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GbpUsd 5 min breakout

  • #441
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:38am Jan 15, 2010 1:38am
Quoting Intel
Cheer up guys

It was a bad day for us but hey, we know its gonna happen.

Still a profitable system tho.
What was so bad about the trading session? Granted, the 1st trade was a loss. But...the 2nd Trade was doubled up...so when the price finally reached a profit level at 1/2 box size around close-out time of 2300 or so, the 2nd trade profit offset the 1st trade loss for a break-even scenario for the day. Not bad for a lousy ranging market.

This system is boss even when conditions suck. Let's make some green pips today!

What the heck happened to Cain?
  • #442
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:24am Jan 15, 2010 2:24am
Hmmmmmm............

Not sure about today guys, I think I'd leave it and look for a better opportunity on Monday.
  • #443
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:31am Jan 15, 2010 2:31am
My first post on the this forum. I have found this thread a few days ago and started demo trading using this strategy. Very interesting.

My apologies if this has been covered before but I did not see it. My question is about a possible situation where you may have two opposite positions. According to Cain's method, a position will remain open until 2300 GMT next day. Then it is possible that an opposite pending order set up the next day gets triggered. Hence you have two opposite positions.

I may have missunderstood something here, if not then has this happened to any of you? What do you do in this case, or you just accept it?

Thanks

Z
  • #444
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:54am Jan 15, 2010 2:54am
Quoting Zr-fx
My first post on the this forum. I have found this thread a few days ago and started demo trading using this strategy. Very interesting.

My apologies if this has been covered before but I did not see it. My question is about a possible situation where you may have two opposite positions. According to Cain's method, a position will remain open until 2300 GMT next day. Then it is possible that an opposite pending order set up the next day gets triggered. Hence you have two opposite positions.

I may have missunderstood something here, if not then...

Hi there and welcome on Cains behalf.

You are indeed correct. It is possible that before your first trade is over, the second trade will be triggered.

However, your SL for your first trade is at(or very near) the second entry point.

So, your first trade will always be exited at the sametime as you enter the second trade.


BTW its really worthwhile reading the entire thread start to finish. It will answer a lot of questions and give you a better understanding of the system.
  • #445
  • Jan 15, 2010 5:06am Jan 15, 2010 5:06am
Here we go...Entered short at 6298... could be a bit iffy as not with the long term trend but rules are rules eh!!!!!!!!!! I have a feeling that it might only go to support on 6250/60 area so I might jump off there.. (if it reaches there at all) Have any of you looked at GBP/JPY as an alternative to trade when cable is ranging like this??? Or maybe even to trade along side it so spread the risk.. it appears to be pretty volatile also and on ranging days might be a safer bet???
  • #446
  • Jan 15, 2010 5:15am Jan 15, 2010 5:15am
Quoting fxblinkers
Here we go...Entered short at 6298... could be a bit iffy as not with the long term trend but rules are rules eh!!!!!!!!!! I have a feeling that it might only go to support on 6250/60 area so I might jump off there.. (if it reaches there at all) Have any of you looked at GBP/JPY as an alternative to trade when cable is ranging like this??? Or maybe even to trade along side it so spread the risk.. it appears to be pretty volatile also and on ranging days might be a safer bet???

I have the support at about 6245.

You're right about 'the rules being the rules' you should trade the system as is until you have a refinement to make.

Hope we're lucky today
  • #447
  • Jan 15, 2010 5:15am Jan 15, 2010 5:15am
FX

Where did you get 6298 as an entry?
  • #448
  • Jan 15, 2010 5:39am Jan 15, 2010 5:39am
Thank you Intel. I will go through the thread again in case I missed anything.

With respect to your aswer about the SL, I was thinking of a scenario such as:

On day 1, we setup pending orders. Short gets triggered and then stopped out. The the Long gets triggered but never reaches TP so we let it run into next day.

On day 2, we setup another 2 pending orders based on the days range which is different from Day 1, such than levels between the two days overlap. Then later that morning the Short is triggered. In this case we will have two active but opposite trades.

Perhaps I am over complicating things and should just stick with the system and accept that it will not be perfect. 'Rules are rules'

Thanks again
  • #449
  • Jan 15, 2010 6:19am Jan 15, 2010 6:19am
Quoting Zr-fx
Thank you Intel. I will go through the thread again in case I missed anything.

With respect to your aswer about the SL, I was thinking of a scenario such as:

On day 1, we setup pending orders. Short gets triggered and then stopped out. The the Long gets triggered but never reaches TP so we let it run into next day.

On day 2, we setup another 2 pending orders based on the days range which is different from Day 1, such than levels between the two days overlap. Then later that morning the Short is triggered. In this case we will have two active...



Ah, I see what you're talking about.

My appologies.

Some brokers will average out trades, some will not(if in the same direction).

If in different direction, I would cancel the existing one and go with the new one.

I dont think we have considered this scenario so far. Big thanks for pointing it out

It's not something that I would come across cos I would close out BEFORE the next box on every trade.
  • #450
  • Jan 15, 2010 6:31am Jan 15, 2010 6:31am
Many thanks.

I will do as you say and cancel before the next one is triggered.

