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$5k to infinite

  • #161
  • Jan 10, 2010 2:43am Jan 10, 2010 2:43am
Quoting Razor_trader
BTW Xaron, download the above from RBS and it looks good to go. I will have a good play next week and see how my current FX mindset works with the bonds, indices and futures. Thanks again

Razor
I love that platform. It's simple and offers a lot of stuff. Even though the interest rollovers (swaps) are horrible if you're long Crude Oil for instance. All in all they are not that good like at Oanda but ok.

It's always nice to be able to diversify a bit.
  • #162
  • Jan 10, 2010 7:01am Jan 10, 2010 7:01am
Quoting Xaron
It's just the daily timeframe. So no stress. I don't care about +/- 100 pips/points.

Regarding the stock markets I think the Dow might even reach 11,000 first so I might drop my indices shorts on Monday with a loss. Same is true for Oil...


I guess you are right. I noticed too many stocks breaking out and trading up last week.
I am watching this site to pick stocks:

www.finviz.com
  • #163
  • Jan 10, 2010 3:18pm Jan 10, 2010 3:18pm
Quoting Xaron
It's tricky at the moment. The daily looks like it has found its bottom (higher lows already). Plus we have the fact that traders have build up a huge net long position in the Dollar already: [i]The latest CFTC figures on speculative FX futures showed net JPY shorts (vs. USD) rose to -14,903 contracts in Dec 29th from a net short position of -1,011 on Dec 22nd. Meanwhile, EUR net shorts (vs. USD) soared to -33,797 contracts from -14,327 contracts in Dec 22. Current EUR net short positioning is the largest since the record net shorts of -40,654 contracts...
check out the yeild curve for the US as well its the steepest it been ever.. for those who dont know about the Yeild Curve its basically long term tresury bond yeilds Vrs. Short term treasury bond yeilds in graphical form. generally when they swap and return to normal it calls business cycles.. it has done so near perfectly since the 30's ... of course this thing isnt air tight error proof but im expecting probably one of the largest growth cycles weve seen in a long time. which would be powering that long eur/usd position and some of my aud positions.

i think you right long term there xaron but the YCD is usually 4-6 months out. and before that we see limited growth or flat line..
  • #164
  • Jan 10, 2010 4:08pm Jan 10, 2010 4:08pm
heres what im looking at based on history Xaron maybe youll find this interesting we use this at the shop to prep for long term exposure

ok top graph is 3 month vrs 10 yr yeilds

you can see them swap and invert
bottom chart is probability of recession occuring based on TYC
and NBer _ REC is if it hits 1... we had a recession
so as the 3 month yeild converges with 10 year bond yeild probability of recession increases and around 25-35% 4-6 months later we recess
then 3 month yeild and 10 yr yeild diverge and we see growth
no recessions

EDIT: oh yeah and Nber_rec the wider that bar is the longer the recession
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TYC.PNG Size: 81 KB
  • #165
  • Edited 3:11pm Jan 13, 2010 12:25pm | Edited 3:11pm
hello Xaron.

i come with a question because you are the only one i know who uses marketindex.
i realy like it but have not decided yet if i want to open a live account and i hope you can help me.

ever since i opened my demo charts today i have doubt about their price-feed.
this spike does not show on oanda-charts... is this error, a dirty trick, or real PA, the doji makes it even weirder. do you have any idea what this could be.???

i have looked again and the doij makes me almost certain this is a glitch and no orders are taken out.... so disregard my question please.
another question that is on my mind for a long time and can be questioned when i open a live-account... is the reuters-newsfeed they offer the real deal????

good evening and tradee well, pax
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: RBSchart.JPG Size: 102 KB
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #166
  • Jan 14, 2010 2:26am Jan 14, 2010 2:26am
Recovery almost done. I'm now more and more confident that the Dollar will continue to weaken again.

