USDCAD trend reversal?

BTW, I asked this before, but how can Scotia Bank be ranked #6 out of 5? Do you mean out of top 6 banks? RBC, TD, Scotia, BMO, CIBC, National? And what were they ranked on? Being ranked 5 out of 6 isn't something I would brag about......

VENGE: Just a little sarcasm from post # 2740 ( a Brethren or Cistern "bablo") posted it .
I had suggested "thonging" the U/Cad due to scotia news ( as well as my TA). I do believe, bablo was long.

You might wish to ask bablo those ???????.

Daily fibs: 12/17(hi)-01/11(lo)

STO is up.

38% retrace 1.4460
50% retrace 1.0502 {also, 50 ema}

Just some levels that I am watching.

Why did the Canadian Dollar suddenly raise and other pairs fell drastically?
There were no news or anything.
Any ideas?

Likely the fact commodities rebounded off their initial sell-off. CRB closed 285 from low of 281. Also, S&P downgraded California debt to A-, and nothing bad came out from Capitol Hill.

Great question! D techs still showed US/Cad weakness.
The info sites checked tonight, imho, showed no reason for Cad strength(that I could discern).

Last fundie site I perused, offered ( & I apologize for inaccurate quoting)
"loonie got support when US equities mkts bounced back from profit-taking held during past couple of days. Selling of US treasuries & USD, benefitting "anti-dollars" like the loonie..............if buying interests remain in US equities mkts.... Cad could strengthen"

I have little fundamental knowledge ( am a tekkie).Mayhaps one of you fundamental traders can explain this to me? (the aforementioned quote -not that I am a tekkie- I mean).

Personally, I feel it is because Harper "pirogued" parliament & the politicos are not "running the asylum" temporarily.
{Iggy should use this time to date B Streisand or M Kidder (it worked before)} Maybe, a clever catchphrase like " fuddle duddle" could turn the tide for you?

Should have proofed before sending: 38% 1.0460.

egads; I am spewing figures like an NDPer.

There is a growing perception that the US is entering a period where wealth preservation is more important then taking on risk for gain.
The commodity currencies are seen as bastions of strength due to the wealth in the ground and the level headed economic policies of their governments.

The Fed and the current administration will sacrifise the USD believing that they can inflate away America's problems.

History has shown that wealth is not created by inflation, but we are in a political landscape that can only be changed by a taxpayer revolt in the 2010 election.

If that where to occur then the USD may stabilise.

[quote=foto;3367630]There is a growing perception that the US is entering a period where wealth preservation is more important then taking on risk for gain.
The commodity currencies are seen as bastions of strength due to the wealth in the ground and the level headed economic policies of their governments.

The Fed and the current administration will sacrifise the USD believing that they can inflate away America's problems.

History has shown that wealth is not created by inflation, but we are in a political landscape that can only be changed by a taxpayer revolt in the 2010 election.

If that where to occur then the USD may stabilise.[/quote

Thanks for your input, it helped me. The "wealth preservation" assisted ( since, I don't cogitate concepts-just look at lines & indicators) & I shall now add this in another way of viewing the technicals.
Issue with "..level-headed economic policies of their governments" this an oxymoron
Question: doesn't inflation help the US debt? As in improving the debt/GDP ratio?

I believe China news comes out on Thurs.

Anyone have knowledge as to how it could influence loonie?
I thought that I read that weak data would cause the Aud to increase but I am not certain & would appreciate any input.

COT data tonight showed increased net long positions. I'm thinking US/Cad down.

May be sexist;but, still prefer "thongs" over "long johns"!

Hello Scarecru. In response to your question about inflation or (soft money) helping debt by improving debt/gdp ratio.
This is an interesting concept and truly is a core policy followed by the Fed. Bernanke and company believe they are the sole determiners of the value of the currency.
In market capitalism the market, that's you, me and everyone else makes a collective decision about what to do with the wealth that is created by working. The collective decision determines the current market price of the basket of goods and services known as GDP. The standard of value to assess price is the money.
If you go to the store and buy a quart of milk, you expect to get a quart of milk for the money you plunk down on the counter. What do you say to someone who sells a wax container with one quart printed upon it but when you get home and pour out the contents you find 3 1/2 cups?
You and everyone else would say you were cheated.
To eliminate swindlers we have a bureau of standards that establishes the measure of a thing. Thus the market believes a quart is a quart and pays a set price for an item of measurable value.

When we were children there was a fable about the grasshopper and the ant. The ant did due diligence, worked hard, saved and when winter came was able to live through the hard times because of the work they were willing to do.
The party animal, the grasshopper died of starvation.

The Fed wants the savers, the ants of this country to pay for the party animals because the grasshoppers cannot discipline themselves to actually put in a day of hard work.

