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Islander and Medici trade the European open

  • #81
  • Jan 8, 2010 11:43am Jan 8, 2010 11:43am
Quoting medici
That's interesting. Thanks, I'll take a look at that. Today was a classic fade. Half an hour of buying up to strong levels, 6110 and 4410, and then reverse.

Have a good weekend (in spite of your horrible weather...) and see you Monday.
Thanks - and I must bone up on the use of "other levels".....I keep my 15 min charts naked, but keep forgetting to add the appropriate S&R levels....

Cheers
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #82
  • Jan 8, 2010 4:21pm Jan 8, 2010 4:21pm
Hi Medici,

Thanks for your thoughts, interesting that both you and Islander are successful yet you use different techniques.

More than one way to do this, hope for me yet !!
Money grows on the tree of persistence
  • #83
  • Jan 9, 2010 3:34am Jan 9, 2010 3:34am
Hi guys
Had a day off on Fri but looking forward to joining you on Monday.
Cheers V.
  • #84
  • Edited 4:34pm Jan 10, 2010 7:41am | Edited 4:34pm
For those interested in evidence in support of the basis of this thread, attached you can find an academic research paper by Carol Olser and collaborator on the reasons for the extreme moves in the fx market.

In brief, the finding is that there is clustering of sometimes very large orders at certain times and certain price levels, and that the execution of those orders often lead to strong trends.

More specifically, the London morning is singled out as the prime time for these clusterings to happen. And what we are looking for is to identify those times and levels and then ride the flow.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Osler Savaser 2008.pdf   261 KB | 849 downloads
  • #85
  • Edited 1:01pm Jan 10, 2010 7:46am | Edited 1:01pm
For target setting and business planning, here's a histogram of the 6-9am ranges in cable over three years, from 25/10/06 to 23/11/09.

The average range is 80 pips, and the median range is 70 pips. 80% of the mornings, the range was 45 pips or more.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable morning ranges.jpg Size: 110 KB
  • #86
  • Jan 10, 2010 7:54am Jan 10, 2010 7:54am
Islander's contributions has reawakened my interest in trading moving averages on 1min charts. Thank you!

Yesterday I re-read the section How to Trade Price Action in Agustin Silvani's book Beat the Forex Dealer. Silvani uses 30 and 60 period SMAs on a one minute chart. In his own words:

"...the MAs can be used as dynamic support/resistance levels to trade off with much better results than the stop-happy static levels known to the whole market."

Here's a good article on trading MAs on 1min charts with some attention paid to trading rules: http://www.financial-spread-betting....ng-method.html
  • #87
  • Jan 10, 2010 8:06am Jan 10, 2010 8:06am
Here's an example of using MAs on a 1min chart to trade the Euro post-NFP. The MAs are 10, 30, and 60 period WMAs. More than 150 pips in a few hours without sticking your neck out trying to pick tops or bottoms.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro post nfp 8jan.jpg Size: 151 KB
  • #88
  • Jan 10, 2010 8:31am Jan 10, 2010 8:31am
Following the surprisingly weak employment data, possible targets for the next few days:

Cable could revisit be the good old 1.6272 level - 38.2% of the early July range, and about 50% of the December drop.

Euro could revisit the 1.4620 area (61.8% of the 2008 drop) and maybe even 1.4680 (50% of the December drop), but watch out for barrier option protection at 1.45.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable daily 10 jan.jpg Size: 239 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euro daily 10 jan.jpg Size: 221 KB
  • #89
  • Jan 10, 2010 8:36am Jan 10, 2010 8:36am
Hi Islander and Medici,

Excellent thread, looking forward to more of your posts and analysis
  • #90
  • Jan 11, 2010 12:18am Jan 11, 2010 12:18am
GM all. The key level 6081 (38.2% of end of end of Dec up move), pivot/'line in the sand' overnight, held first test.
  • #91
  • Jan 11, 2010 12:50am Jan 11, 2010 12:50am
Long from 6073, but cautious for now.
  • #92
  • Jan 11, 2010 1:14am Jan 11, 2010 1:14am
Quoting medici
GM all. The key level 6081 (38.2% of end of end of Dec up move), pivot/'line in the sand' overnight, held first test.
GM - and thanks for some interesting posts over the W/E....especially those on the 1 min TF http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

