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Islander and Medici trade the European open

  • #141
  • Jan 11, 2010 5:45am Jan 11, 2010 5:45am
Quoting medici
Thanks, that's very helpful. Just like you I think that ~15 pip stops for 1-5% of margin the way to go.

I don't understand the people on the G/U G/J U/J thread shorting cable now with a 100+ pip stop when the trend is up. The only thing that could motivate that, in my limited understanding, is that your account is to large to day-trade, i.e. many $Ms. And even then I would build my positions differently.
Yep I'm up to 2% risk.

I just cannot trade with the mega stops.

There is a very important level coming up 6232 but again I'd wait at minimum for a lh on 1 min just to at least have a chance of that level holding.

4hr attached.
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  • #142
  • Jan 11, 2010 5:49am Jan 11, 2010 5:49am
Quote from e mini watch email I just got.


US Dollar Index: Commitment of Traders
Professionals -9.2% (short) and Oscillator +103
Big change during the last month in the Commitment of Traders report for the US Dollar. The Professionals have gone from +34% Long to -9.2% Short.
The US Dollar Oscillator also crossed the zero line, peaked at +123 in the over-bought region and has now rolled over. This week's reading is +103 (note: last bar on the chart reads +81 but last week's reading was +103).
  • #143
  • Jan 11, 2010 5:56am Jan 11, 2010 5:56am
I agree about not shorting cable yet.....especially as most of the guys in DTs thread are trading longer term off higher TFs.....even the 1 min chart is still trending up.

If you are trading the longer term moves with targets in the 100s of pips, why not wait for a signal off a short TF chart? and start loading up from there.....I've always viewed setting a fixed level as arrogant, at least wait for confirmation from the PA that a level is going to be respected.....you can then load up positions with the trend.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #144
  • Jan 11, 2010 6:01am Jan 11, 2010 6:01am
Quoting Vantage

US Dollar Index: Commitment of Traders
Professionals -9.2% (short) and Oscillator +103
Big change during the last month in the Commitment of Traders report for the US Dollar. The Professionals have gone from +34% Long to -9.2% Short.
The US Dollar Oscillator also crossed the zero line, peaked at +123 in the over-bought region and has now rolled over. This week's reading is +103 (note: last bar on the chart reads +81 but last week's reading was +103).
Thanks! And that was pretty obvious from the action after NFP (not to mention the numbers themselves), adding further amazement at the shorting on that other thread. At least, let the dollar bears have their run before putting on a short.
  • #145
  • Jan 11, 2010 6:30am Jan 11, 2010 6:30am
Quoting Islander

If you are trading the longer term moves with targets in the 100s of pips, why not wait for a signal off a short TF chart? and start loading up from there.....
Exactly. The way to trade long-term is to scale up with the long-term trend, selling into peaks on shorter time frames, and then scale out on dips as long-term support is approached. And in the longer term this up move may be a peak, but it's not over yet, and who knows whether it will turn here or at 6235 or at 6273 or at 6364 or at some other level? I'd wait for some kind of confirmation.

Quote

always viewed setting a fixed level as arrogant, at least wait for confirmation from the PA that a level is going to be respected.....you can then load up positions with the trend.....

Very good point. I strongly agree. That attitude places emphasis on being clever in figuring the market out, and being omniscient enough to know where the market will turn. And it breaks a rule from Zen in The Markets that I try to adhere to:

"You can't have a clear picture of what is happening in the market if your mind is already made up. You have to trade with an open mind."
  • #146
  • Jan 11, 2010 6:57am Jan 11, 2010 6:57am
Although this thread is primarily about the European Mornings, we often also look at the US opens around the Bond Market and later the NYSE. Today I'll be here and trading.....

Cable is now starting to shown signs that it MAY now be ready to roll over....there is a building volume around the 6175 level, a LH on the 5 min at 6186 and the 30ema is flat at 6170. The US traders will confirm or not.....TWT
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #147
  • Jan 11, 2010 7:14am Jan 11, 2010 7:14am
Quoting Vantage
Quote from e mini watch email I just got.


