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Trend Trading Chart Thread

  • #581
  • Jan 11, 2010 11:43am Jan 11, 2010 11:43am
Quoting Kanderpro
Coolshades entered short on USD/CHF soon after Dan. (When I learn how to put two quotes on the same reply, I will.)

Hi Dan and Coolshades,

I'm guessing that you entered these trades shortly after the reaction to the NFP numbers and the (not uncommon) almost 100% retrace. I've avoided trading anywhere near NFP release and I know many traders just write the day off.

Have you any general strategies re trading near NFP release and/or a specific strategy for entering a trade in the price behaviour following Friday's NFP release?

Thanks,

Kan...
Hi,

The only advice I would give is to avoid NFP Friday altogether!!!

It just so happens that I was right with my trades this week (they were placed in the morning, GMT, well before the news release) but I could easily have been wrong!

Regards,

Dan
  • #582
  • Jan 11, 2010 11:54am Jan 11, 2010 11:54am
Quoting coolshades
fellow trendies, keep your beady eyes on this too for a retracement.
1.5000 looks like an interesting level...
  • #583
  • Jan 11, 2010 12:02pm Jan 11, 2010 12:02pm
Quoting bluehorizon
anyone having another look at usdjpy?

There is some resistance above still, but it does look tempting..

Update: order placed at 92.50

Update: long at 92.50
Hi Blue,

Sorry I was unable to reply sooner. The only concern I have with this trade is the reaction u/j had when it hit the downward trendline at 93.50 - sent it straight back to 92.00.

Now, if 92.00 manages to hold I will be thinking maybe another long at 92.50 but if it doesn't then I will be looking for an opportunity to sell.

Regards,

Dan
  • #584
  • Jan 11, 2010 12:54pm Jan 11, 2010 12:54pm
Hi Dan, nice thread!
Just wanted to ask what you and the other guys think about gold, if anybody watches it?
I'm long from early jan off the daily chart- price meandered around 61 fib and then blasted through.
Todays bar is looking like a spinning top, sitting on the 38 fib- i'll probably aim to close half, move remainder s/l to 1137.
Just wondered what anybody else sees?

Cheers
  • #585
  • Jan 11, 2010 1:23pm Jan 11, 2010 1:23pm
Hi Dan and everyone.

I have posted a few questions in the past, hope to contribute and learn.

Dan, you put up a USDJPY chart a earlier which caused me to pause and look at my setup on CADJPY (attached).

I pulled my line from I guess a more minor trend then yours. Question is are both equally valid?

Input from all welcomed!

Thanks,
BR
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #586
  • Jan 11, 2010 1:58pm Jan 11, 2010 1:58pm
Quoting w buffet jnr
Hi Dan, nice thread!
Just wanted to ask what you and the other guys think about gold, if anybody watches it?
I'm long from early jan off the daily chart- price meandered around 61 fib and then blasted through.
Todays bar is looking like a spinning top, sitting on the 38 fib- i'll probably aim to close half, move remainder s/l to 1137.
Just wondered what anybody else sees?

Cheers
Hi Mr Buffet Jnr,

I personally don't trade Gold so I can't really comment but it looks like you had a good trade - congratulations!

Regards,

Dan
  • #587
  • Jan 11, 2010 2:06pm Jan 11, 2010 2:06pm
on the topic of that cad yen chart and alot of other pairs i would like to just check with experienced traders of this method a few things.

after reading the whole thread i believe you look for more long term trendlines and pullbacks to these levels for more solid trades. perhaps it could be said that 45 degree trend line is more stable than a steep one and also a shorter term trend line may be more susceptible to break?

i have this other trend line drawn from the daily and zoomed out 4 hour. i find that more often than not i can find a short term trend line and a longer term one.

its probably almost worth waiting for a pullback to the longer term trendline perhaps?

im still learning though thankyou everyone
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #588
  • Jan 11, 2010 2:08pm Jan 11, 2010 2:08pm
Quoting Big1red9
Hi Dan and everyone.

I have posted a few questions in the past, hope to contribute and learn.

Dan, you put up a USDJPY chart a earlier which caused me to pause and look at my setup on CADJPY (attached).

I pulled my line from I guess a more minor trend then yours. Question is are both equally valid?

Input from all welcomed!

Thanks,
BR
Hi BR,

Trendlines are soooooo subjective that they become overcomplicated. I prefer to keep them simple and use "outer" trendlines and use them to guide me to horizontal support and resistance levels.

Is your line valid? Yes I would say so but equally valid? Perhaps not. I am not saying your line is wrong or can't be traded but I think it represents shorter term price movements. Does that make any sense?

I hope I have been of some assistance!

Regards,

Dan
  • #589
  • Jan 11, 2010 2:11pm Jan 11, 2010 2:11pm
Quoting supermatt
on the topic of that cad yen chart and alot of other pairs i would like to just check with experienced traders of this method a few things.

after reading the whole thread i believe you look for more long term trendlines and pullbacks to these levels for more solid trades. perhaps it could be said that 45 degree trend line is more stable than a steep one and also a shorter term trend line may be more susceptible to break?

i have this other trend line drawn from the daily and zoomed out 4 hour. i find that more often than not i can find a short...
Hi Supermatt,

Yes I agree with that. Thank you for your chart - it helps to illustrate better what I was trying to say in some weird way (outer trendline etc)!