Z
  • #451
  • Jan 15, 2010 7:17am Jan 15, 2010 7:17am
Hi Intel,

I entered at the bottom of my box this morning..posted below...my actual entry was 6298 even though my box gave me a 6296 entry.. This is because I use MT4 for charting but my brokers (IG Index) price at that time was 6298...

Quoting Intel
FX

Where did you get 6298 as an entry?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15 jan.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #452
  • Jan 15, 2010 9:15am Jan 15, 2010 9:15am
Blinkers,

FWIW:
I use Oanda, and I had the exact same entry point as yours @ 1.6298
  • #453
  • Jan 15, 2010 10:37am Jan 15, 2010 10:37am
Winner, winner...chicken dinner!
  • #454
  • Jan 15, 2010 10:51am Jan 15, 2010 10:51am
Quoting Bobcat2
Blinkers,

FWIW:
I use Oanda, and I had the exact same entry point as yours @ 1.6298

I'm using FXCM and I got 6295.

I have a low of 6297 on the 09:05 candle. Did you get triggered by this?

I see we have a winning trade again today

It looked very dodgey for a while tho. Stick with the system.......it works!
  • #455
  • Jan 15, 2010 11:17am Jan 15, 2010 11:17am
another 59 pips in the bag...gonna be a good wkend... I also had a great short that I gonna close shortly on the eur/usd so happy days...
  • #456
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:55pm Jan 15, 2010 2:55pm
Quoting fxblinkers
... Have any of you looked at GBP/JPY as an alternative ...
I've set up my boxes on EUR/JPY and scrolled back for a "visual backtest" ... few fake-outs and many explosive winning moves
  • #457
  • Jan 15, 2010 3:10pm Jan 15, 2010 3:10pm
Quoting tbardolph
I've set up my boxes on EUR/JPY and scrolled back for a "visual backtest" ... few fake-outs and many explosive winning moves

If any of you have a history of another pair I really appreciate the results.

I'm peticularly interested if the results are in the form of

WWWLWLLWWLWWWLWLLWWWW

So each W or L is a trade not a day

Many thanks
  • #458
  • Jan 15, 2010 6:39pm Jan 15, 2010 6:39pm
Quoting Intel
If any of you have a history of another pair I really appreciate the results.

I'm peticularly interested if the results are in the form of

WWWLWLLWWLWWWLWLLWWWW

So each W or L is a trade not a day

Many thanks
Hi Intel,

I presume that the reason you are interested in results in that format is for binary betting that you mentioned in an earlier post.. Would you mind explaining the approach you are taking...I am working on a few other things at the moment but the more I study fx I am beginning to see how binary bets could be very profitable using the correct staking plan and proper bet sizes... I intend to explore this fully as soon as I have more time and when I have something worthwhile to share I will keep you informed...if you are working on gathering info on a particular pair or method let me know so we don't end up both compiling the same result... I have spent a little time just playing with MT4 (using F12) on particular markets that are trending and meet certain rules of a system to predict the up/down market. I am getting a very high hit rate but I've not taken any of this too serious yet. However, I would be very interested in your opinion on this.... I know whenever the word 'martingale' is mentioned at forex factory there are members who warn us to stay away from it as it will eventually clean out your bank...however, I think it depends how it is applied... I would never use martingale but a properly calculated staking as used with sports betting can certainly be consistently profitable.. I spent some time researching sports betting about a year ago. I realize now how little I actually knew back then about MM but I still managed to have tremendous success....until one evening I lost about two weeks gains. The reason for this I feel was not fully understanding MM and probabilities. Now, every day as I learn more and more about trading and understanding PA I can get my mind off my previous research. Thats why I think you may be on to something with this method and gathering the results in WWLWLLWLWLL format... Am I on the right track here and if I'm not please ignore my rambling....

Blinkers...........
  • #459
  • Jan 16, 2010 1:14am Jan 16, 2010 1:14am
Quoting Intel
Cheer up guys

It was a bad day for us but hey, we know its gonna happen.

Still a profitable system tho.
Hi Intel,
not profitable this month! i back test it for this month and found that till now, we are -120 pips; maybe it is profitable for the long run, but the last week was a nightmare for everyone, luckily i was out of the market from Tuesday
hope the cable will stabilize and start trending!

cheers all
  • #460
  • Jan 16, 2010 4:37am Jan 16, 2010 4:37am
Quoting IceBerg
Hi Intel,
not profitable this month! i back test it for this month and found that till now, we are -120 pips; maybe it is profitable for the long run, but the last week was a nightmare for everyone, luckily i was out of the market from Tuesday
hope the cable will stabilize and start trending!

cheers all

That is not correct according to my tests. I am forward testing this system, though only visually, and my results for the first 2 weeks of this year is approx. +250 pips. The first week was however much better than this one, but still, both were profitable.

How did you do your tests? What broker? How are the results for everyone else?
I am running a test between 7 and 8 GMT (the original being 7), and at 8 GMT I get results like yours. Did you use 7 or 8 GMT? For now, it looks like sticking to the system is the most profitable option (7 GMT), according to my tests.


Regards

Archie
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