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Stop fooling yourself; There is no system

  • #221
  • Jan 17, 2010 10:50am Jan 17, 2010 10:50am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
For a long trade one would enter when the price is in the bottom half of its 'noise range', I think what you would be counting on is called mean reversion. Still, you would need to, by some method, be able to count on price moving to wards a point X (which was higher than the entry price) with reasonable probability; the probability needed depending on factors such as R:R.

I wish I had more time to study Maths.

At the say the bottom of the range, the odds are in your favor for the price to go higher as the odds of getting a number in the middle of the distribution are greater that getting another 'outlier', this is basic stats. Markets are never this simple of course, but sometimes they are close, measuring the mean is the hard part.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #222
  • Jan 17, 2010 10:55am Jan 17, 2010 10:55am
Quoting birdt
Please excuse my ignorance but what does that mean? The only way that price is guaranteed in forex is in the execution of limit orders. I don't think that is what you are referring to in this case though.
"price movement" or "price patterns ". I think.
  • #223
  • Jan 17, 2010 11:00am Jan 17, 2010 11:00am
Quoting Craig
At the say the bottom of the range, the odds are in your favor for the price to go higher as the odds of getting a number in the middle of the distribution are greater that getting another 'outlier', this is basic stats. Markets are never this simple of course, but sometimes they are close, measuring the mean is the hard part.
You'd be surprised how simple it really is, Craig. You are a obviously a brilliant guy, a programmer, and you've brought that part of yourself to trade with. I applaud your effort and the success you've found in your own unique way. I have friends in real life (offline) who are programmers and they are some of the most competitive guys I know. You should see them when we play risk..They get so angry it's hilarious.

Keep up the good work man. I might start calling you 'High-C'
  • #224
  • Jan 17, 2010 11:21am Jan 17, 2010 11:21am
Quoting Craig
At the say the bottom of the range, the odds are in your favor for the price to go higher as the odds of getting a number in the middle of the distribution are greater that getting another 'outlier', this is basic stats. Markets are never this simple of course, but sometimes they are close, measuring the mean is the hard part.
lets say that bottom of this range is the "/ " betweem 50 , 50.................. I will go long when price hits the " / " or you can say the bottom of the range and if this bottom has some added confluence like divergence, a trend line passing or a Fib I will have more confidence in this long trade................................................... IF price does not respect this bottom of the range and goes through and hits my stop................................. THEN I will open a short position cause price has now fliped more like a coin............................... BUT the most important thing here is that I am doing it at nothing less then 4H time frame cause if I want this method to work I need many of other traders watching the same lines and taking action with me.
simple as dirt to me.
  • #225
  • Jan 17, 2010 11:48am Jan 17, 2010 11:48am
Quoting Scotty B
You'd be surprised how simple it really is, Craig. You are a obviously a brilliant guy, a programmer, and you've brought that part of yourself to trade with. I applaud your effort and the success you've found in your own unique way. I have friends in real life (offline) who are programmers and they are some of the most competitive guys I know. You should see them when we play risk..They get so angry it's hilarious.

Keep up the good work man. I might start calling you 'High-C'
Thank you for the complement, 'High-C++' may be a better nick-name.
I know what you say about programmers, they are 'special' personalties, but I would want to say too much as I would risk being a unself aware hypocrite
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #226
  • Jan 17, 2010 11:49am Jan 17, 2010 11:49am
What more we learn the strategy, the more we lose in the brain. We can be successful with only one mooving average, if you have good money menagment. I am right?
regards
{Promotion Removed}
  • #227
  • Jan 17, 2010 11:51am Jan 17, 2010 11:51am
Quoting nasir.khan
lets say that bottom of this range is the "/ " betweem 50 , 50.................. I will go long when price hits the " / " or you can say the bottom of the range...
I fear you have drastically misunderstood my point, but if it works for you, all good.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #228
  • Jan 17, 2010 12:09pm Jan 17, 2010 12:09pm
Quoting Craig
I fear you have drastically misunderstood my point, but if it works for you, all good.
did I.............................??? .......................sorry for that sir I will drop out here. :
  • #229
  • Jan 17, 2010 12:55pm Jan 17, 2010 12:55pm
Quoting Vlad
And there is no one who knows how to trade.
How much did you lose?
  • #230
  • Jan 17, 2010 1:54pm Jan 17, 2010 1:54pm
i believe trading can turn in to gambling, but this is not the problem. I believe if you want to be moral, being not productive can make you feel worse than feeling you're gambling!!
there're many systems that work, there's not too many people know and be enough confident to follow every single step of them.
  • #231
  • Jan 17, 2010 9:03pm Jan 17, 2010 9:03pm
Quoting randy1953
Good post of course I belive you trading Forex is not gambling but you can gamble trading Forex. It's really simple, most things in like are simple and we make then complex. First right out of the gate everyone has a 50/50 chance of picking the direction of profit not 45/55,4951 but 50/50. Second we have the opportunity to find out all we want about the history of this trade, the fundamentals etc etc. These things we find out are known to cause movement in the market. Sofor your you will increase your odds of picking the winning trade. Once your...
Good analogy with your example. Gambling is something left for chance where your input doesn't mean much. Investment is something in which your knowledge and effort can pay off. We can make anything a gambling if you don't put in your knowledge and effort. If you start a business without doing the homework on market research, without enough funding, without product appeal, you sure can lose out compared to some one else who has done all the research before they start. If you are to invest in real estate blindly without enough knowledge of this market, you can buy blindly at the wrong time, the wrong location, the wrong house, you can lose your shirt compared to those witty investors who have had years of experience and knowlege to know what and when to buy and what and when to avoid. There is no difference when it comes to trading in Forex, or for that matter, in stocks and commodities. Knowledge and efforts can make the difference between winning and losing. If you are constantly winning (not 100% of course) in investment or trading because you know what you are doing, then it is not gambling. It is no difference in any thing else you invest to get a return. Shall we say that in marriage too? (Hehe) My humble 2 cents.
  • #232
  • Jan 17, 2010 10:08pm Jan 17, 2010 10:08pm
Quoting TradeRunner
I'm sorry you've lost your money. However, it is obvious that you are not a trader and do not have a trader's attitude.
So... please just go back to your 9 - 5 mentality and don't put your negative mindset on the rest of us.

