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GbpUsd 5 min breakout

  • #461
  • Jan 16, 2010 4:49am Jan 16, 2010 4:49am
+250 pips does not mean you are necessarily profitable.

max
Gravity goes both ways in forex...
  • #462
  • Jan 16, 2010 5:32am Jan 16, 2010 5:32am
Quoting max pips
+250 pips does not mean you are necessarily profitable.

max
yeah, please post your gain or loss in % thx
Never whishing, always trading.
  • #463
  • Jan 16, 2010 7:55am Jan 16, 2010 7:55am
Hmmmmmm

If we use the same MM strategy throughout our trading for this system, and we are 250 pips up this month.............how can we not be in profit this month?

FX

I am looking into binaries as an option for this but have done nothing about it as yet. I'll let you know as soon as i have anything to tell.

The reason I need results in the WWLWWLLWWWL format is because as I said in my first post here, I'm trading this system differently with regards to MM. I dont want to hijack the thread but I will explain briefly for you.

I think that the win to loss ratio with this system, and the fact that we have a 1:1 risk reward ratio could lend itself to a short term aggresive MM system.

For instance, you could start with £100 and risk it all, twice. Then use £200 and risk it all twice. Then use £400 and risk it all twice and so on. If you lose, go back to a level where You are risking half of your BR.

It's a Martingale system with a difference.

Had we started this in Nov, by the first week in Jan we'd have gone fron £100 to £25000 simply by trading this system and my MM stratey.

And dont forget that we only risked £100 of our own money!!

So you see, I am only interested in whether we won the trade or not. I dont care about doubling up or how many pips we made.

I will repeat what I said earlier, that it is a short term strategy, but its one that is working very well right now.

The problem comes when trying to risk such a high % of your BR without getting a margin call. Spread betting allows us to get closer to this amount but not all of it. Binaries however, MIGHT allow us to do this, that is where my interest in them comes in.

I am not recomending this MM system to anyone else. There is a good chance you willloose your initial BR.

  • #464
  • Jan 16, 2010 8:03am Jan 16, 2010 8:03am
I suppose it really comes down to whether or not the market is trending or stuck in a range...As is evident from this week we were stuck in a range for most of it even though we managed to squeeze a few winners out of it..If we could determine early enough that cable is gonna range for a while it might be worth looking at GBP/JPY for those few days or for that week. It appears to be a pretty volatile pair and switching over to trade it at those times might be a worthwhile option. But I might be wrong..... I agree with Hove that the profitability of this method can only be measured in % gain or loss as lot size is adjusted sometimes. I still reckon we need to figure out a filter. I wouldn't enter until the 5 min candle has closed outside the box and as a result it has saved my bacon several times already but it does mean that I have to monitor the trade throughout the day......
  • #465
  • Jan 16, 2010 8:17am Jan 16, 2010 8:17am
Quoting fxblinkers
I suppose it really comes down to whether or not the market is trending or stuck in a range...As is evident from this week we were stuck in a range for most of it even though we managed to squeeze a few winners out of it..If we could determine early enough that cable is gonna range for a while it might be worth looking at GBP/JPY for those few days or for that week. It appears to be a pretty volatile pair and switching over to trade it at those times might be a worthwhile option. But I might be wrong..... I agree with Hove that the profitability...

Can you help me understand how we could be down after a 250 pip gain with a constant MM system please. Maybe I need to re assess this because, as far as I can work out, We would be in profit?

You're right about a filter it would certainly help but, the results so far are pretty impressive without a filter.

I had a VERY quick look at EUR/JPY last night and it didnt look so good with many false break outs. However, it did look like we might be able to filter a lot of them by only trading retraced break outs or some kind of refined filter in that area.

Incidently

If we can accurately predict a range for cable, try this:

When our entry is triggered, enter in the opposite direction and tp at the other end of the box!

Many pips to be had............If we can predict the range!
  • #466
  • Jan 16, 2010 8:46am Jan 16, 2010 8:46am
Hi Intel,

For what its worth I agree with the poster that it would be possible to have a positive pip amount at the end of the month and still lose money. this is simply because you maigh have 2 days where we win on the first trade and the third day lose on the second side of the trade after staking a double lot. So if we were risking 3% per day..you may have two days winning on the first trade only where you woulod have gained 1 + 1 % = 2%, and lose the third day -1% - 2% = -3%. The number of pips are not important as risk is measured in terms of %..so it would be possible to be positive pips and lose...

The result have been really impressive for Nov and Dec but long term could be different so IMHO I think a filter or t least discretion is needed...