US Dollar Index: Commitment of Traders
Professionals -9.2% (short) and Oscillator +103
Big change during the last month in the Commitment of Traders report for the US Dollar. The Professionals have gone from +34% Long to -9.2% Short.
The US Dollar Oscillator also crossed the zero line, peaked at +123 in the over-bought region and has now rolled over. This week's reading is +103 (note: last bar on the chart reads +81 but last week's reading was +103).
Thanks V.....some years ago I attended a seminar by Steve Briese, a leading exponent of the use of the COT reports in trading. Their interpetation does require some skill. Whilst I found them very helpful when looking at commodities and indices, I didnt - at that tme - find them so useful for currencies.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #148
  • Edited 7:29am Jan 11, 2010 7:28am | Edited 7:29am
The 150 ema held and produced a small bounce up to the 6175 level / 30 ema, so I took an initial smaller sized ( it was before 8am edt) sell as the 150 ema broke....

Now I need confirmation to build up to a normal sized position....preferably a small bounce into another LH.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #149
  • Jan 11, 2010 7:30am Jan 11, 2010 7:30am
Quoting Islander
The 150 ema held and produced a small bounce up to the 6175 level / 30 ema, so I took an initial smaller sized ( it was before 8am edt) sell as the 150 ema broke....

Now I need confirmation to come up to a normal sized position....preferably a small bounce into another LH.....
That's the way to go, trading with the obvious trend until a reversal has been confirmed. Would like a bit more confirmation for a turn-around upwards though. But the 6152 level looks attractive...TWT
  • #150
  • Jan 11, 2010 7:36am Jan 11, 2010 7:36am
Never looked at money flow index before. Divergence, like RSI with volume being important, will add to charts and see.

Money Flow Index (MFI) is the technical indicator, which indicates the rate at which money is invested into a security and then withdrawn from it. Construction and interpretation of the indicator is similar to Relative Strength Index with the only difference that volume is important to MFI.

When analyzing the money flow index one needs to take into consideration the following points:

  1. divergences between the indicator and price movement. If prices grow while MFI falls (or vice versa), there is a great probability of a price turn;
  2. Money Flow Index value, which is over 80 or under 20, signals correspondingly of a potential peak or bottom of the market.

  • #151
  • Jan 11, 2010 7:38am Jan 11, 2010 7:38am
Quoting Vantage
Never looked at money flow index before. Divergence, like RSI with volume being important, will add to charts and see.

Money Flow Index (MFI) is the technical indicator, which indicates the rate at which money is invested into a security and then withdrawn from it. Construction and interpretation of the indicator is similar to Relative Strength Index with the only difference that volume is important to MFI.

When analyzing the money...
Thank you. What time frame are you using it on?
  • #152
  • Jan 11, 2010 7:40am Jan 11, 2010 7:40am
Quoting medici
I don't understand the people on the G/U G/J U/J thread shorting cable now with a 100+ pip stop when the trend is up.
What part don't you understand?

The trend is up? In your eyes and your timeframe. In my eyes and in my timeframe the trend is down. When you posted that quote above, price had actually reached the top at 16194, that was the reason many were going short. Current price 1.6144 (+50), we may revisit the top, but that's a different story. Those who Shorted probably locked in at Break Even now.

As for +100 stops, what's the problem? If I traded the 1 min chart with a risk of 15 pips to achieve 45 pips, that is a ratio of 1:3. If I had a stop of 100 pips to achieve 300 pips, my risk/reward is also 1:3. Horses for courses.

The secret is to enter with a 15-50 Sl and achieve 500 pips, this also has been achieved a number of times if you check my posts last summer.

Each person to his own method, but please do not infer by saying:

"I don't understand the people on the G/U G/J U/J thread shorting cable now with a 100+ pip stop when the trend is up" that I do not know what I am doing, or others for that matter. I am not ignorant of Price Action.

