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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #211,861
  • Jan 13, 2010 3:46pm Jan 13, 2010 3:46pm
I can see UJ going down and re-testing the 90.80 level again - not sure if it'll break though - agree that we should wait for top in GU which probably will be in the 6350/80 area
  • #211,862
  • Jan 13, 2010 3:52pm Jan 13, 2010 3:52pm
Published: Wed, 13 Jan 2010 06:26 AM Sterling has pushed its way into the forefront this morning rallying as far as GBP/USD1.6265 and EUR/GBP 0.8916 this morning. The incentive for the move was an interview in the Guardian newspaper with BoE hawk Andrew Sentance. Asked if it were right to assume that BoE policy would be on hold for the rest of the rest Sentance responded that “it would be wise not to put yourself in that camp”. The market took this as a bullish signal for sterling even though most pragmatic gamblers would agree with this view insofar as surveys are indicating that market economists have for a while been favouring a BoE rate hike in Q3. That said Sentance does strengthen the view that the BoE will not extend QE at next month’s meeting. He remarked that “at some point you have to say we have increased the amount of stimulus enough”. This is not a shock, however, since the slowing down in the pace of asset buying by the BoE has already strengthened the case that the BoE will announce a ‘pause’ next month. The bullish take from Sentance’s remarks will likely be brought back to earth by economic data which continues to show just a lacklustre economic recovery for the UK. Today’s release of Nov industrial production was a touch better than expected at +0.4% m/m. However, manufacturing was flat m/m. Overall, while the UK economy is set to pull out of recession in Q4, the momentum from this sector remains uninspiring. Also supporting sterling today were rumours of sterling buying interest related to last week’s award of a British wind farm contract to a Swedish power group.
News from Germany’s statistics office that economic growth in the country probably stagnated in Q4 is a blow to confidence in the Eurozone’s economic recovery. Germany had grown by +0.7% q/q in Q3. While official German Q4 data will not be published until Feb 12, this morning German 2009 growth was published at a worse than expected -5%. Some comfort will be drawn from the better than expected German budget deficit (at 3.2% of GDP). Overall, however, this morning’s news will weigh on a EUR already made vulnerable by the ongoing crisis with respect to the Greek budget. EUR/USD has pivoted around the 1.4490 area this morning. The German news supported the USD at the European open but the USD’s position remarks weakened by last week’s payrolls data.
AUD/USD has trended higher ahead of tomorrow’s key Australian labour data as reports of a lack of skilled workers in the construction sector underpins hopes of another good report. While the risk trade remains was damaged by yesterday’s tightening moves by the PBOC, stocks indices in Europe have managed a mixed morning and the yen is softer on the crosses today.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #211,863
  • Jan 13, 2010 4:27pm Jan 13, 2010 4:27pm
Downtrend TL hit
  • #211,864
  • Edited 5:38pm Jan 13, 2010 5:02pm | Edited 5:38pm
Quoting USD-Bear
GU not yet topping
UJ not yet topping
think I'll have to wait for shorts.

What do you think, is this a valid bear-flag for UJ-Hourly, or am I imagening things ?
PS, look how nice H&S worked this time with pullback/count and all (normally it does'nt)

Attachment
Well, if it is a bear-flag
1. It takes alot of time to break
2. It is bluddy stable
Cautious Long @ 148.65
Stop @ 148.50
I'm finally with you Geppy, question is for how long, if it goes wrong will bill you for 15 pips tomorow morning......gn
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #211,865
  • Jan 13, 2010 8:52pm Jan 13, 2010 8:52pm
149.30 now n down in us session ..let c what happen from 149.60/70....
  • #211,866
  • Jan 13, 2010 8:58pm Jan 13, 2010 8:58pm
OK this is my current demo trade on my Pandoras Box system ...


