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Stay a broke loser or be a professional trader (Journal to a dream)

  • #41
  • Jan 4, 2010 7:09am Jan 4, 2010 7:09am
Quoting marcelnyo
Quoting myself.

I thanked a few people to remind me to further research the discussed methods namely DIBS and FS-ONS from TRT's blog.

from my researches, I conclude now that I believe if a trading method doesn't have an edge on the market, then any form of MM won't be of any help, the method would still lose big time in the long run.

Furthermore, some people here has stated the fact that decades of backtesting provided with TRT's system is inaccurate at best, and the martingale weighting money management algorithm that he applies to his...
Hi Marcel,

Could you elaborate slightly on martingale weighting money management algorithm please?
  • #42
  • Jan 4, 2010 11:27am Jan 4, 2010 11:27am
Quoting Eklavya
Hi Marcel,

Could you elaborate slightly on martingale weighting money management algorithm please?
Truthfully, I didn't remember, it was a deduction that I've came up with while browsing and reading TRT's whole blog, twice, and then researching about the system on FF, I wrote that to justify my reasons not to trade those systems.

What I remembered was this : according to TRT, while he was using his system, he also applied a complicated MM algorithm, where I got the martingale word was beyond my memory, this same MM was sold by TRT to some company for $12K!

Now I had a thought back then if his fenomenal gains were a product of that algorithm as a crucial factor, then there is no way that I could copy what he is doing(trading wise) nor will I be able to understand the way he thinks about Money Management.

I was in system jumping mode, I was so pressed financially back then that I had to make a sure enough trade just to keep the kitchen boiling, then someone from the J16 Group smacked me in the face with Fijitrader's section and made me realize that the prespective because of desperation was a mistake, I've finally managed a way to borrow some money, got kicked between jobs, and then when I was halfway back on my feet, my trading beliefs stays with J16 and it's derivatives.

I'm sorry if I couldn't say anything useful for you, but those are the facts, saying otherwise would be lying.
  • #43
  • Jan 4, 2010 9:31pm Jan 4, 2010 9:31pm
First Trades of 2010.

Trade 1.

USDCAD Long from 4H Pinbar.

Reasons : Weekly PPZ 1.03 area, Pinbar, Divergence.
Cons : Counter Trend IMO, lots of previous bar lows at the left, Pin low didn't reach 1.0300 BRN

Plan : Quick Counter Trend Trade to TP at 1.0475 or 61.8 Fib and TL Ret, Stop Stays at place below 4H PB.

Risk : 0.2%
Comfortable with this risk ? Absolutely.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...H%205-1-10.png

Trade 2.

CADJPY Short

Reasons : 4H PB, Weekly PPZ, Divergence, Pair has been consolidating since May 09, Space to the left.
Cons : PB is small / insignificant, Counter Trend, also in USDCAD Long so might be correlated(??)

Plan : Enter Trade when prize breaks minor PPZ at 88.80, Counter Trend Trade to 86.20 area, stops will be move according to available PPZs.

Risk : 0.2%
Comfortable with risk ? Absolutely.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...%2005-1-10.png



Will be looking at trades every 3 to 4 hours, meanwhile I'm re-reading some old threads, this move in the new town has given me some advantages time-wise.

I've managed to get some loan again to continue living while I believe this town will be my permanent home for at least 5 more years, so I might be able to open a futures or stock account at Interactive Brokers, my legal matters finally running again after the holidays, I have big hopes for these matters.

I saw my colleagues accelerating at the speed of light, I envy them, and I know my problems had kept me at bay in the past, but this year everything will be different, especially after the case is over, I will be fully capable to decide and create my own future.
  • #44
  • Edited 2:37am Jan 5, 2010 2:07am | Edited 2:37am
As I finally got time in my hands, I'm looking to utilize them properly, most of the time I will use my time to :

1. Read FF/J16 Threads
2. Practice drawing PPZ
3. Watch/Re-watch Videos
4. Backtesting

The least of my time are spent planning and worrying about a trade in progress, the better, I've accepted the fact that once a trade is on the way, it's all up to the market, I've accepted the risks involved and going to find a better way to put my time to.

