GbpUsd 5 min breakout | Page 21 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

London Open Breakout Strategy for GBPUSD 18 replies

GBPUSD Breakout Trading System 18 replies

15 min indicator on 5 min chart 3 replies

Backtesting w/ 1 min tick gap 0 replies

5 min forex with Oanda 11 replies

Attachments: GbpUsd 5 min breakout
Exit Attachments

GbpUsd 5 min breakout

  • #401
  • Edited 8:49am Jan 7, 2010 8:47am | Edited 8:49am
I would like the ea to decide how much to trade according to a specific set of rules which will include:

Box size(including buffers)
BR
a varying % of BR(in the form of 0.05 for 5%)

The formula maybe

(BR*(% of BR))/box size = pip value

once you have pip value, then decide how many lots to trade so that the traded pip vaue NEVER exceeds the calculated pip value.

I would like the '% of BR' to be manually changeable.


Does any of this make sense to you?
  • #402
  • Jan 7, 2010 5:25pm Jan 7, 2010 5:25pm
Hi All,
I am using a GU breakout method already and this thread attracted my interest. Signing in....

Kostas

P.S. My box also puts orders at 7:15 GMT but goes back 6 hrs. So I will check this one with interest.
  • #403
  • Jan 7, 2010 11:36pm Jan 7, 2010 11:36pm
this system, even profitable for now, will definitely:

1. meet a row of losers, so many losers that a trader will lose faith;

2. experience a period (maybe endless) that it no longer earns. this period may comes much earlier than you expected.

to overcome these issues:

1. filter is needed. Too wide or too narrow box, don't trade. just an example.

2. longer backtest, at least 1 or 2 years, man.
  • #404
  • Jan 8, 2010 1:19am Jan 8, 2010 1:19am
Quoting charvo
this system, even profitable for now, will definitely:

1. meet a row of losers, so many losers that a trader will lose faith;

2. experience a period (maybe endless) that it no longer earns. this period may comes much earlier than you expected.

to overcome these issues:

1. filter is needed. Too wide or too narrow box, don't trade. just an example.

2. longer backtest, at least 1 or 2 years, man.
nice to see a ball of hope

no trade today NFP like to hold onto my money
  • #405
  • Jan 8, 2010 1:43am Jan 8, 2010 1:43am
Quoting charvo
this system, even profitable for now, will definitely:

1. meet a row of losers, so many losers that a trader will lose faith;

2. experience a period (maybe endless) that it no longer earns. this period may comes much earlier than you expected.

to overcome these issues:

1. filter is needed. Too wide or too narrow box, don't trade. just an example.

2. longer backtest, at least 1 or 2 years, man.
Well said Charvo...I couldn't agree more with you..I have mentioned this point many times in this thread but there doesn't seem to be much interest in discussing it...I think it would probably be much better if this thread could be moved into the trading systems section as there would be more viewers there.. Maybe Cain could request this from the mods...??? I currently apply a few of my own rules to this method but I've only been trading live since the start of this week so its too early to know how it will work out.......
  • #406
  • Jan 8, 2010 2:24am Jan 8, 2010 2:24am
Winner, winner...chicken dinner!
  • #407
  • Jan 8, 2010 2:35am Jan 8, 2010 2:35am
Nice quick trade today guys.
  • #408
  • Jan 8, 2010 3:58am Jan 8, 2010 3:58am
Quoting fxblinkers
Well said Charvo...I couldn't agree more with you..I have mentioned this point many times in this thread but there doesn't seem to be much interest in discussing it...I think it would probably be much better if this thread could be moved into the trading systems section as there would be more viewers there.. Maybe Cain could request this from the mods...??? I currently apply a few of my own rules to this method but I've only been trading live since the start of this week so its too early to know how it will work out.......

Fxblinkers,

I'm interested in your tweaks for this system. I also think that this system will see losing periods and that some sort of filters are needed. I currently watch the size of the box, trading only when it is not too small or large. I think this is common sense, when it comes to breakout systems like this. I have also checked the closing of the first candle after the box (7.15 candle). What have you experienced?

Regards

Archie
  • #409
  • Jan 8, 2010 4:28am Jan 8, 2010 4:28am
Quoting Archie
Fxblinkers,

I'm interested in your tweaks for this system. I also think that this system will see losing periods and that some sort of filters are needed. I currently watch the size of the box, trading only when it is not too small or large. I think this is common sense, when it comes to breakout systems like this. I have also checked the closing of the first candle after the box (7.15 candle). What have you experienced?

