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Silent Service Method

  • #6,661
  • Jan 12, 2010 1:00pm Jan 12, 2010 1:00pm
lower timeframe, but worth a look to watch what happens at any rate. Pinbar into known support.
aud/jpy 1 hour chart
Attached Image
  • #6,662
  • Jan 12, 2010 1:09pm Jan 12, 2010 1:09pm
Hi bigandrich, i would leave this pair alone for now. If i really have to trade it, i would for shorts....take a look at my weekly......Support, Support turned Resistance and now we testing Resistance again.................on the weekly........

i do not trade 1-hrs and 4-hrs TFs........these two timeframes have taught afew lessons how not to trade...................

Quoting bigandrich
lower timeframe, but worth a look to watch what happens at any rate. Pinbar into known support.
aud/jpy 1 hour chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,663
  • Jan 12, 2010 1:40pm Jan 12, 2010 1:40pm
definitely, every trader has a timeframe(s) they are comfortable with. Just watching the reaction in this area
  • #6,664
  • Jan 12, 2010 2:47pm Jan 12, 2010 2:47pm
this trade is doing very well for the moment
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  • #6,665
  • Jan 12, 2010 3:06pm Jan 12, 2010 3:06pm
This week there were so many setups which worked with the strategy.
A lot of trades went well - at least until now. There can happen some times in which this strategy works well and other times when the strategy maybe gets some problems.

So I think it is important to learn strategies which are anti correlated with each other, so that you can make profit continuously.
This aspect of trading is quite important especially when one trades on higher timeframes with a high risk.

But I am sure that the strategy presented here works fine alone, when you set your risk at a medium or low level.


Centaure
  • #6,666
  • Jan 12, 2010 4:02pm Jan 12, 2010 4:02pm
Quoting Centaure
This week there were so many setups which worked with the strategy.
A lot of trades went well - at least until now. There can happen some times in which this strategy works well and other times when the strategy maybe gets some problems.

So I think it is important to learn strategies which are anti correlated...
By the wording of this post, I can only conclude one thing:

"But I am sure that the strategy presented here works fine alone, when you set your risk at a medium or low level."

This says that there are times when using a high risk are alright. That is never true, and the first time you go to that.....you are in trouble. I can only assume you tried to leverage your trade on a fairly high percentage?

I have the EUR/AUD trade that is working fine.....NZD/USD is in a drawdown, but that's monthly.....and I shorted CHF/JPY which is alright, a little better than break even. I am not sure which set ups you refer to.

Corn got pummeled this morning. ($1,500 on a single contract, thank you very much! Although, in full disclosure, I didn't get but half of it myself. Normally on a move like that, the bounce is brutal.)

Perhaps if you showed some set ups that you had failed - I will be more than happy to show you my thoughts on them.

Chris
  • #6,667
  • Jan 12, 2010 4:03pm Jan 12, 2010 4:03pm
Quoting samer960
this trade is doing very well for the moment

Good for you Samer! Just keep an eye on that trend line, and the consolidation above it......remember, we are in an uptrend long term.

Good trade.

Chris
  • #6,668
  • Jan 12, 2010 4:19pm Jan 12, 2010 4:19pm
Quoting clockwork71
By the wording of this post, I can only conclude one thing:

"But I am sure that the strategy presented here works fine alone, when you set your risk at a medium or low level."

This says that there are times when using a high risk are alright. That is never true, and the first time you go to that.....you are in trouble. I can only assume you tried to leverage your trade on a fairly high percentage?

I have the EUR/AUD trade that is working fine.....NZD/USD is in a drawdown, but that's monthly.....and I shorted CHF/JPY which is alright,...
Actually I refer to the "Silent Service Method" Strategy and other strategies, which do not have anything to do with the way we are talking about here.

I think when somebody wants to increase his risk to high risk, he needs to diversify the risk into different anti correlated strategies that his drawdown gets reduced. That means for me e.g Silent Service Method, EAs, Volume, Scalping. If one has some different strategies which are anti correlated you do not have to worry so much when one strategy fails (for short time) because it is compensated by another.

By the way I do not use the high risk strategy at the moment, since I have to test it first whether it can work on low/medium risk.
  • #6,669
  • Jan 12, 2010 4:37pm Jan 12, 2010 4:37pm
Quoting Centaure
Actually I refer to the "Silent Service Method" Strategy and other strategies, which do not have anything to do with the way we are talking about here.

I think when somebody wants to increase his risk to high risk, he needs to diversify the risk into different anti correlated strategies that his drawdown gets reduced. That means for me e.g Silent Service Method, EAs, Volume, Scalping. If one has some different strategies which are anti correlated you do not have to worry so much when one strategy fails (for short time) because it is compensated...
How can you determine the degree of correlation between these different strategies?

My two cents is to focus on one method (the best one imho Pring/J16/Clockwork71) and perfect it.

Skipping back and forth between different strategies doesn't sound optimal to me (I've been there...)
  • #6,670
  • Jan 12, 2010 4:47pm Jan 12, 2010 4:47pm
Quoting o990l6mh
How can you determine the degree of correlation between these different strategies?

My two cents is to focus on one method (the best one imho Pring/J16/Clockwork71) and perfect it.

Skipping back and forth between different strategies doesn't sound optimal to me (I've been there...)
OK, the degree of correlation of manual trading systems depends on experience, EAs are here easier, because you just have to add all strategies into one and look at the equity curve. It is of course a delicate matter to find out which system correlates with a certain other.

