the indic tells future?! | Forex Factory

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the indic tells future?!

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Jan 31, 2010 9:57pm Jan 15, 2010 4:21am | Edited Jan 31, 2010 9:57pm
the indic attached is a moving average but extended to the future.
the past part is just same with normal MA came with MT4.
longer period MA shows longer future part, lets say about 70% of the period.
FMA25 shows 17 bars ahead, FMA200 does 140 bars ahead.
you can play this demo copy in this month. enjoy!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2
  • Jan 15, 2010 5:05am Jan 15, 2010 5:05am
That's an interesting indicator. Did you program it? Have you had any success with it?
Gone to a better place
  • #3
  • Jan 15, 2010 3:03pm Jan 15, 2010 3:03pm
Yep I made it last month.
It shows very well on demo account so far, I'm still testing though
at least I can see the GC and DC before it actually happen.
Since GC/DC not always make price up/down, we need find some
other filters and parameters, then it will be more effective.
I'm sure the potential of the indic coz it shows future.
Please everyone help me to testing this.
  • #4
  • Jan 15, 2010 4:31pm Jan 15, 2010 4:31pm
why not post the source code. Looks like nothing more than a moving average shifted rather than predicting the future.
  • #5
  • Jan 15, 2010 4:49pm Jan 15, 2010 4:49pm
If this is based on Moving Average only, its just another indicator trying to use the past to predict the future. Maybe a fractal calculation has a higher probability but I think someone would have tried before this.
  • #6
  • Jan 15, 2010 4:58pm Jan 15, 2010 4:58pm
Quoting magnumfreak
why not post the source code. Looks like nothing more than a moving average shifted rather than predicting the future.
Same impression.... but, I really know absolutely nothing about coding....
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #7
  • Jan 16, 2010 6:10pm Jan 16, 2010 6:10pm
Quoting magnumfreak
why not post the source code. Looks like nothing more than a moving average shifted rather than predicting the future.
t
Thank you for reply. I'm not a professional coder and shy enough to not show you the spaghetti... But the logic is not quite shifted ma.
  • #8
  • Jan 16, 2010 10:45pm Jan 16, 2010 10:45pm
Quoting CodeMeister
If this is based on Moving Average only, its just another indicator trying to use the past to predict the future. Maybe a fractal calculation has a higher probability but I think someone would have tried before this.
Thank you for reply. Will you please tell me where I can find the fractal calculation if you still know? I couldn't find any information about it in google... I didn't use any fractal so it's not same but could be similar,
I'm very interested in it.
  • #9
  • Jan 16, 2010 11:36pm Jan 16, 2010 11:36pm
Prediction MAs.. interesting..
Following this thread
  • #10
  • Jan 17, 2010 2:39am Jan 17, 2010 2:39am
I first encountered shifted MAs when I studied Ichimoku.

MAs are lagging indicators, because their calculation involves historical data. Shifting the curve to the right or left doesn't change the data points involved in the calculation of each point, and hence the shape of the curve.

For the lines to have a predictive quality, price would need to retreat toward its average, X points into the future. Personally, I would want to see strong statistical evidence in order to validate such an assumption. The screenshot in post #1 seems to show 4 lines heading off in significantly different directions.

Sorry to seem so negative, but I've yet to find any indicator that's capable of predicting the future. I hope you guys can prove me wrong, though.
  • #11
  • Jan 19, 2010 11:30pm Jan 19, 2010 11:30pm
Quoting CodeMeister
If this is based on Moving Average only, its just another indicator trying to use the past to predict the future. Maybe a fractal calculation has a higher probability but I think someone would have tried before this.
I've been searching the indicator you mentioned above, and found this "Evaluation of stock option prices by using the prediction of fractal time-series". Is this the one you talking? I thought it was the MT4 indicator or something about forex. The method above could be useful for forex too, but if it's not you said, and if you remember a little more plz give me a tip to find.
  • #12
  • Jan 20, 2010 2:14pm Jan 20, 2010 2:14pm
Quoting a2chawaii
I've been searching the indicator you mentioned above, and found this "Evaluation of stock option prices by using the prediction of fractal time-series". Is this the one you talking? I thought it was the MT4 indicator or something about forex. The method above could be useful for forex too, but if it's not you said, and if you remember a little more plz give me a tip to find.

I have never seen a good fractal indicator for the markets. My comment was asking if your indicator was based on fractal calculations.
  • #13
  • Jan 25, 2010 3:21pm Jan 25, 2010 3:21pm
Quoting CodeMeister
I have never seen a good fractal indicator for the markets. My comment was asking if your indicator was based on fractal calculations.
no it's not. but I'll try to make one with fractal calculation.
thank you for the tip.
  • #14
  • Jan 25, 2010 6:21pm Jan 25, 2010 6:21pm
Quoting hanover
Sorry to seem so negative, but I've yet to find any indicator that's capable of predicting the future.
I don't know how this indicator works but there definitely is something predictive in the past.

You should experiment with the concept of the magic_shift EA. It simply uses the AC Oscillator shifted by a fixed number of bars and basically trades *past* price movements. There are strong and relatively constant autocorrelations with constant lags in some pairs, especially EURUSD.

For example the magic shift EA shows interesting results when used on the eurusd H1 chart with a lag of -25 (its default parameters don't work). It doesn't predict every trade, only half of them are right but the winners are overall bigger than the losers, over hundreds of trades this should count as statistical evidence. The dayly profit curve looks nice and smooth.
  • #15
  • Feb 4, 2010 2:55pm Feb 4, 2010 2:55pm
I made another one with same logic (not fractal), this time it's MACD.
Plz play. "TargetShift" on parameter dialog means how many bars ahead to cross for alert and /or mail. "LocalTime" to false sets the server time for notification.
Limit to end of this month.
Enjoy!
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  • #16
  • Feb 5, 2010 9:46am Feb 5, 2010 9:46am
does this indi repaint?
Odysseus
forexfusiondotcom
  • #17
  • Feb 6, 2010 3:39pm Feb 6, 2010 3:39pm
Quoting odysseus11
does this indi repaint?
Odysseus
Yes it does, off course because she is always using the latest data past.
I'll put the deviation gauge for both.
  • #18
  • Feb 7, 2010 3:22am Feb 7, 2010 3:22am
Quoting a2chawaii
Yes it does, off course because she is always using the latest data past.
I'll put the deviation gauge for both.
Hi. Can u pls post a chart with ur indicator showing how to trade using this shifted macd.
  • #19
  • Feb 7, 2010 1:44pm Feb 7, 2010 1:44pm
Quoting reachjj
Hi. Can u pls post a chart with ur indicator showing how to trade using this shifted macd.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...2&postcount=15
  • #20
  • Feb 7, 2010 2:02pm Feb 7, 2010 2:02pm
any trading results lol?
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