Also, I mentioned to check out GBP/JPY and not EUR/JPY..may it was a type error in your post but maybe just have a look at that pair. The eur/jpy doesn't appear to be volatile enough consistently for this method so a GBP pair would be better suited..

I will have a look at your suggestion as I was thinking the same myself this week but I suoppose the difficulty is determining when cable is trending and not trending.. I have to go out now but I would like to chat to you some more about your staking plan mentioned in your earlier post. I have a few ideas that are not to do with this method that could well be applied to your plan... I'll be in touch with you later............

Blinkers..........

Quoting Intel
Can you help me understand how we could be down after a 250 pip gain with a constant MM system please....
  • #467
  • Jan 16, 2010 9:06am Jan 16, 2010 9:06am
[quote=fxblinkers;3371870]Hi Intel,

For what its worth I agree with the poster that it would be possible to have a positive pip amount at the end of the month and still lose money. this is simply because you maigh have 2 days where we win on the first trade and the third day lose on the second side of the trade after staking a double lot. So if we were risking 3% per day..you may have two days winning on the first trade only where you woulod have gained 1 + 1 % = 2%, and lose the third day -1% - 2% = -3%. The number of pips are not important as risk is measured in terms of %..so it would be possible to be positive pips and lose...

quote]

Ah I see, I was assuming a consistant trading amount. If we martingale then of course, we can lose whilst gaining pips. Sorry for my confusion.

I said about EUR/JPY simply cos I just happened to look at it last night. No other reason.

I've been trying to filter cable for a while now but come up with nowt really. If I can filter even 2 or 3 trades a month, it could mean a MASSIVE difference with my MM. A more consistant filter would be better with Cains system.

See ya later
  • #468
  • Jan 16, 2010 11:43am Jan 16, 2010 11:43am
The box size changes, one day it may be 10 pips, the next 100, however the win / lose value remains the same - ie if you lose you lose 2.5%, if you win you win 2.5% regardless of the amount of pips traded.

Trade 1 +100 pips = +2.5%
2 -10 = -2.5%
3 - 15 = -2.5%
4 +50 + 2.5%
5 -30 = -2.5%
6 +80 = + 2.5%
7 -40 = - 2.5%
8 -12 = - 2.5%
9 + 140 = + 2.5%
10 - 13 = -2.5%

There you go, plus 250 pips, - 5%. You should be trading a % of your balance per trade.

Max
Gravity goes both ways in forex...
  • #469
  • Jan 16, 2010 1:08pm Jan 16, 2010 1:08pm
Quoting Intel

Incidently

If we can accurately predict a range for cable, try this:

When our entry is triggered, enter in the opposite direction and tp at the other end of the box!

Many pips to be had............If we can predict the range!
Sorry...this is unclear to me...please elaborate.

Thanks,
BC
  • #470
  • Jan 16, 2010 1:38pm Jan 16, 2010 1:38pm
Quoting Bobcat2
Sorry...this is unclear to me...please elaborate.

Thanks,
BC

If we can say that it will not trend today but range instead, then when our entry is triggered (say, sell) we would buy and watch it retrace to our other entry point which has become our tp.

Basicly, trending market trade outside the box, ranging market trade inside the box.

But.......and this is a HUGE but, we have to accurately predict whether it will trend or range.
  • #471
  • Jan 16, 2010 2:18pm Jan 16, 2010 2:18pm
Hi guys,

I suppose that we could have assumed that there was a chance we would range this week on cable as we approached the 50% fib retracment on the daily. The more I look at it the more it jumps off the screen at me. In hindsight if I had been doing my homework correctly I shouldn't have traded the BO as price approached the 50 fib. As for myself I will make it a point to check the larger picture each day to determine whether or not to take the trade or maybe trade an equally volatile pair for that period until the daily breaks from obvious S&R or major round numbers and important fib lines. Maybe then there is a possibility to increase risk in terms of lot size alongside increased probability of a win.... Maybe with a bit more research this might end up being a pretty consistent method of trading...especially if we use the entry as is and explore ways exiting with a higher RR ratio... Apologies if I'm getting too far away from the core method.... Any sign of Cain anywhere...I wouldn't mind his input into this....................

Blinkers........
  • #472
  • Jan 17, 2010 3:27am Jan 17, 2010 3:27am
Quoting Archie
That is not correct according to my tests. I am forward testing this system, though only visually, and my results for the first 2 weeks of this year is approx. +250 pips. The first week was however much better than this one, but still, both were profitable.

How did you do your tests? What broker? How are the results for everyone else?
I am running a test between 7 and 8 GMT (the original being 7), and at 8 GMT I get results like yours. Did you use 7 or 8 GMT? For now, it looks like sticking to the system is the most profitable option (7 GMT),...