You also have to take into account the unexpected events for which you need a strategy to keep your money and reduce risk.

It is right to focus on few things, because one's mind should not be distracted by other strategies to much, because it is important to keep the overview over the market. In my opinion one can restrict on a few strategies depending on how much leisure time one has.
  • #6,671
  • Jan 12, 2010 5:23pm Jan 12, 2010 5:23pm
Quoting Centaure
I think when somebody wants to increase his risk to high risk, he needs to diversify the risk into different anti correlated strategies that his drawdown gets reduced. That means for me e.g Silent Service Method, EAs, Volume, Scalping. If one has some different strategies which are anti correlated you do not have to worry so much when one strategy fails (for short time) because it is compensated by another.
I think what is confusing to me and other people who post on this thread is what exactly you mean by high risk. To me, "high risk" means the potential of having a serious & demoralizing draw down -- say 10% or more in a day(although for me the % is much lower than that...). If I have $2,000 in equity and take a trade for $2/pip with 100 pip stop loss, that is a super-high-risk trade (to me). Maybe for others this isn't, but I'm more concerned with losing my equity than I am with the potential for profits.

Now, lets say you have 3 systems which you believe to be negatively correlated with one another and you do a trade like the one I described earlier in all three systems. If all three trades lose, you are now down 30% and that's a hard hole to climb out of.

The problem with "diversification" or negatively correlated strategies is that people make the mistake of assuming that correlation doesn't change. It can and it does change (sometimes dramatically) over time. Something that was perfectly negatively correlated last year might only have a 50% or 0% correlation this year.

In my opinion you should always be looking for low risk trades (with high payoffs). Risking 100 pips to make 400 for example, or risking 200 to make 700. Whatever your comfortable with. If you are risking 50 pips to make 5, you need to win 10 times to pay for the 1 time your stop gets hit -- Just to break even! That's a high risk proposition to me, unless you know that your stop gets hit rarely....

Ok, now i'm just rambling...

I think the issue is your usage of the term "high risk" - no one wants a high risk trade, they want a low risk trade with a big payoff. A trade where you can sleep at night and not worry about your equity disappearing!
  • #6,672
  • Jan 12, 2010 6:29pm Jan 12, 2010 6:29pm
Quoting InfinitySL
I think what is confusing to me and other people who post on this thread is what exactly you mean by high risk....
Very well put. In fact, it's pretty much what I was getting at.
  • #6,673
  • Jan 12, 2010 8:04pm Jan 12, 2010 8:04pm
Quoting o990l6mh
....Skipping back and forth between different strategies doesn't sound optimal to me (I've been there...)
Haven't we all?
  • #6,674
  • Jan 12, 2010 8:48pm Jan 12, 2010 8:48pm
I am seeing this monthly support as significant. I will buy every time I get stopped out for a while, on signs of strength.

Here is an update to that EUR/AUD trade I mentioned in passing the other day. I will move stops up if we get to 1.5850....if not, I will t/p where the stop is sitting.
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  • #6,675
  • Jan 13, 2010 4:09am Jan 13, 2010 4:09am
Quoting clockwork71
Went short CHF/JPY (30,000) @ 89.281

Charts attached.
Hello Chris

Was this box trade stopped out?
Regards
  • #6,676
  • Jan 13, 2010 6:30am Jan 13, 2010 6:30am
Quoting clockwork71
Still waiting for corn to pop. (pun intended)
It popped... just in the wrong direction.

http://i437.photobucket.com/albums/q...01-13_Corn.png

That comment should end "...before initiating a position." Not sure why it got cut off.

Anyway, in case you are wondering "why" it moved in such a fashion:
"Chicago Board of Trade corn futures tumbled Tuesday, dropping by the exchange's daily trading limit following the government's bearish crop estimates, traders said....The reason for the drop was the U.S. Department of Agriculture's projected record U.S. crop of 13.151 billion bushels, including a huge yield of 165.2 bushels per acre."

Where's the crop report Beeks?....Sell Mortimer...SELL!
  • #6,677
  • Jan 13, 2010 7:17am Jan 13, 2010 7:17am
Quoting bigandrich
definitely, every trader has a timeframe(s) they are comfortable with. Just watching the reaction in this area
Turns out, this played out pretty well, and returned to where one might expect.
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  • #6,678
  • Jan 13, 2010 7:41am Jan 13, 2010 7:41am
Nice One bigandrich....i do not do 1-hr TFs but my bais is still to the down side but for quick 60 or 70 pips with bar highs or low targets.......that was a good one.......

Quoting bigandrich
Turns out, this played out pretty well, and returned to where one might expect.
  • #6,679
  • Jan 13, 2010 7:44am Jan 13, 2010 7:44am
Quoting InfinitySL
It popped... just in the wrong direction.

http://i437.photobucket.com/albums/q...01-13_Corn.png

That comment should end "...before initiating a position."...


No doubt, Mr. Beeks is probably in a gorilla suit somewhere.
  • #6,680
  • Jan 13, 2010 7:45am Jan 13, 2010 7:45am
Quoting howard
Hello Chris

Was this box trade stopped out?

No, I put stop above the top of the box.....if you look back, there is a few pokes up to 91.50 or so. (Don't have charts open atm, going by memory.)

I am thinking longer term, and looking for a return to the bottom......
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