If anyone interest to learn tehnique (see my signature)...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpyy.gif Size: 51 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #211,867
  • Jan 13, 2010 9:02pm Jan 13, 2010 9:02pm
Quoting USD-Bear
I'm finally with you Geppy, question is for how long, if it goes wrong will bill you for 15 pips tomorow morning......gn
Glad for the company, I've just been sitting tight with my longs
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #211,868
  • Jan 13, 2010 10:07pm Jan 13, 2010 10:07pm
Quoting Geppy
Glad for the company, I've just been sitting tight with my longs

150.12 is the max... im still long.but had reverse sell at 150.10
  • #211,869
  • Jan 13, 2010 10:09pm Jan 13, 2010 10:09pm
it looks like price is above previous swing resistance (148.80 area) so i expect a run to 151.70 (at least). if 153.30 is taken, then hello 157 .
trade safely
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #211,870
  • Jan 13, 2010 10:15pm Jan 13, 2010 10:15pm
off topic CFTC introduced a bill to cut leverage to 10:1. You have 60 days to make comments.

http://www.cftc.gov/newsroom/general...pr5772-10.html
  • #211,871
  • Jan 13, 2010 10:20pm Jan 13, 2010 10:20pm
Quoting Maxsmart
off topic CFTC introduced a bill to cut leverage to 10:1. You have 60 days to make comments.

http://www.cftc.gov/newsroom/general...pr5772-10.html
And you can always have a forex account overseas. But if they start it here. It will reach there eventually most likely.
  • #211,872
  • Jan 13, 2010 10:22pm Jan 13, 2010 10:22pm
I am sort here @149.45 with tight stop loss. SL 149.61 tgt 147.70
  • #211,873
  • Jan 13, 2010 10:42pm Jan 13, 2010 10:42pm
Quoting Maxsmart
off topic CFTC introduced a bill to cut leverage to 10:1. You have 60 days to make comments.

http://www.cftc.gov/newsroom/general...pr5772-10.html
its really amazing isn't it that regulatory bodies keep going after the little guys.

Retail forex traders, operating in the most liquid market in the world with collective account sizes that wouldn't be able to move the market for diddly squat to have their leverage cut to 10:1 whilst all those TBTF continue to operate with assets in highly illiquid markets, with amounts that could potentially threaten the entire US economy, without a leverage cap. Gotta luv what makes those morons tick......
  • #211,874
  • Jan 13, 2010 10:42pm Jan 13, 2010 10:42pm
Quoting hindart
I am sort here @149.45 with tight stop loss. SL 149.61 tgt 147.70
Me too
  • #211,875
  • Jan 13, 2010 10:45pm Jan 13, 2010 10:45pm
Quoting Maxsmart
off topic CFTC introduced a bill to cut leverage to 10:1. You have 60 days to make comments.

http://www.cftc.gov/newsroom/general...pr5772-10.html
How likely is it , that that will pass/ Is that just for forex and not stocks? Why not just trade stocks then?
  • #211,876
  • Jan 13, 2010 10:53pm Jan 13, 2010 10:53pm
Quoting Clouds
How likely is it , that that will pass/ Is that just for forex and not stocks? Why not just trade stocks then?
its for retail forex accounts. They say their open to public comment. But its been proposed. I rarely see public comments change their minds. They arleady took it from 400:1 down to 100:1. Imagine

your margine requirement for eur/usd $1,450 for $1 a pip. and
$14,500 for a standard lot!! at $10 a pip. If you read the link you see the whole proposal.
  • #211,877
  • Jan 13, 2010 10:57pm Jan 13, 2010 10:57pm
Quoting Maxsmart
its for retail forex accounts. They say their open to public comment. But its been proposed. I rarely see public comments change their minds. They arleady took it from 400:1 down to 100:1. Imagine

your margine requirement for eur/usd $1,450 for $1 a pip. and
$14,500 for a standard lot!! at $10 a pip. If you read the link you see the whole proposal.
Does it have to go through a voting committee or anything, or they'll just pass it at will?
  • #211,878
  • Jan 13, 2010 11:00pm Jan 13, 2010 11:00pm
Thinking how I can 10X my capital this week. :/
  • #211,879
  • Jan 13, 2010 11:03pm Jan 13, 2010 11:03pm
I'm not to sure. I plan on calling tomorrow morning to find out. I remember when there was basically no cap on leverage and there proposal came out and I didnt do anything and it went down to a 100. So I'm definitely going to call and make a stand this time. I'm pretty sure they still have to vote on this one. Its not a done deal yet.

And I dont really see their site who we are supposed to deliver our comments.
  • #211,880
  • Jan 13, 2010 11:28pm Jan 13, 2010 11:28pm
Alright then, scrat.
Quoting Scrat
it looks like price is above previous swing resistance (148.80 area) so i expect a run to 151.70 (at least). if 153.30 is taken, then hello 157 .
trade safely
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