So far this morning, the Euro has broken out above Fridays high and next has resistance at its R2 of 4547 and then an Hourly 38% retrace at 1.4572

Cable has so far held under Fridays high, which was at its Hrly Fib 61% retrace, thus putting in a Lower High. Its R1 is at 6118.

Swissy, like € has broken Fridays low and made new lows and has now ~bounced off its hrly fib 61.8% at 1.0142


Whilst cable has made LHs, it also has support at its MR1 level of 6067 and it now has a 5 min Higher Low....mmm - that was a possible buy

Also, my 3 brokers all show an unfilled gap in cable down to the 6025 area and whilst I am suspicious of gaps in forex as they are due to brokers individual openings, others may take more notice...
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #93
  • Jan 11, 2010 1:25am Jan 11, 2010 1:25am
Quoting Islander
GM - and thanks for some interesting posts over the W/E....especially those on the 1 min TF http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
You're welcome, and thank you again for your posts on the same topic.

Quote

Whilst cable has made LHs, it also has support at its MR1 level of 6067 and it now has a 5 min Higher Low....mmm - that was a possible buy

The 5min doji after two big rounds of buying at the same level was a sitting duck.

Quote

Also, my 3 brokers all show an unfilled gap in cable down to the 6025 area and whilst I am suspicious of gaps in forex as they are due to brokers individual openings, others may take more notice...

Don't know what brokers you use, but cable opened at the 6081 level in early interbank trade and then went down to find support at 6043, the last high before the close Friday. I consider that closing of the gap.
  • #94
  • Jan 11, 2010 1:29am Jan 11, 2010 1:29am
Quoting medici
Long from 6073, but cautious for now.
Nice entry - HL followed by breaks of the 1 min EMAs.

This week I intend to trade with more discipline and in line with my 1 min EMAs....they allowed a buy at 6078....

Edit; and at the high just reached, show a short term overbought condition, BUT I'd also like to see this near "a level"....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #95
  • Jan 11, 2010 1:31am Jan 11, 2010 1:31am
Good morning V, I was expecting to see you soon http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #96
  • Jan 11, 2010 1:36am Jan 11, 2010 1:36am
Quoting Islander
Nice entry - HL followed by breaks of the 1 min EMAs.
Thanks. 100% in line with my rules of watching price action at key levels at key times. Out when 6035 gave resistance. Now looking for possible re-entry.

Quote

This week I intend to trade with more discipline and in line with my 1 min EMAs....they allowed a buy at 6078....

I need a dose of such discipline too after last week's mess...
  • #97
  • Jan 11, 2010 1:37am Jan 11, 2010 1:37am
Quoting Islander
Good morning V, I was expecting to see you soon http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Hi Islander
Good to be here, hope to learn from you guys as usual.

Medici I didn't have a 5 min doji on fxpro charts, thought that buy was inspired!!
  • #98
  • Jan 11, 2010 1:48am Jan 11, 2010 1:48am
Quoting medici
Thanks. 100% in line with my rules of watching price action at key levels at key times. Out when 6035 gave resistance. Now looking for possible re-entry.



I need a dose of such discipline too after last week's mess...

First class trading http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif what a start to the week!.....the 035 levels are the other of cable's "special levels" that I watch http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #99
  • Jan 11, 2010 1:59am Jan 11, 2010 1:59am
Hi bob inabottle - I know that you are a fan of Lever70......a couple of years ago we traded together live ....he'll also remember about the 35 and 85 levels in cable.....good to see you here...
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #100
  • Jan 11, 2010 2:01am Jan 11, 2010 2:01am
HI and welcome to orientos too....
Trading Levels with WRBs
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