We... (who are making money) know there is no better way.
  • #233
  • Edited 10:34pm Jan 17, 2010 10:17pm | Edited 10:34pm
Quoting tinojazz
We can be successful with only one mooving average, if you have good money menagment. I am right?
regards
That is true you can trade and have an edge using one moving average.
  • #234
  • Jan 18, 2010 2:14am Jan 18, 2010 2:14am
Just folow the trend,entry at right time,and exit to bigger take profit. You cant change the trend with your arsenal of indicators or with art painting at the chart.Just be boring and patient to have success.
{Promotion Removed}
  • #235
  • Jan 18, 2010 7:22am Jan 18, 2010 7:22am
Like in gambling, if there was a consistent winning system for Forex Trading, everyone would be using it.

Some years ago I did some intense study on indicators, trends, charts and all the other technicalities associated with Forex. The Forex market is so unpredictable I wonder if these things really help.

I talked to people associated with the World of Forex trading and I also met some burnt out Forex traders. Stress and worry are the two words that I came to connect with Forex Trading.

I vowed never to allow myself to ever get like that. Life is too short.

I did by chance find a way to trade without the long hours of stress, and I now only spend a few hours a week trading. This way I enjoy my trading, and I make a profit.

Robert.
  • #236
  • Jan 18, 2010 8:45am Jan 18, 2010 8:45am
Quoting tinojazz
Just folow the trend,entry at right time,and exit to bigger take profit. You cant change the trend with your arsenal of indicators or with art painting at the chart.Just be boring and patient to have success.
Then what is the trend now in EURUSD? And where is correct entry? And at what point the trend will change?
  • #237
  • Jan 18, 2010 10:00am Jan 18, 2010 10:00am
Quoting taomql4
Not too sure what eurusd is doing!! but am selling the heck out of eurchf,
i am on W2 down!!! U see Vlad, i just follow the Yellow brick Road...lol
You are doing well. But real problem with trend following is DETERMINING the trend. When it keeps falling, it is obvious it is in the downtrend. But when it starts retracing, how would you determine if it is a retrace in a downtrend or beginning of new uptrend? At what point will you be able to safely say that the trend has changed? Will you keep selling or start buying? The same problem applies to all timeframes.
  • #238
  • Edited 10:22am Jan 18, 2010 10:12am | Edited 10:22am
Quoting tano
You are doing well. But real problem with trend following is DETERMINING the trend. When it keeps falling, it is obvious it is in the downtrend. But when it starts retracing, how would you determine if it is a retrace in a downtrend or beginning of new uptrend? At what point will you be able to safely say that the trend has changed? Will you keep selling or start buying? The same problem applies to all timeframes.

I use a method called VSA. i know when the big boys(smart money, who
make up about 80% of my volume histogram) are in the market
. 90/100, i can tell when they want to move the market in another direction(i.e, WAVES).

You can never stop learning--check out the shamus VSA thread!!
  • #239
  • Jan 18, 2010 10:43am Jan 18, 2010 10:43am
Quoting taomql4
I use a method called VSA. i know when the big boys(smart money, who
make up about 80% of my volume histogram) are in the market
. 90/100, i can tell when they want to move the market in another direction(i.e, WAVES).

You can never stop learning--check out the shamus VSA thread!!
Fine. Please send me a signal then when you see smart money next time. EUR/CHF, Buy or sell, what price?
  • #240
  • Edited 5:08pm Jan 18, 2010 12:05pm | Edited 5:08pm
I would recommend you people do some quality reading insted of spending so much time reading the crap on forums.....
A couple of books to start with would be Trading in the zone, and just about any thing from Tharp....
Here is a link to some of his stuff..... http://www.iitm.com/products/product_list.htm

And with that I am outa here... reading this thread makes my eyes hurt.
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