Regards

Archie
Hi Archie,

Yeah I agree about the box size as if we are calling this a breakout system and the box size is lets say 60 pips then the breakout will have already happened...however, in some testing that I have done (only manually/visually on MT4) I have taken into account all bow sizes less than 80 pips just to see does it still work. I also will only enter when its clear that the candle will close outside the box. I also apply this to my stoploss as I monitor my trade and don't actually have a SL in place and I will just close the trade manually myself after the opposite side of the box has been broken and I am confidant that the 5 min candle will close outside it.. It a bit of a pain having to watch PA until I close out but very often its only for an hour or two in the morning.. I have also found that if we double our lot size even after a winning trade we can manage to improve performance by an extra 1.5% per month approx... I have tested this from Feb 09 to Dec 09 and found that a 5K account could have grown to a 18K account during that period risking 3% per trade/day..nevertheless, I'm sure there are a few improvements we can make but unfortunately I'm probably not experienced enough to figure it out especially as my manual back testing takes me so long... One thing I am sure of though is that if you wait for a candle close before entry it will keep you out of a lot of false breakouts.... Have you done much backtesting?????
  • #410
  • Jan 8, 2010 2:09pm Jan 8, 2010 2:09pm
Quoting fxblinkers
Hi Archie,

Yeah I agree about the box size as if we are calling this a breakout system and the box size is lets say 60 pips then the breakout will have already happened...however, in some testing that I have done (only manually/visually on MT4) I have taken into account all bow sizes less than 80 pips just to see does it still work. I also will only enter when its clear that the candle will close outside the box. I also apply this to my stoploss as I monitor my trade and don't actually have a SL in place and I will just close the trade manually...

Fxblinkers,

I have only backtested the last months of the last year, but I will continue testing. As of now, I am forward testing differences between using TP/SL based on range+buffer or based on range only. I have seen that a TP based on range will reach its target more often, but it's too soon to tell if it's more profitable. I am also testing breakouts at London open (8 GMT), but this also needs more testing.

I have only tested visually, but I will start testing on demo as well, and a small live account later on. I always prefer testing with low lot sizes on live accounts, since this is closer to the truth.


Regards

Archie
  • #411
  • Edited 1:37pm Jan 9, 2010 1:29pm | Edited 1:37pm
@ Fxblinkers

Do you think this system could work with binary options?

Obviously we would have to be able to start the trade very early on in the BO so we would have chance to hit the big pips(not sure if its possible but the BO market opens at 8 am .....I think). I'm thinking that we would be exiting before the BO 'at the money' but at a possibly VERY GOOD profit.

I haven't tried BO as yet but it looks like it might have potential.

What do you think?

EDIT, oops.......BO = Binary Options......NOT Breakout !!!!!!!!
  • #412
  • Jan 9, 2010 1:38pm Jan 9, 2010 1:38pm
Whatever happened to Cain?
  • #413
  • Jan 9, 2010 1:45pm Jan 9, 2010 1:45pm
We haven't heard from him for some time now.

Maybe he's just raking the money in
  • #414
  • Jan 10, 2010 4:47pm Jan 10, 2010 4:47pm
Quoting Intel
@ Fxblinkers

Do you think this system could work with binary options?

Obviously we would have to be able to start the trade very early on in the BO so we would have chance to hit the big pips(not sure if its possible but the BO market opens at 8 am .....I think). I'm thinking that we would be exiting before the BO 'at the money' but at a possibly VERY GOOD profit.

I haven't tried BO as yet but it looks like it might have potential.

What do you think?

EDIT, oops.......BO = Binary Options......NOT Breakout !!!!!!!!
Hi Intel,

Yeah I think there may be a good way to trade this with Binary but I'm not overly familar with trading binary..however, I did some research a few months back in relation to trading hourly binary adjusting the stake each time but only when certain conditions are met as in order to win the trade you would only need to predict whether the next candle was red or green... I will give some thought to trading this method using binary and come back to you on it...what time frames and approach are you thinking about????
  • #415
  • Jan 10, 2010 5:47pm Jan 10, 2010 5:47pm
Hi Guys,

I've just been thinking about MM for trading this breakout and would like your opinions...