Why did Backtesting got 4th priority? because for me it takes too much time and will need a great amount of focus on my part, not something I'd do on a working day, I normally do it on weekends where all the markets are closed.

I've found out something else to do, I've been wanting to view and trade other markets for a long time now, I've got futures charts and can demo them from Henyep Investments Inc, or FXPro charts, but won't use both brokers to trade them, I have a plan to use Interactive Brokers instead for the futures trades, and I knew that they provide stocks too, but there are literally thousands of stocks, aren't they? Yes, indeed, so I've found a neat little tool from http://stockcharts.com/charts
I will go to free charts, stock scans to view the candle patterns I like, being a bar chart trader there are little I know regarding candle patterns, so I'll utilize their dictionary (stockcharts.com has one too!!) as to what patterns to look for, I've found that candlestick charts take the open and close of a bar very seriously, I think I should do that in a bar chart too, more people seeing the same thing = more confluence = better chance.

Here are they in random order :

 

  1. Doji : This is a Pinbar like pattern where the open and close are at the same level, although it might translate to a neutral bar, or a cross like bar, but sometimes it will take this kind of form, worth watching.
  2. Dragonfly Doji : A Doji where the open and close price are at the high of the day, rare occasion pins on forex, but I think this will do as one of the patterns I look for.
  3. Engulfing Pattern : Also translate as a BUOB/BEOB on J16 language, this will work.
  4. Gravestone Doji : A Doji where the open and close price are at the low of the day, opposite to the dragonfly doji
  5. Hammer / Hanging Man : A Pinbar that closes above the open, when in a decline, it's Hammer, when formed after an advance move, it's a Hanging Man.
  6. Harami : Inside bar, I'm not going to trade these if I do trade in stocks, maybe in higher TFs such as weeklies though.
  7. Harami Cross : Inside bar, same as the harami, but more doji like shape.
  8. Inverted Hammer / Shooting Star: Not an Ideal Pin Bar, it's a bearish pin bar with the open lower/higher than the close, when in a downtrend, it's an inverted hammer, in an uptrend, it's a shooting star.
  9. Long Shadows : Supposedly one wicks are short, and the other is very long, I don't really know, but it looks like a pinbar, so I'll give it a shot later.

That's about all of the patterns that I will scan of at stockcharts.com

I wanted to post images but were limited to only 5 images per post, so you can check them out here

  • #45
  • Jan 5, 2010 7:42am Jan 5, 2010 7:42am
USDCAD long PB 4H broken down, SL hit for -0.2%
CADJPY Short 4H PB Stopped at BE after movement to 61.8 Fib ret of last swing low-swing high.

Evaluation charts will be posted later.
  • #46
  • Jan 5, 2010 7:53am Jan 5, 2010 7:53am
Best of luck this year man. The one thing every great success story has in common is perseverance.



Jason
May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
  • #47
  • Jan 6, 2010 1:10am Jan 6, 2010 1:10am
Quoting marcelnyo
USDCAD long PB 4H broken down, SL hit for -0.2%
CADJPY Short 4H PB Stopped at BE after movement to 61.8 Fib ret of last swing low-swing high.

Evaluation charts will be posted later.
Hi, like I said, I'll post evaluation charts.

Reasons for the USDCAD loss yesterday solely because I'm hitting a minor S/R area, which now appears to be pretty thick, and because the main trend is DOWN, which makes this trade a counter trend, nevertheless, it's a 0.2% loss, and time to move on.

Picture:
http://content.screencast.com/users/...01-06_1401.png

The Next was CADJPY Trade.
LOoking at the chart now in hindsight, the trade would still be alive if I moved my stop just above 89, but I moved it to BE at 88.80 and that bearish pinbar struck the highs and killed it.

The pair was actually in consolidation from the weeklies and I still believe that the trade would reach 86.xx area, or the midline, but it's just another trade and a BE is better than a loss IMO.

Picture :
http://content.screencast.com/users/...01-06_1405.png
Lesson learned ?

Why did I move to BE that soon? I was okay if it went for a loss too, which it didn't right now.

