TSF Mavin completed a fully qualified bar at the close of the 2am GMT bar, allowing us to place a buy stop order at one pip above the close. However the bar closed at the high so we look to get in where we can if the bar moves up at least one pip (most brokers won't allow stop orders that are too close to the current price). That puts me in at 147.16 (appx). The price has proceeded to retrace as it could not immediately cross the near resistance. Sometimes when I'm away from my screen and don't get a trade on when I wanted, and the price retraces, I see that as a great opportunity to put on the stop order at the original level if price backs off enough to allow it. Other times I have just taken a market order at a lower price to try to get my 20 pips earlier.
Regardless, the trade is on. The fully qualifying bar was a strong price action indication of the market's intent to advance, but the failure to surpass the near resistance (I'm away from the screen and can't post the near resistance price, but it is right at the high of the current bar last I looked -- 5 minutes ago) makes me a little nervous. We'll see though.
13 January 2010 -- The chart for today's action. A pretty straight forward trade that didn't linger too long. We almost got a signal right out of the starting blocks, but the 12:30 am bar faded half way through its period and took a dive. Followed by another bearish bar. Then we got a great bullish pin bar that agreed with the TSF Mavin. As explained above, when a qualified bar closes right at the signal extreme (at the high if bullish, or at the low if bearish) then it often isn't possible to place a stop order. In such cases it is best to confirm that price makes it to the tick above the qualifying bar's extreme and place a market order. You might well lose two or three pips, sometimes as much as 5 doing it this way, but at least you get in. You can then either reduce your take profit amount to what it would have been if you were able to put on the normal stop order, or take a risk that price will continue on to the full profit objective (20 pips).
After entering price made an initial push, then pulled back, and might have given reason to worry, before powering on through to take profit. All in all a fairly easy win for the day. Done early too! I really like that.
Could be a slow start today. TSF Ribbon is oriented to indicate a bias to a bearis move. But it is positioned fully above the 20EMA, which indicates a bullish bias. Lack of agreement causes the biases to cancel each other. It will take a very strong bar by itself to get the TFS Mavin setup. I don't see anything on the horizon that makes me think that is going to happen. That is why I expect we will drift uncommitted for awhile, or slowly start to trend, but not enough to get the setup for a few bars.
But that's just me thinking out loud. The market likes to surprise and disappoint. So it is always best to just wait and watch.
Still waiting and watching. Notice though that we have obvious higher lows and a few higher highs (30 min chart). Also note the slight upward tilt in the 20 EMA. Put those with the TSF Ribbon being above the 20 EMA and I'd say things are trying to line up for a bullish move.
Beware though of the European open an hour befor the London open. Sometimes there is trickery there. Market movers sometimes drive price Dow for a couple of bars to convince folks like us to jump for a fake bear trend. If we get far enough away with our setup we may have enough cushion to survive that. But sometimes not. This could be a tricky day indeed. … or not. Who knows, right? Sit and wait. Some days you win some you lose. TSF Mavin gives an advantage but it is not the Grail. So let things develop and make the move when it is indicated, no matter it agrees with your expectations or not. Sit and wait.
The order filled not long after it was placed. However price had a difficult time surmounting the near resistance in the 149.45 area. It has now retraced but I'm still in. Sometimes these pull backs after price stalls can be a good thing, and I hope so, of course. But if it gets up there and fails again that won't be a good sign. We'll just have to wait and watch some more. The die is cast. So we'll see eventually.
As I anticipated a long meandering path to profit today. The setup came on a breakout bar (2:30 am), which is usually either a blessing because the trend continues quickly, or keeps you on the edge of your seat as the market got ahead of itself and wants to consolidate a bit (during which it will frustrate while probing resistance, and sometimes infuriate when it probes support - occasionally hitting our stop loss). Price consolidated after that, then peeked up just enough to get our order filled (3:30 am bar). But without much momentum at that point, it proceded to test the resolve of the move up by swinging low, but not enough to hit our stop loss. Then a really ugly looking rally bar that ran all the way back up to resistance only to fall most of the way back down. The next bar was critical. Would it hold above the nearby lows? Answer - Just at the low, and then BOOM, off it ran to bullishly engulf the entire previous bar and run all the way to a new high, before backing off a bit to catch its breath. The very next bar (7:30 am) hits our take profit.
