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Old Dog with New Tricks

  • #161
  • Jan 15, 2010 6:46am Jan 15, 2010 6:46am
Quoting sebastionay
I mean that I think sell offs happen much faster in proportion to the amount they move and also as a result happen over shorter time periods than rallies.

I would expect its just because fear has a stronger effect than faith in most peoples buying decisions.
People keep saying this in various FX trading boards, but it's only really true in the stock market. The problem is folks read statements about sell-offs happening faster etc etc in books, but those books frequently are geared toward stock trading. In stocks sell-offs happen faster because many of the market participants are investing in something tangible with real value i.e. a company with earnings. When they get nervous or scared they sell out their interest in the investment. Fear is a powerful emotion in an investment scenario.

In FX, you're not "investing" in anything. All you're really doing is betting on a ratio of two currencies. Fear goes both ways then. Folks who like the euro get scared and sell it off, buying usd in the process. Folks who like the usd get scared and sell off their usd and buy euros instead.

Google "bullish bias" and you'll see what I mean. Stocks can go to zero but a currency pair can't.
You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
  • #162
  • Jan 15, 2010 6:57am Jan 15, 2010 6:57am
Quoting stevegee58
Stocks can go to zero but a currency pair can't.
Not true.

Currencies can indeed go to 0. The Icelandic Krona was 0 for a time due to Iceland's bankruptcy.
  • #163
  • Jan 15, 2010 7:15am Jan 15, 2010 7:15am
Quoting Ronald Raygun
Not true.

Currencies can indeed go to 0. The Icelandic Krona was 0 for a time due to Iceland's bankruptcy.
Well you're right but my original point was regarding the idea of sell-offs being faster in FX. The "bullish" direction of a currency pair is arbitrary so a "sell-off" can go up instead of down depending on which currency is in favor at the time.

With stocks there's only one bullish direction because the price reflects the value of the company.
You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
  • #164
  • Edited 8:34am Jan 15, 2010 8:12am | Edited 8:34am
Hello, RR. I have just downloaded and installed your EA and will be giving it a test run on one of my demo accounts for the next week. I'll report back with the results of your EA versus one of Steve Hopwood's EA, both working on the same pair (but different machines and accounts).

Thanks for sharing it with us.
Ed
  • #165
  • Jan 15, 2010 9:21am Jan 15, 2010 9:21am
Quoting stevegee58
Well you're right but my original point was regarding the idea of sell-offs being faster in FX. The "bullish" direction of a currency pair is arbitrary so a "sell-off" can go up instead of down depending on which currency is in favor at the time.

With stocks there's only one bullish direction because the price reflects the value of the company.
Im aware that its more obvious in stocks but if you look at a bullish chart you will notice that the selling happened much faster than the buying.

And as RR mentioned a currency can go to 0.

All of the instances of the EA I have running at the moment say 'trade trigger: none' Does this mean it won't be trading? Ive had no trades so far even with the very high % scores.

I also find that if I increase the number of bars that it can't calculate anymore, Ive got a daily chart that has tried to calculate something like 18 bars for 1 day now.

RR are you familiar with cognitive biases?
The greatest force on earth is compound interest.
  • #166
  • Jan 15, 2010 9:29am Jan 15, 2010 9:29am
Quoting sebastionay
Im aware that its more obvious in stocks but if you look at a bullish chart you will notice that the selling happened much faster than the buying.

And as RR mentioned a currency can go to 0.

All of the instances of the EA I have running at the moment say 'trade trigger: none' Does this mean it won't be trading? Ive had no trades so far even with the very high % scores.

I also find that if I increase the number of bars that it can't calculate anymore, Ive got a daily chart that has tried to calculate something like 18 bars for 1 day now.

RR...

Trade Trigger "None" means no trade signal at that very moment. Trading Style is what you should look for.

18 bars for 1 day? What timeframe?

And yes, I'm familiar with cognitive bias.
  • #167
  • Jan 15, 2010 9:46am Jan 15, 2010 9:46am
Thats on the daily TF I guess my computer is just too slow.
The greatest force on earth is compound interest.
  • #168
  • Jan 15, 2010 9:58am Jan 15, 2010 9:58am
EA won't work on the daily TF at all. It's currently based on the daily high and low. I suggest 1M charts to start out. Step the timeframe up as you need to.
  • #169
  • Jan 15, 2010 9:24pm Jan 15, 2010 9:24pm
Hi Ronald,

I am really new in trading system by metatrader.

I'd like to use some trading system that really works with real money.

Could you post a top hit parade of trading system that we could use for real trading divided by category, with a help how setup them and where is it possible download them?

Trending Systems
Ranging Systems
Counter Trending Systems
Breakout Systems
News Systems
Scalping Systems
Pattern System

I'd like to be envolved in database project, what should i do?

Is it possible trade forex by interactivebrokers?

Regards
  • #170
  • Jan 15, 2010 11:03pm Jan 15, 2010 11:03pm
Quoting allgodata
Hi Ronald,

I am really new in trading system by metatrader.

I'd like to use some trading system that really works with real money.

Could you post a top hit parade of trading system that we could use for real trading divided by category, with a help how setup them and where is it possible download them?

Trending Systems
Ranging Systems
Counter Trending Systems
Breakout Systems
News Systems
Scalping Systems
Pattern System

I'd like to be envolved in database project, what should i do?

Is it possible trade forex by interactivebrokers?

