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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #212,041
  • Jan 14, 2010 10:21am Jan 14, 2010 10:21am
this is a very tricky area.
i am not bullish at the moment. price didn't go through resistance, but turned back and looks like it broke yesterday's support (pvp @ 148.67) on high volume. if i don't see a comeback above 149, we're probably going to test upper 146 again.
here is the chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #212,042
  • Jan 14, 2010 10:21am Jan 14, 2010 10:21am
Quoting USD-Bear
Fine but it keeps testing my nerves, what would be an acceptable SL for a lesser TF that Geppy uses?
I really need to close my computer for a while........
Depends what you're willing to risk. A stop loss slightly below 148.00 looks like it'd be safe to me.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #212,043
  • Jan 14, 2010 10:21am Jan 14, 2010 10:21am
Quoting USD-Bear
Fine but it keeps testing my nerves, what would be an acceptable SL for a lesser TF that Geppy uses?
I really need to close my computer for a while........
IMO, hedge it or get out, you see the big engulfing on 8H?
  • #212,044
  • Jan 14, 2010 10:26am Jan 14, 2010 10:26am
Quoting Geppy
Depends what you're willing to risk. A stop loss slightly below 148.00 looks like it'd be safe to me.
Marvelous, got it @ 147.60 trailing with limit @ 150,68 wish you all luck, thanks...
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #212,045
  • Jan 14, 2010 10:30am Jan 14, 2010 10:30am
Quoting Geppy
Depends what you're willing to risk. A stop loss slightly below 148.00 looks like it'd be safe to me.
My 2 cents, 61.8% of last up move is below 148( 147.96 to be exact ), so if one indeed want to play this, SL should be below 147.9, better even if one look to buy around 148.
  • #212,046
  • Jan 14, 2010 10:31am Jan 14, 2010 10:31am
Quoting USD-Bear
Marvelous, got it @ 147.60 trailing with limit @ 150,68 wish you all luck, thanks...
No worries.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #212,047
  • Jan 14, 2010 10:31am Jan 14, 2010 10:31am
oh, and another chart. if we end up like this today, it doesn't look bullish at all because we're at an important resistance - 149.77 (weekly).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #212,048
  • Jan 14, 2010 10:52am Jan 14, 2010 10:52am
Quoting Geppy
Honestly man, it looks like you just picked a random area on the chart. If e/j were to reach that "target" you'd be nuts to go long. Major support would be broken and you should be looking to get short.

I don't understand you at all.

nooo.... keep an eye on that anyway,to much explaining for me to do ,,anyway.. 130 is THE SUPPORT.. dont understand you ,that the support is broken ? what support ?? 130 is the support
  • #212,049
  • Jan 14, 2010 10:55am Jan 14, 2010 10:55am
Quoting Gucc
nooo.... keep an eye on that anyway,to much explaining for me to do ,,anyway.. 130 is THE SUPPORT.. dont understand you ,that the support is broken ? what support ?? 130 is the support
whatever you say man, whatever you say...
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #212,050
  • Jan 14, 2010 11:07am Jan 14, 2010 11:07am
Quoting Geppy
whatever you say man, whatever you say...

hey..im not here to be wise and clever,neither to get involved with arguments. eventhough ive been in this ugly game for 10 years ,i will always value fellow traders input, learn from our mistakes and hope that my input could be valuable to others.we are all adults here,could we atleast try and discuss our different views without getting personal or rude .
  • #212,051
  • Jan 14, 2010 11:13am Jan 14, 2010 11:13am
I see still no daily close above 149.50 although we touched 149.98. . . May see it back to the daily pivot before close 148.15 and maybe a test of 147.80 support before going higher. . .

Only a break of 147/146 would shatter the up move but would not be surprise to see it revist support below 148 again. . .
  • #212,052
  • Jan 14, 2010 11:30am Jan 14, 2010 11:30am
Quoting quecee5
I see still no daily close above 149.50 although we touched 149.98. . . May see it back to the daily pivot before close 148.15 and maybe a test of 147.80 support before going higher. . .

Only a break of 147/146 would shatter the up move but would not be surprise to see it revist support below 148 again. . .

Hmm bro u are really Guru of GJ...i got similar prices here and i tried to compare with urs...Thanks bro..keeep it up
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #212,053
  • Jan 14, 2010 11:47am Jan 14, 2010 11:47am
i post this sometime this week,to keep an eye on . it looks like a swing entry for Q1 and Q2 this year.. monthly candles might form an evening star..so in feb we might touch the high of the right shoulder again ,before the real down move,but ill short it now,stop above the high for down to leg 5 on mothly
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  • #212,054
  • Jan 14, 2010 11:54am Jan 14, 2010 11:54am
Look at the UJ monthly chart
TA: PA failed to break the major red TL and reversal downward.