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2010/aud/account_140110.png

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2010/aud/...ons_140110.png
  • #167
  • Jan 14, 2010 2:28am Jan 14, 2010 2:28am
Quoting j-pax
hello Xaron.

i come with a question because you are the only one i know who uses marketindex.
i realy like it but have not decided yet if i want to open a live account and i hope you can help me.

ever since i opened my demo charts today i have doubt about their price-feed.
this spike does not show on oanda-charts... is this error, a dirty trick, or real PA, the doji makes it even weirder. do you have any idea what this could be.???

i have looked again and the doij makes me almost certain this is a glitch and no orders are taken out.......
Hi pax,

I don't have such a spike in my live account. But yes, sometimes those spikes happen like at Oanda but you get always your money back.
  • #168
  • Jan 14, 2010 2:33am Jan 14, 2010 2:33am
Quoting Xaron
Hi pax,

I don't have such a spike in my live account. But yes, sometimes those spikes happen like at Oanda but you get always your money back.
ok thank you, that is good to hear. sounds like they are pretty honest like oanda.

kind greets, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #169
  • Jan 14, 2010 5:39am Jan 14, 2010 5:39am
Quoting j-pax
hello Xaron.

i come with a question because you are the only one i know who uses marketindex.
i realy like it but have not decided yet if i want to open a live account and i hope you can help me.

ever since i opened my demo charts today i have doubt about their price-feed.
this spike does not show on oanda-charts... is this error, a dirty trick, or real PA, the doji makes it even weirder. do you have any idea what this could be.???

i have looked again and the doij makes me almost certain this is a glitch and no orders are taken out.... so...
You also need to be aware that demo feeds and live feeds are different. Over the years with GFT I noticed very weird things on there demo accounts that I never saw on the live accounts. There was 1 bar in particular on the hourly feed about 6 months ago for GBP/USD that ran from like .9000 past 2.1000 (alot of pips for a 1 hour bar) but it didnt appear on other timeframes or on the live feed.

However if there is something out of the ordinary (which is why I runs GFT and Oanda side by side most times) where there is a huge spike I check it against the data on both platforms to see if there is any correlation, as yet in 5 years there hasnt been anything that was reportable on my live feeds.

Hope this helps

Razor
  • #170
  • Jan 14, 2010 7:10am Jan 14, 2010 7:10am
Quoting Razor_trader
You also need to be aware that demo feeds and live feeds are different. Over the years with GFT I noticed very weird things on there demo accounts that I never saw on the live accounts. There was 1 bar in particular on the hourly feed about 6 months ago for GBP/USD that ran from like .9000 past 2.1000 (alot of pips for a 1 hour bar) but it didnt appear on other timeframes or on the live feed.

However if there is something out of the ordinary (which is why I runs GFT and Oanda side by side most times) where there is a huge spike I check it against...
thank you Razor, i will do that. i have a alpari/uk demo account and will keep an eye on it.

good trading to you, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #171
  • Jan 14, 2010 5:06pm Jan 14, 2010 5:06pm
Hi, Xaron, i was following your forum from Oanda, now ill read this one. Im glad to see the recovery of your Account at MyFxBook, you have almost 20% for January, that is good!

Australia unemployment down to 5.5% and AUDUSD looks like its heading to 0.94 again, i even read that they might increase interest rates. What do you think?

Hope you dont mind this little chart:

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2764/...703b2314_o.jpg
  • #172
  • Jan 14, 2010 9:47pm Jan 14, 2010 9:47pm
I would like to thank Twee for leting me post here again. I have no idea why I was banned but anyways I'm not here to question moderators.

Second I would like to apologize to Xaron. As I explained at the oanda forum, I went tough on you because I saw a lot of mistakes that could ruin your carreer as a trader.

If you go back and look at my posts you will see that all I said indeed did happen.

But what do I know...right? I'm just a illiterate as somebody pointed out .

Anyways, if you really want to trade for a serious institution you have to focus on consistency rather than performance.

The volatility in your account will close doors for you.

Esoteric performances mean something in forums over the net, not on the real world of professional institutional traders.

Anyways something that I learned in one year or so among retail traders is that they do what they want to do, despite any logic or reason.

Anyways folks the platypus is going off line for good...trade safely...dont loose money
  • #173
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:23am Jan 15, 2010 1:23am
I agree platypus and welcome back!

