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Stop fooling yourself; There is no system

  • #161
  • Jan 14, 2010 6:15pm Jan 14, 2010 6:15pm
Don't know why the original poster feels that no one can make good money consistently in the market. It depends on what your strategy is and how well you implement it. My account is up 30% so far this month, however i have far more losing trades than winners. I can tell you right now, Making money in the market is not so hard however if your going to approach it as No one can make money in the market, your going to have a difficult time.
"The market doesn't beat them, they beat themselves" - J. Livermore
  • #162
  • Jan 14, 2010 6:39pm Jan 14, 2010 6:39pm
Personal failure extrapolation. We create our concept of reality to minimise the pain of our failings. It is less painful for the OP to come to the conclusion that long term profitability is impossible and their failure was inevitable rather than the alternative; the failure, loss and pain they experienced was their responsibility.
  • #163
  • Jan 15, 2010 12:51am Jan 15, 2010 12:51am
Vlad you goose......... the strat one trades is only scalable up to a maximum size at which point the spread becomes so stoopid and the psychological strain becomes so great that one cannot keep up the compounding mate.
Daytrading at 50K a pip............. theoretical nonsense ....come back to the real world.

P.S another profitable year for all the pro traders out there ...i dont know one full time trader who made a loss in 2009.......... for eg one friend trading stocks only made 60% instead of his usual 80-90% in recent years.
PPS this guy has 15 years of results averaging 75% per year with no negative years.......is he therefore a gadzillionare ??????? nope.... just wealthy.
  • #164
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:20am Jan 15, 2010 1:20am
its not gambling!!!!!!!!!
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE AND NOT WHAT YOU EXPECT
  • #165
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:31am Jan 15, 2010 2:31am
Vlad the forex impaler.
  • #166
  • Jan 15, 2010 4:04am Jan 15, 2010 4:04am
Quoting khalidsafdar
its not gambling!!!!!!!!!
Yes it is to a degree as we can never guarantee the out come. That's why we use stoploss orders to manage our risk.
  • #167
  • Jan 15, 2010 4:23am Jan 15, 2010 4:23am
Quoting >Apocalypto<
Yes it is to a degree as we can never guarantee the out come. That's why we use stoploss orders to manage our risk.
Then you may as well say that everything we do (in life) is gambling. Running any business is a gamble. Driving to work in the morning is a gamble (we can't guarantee we will make it there).

So we need to view this with a little perspective. It's not gambling blindly - like playing roulette.
  • #168
  • Jan 15, 2010 7:19am Jan 15, 2010 7:19am
Stop fooling yourself. There is no system.

very true there is no such automated system.
  • #169
  • Jan 15, 2010 7:52am Jan 15, 2010 7:52am
Quoting DanUK
Then you may as well say that everything we do (in life) is gambling. Running any business is a gamble. Driving to work in the morning is a gamble (we can't guarantee we will make it there).

So we need to view this with a little perspective. It's not gambling blindly - like playing roulette.
that's my point..................

Why is it not so???

So true every time I jump in my car and drive I am taking a gamble, consant exposure to this action nulls the risk that it actually posses in the conscious to the subconscious. . Every time I hit the T on my IB orders it's a gamble.... either my TP is hit or my SL, I have no control over the outcome no matter how good the signal is.

So you think trading is different to blackjack or roulette, how? Both can have systems applied to better the odds (whether they do or not is another post). Both have idiots that don't manage risk and blow all their cash in one day or spin/trade...

please tell me.....
  • #170
  • Jan 15, 2010 7:59am Jan 15, 2010 7:59am
Quoting Vlad
And there is no one who knows how to trade. If there was, W. Buffet would be his butler and Bill Gates his foot chair. 5% per month, which many "traders" find to be laughable, make 1 trillion dollars out of $50 in less than 40 years. Unless you are a fat rat from a Federal reserve with insider's info, trading is glorified gambling no more and no less. Only ones who win are those who are lucky and quit early. Sorry.

That's all false. So false I feel for you because I wonder why you're on a trading forum
  • #171
  • Jan 15, 2010 8:22am Jan 15, 2010 8:22am
False.

There is is not "a system", there are many systems.

I have clawed myself from the belief that there is no way to beat the market to a calm assurance that I can walk into any market in the world and profit. It took my 5 years of study and losses to "get it".

The answer to success in the financial markets lies within you. You, you YOU! Turn off your investment advisory service, delete your forum registrations and lock yourself in your room for 10 hours a day, dragging the chart one candle at a time until you "get it". I almost gave up on trading until one Saturday, I went into my room and locked the door and decided that I would leave that room as a trader or give up on trading entirely. For 14 hours I pulled the chart, 1 candle at a time, and "traded" in an Excel document. Accross that period of time, I followed my system and "averaged" 5% per week using no leverage. From that point on, I stuck with my plan realizing that all of those wise saying the professionals repeat over and over again mean something.

If you really, really wish to be a trader, treat this like a business. If you were an accountant and could never quite understand a balance sheet, you would spend the weekends studying until you "got it". Trading is no different in that it is a job...why do you spend zero time on it and expect profit?
  • #172
  • Jan 15, 2010 8:33am Jan 15, 2010 8:33am
Exactly
  • #173
  • Jan 15, 2010 8:38am Jan 15, 2010 8:38am
Quoting >Apocalypto<
that's my point..................

Why is it not so???

