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Silent Service Method

  • #6,721
  • Edited 11:48am Jan 16, 2010 2:59am | Edited 11:48am
Chris, I have been practicing on drawing S/R for the last week. One thing which struck me was the fact that major pairs like, EU, GU, etc leave me with too many S/R zones to content with. Whereas, some other pairs like EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD have lesser S/R zones and tend to give me lesser but bigger room for trades. So, I was thinking maybe trading on major pairs is not such a good idea. Whats your take on it?

Edit: Scratch that. I always end up with messing my charts. They look more like cave drawing. Anyhow some help.
  • #6,722
  • Jan 16, 2010 4:19am Jan 16, 2010 4:19am
what would happen to my sl if i'd shorted thi stock?
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=BARE&b=1
  • #6,723
  • Jan 16, 2010 8:17am Jan 16, 2010 8:17am
Quoting clockwork71
True, but back in the dark ages.....I was...
OK, good that this time is over now. Because I think trading the whole day is not a good way of life. But I did this, too, when I traded manually my first times. It was not a pleasure and after a few months I stopped it and went on to EAs. I did not give up scalping, just made it less time consuming, since I want to live a normal life.

All in all I glad to see that other traders had had the same problems I had and learned by them.
  • #6,724
  • Jan 16, 2010 9:38am Jan 16, 2010 9:38am
Quoting Centaure
OK, good that this time is over now. Because I think trading the whole day is not a good way of life. But I did this, too, when I traded manually my first times. It was not a pleasure and after a few months I stopped it and went on to EAs. I did not give up scalping, just made it less time consuming, since I want to live a normal life.

All in all I glad to see that other traders had had the same problems I had and learned by them.
True. Actually, I have a friend that is still scalping, but he does it only for something like 2 hours a day - which is much better I believe. (If you were to do it at all.) But I prefer less stress. In fact, it's not all that uncommon for me to forget about a position for hours on end, only to realize...."Oh yeah, I shorted the Euro last night, wonder how it's going?" A lot different than those days, for sure.
  • #6,725
  • Jan 16, 2010 4:00pm Jan 16, 2010 4:00pm
Hey guys,

It has been a long time since I last posted here, but I've been busy with many other things. Today I decided I wanted to get back in the game, and started scanning the charts again.

The first pair that caught my attention was EURCAD. It may not be an ideal setup, but I believe the short term orderflow will temporarily drive the price up. There is a double bottom at a level of historical support. I need this level's support to drive the MACD and other indicators' values up, creating convergences and driving prices up.

Because the trade is counter-trend, I will be setting a take profit level at the yellow area below the 61 Fib on the H1 chart, and I'll move the stop when the price approaches the SL-BE area.

In my view other pairs also support the short term EUR strength and CAD weakness. I'm curious to see what the market will do.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-01-16_EURCAD_H4.png Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-01-16_EURCAD_H1.png Size: 42 KB
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #6,726
  • Edited 5:48pm Jan 16, 2010 5:46pm | Edited 5:48pm
Quoting ttteee
what would happen to my sl if i'd shorted thi stock?
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=BARE&b=1

Here's the weekly...but on the H1 chart it gapped up $6, then flatlined...I wouldn't trade it with somebody else's account.LOL

http://i46.tinypic.com/14l7ndf.png



PS....I misread your post....I thought you were suggesting the trade....I think your stop would not be honored unless you used a GSO, maybe Chris could answer.
  • #6,727
  • Jan 16, 2010 6:07pm Jan 16, 2010 6:07pm
Quoting clockwork71
True. Actually, I have a friend that is still scalping, but he does it only for something like 2 hours a day - which is much better I believe. (If you were to do it at all.) But I prefer less stress. In fact, it's not all that uncommon for me to forget about a position for hours on end, only to realize...."Oh yeah, I shorted the Euro last night, wonder how it's going?" A lot different than those days, for sure.


Yeah, and that is how a successful trader wants to live, he wants to make money without becoming exhausted. But to come to this stage one has to have some experience to get a type of calmness into that business. Not every loss or profit makes you emotional any more.

The consequence of the coolness is that you sometimes forget about open positions because you a confident that the trading works as whole.

