DeMark TDF Trading

GBPUSD

As posted earlier, I placed my sell positions stop to BE prior to the news release which proved to be a good move. Additionally, just before the news I entered long again on the back of the first bullish thrust after the TD buy setup on the 15 minute chart. Although not quite to the rules I knew I had to get in before 13:30GMT as price could move to quick so I just trusted the signal.

As I wrote in my post prior to the news release, the writing was on the (TD) wall for the price to head higher with the removal to a close of the 30 minute and 1 hour TDST resistance levels, and the failure to make a TD Sell setup (Upward Exhaustion) on the 1 hour and 30 minute just confirmed this further, I hope my advice has helped people today figure out how good my TDF method can be. Although a straight forward method in terms of entry, my posting today should show everyone that it does still require a lot analysis and decision making on the part of the trader but once you get used to doing the analysis is should come naturally quite quickly.



Cheers
Foggytrader

Good Morning Foggy,

It appears to me that you do most of your analysis when London opens, obviously. Is that the timing that you generally use? Do you look at the New York open too? I am just trying to see what my timing could be living in Denver, Colorado. Thanks, your info is very good and great for studying.

Also with the BAT indicator, do you primarily use it on the daily chart or do you look at lower time frames as well?

DJ

Hello DJ,

I live in the UK so trade from around 06:30am - 22:00pm GMT, so I usually only catch the signals that occur during that timeframe. There is no real rule on when the signals will occur or when you should or shouldn't take them, signals are equally as good in each session. When trading DeMark you must firstly understand the meaning of the signals then interprut their significance on each timeframe to know when to enter. I recommend to anyone interested in using DeMark as a method of trading to get Jason Pearls book which provides a great description of all things concerned with DeMark.

I used to trade the BAT indicator on a 5 minute chart with questionable results so decided the stress was just not worth it. The indicator can be used on any timeframe but I prefer to use it for long term analysis now. If you apply it to any long-term chart, its ability to identify when either the bulls or the bears are in control is staggering and personally, if I had a large enough account would take positions purly based on my BAT method on the weekly and daily timeframes. However, as I am still a small fish in a big pond I prefer to look at lower timeframes for entry which is where I find DeMark to be very suitable. If you buy the book you will see there are numerous different methods associated with DeMark but as of yet I prefer to keep it simple and trade the TD setups and TDST bounces.

So in terms of your questions, there really isn't any specific time zone that is better than the other nor is the open of any session significant to the TDF method. Regarding the BAT, like I say, it can work on lower timeframes but you need to firstly figure out the settings then stick to your timeframe, how profitable it can be depends on whether you have the balls to keep going when you get those loosing runs, which is where I left it on the 5 minute.

Hope that helps,

Cheers
Foggytrader

Just to let people know I actually purchased the books on DeMark's indicators and they are well worth the money. It gives a great theoretical look at everything that happens live in the markets and then makes it easy implement. Foggy has a great understanding of how DeMark works in the live markets, the books plus him are a great tool.

I will tell you my trading has gotten significantly better since I have started to study the books. I'm doing the DeMark on Demo till I can see that I have it down and have a much better understanding of the rhythm of it. It has alos been a great tool me to help find my ways into the higher TF trends while reducing my risk.

good luck and I hope in about a month to have even better grasp of this system and start to show more of what I am doing.

Take care and Happy pips,

Simple

GBPUSD

Just a final update on this pair before we close for the week. After an initial post-NFP spike price fell off somewhat but my stop held so I am still in with two positions. There was actually a nice TDF Buy setup later in the afternoon on the 15 minute chart with 25 pips risk but with it being Friday and I had a few things to do and took my eye off the ball so missed it, hope some of you caught this one.

Have a nice weekend.



Cheers
Foggytrader

foggytrader,

great illustrations on how the TDF works on a day that I dont usually trade due to the unusual volatility but it gave grat signals with minimised risks. Im looking forward to more discussions on this system. Im still unsure how you determine how you exit, lets suppose you are long would you wait for TD Count and exit at the formation of bearihs thrust?

Good question FXSnipe,

In similar fashion to the TDST method from my last thread the TDF setups provide the trader with two simple exit options:

TDF Buy Setup:
1. Closest TDST resistance level
2. Trail the stop along the Low of subsequent TD Sell Setups 9th bar



TDF Sell Setup:
1. Closest TDST support level
2. Trail the stop along the High of subsequent TD Buy Setups 9th bar



Although the recommended exit options, the two simple methods explained above can be mixed up and are not restricted to one timeframe. For example, if the trader takes a TDF buy setup on a 15 minute chart on the same day as we have a TD buy setup on the daily chart the trader could exit half the position using one of the two above methods on the 15 minute chart and hold the remainder of the position to use one of the above methods on the daily chart for bigger reward.

Additionally, the trader can mix things up on the same timeframe as I have illustated in the picture below. The trader could exit half the position at the closest TDST support then exit the remainder of the position by trailing the stop at the high of the 9th bar of subsequent TD Buy setup.



