Keeping it Simple

I have been trading for about a Year and a Half. I started out with Moving Averages probably like everyone else. I actually had some luck if I had the patients and was lucky enough to be at my computer when the Market moved.
( I start work at 6:30 AM Mountain so if I get there early I catch the NY Open) I lucked out or else I probably would have been discouraged and quit.

Then
I became a victim of James and Team Forex, 5 Minute Forex didnt work for me and at least 4 or 5 tricked me into paying them as well as giving me bogus calls. I took a couple months off and let it rest.

Since then I have been addicted to the Market although in the past couple weeks I am starting to finally feel like I can make it.

(Go on Bear Share and search for Forex, Trading and anything else you want. Only download the Videos and Ebooks.)

For a couple months I have been studying the the 5 minute charts, Tops and Bottoms, Reversal Candles, Bars you know the drill.
In the past couple weeks I switched back to the first Indicator I was introduced to.

The EMA Crosses hourly chart, and have been studying every indicator I can think of to identify the real moves and eliminate Wipsaw. Be it by more selective entries or a quicker indicator of the Whip once your in.

Does anyone know of a good indicator to idendify the Whipsaw?

Am I crazy for thinking its this easy? In the past 3 weeks I have blown up on paper by using Alert FX to notify me of the Cross and using just Common Sense and hard learned lessons to get in and out. Many 100 point moves even more 50 point moves.

Anyone been here?

well if it's working stick to it and experiment other sysetm on demo before you trade them.

Thanks!!!

I use the 4 EMA and the 20 or 30 with the 200 EMA for a Trent Guideline. I set fxalert to page my phone when ever it crosses any of the 4 majors ( I don't like AUD/USD. The 4 majors seem to always move anywhere from 10 to 100 + points. They only cross 1 to 3 times a day usually however sometimes 3 to 7 times. In anycase with the phone alert you don't have to watch all day waiting for something worth while to happen.

I'm trying to figure out the best way to take advantage of the moves. I try to use News, Highs and Lows for numerous time frames as well as Chart Paterns in mind while deciding when to enter and exit. I love Intellecharts!!!

There are some other indicators I have used that seem to atleast be something for a blind guy to lean on.

In anycase for anyone who is willing to exchange thoughts and experiances I welcome your feedback and am willing to share everyting I learn as well.

If you are looking for any EBooks let me know. I came across a ton of them.

hi..


The worry I have nutmg12 is with the question you asked...

Does anyone know of a good indicator to idendify the Whipsaw?

with all your reading and studying the charts you should have come to the conclusion by now that no such thing exists...if it did we would all be rich.

The only way to reduce this is to move up in timeframe and even then with data releases most days the market can move in any direction in quick moves.

My advice: the sooner you realize that indicators are not the key to trading, the better.

Besides that, work on your patience and discipline. Those two ARE more crucial than any MA crossover.

I agree with the 2 posys above. If you want to stick trading short time frame.

Trade it only in specific hours, Japan, Uk and Us openings are the best. In my opinion, 4 pairs are way too much for short term, 1 or 2 are the max, look at its, had a feel of it and after a while you will start to recognize patterns and prices movements. And that's there that your indicators will all make sense.
Anyway, it is just that i am trying to do.

Good luck.
Larry.

Thanks for the feedback. I was alerted last night when the EMA 4 crossed the EMA 20 EUR/USD. It set up an entry at 1.1805 the price is currently at 1.1950. In the past 3 weeks this has happened at least 10 times. The trick is to be able to get in fast enough and getting out at some point before the lines cross again.



Your advise on the indicators is right on. I will continue looking for chart patterns as well as using the commentary available to deciede where to get out. Since the slower average moves up with the price and the faster average always crosses on a big move, after a buy you can use the Alert FX Page as your stop incase it reverses.

Could you tell us more about this FX Alert service you keep mentioning? Is there a website? Is it a program or script? Any advice is appreciated.

Its a free service. YOu can create Price Alerts or indicator alerts. The send to your SMS Cell email/number.

Intellecharts for 100 dollars a month allows you to create your own alerts (much more detailed than AlertFX.



If I'm not suppose to post links I appologize and won't do it anymore.
http://www.alertfx.com/

Hi all,

I'm new to this and was reading with interest the use of 4, 20 and 30 EMA to enter and exit. Could you tell me which time frames this works best on please.

Regards

Hi,
Prices move from extreme to extreme within any given time frame. Between the extremes of the price movement there will naturally exist a "mean price". The mean price zone or area is where your 'whipsaws' will occur, so what you really want is a tool to identify the mean price whereby you can avoid trading close to it.

Try a Regression Channel (or failing that an EMA envelope with a Ema running through the center) and trade from the extremes in the direction of the trend.

Hope this helps,

Steve

I'm no expert.
Try the 3 or 4 and the 20 on your demo or paper. You'll see some good opertunities. You have to get there fast when the lines cross though.

This is great. I'm not really sure what your describing but I'm sure I'll have fun figureing it out. What you say about the "mean Price" makes total sense.

Thanks for your help!!!

Hi nutmg12

I'd like to expand on this just a little further, if I may, because I believe I would be doing you a disservice if I didn't.

Recapping: Markets move up, down or sideways (sideways with varying degrees of bias), travelling from extreme to extreme through the "mean". This behavior is sometimes called swing high/swing low or zig zag.

I have already detailed a way in which one could avoid "whipsaws" and select only high probability trades in a sideways market by trading from one extreme toward the mean, assuming volitility warrants it. By looking at the recent price behavior you can easily see how volitile the market is, relative to the envelope, whereby identyfying possible opportunities. (If you do have a Linear Regression Channel included in your software, you may want to consider using it since its width adjusts to the markets volitility automatically, based on statistacal measurments.)

The same technique can be used in a market which is going up or down.
As an example; suppose your chosen market is moving down. It will, generally speaking, swing high/swing low or zig zag in that direction. The price will either oscillate above or below the "mean" or the "mean" can act as "support", depending on the severity of the downward move. In either case you have a visual aide which will help you determine when to time your short sale.

As you know the optimal place to short is at the top of the "swing high", just after the crest, when the price begins to fall. If you wish, you can use your MA crossover, in a lower time frame, to help you identify this.


Regards,

Steve

I'm no expert.
Try the 3 or 4 and the 20 on your demo or paper. You'll see some good opertunities. You have to get there fast when the lines cross though.


Thank you, I'll try that, but what time frame(s) seem to work best for you ???

Regrads

J

very sad story. I hope you become a successful person.