Bias Bearish


Look at the GU weekly chart
TA: PA looks bullish at the moment and rallying to the major red TL

IMHO,overall GU is bearish following the downward trend..

Selling all rallies..

The correlation of both UJ and GU are slowly following the same direction..

Major correction is due very soon..

Double Head and Shoulders is starting to look good on the weekly GJ chart.




Major PA is coming...

Stay tune..

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  • #212,055
  • Jan 14, 2010 12:00pm Jan 14, 2010 12:00pm
Quoting donfriday
Hmm bro u are really Guru of GJ...i got similar prices here and i tried to compare with urs...Thanks bro..keeep it up
Yep bro look at the divergence on the 4hr chart now. . . and to add to this we have now touched 150 and the upmove is not being validated by the daily chart divergence. . .

I believe some here stated yesterday that it wasn't daily divergence but I stated that the upmove would happen but to be weary and monitor the 1hr and 4hr chart for the upmove exhaustion. . . then look to enter short.

Played out like clockwork. . . The 4hr chart is diverging lower just like the daily chart - now we can expect one more move upward for the 1hr upmove to play out and then we will have the 1hr, 4hr and daily chart all aligned for a healthy move lower. . .

Wouldn't be surprise to see 151/152/153 being toppy if it makes it back up that far. . . only way I see that happening is if price re-visits support below to exhaust the 4hr OB situation. . .

  • #212,056
  • Jan 14, 2010 12:10pm Jan 14, 2010 12:10pm
agree. lower edge of upmove should be tested, i think somewhere between 148.10 and 146.70 - we'll see.
the bias is still bullish until 146.60 is broken. then we'll play it from there, but since the dominant trend is down i expect major action after that.
as for upside targets, as long as 146.60 is holding, we could see 150/151.60/152.50.
that's as far as i would go for now.

Quoting quecee5
Yep bro look at the divergence on the 4hr chart now. . . and to add to this we have now touched 150 and the upmove is not being validated by the daily chart divergence. . .

I believe some here stated yesterday that it wasn't daily divergence but I stated that the upmove would happen but to be weary and monitor the 1hr and 4hr chart for the upmove exhaustion. . . then look to enter short.

Played out like clockwork. . . The 4hr chart is diverging lower just like the daily chart - now we can expect one more move upward for the 1hr upmove to play...
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #212,057
  • Jan 14, 2010 12:12pm Jan 14, 2010 12:12pm
Quoting quecee5
Yep bro look at the divergence on the 4hr chart now. . . and to add to this we have now touched 150 and the upmove is not being validated by the daily chart divergence. . .

I believe some here stated yesterday that it wasn't daily divergence but I stated that the upmove would happen but to be weary and monitor the 1hr and 4hr chart for the upmove exhaustion. . . then look to enter short.

Played out like clockwork. . . The 4hr chart is diverging lower just like the daily chart - now we can expect one more move upward for the 1hr upmove to...
Bro see what happen to me today..sold and set 50 sl ...just imagine where it closed me and drop ...it hurt badly.
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #212,058
  • Jan 14, 2010 12:17pm Jan 14, 2010 12:17pm
Quoting Scrat
agree. lower edge of upmove should be tested, i think somewhere between 148.10 and 146.70 - we'll see.
the bias is still bullish until 146.60 is broken. then we'll play it from there, but since the dominant trend is down i expect major action after that.
as for upside targets, as long as 146.60 is holding, we could see 150/151.60/152.50.
that's as far as i would go for now.
Scrat agreed and that's where I stand due to the daily chart not acknowledging the upmoves we've been seeing.

Now I do agree that 146 should be very good support based on the weekly chart so I see this pair being in range mode from 146-151. . . until we see it breach one of those areas we play the range for now. . .
  • #212,059
  • Jan 14, 2010 12:54pm Jan 14, 2010 12:54pm
ill possibly add more at 149.11,and if you are not short yet,its a good res area to go short..
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  • #212,060
  • Jan 14, 2010 1:10pm Jan 14, 2010 1:10pm
Quoting Gucc
ill possibly add more at 149.11,and if you are not short yet,its a good res area to go short..
It's hard to believe we'll see 149.1 in the next 8 hours or so - I think that's what you're predicting. I say that because of the ominous daily candle that's formed. Only a surge in UJ will get us there, esp. since we've only gone down 50% of the overall last up move. I'd think we're heading to 38.2%/23% or 147.9/5 first, then back up. Just a guess, and I hope I'm wrong.
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