not in the 2nd part of the trade by 5 or 6 pm GMT I don't take it at all... The way I see it is that even by lunch time it is just a random price level so as you said we would then just be trend trading and not BO trading... Also, if I am going to enter the 2nd part of the trade I try and use some kind of discretion in relation the S/R to pick a valid entry point as the opposite side of the box is not really relevant anymore...

Quoting Archie
Hi,

I wonder if you (or anyone else here) have any statistics regarding closing pending orders the same or the following day? I wonder, since keeping them open for that long wouldn't actually be considered as a BO in terms of the systems BO strategy. It's more of following the trend and being lucky if coming BO's/happenings don't change this trend. Or am I wrong?


Archie
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