Thus the Fed inflates and robs those who actually live by the motto that no one owes them a living.

People who actually work are realizing that the Fed is a group of swindlers that exist to help finance a debtor Nation's conspicous consumption. The original stated reason for being was as a lender of last resort to alleviate economic catastrophes resulting from financial panics. To effectively give the economy some breathing room to sort things out and come back to a market driven status.
The Fed as it now exists is currently no different from a drug dealer, by passing out toxic assets to keep the bad ideas afloat rather then letting market forces (the conscious citizen) determine the value of goods and services.

There is no substitute for children becoming adults when it comes to a functioning Country. A Nation will fail if the leadership creates a Nation of children dependent upon the Great Father in Washington for its bread.
America has come a long way from its founders who said things such as, I know not what course others may take, but as for me, give me Liberty or give me death.

One can choose between a life of a dependent child or one of self sufficent adulthood.

So the original question becomes a philoshical question. Its' answer might be found in answering another question. Is life meant to be a free ride?
History shows that those who believe life is a free ride often find themselves destitute. America is no different.

Will the Fed action help or hurt Gdp? Since there really are no free rides
somehow or other the Fed action by taking the stance that free rides exist without repercussions will only cause economic pain for America in the end game.

Just as a followup to the oxymoron about level headed government. In one respect it is a laughable statement but there also is an element of truth as a trader, since we need to pick what we think is the least bad currency to be long out of the bunch of alternatives.
For instance, I do kinda like the Aud at this time, but remain wary about the true strength of the Chinese economy as officialy reported. This, since the Aud is a play on Asia economic growth.

Truly appreciate the time & effort that it took for those 2 posts! Double poutines for you. Informative & thought-provoking to an "ant"( grasshoppers may now say: "thought-provoking; ya meens I gotta like think?").

I often use the GHr/Ant fable with my children- 1 of each. Its actually the cause of their disagreements (one wants to borrow in order to party & gets angry when the other refuses the request).

WRT: " is life meant to be a free ride?" Apparently, a resounding "Yea, verily!" how else does one explain the popular media pundits,attempting to change one's perception of "right-of-centre" thought as being "evil"?

Shall now get off my soapbox( I expect to the delight of many who just want to get Cad trading info).

I,also, am suspicious of PRoC releases. So, reviewing OZ & Loonie CoT as well as futures charts- this be my "tekkie take" ( newbies: do not take this for gospel truth, this is just my bias as to how I shall trade. Anyone with a different opinion, I would like to read your reasons on how I erred in my analysis). Remeber, this is a discussion thing and ALL input is valuable!

Aud: comm's increasing their short positions ( I do opposite to them) MacD > than H2O line & signal. ema's going up on future charts. My take is Aud/Us to be long.

Loonie: see OZ (except Us/Cad to be SELL).

STO down & MacD < signal& H2O.

I'm short with TPP 1.0186 ( however, might close early @ 1.0201)

Negative news for euro ( collapse talk- Greece, Portugal,etc) as well as last week's COT data- LTs closing the short positions by 1/2- & lack of BoC jitters; gets me thinking to visit the E/Cad charts & see if there is good thong potential there.

Yep; last weekly candle was bearish engulfing one.

1.4715 2x bottom.

4H STO is down & MacD < H2O.

I like a short if $ < 1.4700.

The publishers of the Canadian Historical magazine,the "BEAVER",
want to change the name-as it is believed to contribute to the declining sales.

I imagine that some special interest groups consider the BEAVER to be offensive! The forest industry comes to mind (since BEAVERS enjoy wood). I suppose that anti-fur SIGs have a hand in this.
I should not be surprised if there was a group that believed that BEAVERS had no useful place in the natural "scheme of things".

To (mis)quote Foto's post: "Give me BEAVER", or give me death!"
(the ex chose the latter).

I shall be voicing my concern to this periodical's publisher & asking whether they intend on renaming the journal "Kitty" or "Regina" which should please the populace of Sask.

Teks look like they might make you $$ .

STO up on D tf but commodity $s still being bought.

E/CAD didn't behave like E/AUD did. Still short E/CAD(AUD).

I suspect BoC news slowed the CAD's strength growth.

Yer last post good numbers. Congrats.

Would you be amenable to a suggestion to share how you arrived at them?

Happy Pipping.

waiting on confirmation for long usdcad. first target 1.045

Nice job! So what's everyone thinking? I am thinking about selling on a failure of 1.0415 area or buying a break. But lot of data out tomo. a.m. and should be interesting to see how Europe and then N.Y. react to the news overnight about China, JAL, republican win in Mass. senate race...

Likely by the time I am awake I will miss any of the good moves anyway...

Cheers!