Take the BEST trades with the trend, On Counter trends beware of parabolic move or post breakout reversal pins and direct PPZ beyond my PA setup.
  • #48
  • Jan 6, 2010 1:11am Jan 6, 2010 1:11am
Quoting aSandman
Best of luck this year man. The one thing every great success story has in common is perseverance.



Jason
Thanks J.
  • #49
  • Edited 12:46pm Jan 6, 2010 11:42am | Edited 12:46pm
Pairs Watched : USDCAD at 1.03, AUDCHF Triple Top, Silver Midline, AUDJPY Double Top, GBPAUD All Time Low, CADJPY Double Top

USDCAD 1.03, Probably bounce, But due to the USD bullish flag, I'm going to say that it will break and retrace

http://content.screencast.com/users/...01.03%20W1.png

and here's a zoom in

http://content.screencast.com/users/...01-07_0057.png

Another one for AUDCHF Triple Top now Giving us a somewhat PB/Neutral Bar Setup.
http://content.screencast.com/users/...iple%20Top.png

Silver D1 Nothing Special here, just a hobby.
http://content.screencast.com/users/...ilver%20D1.png

Here's something to watch, AUDJPY at a crucial point.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...UDJPY%20d1.png

That's 5 Images people, next post please!
  • #50
  • Jan 6, 2010 1:09pm Jan 6, 2010 1:09pm
GBPAUD All Time Low? Guess again... it's been 25 Years! I bet James16 is nostalgic about this!

http://content.screencast.com/users/...%20Monthly.png

Here's the CADJPY Monthly Chart, I'm looking for a breakout+pullback+PA on H4, hopefully rejected from a BRN like 90... cool

http://content.screencast.com/users/...%20Monthly.png

Here's an EURJPY Trade on a very small account, I forgot to post it but it was arbitrary and just a test trade, becoz I'm not quite sure about the PPZ there.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...01-07_0200.png

And This NZDUSD Trade from last year is just getting better and better, just thought I'd post this one to remind me to always trade with the trend... age old idiom...
http://content.screencast.com/users/...01-07_0205.png
  • #51
  • Jan 7, 2010 1:51am Jan 7, 2010 1:51am
I've just read this article by Joe Ross and have found out how it has affected my trading greatly... everyone around me sees me as someone that's always between jobs, and in the past, I've always told them that I was a full-time trader, so I got my money that way... by trading this instrument, and that instrument, merely for an ego boost... this article was a smack-dab in the face.

Recently when I found anyone, I always try to keep it low-key, and then decided not to talk about trading so much, it's merely a business, and when business is bad, you don't wanna spent that much time explaining it to other people... even the closest friends for that matter.

Quoting Article by Joe Ross
Some time ago I spent 4 days in a Forex trading office, teaching and working with the traders there. It was interesting to see how these traders speak with one another, and to listen to what they say. I couldn’t help making some observations which I will now share with you.

If you are a part- or full-time trader, you may have enjoyed the attention this wild and wooly occupation brings at social gatherings and events. Many are interested in trading, and find you interesting as a successful trader. At first, the attention may be enjoyable; but a need to maintain this reputation may impact your trading attitude and mindset, and therefore, your bottom line.

The best strategy you can use to avoid letting your reputation influence your performance—especially when enduring a drawdown period—is to keep your conversation low-key about your trading career. Why? The more you present yourself socially as a "successful trader," the more psychological effort you will spend defending this reputation. Several research studies have documented that one of the biggest obstacles to sound decision-making is the need to save face in social situations. People are so reluctant to face the adverse social consequences of having made a poor decision that they stay on a losing course of action, rather than admit they were wrong. For example, some traders are reluctant to sell off losers in order to avoid the possible social criticism that acknowledging a failure may bring.

Suppose you have told your friends about a large position, and within minutes, hours, or days, it tanked, hard and fast. Most folks can’t wait for the next opportunity to ask you (even though they probably know the answer) how your “hot trade” is doing. If you got rid of it, at least you have the solace of managing the trade properly—even though you must tolerate a volley of smug “you-thought-it-would-go up and such, but-it crashed-instead” comments. On the occasions when you ignored your protective stop, however, and held onto the bad trade, the “Boy, you-really-ARE-dumb” looks (and perhaps comments) can exacerbate the psychological devastation you've by now, surely, inflicted on yourself. And we all know the negative impact a negative attitude can have on our trading.