Hi Archie,
i am using Boston system (MT4); the MT4 time is the one of New York;
i am using the candles of 7:00, 7:05 and 7:10 GMT
i did a visual back test; added the spread for the long, doubled up if the first was a loser, closed the pending trades next day at 23:00; buffer equal 10 pip; SL equal square height + 10 pip buffer; TP equal Square height + 10 pip buffer;
as example for Friday:

 

  1. the box size is 41pip
  2. Short trade: Entry at 1.6296, TP at 1.6245, SL at 1.6347
  3. Long trade: Spread equal 3 pip: Entry at 1.6359, TP at 1.641, SL at 1.6308

please correct me if i am doing something wrong

Here are my results for January 2010:

04/01: -23pip / +23pip / +23 pip -- Total: +23pip
05/01: +47 pip -- Total: 47 pip
06/01: +31pip / -31 pip -- Total: 0 pip
07/01: -41pip / -41pip / -41pip -- Total: -123 pip (the double up trade closed the next day)
08/01: +23 pip -- Total: +23 pip
11/01: +50pip /-50pip -- Total: 0 pip
12/01: -48 pip / +48pip / +48 pip -- Total: +48 pip
13/01: -27pip / +27pip / +27pip -- Total: 27pip
14/01: -36pip / -36pip / -36pip -- Total: -108 pip
15/01: 51pip -- Total: 51 pip


Total for now equals -12pip
so for the time when i posted earlier, we was -63 pip (sorry for my visual mistake folks), and now due to a good Friday, we are at -12pip.

hope the two coming weeks will be much better

Cheers

  • #473
  • Jan 17, 2010 3:36am Jan 17, 2010 3:36am
Quoting fxblinkers
I suppose it really comes down to whether or not the market is trending or stuck in a range...As is evident from this week we were stuck in a range for most of it even though we managed to squeeze a few winners out of it..If we could determine early enough that cable is gonna range for a while it might be worth looking at GBP/JPY for those few days or for that week. It appears to be a pretty volatile pair and switching over to trade it at those times might be a worthwhile option. But I might be wrong........

Hi,
can you please elaborate?
do you mean that you are placing you order at 7:20 GMT?
using this method and i just did a visual check up, i couldn't see how it will be beneficial for us, since the 7:20 GMT candle rarely triggered a trade

thank you
  • #474
  • Edited 6:51am Jan 17, 2010 5:31am | Edited 6:51am
Quoting max pips
The box size changes, one day it may be 10 pips, the next 100, however the win / lose value remains the same - ie if you lose you lose 2.5%, if you win you win 2.5% regardless of the amount of pips traded.

Trade 1 +100 pips = +2.5%
2 -10 = -2.5%
3 - 15 = -2.5%
4 +50 + 2.5%
5 -30 = -2.5%
6 +80 = + 2.5%
7 -40 = - 2.5%
8 -12 = - 2.5%
9 + 140 = + 2.5%
10 - 13 = -2.5%

There you go, plus 250 pips, - 5%. You should be trading a % of your balance per trade.

Max

Hi,

Yes I agree that only the number of pips doesn't show if the system is profitable or not. But showing the gains in % doesn't necessarily show a good system either, because the percentage also reflect the amount/lots risked. A high % can be caused by few winnings with a high amount risked, and gains in % should therefore always be presented with your risk %.

When presenting my results I was a bit quick, because I didn't explain that I have calculated the number of pips in relation to the lots risked. The first trade equals one unit and the result is hence equal to the number of pips earned or lost. A second trade after a loser is equal to two units, and will therefore affect my pip balance with the double amount. I am aware that this way of presenting the result is not really correct (since it's not really actual pips I am counting), but I have found it the best way for me, since I want to evaluate the system regardsless of the actual amount risked. Since I always calculate results like this, I didn't reflect over this in my last post.


Regards

Archie
  • #475
  • Jan 17, 2010 5:48am Jan 17, 2010 5:48am
Quoting IceBerg
Hi Archie,
i am using Boston system (MT4); the MT4 time is the one of New York;
i am using the candles of 7:00, 7:05 and 7:10 GMT
i did a visual back test; added the spread for the long, doubled up if the first was a loser, closed the pending trades next day at 23:00; buffer equal 10 pip; SL equal square height + 10 pip buffer; TP equal Square height + 10 pip buffer;
as example for Friday:
[list][*]the box size is 41pip[*]Short trade: Entry at 1.6296, TP at 1.6245, SL at 1.6347[*]Long trade: Spread equal 3 pip: Entry at 1.6359, TP at 1.641,...