Regards,

Dan
  • #590
  • Jan 11, 2010 2:13pm Jan 11, 2010 2:13pm
Thx Dan,
the break of the 61 was important, but to be honest, it was really the upsurge through the 1109-1113 zone,that got me in.
Hoping to contribute to a nice thread in future,
Chf/yen has my attention, waiting for the close/ looking for a close below 90.00 to make me sit up and take notice.

Regards
  • #591
  • Jan 11, 2010 2:16pm Jan 11, 2010 2:16pm
Dan,

Got it... maybe means.... both valid. Yours is like an SUV and mine like a YUGO. Both transportation but.

Thanks
BR

Quoting DanUK
Hi BR,

Trendlines are soooooo subjective that they become overcomplicated. I prefer to keep them simple and use "outer" trendlines and use them to guide me to horizontal support and resistance levels.

Is your line valid? Yes I would say so but equally valid? Perhaps not. I am not saying your line is wrong or can't be traded but I think it represents shorter term price movements. Does that make any sense?

I hope I have been of some assistance!

Regards,

Dan
  • #592
  • Jan 11, 2010 2:20pm Jan 11, 2010 2:20pm
Supermatt,

I appreciate you taking the time to create the chart pic. It helped make it clear!

Thanks,
BR

Quoting supermatt
on the topic of that cad yen chart and alot of other pairs i would like to just check with experienced traders of this method a few things.

after reading the whole thread i believe you look for more long term trendlines and pullbacks to these levels for more solid trades. perhaps it could be said that 45 degree trend line is more stable than a steep one and also a shorter term trend line may be more susceptible to break?

i have this other trend line drawn from the daily and zoomed out 4 hour. i find that more often than not i can find a short...
  • #593
  • Jan 11, 2010 2:22pm Jan 11, 2010 2:22pm
no worries just to illustrate the point a tad further, this is similar to alot of other pairs ie cad yen in that we do have a steep trendline most notibly seen on the 4 hour but a more solid trade would be to wait till we get more of a rally and look to buy on the long term trendline. with the imaginary rally it would give us a good spot to draw a fib from and 50 % would be right around that upper longterm trendline area.

well thats just my thoughts, very inexperienced here, but it seems like a decent play if it happens

anyway thats my last chart post for today. have a great day people
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #594
  • Edited 2:36pm Jan 11, 2010 2:34pm | Edited 2:36pm
What can i say. A few martinis and i get chatty!
You are correct.
T/L should be corrected to account for increased momentum.
However, imho, transferring them or indeed comparing them on a different timeframe, serves no purpose.
The TL can only be valid on the TF drawn.

Regards

p.s why apart from Dan, r u guys trading off 4hr charts?
They are too quick and unreliable!
  • #595
  • Jan 11, 2010 5:58pm Jan 11, 2010 5:58pm
ty

Quoting w buffet jnr
What can i say. A few martinis and i get chatty!
You are correct.
T/L should be corrected to account for increased momentum.
However, imho, transferring them or indeed comparing them on a different timeframe, serves no purpose.
The TL can only be valid on the TF drawn.

Regards

p.s why apart from Dan, r u guys trading off 4hr charts?
They are too quick and unreliable!
  • #596
  • Jan 11, 2010 6:10pm Jan 11, 2010 6:10pm
I'm very comfortable with H4 time frame it works for me but you could debate and have arguments for all time frames it's all down to personality.
  • #597
  • Jan 12, 2010 4:57pm Jan 12, 2010 4:57pm
Dan or anyone, do you consider this trade? It has TL and 50%Fibo confluence.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #598
  • Jan 12, 2010 6:53pm Jan 12, 2010 6:53pm
ucad caught my eye as well. would we be looking for an entry at 1.03500? because its a round number and 50 pips below the price now so we have momentum? or is that a little late do you think? i do notice there is possibly demand at that level to. hmmm
  • #599
  • Edited Jan 13, 2010 10:54am Jan 12, 2010 8:04pm | Edited Jan 13, 2010 10:54am
Hi Carrot,

I have market experience, but am new to this method. I am a systems numbers guy more than a chartist.

I have attached a couple of pictures as I see UC. On the 4 hr, I tossed in a MA to show how the trend shifted from one price channel to another more clearly shown by using regression channels. More recently it broke out of the current channel.

As my eyes sees the charts I put together, The close is a bit shy of the 50 fib and so I would guess a pullback from this point is required. Which changes the setup. Thinking price needs 1.040500, but 1.04100 would be better.

Take care,
BR
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uc1.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: uc2.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #600
  • Jan 12, 2010 11:07pm Jan 12, 2010 11:07pm
If you look at the weekly of the usd/cad there's huge support & resistance at 1.3000 becarful.
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