Some months ago, when I started to trade manually again I could not go out of my house without a notebook to check my open positions from everywhere. But things have changed that I check the positions usually in the evening when all meetings are done. And now I am happy that I can concentrate on other things during that time. I think the other things I have to do prevent me from becoming to crazy about prices going up and down and interpreting to much things into the chart which are not relevant and distract me from the essential parts of trading.
  • #6,728
  • Jan 16, 2010 6:08pm Jan 16, 2010 6:08pm
Quoting Centaure
Yeah, and that is how a successful trader wants to live, he wants to make money without becoming exhausted. But to come to this stage one has to have some experience to get a type of calmness into that business. Not every loss or profit makes you emotional any more.

The consequence of the coolness is that you sometimes forget about open positions because you a confident that the trading works as whole.

Some months ago, when I started to trade manually again I could not go out of my house without a notebook to check my open positions from everywhere....
Well put. Trading isn't the be-all-end-all of life. It should not be the focus of your life, or even day.

Anything else is a bad use of leverage......leverage of time that is.
  • #6,729
  • Jan 16, 2010 6:10pm Jan 16, 2010 6:10pm
Quoting Noloqy
Hey guys,

It has been a long time since I last posted here, but I've been busy with many other things. Today I decided I wanted to get back in the game, and started scanning the charts again.

The first pair that caught my attention was EURCAD. It may not be an ideal setup, but I believe the short term orderflow will temporarily drive the price up. There is a double bottom at a level of historical support. I need this level's support to drive the MACD and other indicators' values up, creating convergences and driving prices up.

Because the trade...

I was looking at that one as well. I am already in EUR/AUD, so I decided not to long the EUR twice.....
  • #6,730
  • Jan 16, 2010 6:28pm Jan 16, 2010 6:28pm
Quoting vicky_ag
Chris, I have been practicing on drawing S/R for the last week. One thing which struck me was the fact that major pairs like, EU, GU, etc leave me with too many S/R zones to content with. Whereas, some other pairs like EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD have lesser S/R zones and tend to give me lesser but bigger room for trades. So, I was thinking maybe trading on major pairs is not such a good idea. Whats your take on it?

Edit: Scratch that. I always end up with messing my charts. They look more like cave drawing. Anyhow some help.
Funny you should bring this up. Kulu and I were talking about this very thing today. I will try to be clear here, as this subject could be a little foggy if I am not careful.

My suspicion is that you are marking more lines than is necessary. (A very common thing amongst traders.) I tend to focus only on areas that show up on the weekly. As far as the majors are concerned, you tend to see a lot of areas at the 500 pip interval. This is not to say there won't be minor ones every 100 pips, but they tend to be just that - minor. Take the following example:

EUR/USD: draw a line at 1.50, 1.45, and 1.40. That really is all you need for the time being. Are there areas that will show up on the daily or 4 hour? Of course. But if you use those three areas as entry areas, you know you are going with the order flow. As far as a number like say.....1.47, well that's more for placing stops, and is a bit more involved that this post can get into. However, if a number like 1.38 is dead obvious, then use it! The odd numbers being major areas on the major pairs is pretty rare. I would say they account for about 10% of my areas typically.

So are there exceptions? Yes. USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF are those very exceptions. Why? The pip value is my theory. They are not multiples of 10 like the other majors. A pip in EUR/USD is $10. In USD/JPY, it fluctuates, but is roughly a multiple of 9. This is my theory at least. I am sure I could go and do some kind of research, but in the end - it just is. Who really cares why?

As far as crosses are concerned, think of what they really are: Mathematical representations of the following:

EUR/AUD - is the two pairs EUR/USD and AUD/USD. Remove the USD from both sides, and basically you get the answer. But because of this, typically it might make the areas at other round numbers. It won't always be 1.50, and in fact quite often isn't.

In my estimation, that's the truth. I think.
  • #6,731
  • Jan 16, 2010 6:31pm Jan 16, 2010 6:31pm
Quoting ttteee
what would happen to my sl if i'd shorted thi stock?
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=BARE&b=1
You would have had your S/L triggered when price went above or hit your price. In this case, your price got skipped over, so it get triggered at the next best available price. You would have gotten it handed to you I am afraid on this one.