If the box size is 50 pips and we follow Cains guidelines and double the lot size after a losing 1st trade then this means that our max loss for that day would be 150 pips. So for example on a 10K account and risking 3% a day this would mean 300/150 = 2 euro a pip. However if we were not to double the lot size after the first part of the trade loses then out max loss for the day is 100 pips..hence 300/100 = 3 euro per pip..I know it means that we would have more break even days but when we lose we would lose less in relation to R/R because when we win we would win more. I haven't back tested this yet but just thought I'd throw it out there in case anyone has studied this kind of MM...
  • #416
  • Jan 10, 2010 11:45pm Jan 10, 2010 11:45pm
Quoting fxblinkers
Hi Guys,

I've just been thinking about MM for trading this breakout and would like your opinions...

If the box size is 50 pips and we follow Cains guidelines and double the lot size after a losing 1st trade then this means that our max loss for that day would be 150 pips. So for example on a 10K account and risking 3% a day this would mean 300/150 = 2 euro a pip. However if we were not to double the lot size after the first part of the trade loses then out max loss for the day is 100 pips..hence 300/100 = 3 euro per pip..I know it means that...
It's good to think of how we might enhance the profitability of this strategy. And it's easy to backtest your assumption. But...over the course of the past 50 trading sessions, the 2nd trade has a much higher % of wins than does the 1st trade. If you eliminate the doubling-up of the 2nd trade following a 1st trade loss, you are eliminating the most compelling aspect of this strategy IMHO.
  • #417
  • Jan 11, 2010 2:59am Jan 11, 2010 2:59am
Quoting Bobcat2
It's good to think of how we might enhance the profitability of this strategy. And it's easy to backtest your assumption. But...over the course of the past 50 trading sessions, the 2nd trade has a much higher % of wins than does the 1st trade. If you eliminate the doubling-up of the 2nd trade following a 1st trade loss, you are eliminating the most compelling aspect of this strategy IMHO.
I agree with you to an extent BobCat..however, looking at results from Feb last year to Xmas paints a completely different picture... Nov and Dec not usual results for this method of trading..in fact if anything they were unusual results...if only every month could be like these ones we all be laughing all the way to the bank........................
  • #418
  • Jan 11, 2010 3:54am Jan 11, 2010 3:54am
Hi guys,
as mentioned earlier by several members, i started to use some filters, just to confirm which way should i place my orders. i am also placing only one order (long if filters says uptrend and short if filters says downtrend).
i am using the 3 Ducks and a TRO tunnel as filters!
anyone using the same and any back testing on theses filters for this strategy?
i am trying to compare the results of this strategy with and without the filters, maybe we can cut the false breakout

Happy Pips all
IceBerg
  • #419
  • Jan 11, 2010 8:17am Jan 11, 2010 8:17am
Quoting fxblinkers
I agree with you to an extent BobCat..however, looking at results from Feb last year to Xmas paints a completely different picture... Nov and Dec not usual results for this method of trading..in fact if anything they were unusual results...if only every month could be like these ones we all be laughing all the way to the bank........................
fxb,

I'm glad you are using trading data to support your hypothesis. Personally...I am not a fan of back-testing too far...4x market conditions are simply too prone to change, thus rendering earlier data almost useless. I like to build up enough trade data to build a probability case, and then make necessary adjustments to the prevailing base startegy as needed. For me, two months of trade data works well much of the time.

Which brings me to ask...did you carefully adjust your selected time frame data to coincide with the changes in daylight savings time for both the USA and London time zones? If you wren't absolutely accurate with this...your data is flawed.

Good trading my friend!
  • #420
  • Jan 11, 2010 11:13am Jan 11, 2010 11:13am
Another good trade today..I managed to get 58 pips on the London B/O and another 30 on the N/Y..happy days...

BobCat, No I didn't adjust the Daylight saving for back test and you're quite right that my data is most probably flawed..I'm not much good at backteating to be honest so I just working from the data I can manage to get..however, there has to be some merit in the data I have collected even if it just gives me an idea of probability over the year at these times...it seemed to produce reasonable results without changing the times but of course I am hoping to have this very well tested in the coming month or so... It's the double losing trade that the profit killer and I also trying to figure out a better way to exit without compromising the method...my head is almost melted to be honest...anyway good luck with your trading.........
0 traders viewing now