As another example, how many times has the market gapped up, then chopped through the rest of the day, handing you more losses than wins? Inevitably, those are the days when well-meaning friends call on the phone. “You must have made a fortune today!” they gush. “Not really,” you mumble with a sinking heart, remembering the frustrating trading environment. After you hang up the phone, the subsequent feelings can lead you to believe you must have been a dope that day; surely every trader in the world except you grabbed huge gains. In social environments, once you announce and identify yourself as a trader, you will feel a need to defend your reputation. Trading is hard enough, why introduce additional social and psychological pressures that will adversely influence your trading results? Keep the specifics of your trading career to yourself. There is no sound reason to discuss the specifics of your career socially. It’s often done just to build up your ego, and enjoy the attention of others. You'll pay a price for this short-term gratification in the long run. Avoid specific observations or trading choices. That way, you'll avoid embarrassing questions and comments that will interfere with your trading.
  • #52
  • Edited 8:32pm Jan 7, 2010 8:03pm | Edited 8:32pm
Tonight's NFP...

And I've found homework for today.

Other than S/R practices, I've found myself some things to read about the market's order flow... from Cosler, and Seiden, while seiden's stuff still need to be downloaded, I'll look for them and download them today since at NFP friday I don't wanna take reckless positions, I'll just tighten the stops for my trades and move on.

We will never stop learning and growing as a trader, there is continuous learning in the markets, the charts, and reading good books, the ultimate creativity is born from prolonged igorous observation only, you train your own eyes to see what isn't there in the first place, and the second, or maybe the 120th time you look at it, it's there, ripe for the picking.

Psychological aspects of trading ? for me right now it is the part where I let go the trades which risk I have accepted, there are 2 things that came to mind about this.
1. The risks are still too big
2. I'm playin with scared money
3. I'm still not confident enough with my current methods of trading

solution for them :
1. Lower the risk
2. Get another Job to support your life while you're trading
3. Backtest and Trade the setups you like with your very small account

I've also read Mike's post about being patient here, I'm going to return to Fiji's section for another deep read, wow, this is going to be a loong weekend.
  • #53
  • Jan 8, 2010 2:48am Jan 8, 2010 2:48am
Thanks for showing Mikes post, I love reading him. Your right on track with getting your mind right to trade right. Commit to the process and let it flow.
May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
  • #54
  • Jan 8, 2010 12:37pm Jan 8, 2010 12:37pm
Talk about eating my own words... I was rushed into taking positions because some chores I had to do... and made me regret them, too.

Here's the worst trade of 2010... nominated...
http://content.screencast.com/users/...01-09_0126.png

One of the better one, but still, because taken on NFP day, this one should be a lesson, not a euphoria material

http://content.screencast.com/users/...01-09_0130.png

Happy Weekend
  • #55
  • Jan 14, 2010 10:39pm Jan 14, 2010 10:39pm
Took a Long on EURAUD when the bid price hit 1.5550 today, because frankly it's a triple (or quartet?) low on the Monthly TF even.

Risk is 0.5%, will be moving to BE when market dictates possible, might be a start of a long run, might be not, we will see.

Meanwhile, active trades are as follows :
NZDUSD Long Trade since 09, still alive, stop at 340 pips profit or about 7% locked.
USDJPY Short from the last NFP, still going on great.
EURGBP Short from a 4H BEOB on 0.9 and from trendline. With The Trend
http://content.screencast.com/users/...01-15_1135.png

AUDUSD Short from 0.93 PPZ below a 4H mini pin... Counter Trend
http://content.screencast.com/users/...01-15_1136.png

From december, my counter trend trades has if not stopped out for a full loss, was stopped out at BE.

I will look for with the majority of trend trades only with my main account, meanwhile CT trades will still be taken with my small account.

Putting up a trading plan, will be posting it later on the first post.
  • #56
  • Jan 15, 2010 2:18am Jan 15, 2010 2:18am
hi bro,
glad to hear from you!!

you are looknig and doing great!!!
  • #57
  • Jan 16, 2010 11:06am Jan 16, 2010 11:06am
Hi man,

I was following your journal immediately after you started it and I am pretty happy I did it.