As you can see the actual exit methods are straight forward but it is up to the trader to do the analysis and decide whether there is potential to get more from the trade than the entry timeframe provides.

Cheers
Foggytrader

Hi all,

i would like to ask for a help, attaching screenshot. Why that numbers are in such big distance from price ? Should someone help me ? Thank you very much

I used Foggy's suggestion here and put the number at 1 or 2 and then compiled

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...rk#post3342826

use post # 513

Thanks for illustrating it for me, very clear and straight forward. I have something to work on, exiting half the position at TDST and , exiting the rest at the 9th bar seems to be a very good strategy

thank you very much

GBPUSD

Please ignore the close above TDST resistance, I appear to be having data issues so there shouldn't be a TDST resistance level there.

The signals that appeared from Thursday through to Friday last week appear to be following through into the UK session today. However, we are currently on the 9th bar of a TD Sell setup on the 4 hour chart subsequently I will trail some more of my long positions at the low of the 9th bar upon completion. Additionally, I will take some profits at the TDST resistance level of 1.6190 should we get there.

There are two straight forward formations the trader should be aware of at this point:

1. We complete a TD Sell setup and fail at the TDST resistance level of 1.6190 and make a bearish thrust bar (Perfect TDF Setup).



2. We complete the TD Sell setup but remove the TDST resistance level of 1.6190 to a close (Trend Continuation).



I will keep you posted

Cheers
Foggytrader

GBPUSD

Although the last posts data was corrupt, the analysis is still correct should anyone wish to take note. The picture below now shows the correct situation here. The bulls actually removed the last TDST resistance level some time ago and with the retracement finding support near the initial low the price action is now pointing towards a breakout of the last significant high at 1.6238. However, the fact that we are on the verge of completing a TD Sell setup cannot be ignored and subsequently we should be looking for a bearish thrust formation to complete the TDF Sell setup.



I will keep you posted on any further developments.

Cheers
Foggytrader

GBPUSD

As the bulls are exhausted on this current run according to the TD analysis on the 4 hour chart, the trader has two main options:

1. The more aggressive trader could now look for short TDF formations on lower timeframes, but I would advise tight stops, close targets and low risk with this strategy.

2. The less aggressive trader could wait for confirmation of the signal by waiting until we get a bearish thrust on the 4 hour chart to confirm the TDF sell setup before looking for TDF sell setups on lower timeframes.

I will keep you posted if I make any decisions personally.

Cheers
Foggytrader

GBPUSD

We have a pending TD Sell setup on the 15 minute chart so the more agressive traders could take a short position on the close of the next thrust bar after the TD Sell setup is complete.



Cheers
Foggytrader

USDCAD

As you can see from the daily chart below, this pair has respected recent tests of TDST levels although all have been on the bear side. Nevertheless, as you can see we are once again testing a significant TDST support level while we are about to complete a 4 hour TD Buy setup. Again, aggressive traders could start to look for for opportunities to go long with TDF setups on shorter timeframes or the less aggressive traders can wait for confitrmation of the 4 hour TDF buy setup through the formation of a bullish thrust bar.

Update: There has been a TD Buy setup on the 1 hour chart and the opportunity for entry is still available.







I will keep you posted on any further developments.

Cheers
Foggytrader

GBPUSD

As I am already long here I am taking the more aggressive option here and taking the TDF sell setup on the 15 minute timeframe. As I noted earlier, I would keep a tight stopped and close target with this entry incase the uptrend continues unitl we get further signs of exhaustion on higher timeframes like 30 minute and 1 hour.



Cheers
Foggytrader

USDCAD

I noted earlier of the potential for this pair to find support here and with the TD buy setup appearing on the hourly and 4 hour charts I have taken a long position based on the completion of a TDF buy setup on the hourly. There is a lot of news out for the Canadian dollar today so that could shake things up a little, we will see.



Cheers
Foggytrader

USDCAD

What little bulls are left in this market appear to be defending the daily TDST support level at present. As you can see in the pictures below, the 4 hour TD Buy setup actually failed to complete as the market moved higher prior to the close. However, as noted earlier, the 1 hour did complete a full TDF buy setup at which point I took some long positions. I will exit 0.5% of my position at the 1.0363 level and move the remainder of the position to BE. I will hold the stop on this one until this level is reached as the probabilities are with the bull for the short-term.







Cheers
Foggytrader

GBPUSD

We completed a 4 hour TD sell setup at 11:00am GMT at which point I was looking for opportunities to open some short positions in anticipation of a pull back. As I posted earlier, we got a 15 minute TDF sell setup which was taken. Since then we have also had a nice 15 minute TDF buy setup which went against the 4 hour bias but did include a bounce from the TDST support so the strength of the signal couldn't be ignored and was taken. Currently I have decided to move my long trades stop to BE while I will hold my stoploss level on the short positions following the 4 hour TD sell setup which points to a correction of sorts. Time will only tell, and I will keep you updated.



Cheers
Foggytrader