I still use way too much leverage in that account, I know...
  • #174
  • Jan 15, 2010 1:52am Jan 15, 2010 1:52am
Euro Leads Most Currencies Lower Against US Dollar on Merkel Resignation Rumor

I can't believe that someone believes this BS! That would never ever happen, I know that girl.

Looks like there was some trader who had a big short in place and wanted to take a profit...
  • #175
  • Jan 15, 2010 11:04am Jan 15, 2010 11:04am
Yeah its about time to see retracements as we'll need a failed low and a break high to confirm the change in psychology in the market.. for most of these pairs except the a/j which for us confirms many aussie pairs.. the eur/usd for us seems to be painting a horrid future of what maybe to come with the EUR but we think its still fundamentally strong we are waiting till we get some confirmation so we can start to build a better position... I think your right tho Xaron these moves are not over its just a combination of people pissing into the wind and taking profits.. maybe some money transfers .
  • #176
  • Jan 19, 2010 4:31pm Jan 19, 2010 4:31pm
well xaron we knew this drop was comming hows the basket holding up ? we are still long into this mess doent much scare me ive seen this all before .. our Aussies are cruisin tho.
  • #177
  • Jan 19, 2010 5:10pm Jan 19, 2010 5:10pm
Interesting analysis by Ashraf Laidi (who seems to know a thing or 2 about the markets.) Thought you guys might be interested.
  • #178
  • Jan 19, 2010 5:19pm Jan 19, 2010 5:19pm
Quoting ByteJuggler
Interesting analysis by Ashraf Laidi (who seems to know a thing or 2 about the markets.) Thought you guys might be interested.
he assuming a drop into the 1.30 region im expecting a play long from the 1.35 average region... as eurozone does have some weakness and well need to lower its exchange to drive growth... but still im bullish into the euro... maybe not in the 3-4 month you can never pick a bottom .. but you can expect and catch... and ill be doing that into the 1.3 region. as ive already liquidated mid term holds
  • #179
  • Jan 20, 2010 6:07pm Jan 20, 2010 6:07pm
Quoting Xaron
Euro Leads Most Currencies Lower Against US Dollar on Merkel Resignation Rumor

I can't believe that someone believes this BS! That would never ever happen, I know that girl.

Looks like there was some trader who had a big short in place and wanted to take a profit...
Whether the rumor is going to happen or would never happen, we should rather be focusing on how we position ourselves and how price is behaving at the moment. Euro already broke its previous daily swing low at 1.4250 so we should see how this plays out at the next critical level at 1.40 and 1.38 if continues then at 1.30, and if a retrace is to happen, it is likely going back to re-test 1.45 level.

Similarly, the AUD is forming a tripple top pattern on a daily chart, so I would expect this will re-test .8950 and .8750 level.

I know that you are Bearish on most of, if not, all of USD pairs, but the way I see how price behaves on recent time frame, the bear is going to fade its momentum. So, just be careful Xaron. Just my two cents.
  • #180
  • Jan 20, 2010 9:01pm Jan 20, 2010 9:01pm
Quoting Prodigy
Whether the rumor is going to happen or would never happen, we should rather be focusing on how we position ourselves and how price is behaving at the moment. Euro already broke its previous daily swing low at 1.4250 so we should see how this plays out at the next critical level at 1.40 and 1.38 if continues then at 1.30, and if a retrace is to happen, it is likely going back to re-test 1.45 level.

Similarly, the AUD is forming a tripple top pattern on a daily chart, so I would expect this will re-test .8950 and .8750 level.

I know that you...
dont get caught up with that triple top if they raise interest rates dont think that triple top is gonna stop price.. Euro is acting as it should.. this is a cap w/inner acc wave which means euro should pull between now and 1.32 I dont think itll even get close to 1.3 tho I am hoping we see 1.36 before the comming rally so I can get a better buy point. Good calm non reactive trading will work wonders here

Quoting domino
aussie pairs.. the eur/usd for us seems to be painting a horrid future of what maybe to come with the EUR but we think its still fundamentally strong we are waiting till we get some confirmation so we can start to build a better position...
so if we new it was comming and knew it would be good to build a better dollar costed position .. not much has changed to the moon
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