So you read all of that and you live the drama. Some people are addicted to drama. Some even to chaos. I admit, sometimes I get wrapped up in it too. But the truth is, once the position is in place it is going to fill or it won't. If it doesn't you are looking to improve the entry, or take a new setup if the market reverses. Eventually (one or two exceptions during the year), price will move in a way that fills an order. From that point on, you either win or you lose. Watch the progress at your own risk to your health and psyche. If you do, you'll be tempted to add to your position, or move the stop loss, or move the take profit. All of which will work sometimes, and frustrate you other times. The method is the method. Use any part you wish. Fail to use all of it as I stated and you're accepting responsibility for what happens. Pips to you though! Hope you win and wish you the best. Honestly. And if you find a better way, I whole heartedly hope you will share it here.
TFS Mavin is now at 20 wins and 2 losses since 1 December, not trading Christmas or New Years weeks. Even with the risk reward of 51 pips to get 20 pips, or about 2.55 to 1, you end up with 400 pips won, 102 pips lost, 298 positive pips net. One of those losses and one of the wins were on an announcement days that the original method rules suggest you avoid trading. Follow that rule and standing by, and you are 19 and 1, or a 95% winning system for that time span. I don't claim it always wins that much, but it is pretty consistent.
I'll continue to post blast from the past charts as I can so that I have a documented history of how this performed historically. After I've completed December 2009 I'll continue working back and will adjust the win/lose history as I add days on the back end and as we forward test. Thus I will compile the most accurate track record possible.
There may be days that I can't post. I'll catch up when I can. Please understand. If you have questions please ask. If you have suggestions, you are welcome to discuss them.
Do I trade this? Only on demo so far. And even then I don't always get it exactly right. Yesterday was a perfect example. The signal bar formed just as I began driving home from work. So I'm in my car. I happen to be watching what was going on, which isn't always the case. I see the bar shooting up and I realize I need to get ready to pull the trigger. Fortunately I was at a stop light. I built a little script to help me place the orders faster, but if price closes on the qualifying bar within 3 pips of the high (or low for sell orders) my script doesn't work the way I want (yet). So I fire off the script and it puts my order up and it gets instantly filled 2 pips below the proper target price (with the stop loss and take profit 2 pips lower as well). So I've got an open position when I should just have pending orders up. For forty minutes I'm in the trade and I'm concerned that there is going to be a price improvement opportunity that I won't be able to take advantage of, or price will tank and I'll be on the wrong side of the rules.
Fortunately, everything worked out okay. This time. Including not having an accident on the road. That is why I hope I can get some help automating, at least part of the entry rules. I hate missing opportunities because of my work schedule or some other distraction or obligation.
It isn't always so smooth for me as you can see. So if you'd like to help me out, or know someone who could, I'd appreciate it. Pips to all of you!
TSF ribbon is not yet sold on the dive in price that we are currently seeing. Like most indicators it lags. If you are trying to be fist out the gate it usually isn't the greatest tool. It is looking for safer bets. It remains poised to signal a buy stop order if the next bar goes even a little bullish. It could be right or wrong. If wrong I would the expect price to continue running away from the order and it will hopefully not fill. If it is right then price could bounce up in a test and give us enough for a winning trade. So stay ready. Wait and watch.
TSF ribbon is almost convinced the market is really going down. To some of you that will seem pretty funny as the market has been streaking down for at least a couple of hours now. I say, so what. My method isn't designed to be the first to win. Just to win. It does that pretty often. That's good enough for me.
What often happens is the ribbon will finally get it, and then the price will end up taking a rest and even retracing some. All the while we wait because the ribbon and the EMA and the bar direction must all vote the same. Could happen soon. Could happen later. Everything may reverse again before everything is just right. Rarely, it just doesn't come together. And after all of that, every once ia awhile you will lose anyway. It's all okay. For now… you know it… sit and wait.
Really amazing sometimes. Even after all of these bullish bars, if we just get this bar to close as a bear, we will have a confirmed setup and place sell stop orders. But we're still waiting. If it doesn't come now, I think we'll be waiting for the market's next move.
Sorry about the lag. I got busy with some other things... But the trade is on. Sell Stop orders were placed at the close of the 4:30 am GMT bar, at 148.73. Take profit is therefore 148.53, Stoploss is 149.25. Price is currently hovering around breakeven as I type, but seems like it could race to Take Profit at the any moment. ... ... Or not, of course.
Take Profit Achieved! -- Officially 20 wins and 1 loss, with previous caveats for xmas and new years and anouncement days. Oh and net pips for that are now 349. I'll post the chart in my morning. Cheers everybody, and pips for all!