Regards...
Do those systems know when to trade or is it up to the trader?
  • #171
  • Jan 16, 2010 7:35am Jan 16, 2010 7:35am
New guys, please dont'e expect seasoned traders to answer newbie type questions. Not to sound rude, but the big guys, like RR have bigger work to do than fundamental education.

Before you make posts requesting informatio that you can find yourself, pick a couple of good threads and read the THOUSANDS of post that are there. You will both learn a lot and you will also have a better sense of how this community works.

I too have learned this the hard way.

If you have a question, spend 30 minutes or so trying to find the answer on your own, rather than ask someone else to to the work for you. Some of the more experienced members can get somewhat testy when getting these requests, and rightfully so.

From another newbie,

MurphyMan



Quoting allgodata
Hi Ronald,

I am really new in trading system by metatrader.

I'd like to use some trading system that really works with real money.

Could you post a top hit parade of trading system that we could use for real trading divided by category, with a help how setup them and where is it possible download them?

Trending Systems
Ranging Systems
Counter Trending Systems
Breakout Systems
News Systems
Scalping Systems
Pattern System

I'd like to be envolved in database project, what should i do?

Is it possible trade forex by interactivebrokers?

Regards...
  • #172
  • Jan 16, 2010 10:59am Jan 16, 2010 10:59am
Quoting tjfxtrader
Do those systems know when to trade or is it up to the trader?
This hilo trader is the first generation of a series of 'smart' EAs.
  • #173
  • Jan 16, 2010 11:05am Jan 16, 2010 11:05am
here are my settings.
Remark1=== Main Settings ==
MagicNumber=32095
SignalsOnly=0
Alerts=true
SignalMail=true
PlaySounds=0
ECNBroker=0
EachTickMode=1
CloseOnOppositeSignal=0
Lots=0.01000000
MoneyManagement=true
Risk=1
Slippage=5
StopLoss=40
TakeProfit=50
Remark2=
Remark3=== HiLo Settings ==
BarStart=0
InitialRange=10
WinPercent=51.0
MinimumSuccessScore=1.0
MinimumConfidence=90


Still no trades placed even though counter trades are 63% success and trading style is set as counter trend.

Don't know why it can't automate trades for itself now, I must have an incorrect setting somewhere, tried with and withought MM on a 25k demo account.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: counter 2 days in.gif Size: 40 KB
The greatest force on earth is compound interest.
  • #174
  • Jan 16, 2010 11:07am Jan 16, 2010 11:07am
For those of you having trouble getting this EA to place a trade, here are my trades from last week.

Settings should be easy enough to reverse-engineer.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1-16-2010 12-07-32 PM.png Size: 81 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: hilo example1.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #175
  • Jan 16, 2010 11:10am Jan 16, 2010 11:10am
Quoting Ronald Raygun
EA won't work on the daily TF at all. It's currently based on the daily high and low. I suggest 1M charts to start out. Step the timeframe up as you need to.
My advice guys,

Trade manualy,if you dont have time to trade learn day trading and learn money..I have big colection of EA-s,but just colection i dont trade any of EA...


Viva Manualy trading
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #176
  • Jan 16, 2010 11:13am Jan 16, 2010 11:13am
Quoting sebastionay
here are my settings.
Remark1=== Main Settings ==
MagicNumber=32095
SignalsOnly=0
Alerts=true
SignalMail=true
PlaySounds=0
ECNBroker=0
EachTickMode=1
CloseOnOppositeSignal=0
Lots=0.01000000
MoneyManagement=true
Risk=1
Slippage=5
[FONT=Courier...
Try setting minimum success score to 0. I need to double check, but I think when both WinPercent and Minimum SuccessScore are non-zero, both must be satisfied. (One trading style is greater, and one style is lesser).

Edit: Confirmed
  • #177
  • Jan 16, 2010 11:16am Jan 16, 2010 11:16am
Thanks Ive just changed it and put it back on. I notice Bar start is at 0 is that a problem?
The greatest force on earth is compound interest.
  • #178
  • Jan 16, 2010 11:17am Jan 16, 2010 11:17am
Quoting sebastionay
Thanks Ive just changed it and put it back on. I notice Bar start is at 0 is that a problem?
Startbar 0 will use every bar on the chart.
  • #179
  • Jan 17, 2010 3:49am Jan 17, 2010 3:49am
Quoting Ronald Raygun
For those of you having trouble getting this EA to place a trade, here are my trades from last week.

Settings should be easy enough to reverse-engineer.
I had this running all week on some settings which actually seem quite similar to what I can ascertain yours are, however it didn't take any trades. I think that's because I had WinPercent & MinimumSuccess set to something.

Just trying to extrapolate your settings.. the SL & TP are simple enough from the trade list. The settings which are hard to figure out are the BarStart and Initialrange - because the numbers of trades produced in the optimizer are dependent on each of these. i.e. There are a very large number of permutations which would provide the same number of test trades.

What I've figured out presently gives a counter win percent of 53.56%, which is close but not quite right..

I'm guessing that the Initialrange is between 10-35, as the earliest trade that gets taken is at 00:35. The BarStart is entirely dependent on this Initialrange. The SL & TP are self-evident.

I don't think any of the other EA settings will change the optimizer result numbers.

Am I on the right track?
  • #180
  • Jan 17, 2010 8:18am Jan 17, 2010 8:18am
Thanks, I am sorry for my mistake.

Regards
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