The graphs you post are good and educational + posting the bad trades was also a good idea because being ashamed in public makes you more picky for the next trades.

About AUD/USD next week will be very interesting. I am saying this because, I heard from another trader who is interested in fundamental trading that the Aussie will do great because the Australian governement announces awesone news about their economy. Very low unemployment rate, still a lot of jobs available and big trading discussion with Japan and China. Good news from Australia means a more powerful Aussie.

Let's hope for the best.

Happy trading and keep the good work you started.

Vlad



Quoting marcelnyo
Took a Long on EURAUD when the bid price hit 1.5550 today, because frankly it's a triple (or quartet?) low on the Monthly TF even.

Risk is 0.5%, will be moving to BE when market dictates possible, might be a start of a long run, might be not, we will see.

Meanwhile, active trades are as follows :
NZDUSD Long Trade since 09, still alive, stop at 340 pips profit or about 7% locked.
USDJPY Short from the last NFP, still going on great.
EURGBP Short from a 4H BEOB on 0.9 and from trendline. With The Trend
http://content.screencast.com/users/...01-15_1135.png...
  • #58
  • Jan 19, 2010 5:33am Jan 19, 2010 5:33am
Quoting siobi
hi bro,
glad to hear from you!!

you are looknig and doing great!!!
Yo siobi, glad to have to back here, as you can see, I've went a long way since our FXPrime days... timeframe wise... hehehe... M1 back then, H4 today

I see that you've taken the automated approach
I'll always wish for your success man.

Quoting FXMaecenas
Hi man,

I was following your journal immediately after you started it and I am pretty happy I did it.

The graphs you post are good and educational + posting the bad trades was also a good idea because being ashamed in public makes you more picky for the next trades.

About AUD/USD next week will be very interesting. I am saying this because, I heard from another trader who is interested in fundamental trading that the Aussie will do great because the Australian governement announces awesone news about their economy. Very low unemployment rate,...
Thanks for replying, and more thanks for following this journal since day one, wow, I'm impressed, it wasn't at all that impressive when I first opened it, I'm real glad that it was useful to you, and yes, posting bad trades on a journal teaches me about credibility.... thus picking better trades, on my main account at least
  • #59
  • Edited 5:57am Jan 19, 2010 5:43am | Edited 5:57am
Trades today.

Only Fun, Counter Trend Trades, was USDCHF, and Silver.

I've been out of town for the weekend an just got home this morning, I'm still struggling through my debts and more bad news arrived, someone is asking for their money back at 25th this month... I've managed to sell something today with an offer worth 70% of what the creditor is asking, I hope that would be enough and I hope the deal will go through smoothly.

Charts with explanation below.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...01-19_1826.png

Silver
http://content.screencast.com/users/...01-19_1837.png

I'm still yet to finish my plan of a trading plan... geez, I didn't know it would take that long.

and silver has hit TP, that was fast...
  • #60
  • Jan 20, 2010 2:35am Jan 20, 2010 2:35am
I'm currently Stopped out for a loss on my EURAUD Trade... that's it, no more CT trades on the main account...

I have 2 new positions today, both on the NZDCHF and GBPUSD, it's from the daily pinbars, I have neglected them lately because the whole sleep thing, this town moving thing has made me sacrifice my sleep and resting, not to mention the stress level of my fiancee's mother is affecting her greatly... and as a result, she harass me everytime she can.

I'm currently reading Soultrader's Clinic, and Some of the threads he created, they're pure gold IMO and I've found so many valuable things trading wise, to say the least, I can tell you now that I have been searching for a profitable way to trade since 2006, and have only been breaking even since early 2009, or the day I found James16, I don't have the amount to trade for a living yet, so I must state once more that I have a Job waiting in my old town, after this case settled, I'll move there ASAP.

Just want to tell you that reading soultrader's posts are very worthwhile, he also points to some of the members here, daytrading is one of them.

I'll continue to read, but I'm forgetting to plan my trading plan... yikes...
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