If I have misinterpreted this, I apologise, but that is the way it looks to me. Shame, good thread and I was going to participate.
  • #153
  • Jan 11, 2010 7:42am Jan 11, 2010 7:42am
Quoting Islander
The 150 ema held and produced a small bounce up to the 6175 level / 30 ema, so I took an initial smaller sized ( it was before 8am edt) sell as the 150 ema broke....

Now I need confirmation to build up to a normal sized position....preferably a small bounce into another LH.....

OK, there was a 27 pip drop from my entry and price stalled, so I banked my pips and can now enter at normal size off a pull back towards the MR2 / falling 150 ema

Euro made a similar move. stalling at its MR2
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #154
  • Jan 11, 2010 7:43am Jan 11, 2010 7:43am
Quoting medici
Thank you. What time frame are you using it on?

I've literally just come across this. I use vol a lot on 15 min chart so I'll put on there and also perhaps 1hr and 5 min.

Exited sell 6178 at 6150.
  • #155
  • Jan 11, 2010 7:51am Jan 11, 2010 7:51am
Sold again as MR2 held.....

Edit: this remained as smaller size as the 150 ema was flat when the trade was taken.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #156
  • Jan 11, 2010 7:59am Jan 11, 2010 7:59am
Quoting direct-trade
What part don't you understand?

The trend is up? In your eyes and your timeframe. In my eyes and in my timeframe the trend is down. When you posted that quote above, price had actually reached the top at 16194, that was the reason many were going short. Current price 1.6144 (+50), we may revisit the top, but that's a different story. Those who Shorted probably locked in at Break Even now.

As for +100 stops, what's the problem? If I traded the 1 min chart with a risk of 15 pips to achieve 45 pips, that is a ratio of 1:3. If I had a stop of...
I do not disagree with anything of what you are saying, and maybe I am the one who should apologise for expressing myself in a way that could be taken as personal criticism or criticism of other approaches to trading or other perspectives on the market. For that I do apologise.

And I meant it literally when I said that I "don't understand" the timing of the shorts entered early this morning. So if I could learn about that or how to achieve risk-reward ratios of 10 or more I'd be grateful for that and for any contributions you may wish to make to this thread.
  • #157
  • Jan 11, 2010 8:07am Jan 11, 2010 8:07am
Quoting Islander
Sold again as MR2 held.....

Edit: this remained as smaller size as the 150 ema was flat when the trade was taken.....
Bear in mind that 6145 is 38.2% of this session and 6140 23.6% of the end of Dec up move.
  • #158
  • Jan 11, 2010 8:10am Jan 11, 2010 8:10am
First of all, I would like to thank Medici and Islander for their time and good will by creating this thread. I trade both the London and US sessions so I am sticking around for the 2 sessions.
Islander, would you post your template please? I like the way your pivots look. Or maybe just the pivot indicator itself?
Thanks again and happy trading to all....
  • #159
  • Jan 11, 2010 8:15am Jan 11, 2010 8:15am
Quoting medici
Bear in mind that 6145 is 38.2% of this session and 6140 23.6% of the end of Dec up move.

Thanks - I have just closed again and banked my pips....mid way between the NY opens with no confirmed ST trend and the pips are best in my bank....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #160
  • Jan 11, 2010 8:20am Jan 11, 2010 8:20am
Quoting okfx
First of all, I would like to thank Medici and Islander for their time and good will by creating this thread. I trade both the London and US sessions so I am sticking around for the 2 sessions.
Islander, would you post your template please? I like the way your pivots look. Or maybe just the pivot indicator itself?
Thanks again and happy trading to all....
Thanks.....regarding a template, I haven't yet saved one for either TF and as I currently have annotations and other stuff on my charts, I cant at present do so.

My settings have already been posted and if you need an indicator, just ask.

Cheers.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
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