The other type of stop could be a stop limit, which will only fill at a specific price. Which means you would still be in this trade. A very ugly situation to say the least.
  • #6,732
  • Jan 16, 2010 6:32pm Jan 16, 2010 6:32pm
Quoting Low
Here's the weekly...but on the H1 chart it gapped up $6, then flatlined...I wouldn't trade it with somebody else's account.LOL

http://i46.tinypic.com/14l7ndf.png



PS....I misread your post....I thought you were suggesting the trade....I think your stop would not be honored unless you used a GSO, maybe Chris could answer.
I would consider shorting this one at $22, only because that nasty gap could close, but damn......I would be nervous about it!
  • #6,733
  • Jan 16, 2010 6:44pm Jan 16, 2010 6:44pm
Check out this article. It reminds me of the AUD/USD chart lately. Great employment number, that beats expectations, yet .93 can't be broken with conviction.

http://www.tradingacademy.com/lesson...ex_article.htm
  • #6,734
  • Jan 17, 2010 5:32am Jan 17, 2010 5:32am
Quoting clockwork71
EUR/AUD - is the two pairs EUR/USD and AUD/USD. Remove the USD from both sides, and basically you get the answer. But because of this, typically it might make the areas at other round numbers. It won't always be 1.50, and in fact quite often isn't.
Interesting post. Do you think the market watches the USD pairs mostly when it comes to psychological levels? Which would consequently result in USD pairs having the most self fulfilling power! I have a theory that the less "common" a pair is, the smaller the impact of psychological levels (and all other signals) on price movement. This would also explain the fact that you find AUDNZD to be sloppy for example.
Also note that the mind sees what you want it to see, implying that if I put a random walk pattern in front of a technical analyst, he will start drawing SR lines, trend lines. The fact that pair quotes are triangular makes forex a lot harder to technically analyse than other markets in my opinion, because of the possibility for conflicting signals on other relevant pairs.

I'm curious what your view is on this topic.
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #6,735
  • Jan 17, 2010 7:12am Jan 17, 2010 7:12am
Quoting clockwork71
....

EUR/USD: draw a line at 1.50, 1.45, and 1.40. That really is all you need for the time being. Are there areas that will show up on the daily or 4 hour? Of course. But if you use those three areas as entry areas, you know you are going with the order flow. As far as a number like say.....1.47, well that's more for placing stops, and is a bit more involved that this post can get into. However, if a number like 1.38 is dead obvious, then use it! The odd numbers being major areas on the major pairs is pretty rare. I would...
What is the meaning of order flow? Does "to go with th order flow" mean that you find places (usually the S/R lines) where you find a lot of people trading at that time?
  • #6,736
  • Jan 17, 2010 10:09am Jan 17, 2010 10:09am
Quoting Noloqy
Interesting post. Do you think the market watches the USD pairs mostly when it comes to psychological levels? Which would consequently result in USD pairs having the most self fulfilling power! I have a theory that the less "common" a pair is, the smaller the impact of psychological levels (and all other signals) on price movement. This would also explain the fact that you find AUDNZD to be sloppy for example.
Also note that the mind sees what you want it to see, implying that if I put a random walk pattern in front of a technical analyst, he...

I believe that a lot of large players say things like "We are buying the EUR at 1.45", and it's really that simple. I don't worry too much about all the rest. I know that a lot of times they have levels they like. They have the large orders, and therefore set the prices. (Or, at least.....where price wont be.)

Chris
  • #6,737
  • Jan 17, 2010 10:11am Jan 17, 2010 10:11am
Quoting Centaure
What is the meaning of order flow? Does "to go with th order flow" mean that you find places (usually the S/R lines) where you find a lot of people trading at that time?
Yes. There are larger amounts at say....1.50 rather than 1.5040. (EXAMPLE)
  • #6,738
  • Jan 17, 2010 11:14am Jan 17, 2010 11:14am
Quoting clockwork71
Yes. There are larger amounts at say....1.50 rather than 1.5040. (EXAMPLE)
Hello
First thanks for your valuable view and replies
If you could give us your view about G/U that will be great
My Bias sell, I see current rally is classed as corrective. here it's my daily chart
Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: d1.gif Size: 77 KB
  • #6,739
  • Jan 17, 2010 11:37am Jan 17, 2010 11:37am
Hi all,

Been lurking here for a while and thought I'd make a contribution.

Anyone watching the FTSE - I think its ob and can see RSI divergence.

Anyone agree - Thinking of shorting at LO.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FTSE.jpg Size: 123 KB
  • #6,740
  • Jan 17, 2010 4:32pm Jan 17, 2010 4:32pm
Quoting egkid
Hello
First thanks for your valuable view and replies
If you could give us your view about G/U that will be great
My Bias sell, I see current rally is classed as corrective. here it's my daily chart
Thanks
See this chart, I believe it shows all you really need to know about this pair.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.png Size: 43 KB
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