Hi,

I see that you have calculated your results almost as I have, but the total differ a lot, and I don't know why. This can be because of different brokers, quotes etc. I have been very cautious when prices only touched my TP/SL and always calculated with the worst outcome. Either way, here are my results for the first two weeks, in the same form as yours, not taking into account the amount risked, and doubling the pips when doubling the second order.

04/01: -33/+33/+33 -- Total: +33
05/01: +55,4 -- Total: +55,4
06/01: +40/-40 -- Total: 0
07/01: -52,4/+52,4/+52,4 -- Total: +52,4
08/01: +29,2 -- Total: +29,2
11/01: +57,2 -- Total: +57,2
12/01: -55,9/+55,9/+55,9 -- Total: +55,9
13/01: -38,9/+38,9/+38,9 -- Total: +38,9
14/01: -44,8/-44,8/-44,8 -- Total: -134,4
15/01: +58,6 -- Total: +58,6

TOTAL: +246,2


Regards

Archie
  • #476
  • Jan 17, 2010 6:57am Jan 17, 2010 6:57am
Hi..

I'm not exactly sure what your question is as I never mentioned anything about placing a trade at 7.20am in my posts...However, you may have misunderstood what I said about entering when 5min candle closes. What I meant is that I only enter when a 5min candle closes outside my BO box. I also only activate my stoploss when the same thing occurs on the opposite side. Its surprising how many times that this will prevent us from getting into false breakouts and also from losing trades. I know we sacrafice a few pips but they are easily won back this way.....

Quoting IceBerg
Hi,
can you please elaborate?
do you mean that you are placing you order at 7:20 GMT?
using this method and i just did a visual check up, i couldn't see how it will be beneficial for us, since the 7:20 GMT candle rarely triggered a trade

thank you
  • #477
  • Jan 17, 2010 1:07pm Jan 17, 2010 1:07pm
Quoting Archie
Hi,

I see that you have calculated your results almost as I have, but the total differ a lot, and I don't know why. This can be because of different brokers, quotes etc. I have been very cautious when prices only touched my TP/SL and always calculated with the worst outcome. Either way, here are my results for the first two weeks, in the same form as yours, not taking into account the amount risked, and doubling the pips when doubling the second order.

04/01: -33/+33/+33 -- Total: +33
05/01: +55,4 -- Total: +55,4
06/01: +40/-40 -- Total: 0
07/01:...

Hi Archie,
i can see why:
on the 7th of Jan, you have considered the doubled trade as a winner while it is a loser one. the cable dropped down for max 36 pip down of the box and retracted back to close the doubled trade as a looser (it should have dropped for at least 41 pip to close it as a winner)
also on the 11th of Jan, you didn't enter the second trade which was -50 pip

cheers
  • #478
  • Jan 17, 2010 1:09pm Jan 17, 2010 1:09pm
Quoting fxblinkers
Hi..

I'm not exactly sure what your question is as I never mentioned anything about placing a trade at 7.20am in my posts...However, you may have misunderstood what I said about entering when 5min candle closes. What I meant is that I only enter when a 5min candle closes outside my BO box. I also only activate my stoploss when the same thing occurs on the opposite side. Its surprising how many times that this will prevent us from getting into false breakouts and also from losing trades. I know we sacrafice a few pips but they are easily won back...
it looks like i miss understood you
clear now, thank you; it looks like a pretty filter

cheers
  • #479
  • Jan 17, 2010 1:37pm Jan 17, 2010 1:37pm
Quoting IceBerg
Hi Archie,
i can see why:
on the 7th of Jan, you have considered the doubled trade as a winner while it is a loser one. the cable dropped down for max 36 pip down of the box and retracted back to close the doubled trade as a looser (it should have dropped for at least 41 pip to close it as a winner)
also on the 11th of Jan, you didn't enter the second trade which was -50 pip

cheers

Hi again,

I have re-checked my charts and according to them it is correct. I double up even on the following day. I don't know if this is following the original rules, but I have found it profitable. On the 7th Jan the first order (sell, not a buy order) was a loser, I doubled up and the next day the pending buy was triggered and reached its TP. On the 11th Jan the buy hit its TP and the sell was not triggered with my broker. Perhaps your broker have different quotes.


Regards

Archie
  • #480
  • Jan 17, 2010 6:16pm Jan 17, 2010 6:16pm
Quoting Cain_
Hi guys! I'm back! I lost my pc, and more incredibly... I was "hacked". So I could not access my mail accounts or my FF account. So I decided to create a new account for safety reasons, l will ask the moderation team to "block my old user, now I'm Cain_!
Interesting to see so many people around here, I will catch up as soon as I can!


Happy pips!

Sorry to hear about your woes

Good to have you back tho
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