So true every time I jump in my car and drive I am taking a gamble, consant exposure to this action nulls the risk that it actually posses in the conscious to the subconscious. . Every time I hit the T on my IB orders it's a gamble.... either my TP is hit or my SL, I have no control over the outcome no matter how good the signal is.

So you think trading is different to blackjack or roulette, how? Both can have systems applied to better the odds (whether they do or not is another post)....
Indeed... though if you are a good driver you take every necessary step and precaution to ensure you get to where you want to go without coming into trouble.

Roulette is chance - pure and simple. There is no logic to the outcome, just lucky if you win, unlucky if you don't (although the odds are purposely stacked against you). In trading this is not the case - sure there will be some people who think they know how to trade and are in fact gambling but if you understand the market you will understand where to trade and in what direction. The market is simply a buy/sell mechanism, it is not a random collection of events. Everything that happens (and I am not talking about ten pip moves here and there) happens for a reason.
  • #174
  • Jan 15, 2010 9:24am Jan 15, 2010 9:24am
Quoting DanUK
Indeed... though if you are a good driver you take every necessary step and precaution to ensure you get to where you want to go without coming into trouble.
you maybe the most careful driver taking every precaution you can, that will not help you if a car swerves into your lane at the last second and hits you head on.....

Quote
Roulette is chance - pure and simple. There is no logic to the outcome, just lucky if you win, unlucky if you don't (although the odds are purposely stacked against you). In trading this is not the case - sure there will be some people who think they know how to trade and are in fact gambling but if you understand the market you will understand where to trade and in what direction. The market is simply a buy/sell mechanism, it is not a random collection of events. Everything that happens (and I am not talking about ten...
So you have a reason but that does not help your chances of being right, looking at anything after the fact makes sense, when it's real time at the moment it's a whole new game. roulette is not random every spin is unique in it's sequence for that point in time. just like that tick is in the market......
  • #175
  • Jan 15, 2010 9:36am Jan 15, 2010 9:36am
Quoting >Apocalypto<
you maybe the most careful driver taking every precaution you can, that will not help you if a car swerves into your lane at the last second and hits you head on.....

So you have a reason but that does not help your chances of being right, looking at anything after the fact makes sense, when it's real time at the moment it's a whole new game. roulette is not random every spin is unique in it's sequence for that point in time. just like that tick is in the market......
Ok, I am not going to argue for the sake of arguing. My point is that if you know what you are doing then you are not blindly jumping in hoping that you get lucky.

My reasons for taking a trade do increase my chances of being right. I trade based on the long term trend, where there is evidence that buyers outweigh sellers or sellers outweigh buyers. If you take the right side you increase your chance of winning if you pick the wrong side you increase your chance of loosing.

Just because a roulette wheel spin is unique does not make the outcome any less random. If you can show me a proven way to win playing roulette then I will fly you to vegas and you can play all my money and make me a multi-millionaire in one night. Sound like a plan?
  • #176
  • Edited 10:13am Jan 15, 2010 10:02am | Edited 10:13am
Quoting DanUK
Ok, I am not going to argue for the sake of arguing. My point is that if you know what you are doing then you are not blindly jumping in hoping that you get lucky.
I never said nor discussed the fact you or someone had no idea.
Quote
My reasons for taking a trade do increase my chances of being right. I trade based on the long term trend, where there is evidence that buyers outweigh sellers or sellers outweigh buyers. If you take the right side you increase your chance of winning if you pick the wrong side you increase your chance of loosing.
No they don't. No matter what you may believe, even if you're right 99.9999% of the time the next trade no matter the trend or the system can guarantee you will be right on it. that's a fact of trading or investing. I trade a system, i tell myself that same every time I take a trade, helps to keep me clear, and keep my ego in line.

Quote
Just because a roulette wheel spin is unique does not make the outcome any less random. If you can show me a proven way to win playing roulette then I will fly you to vegas and you can play all my money and make me a multi-millionaire in one night. Sound like a plan?
If you have a MASSIVE account to bet with then there is a system that has odds as good to better then any trading system.... Martingale, but this opens up a new discussion..... The casinos are already aware of this approach hence they implemented table limits.

What makes any signal in the market any less random if you can't look at a chart and pick every next directional change???

No one is arguing here, you questioned my post so now I am questioning your replies. I belive in signal trading i do it... but what I do live by and respect is the market does what it likes no matter what i think it will do. If this is the case then yes I do think it's random. But by the same token I think it's predictable cuz I trade set retracement signal patterns that make me profitable.

Good trading and respect to you for staying civil.
  • #177
  • Jan 15, 2010 10:05am Jan 15, 2010 10:05am
if you trade a system you already know you're trading probabilities. what are you arguing here? that everything is not random is a dumb argument, not even worth going into
  • #178
  • Jan 15, 2010 10:14am Jan 15, 2010 10:14am
Quoting Sim
if you trade a system you already know you're trading probabilities. what are you arguing here? that everything is not random is a dumb argument, not even worth going into
LOL do you actually look at the markets?

Go read Trading in the Zone mate, and come back to me.
  • #179
  • Jan 15, 2010 10:17am Jan 15, 2010 10:17am
Quoting Sim
if you trade a system you already know you're trading probabilities. what are you arguing here? that everything is not random is a dumb argument, not even worth going into
Past performance is no indicator of future success.

Every day a new day...yadda yadda yadda...
  • #180
  • Jan 15, 2010 10:18am Jan 15, 2010 10:18am
Yeah great reply...typical 'oh u must not trade LOL' ...dumb idiot
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