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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
- #211,541
- Jan 9, 2010 8:31am Jan 9, 2010 8:31am
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: bye FF | 8,806 Posts
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
- #211,542
- Jan 9, 2010 9:28am Jan 9, 2010 9:28am
- | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Trader | 1,666 Posts
The PA is still trending downward.
I can't wait for the FREEFALL to 1.48-1.50 support zone and LTL on the weekly chart
gj might be heading to 153 or something but its going to find that very difficult if gu is dropping like a rock. im looking to ditch my gj long, which is in a bad place at 148.94 so im hoping for a spike up there first, then go short gu instead.
- #211,543
- Jan 9, 2010 9:32am Jan 9, 2010 9:32am
- Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts
Selling all rallies for GU!!!
GJ might head to 153 if the UJ rallies again before dropping..
Wait and see..
GJ might head to 153 if the UJ rallies again before dropping..
Wait and see..
maybe next week gu goes into freefall. uk might get downgraded or something to kick it off. seems like anything above 6000 is a decent place to short.
gj might be heading to 153 or something but its going to find that very difficult if gu is dropping like a rock. im looking to ditch my gj long, which is in a bad place at 148.94 so im hoping for a spike up there first, then go short gu instead.
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- #211,544
- Jan 9, 2010 9:35am Jan 9, 2010 9:35am
- | Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Freshman Fledgling Neophyte | 1,663 Posts
- #211,546
- Edited 11:51am Jan 9, 2010 10:06am | Edited 11:51am
- Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts
If you have enough margin for the drawdown, than I would hold out and hope the 4hr LTL holds(147 support zone)
I am confident that sunday may have a gap to the 147 support before a reversal off the LTL on the 4hr chart..
TA: the third to last candle engulf the bullish candle by two candles length.( strong bear)
The first candle is bullish. The second candle is bearish. The bearish candle engulfs the previous candle's body. The size of the candle being engulfed doesn't matter. Ignore the wicks. An even stronger signal occurs when the bearish candle engulfs the bodies of two or three previous candles. Indicates a bearish trend may be beginning.
If the 147 holds, than " Consolidation maybe what will happen this week"
IMHO
Trade the charts.
The NFP news was just a way to scare the longs and I would buy on the dips since the 4hr and daily zig zag is still intact in a bullish direction..
I am confident that sunday may have a gap to the 147 support before a reversal off the LTL on the 4hr chart..
TA: the third to last candle engulf the bullish candle by two candles length.( strong bear)
The first candle is bullish. The second candle is bearish. The bearish candle engulfs the previous candle's body. The size of the candle being engulfed doesn't matter. Ignore the wicks. An even stronger signal occurs when the bearish candle engulfs the bodies of two or three previous candles. Indicates a bearish trend may be beginning.
If the 147 holds, than " Consolidation maybe what will happen this week"
IMHO
Trade the charts.
The NFP news was just a way to scare the longs and I would buy on the dips since the 4hr and daily zig zag is still intact in a bullish direction..
problem is im screwed if my gj drops below 148 so i cant afford to wait, it needs to go straight up off this 148.35 support area....
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- #211,547
- Jan 9, 2010 10:26am Jan 9, 2010 10:26am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,719 Posts
good to see senior members back to work 
wb rgitt and quecee.
there is nothing left for me to do in terms of analysis. but i wanted to explain my trading strategy for next week - i hope this would be helpful for people trying to connect analysis to real trading.
keeping in mind that major trend is still DOWN (but i am talking about monthly!) and that last resistance is @ 163 area, let's focus on lower trends.
intermediate trend is bullish and i believe last support is @ 145.40/144.85; normally, i would tend to focus on 147.35/146.25 because that's where last month's most intense activity was BUT if we look carefully i think 145 area can still be considered inside the ascending trend channel.
short term trend is bearish and i would focus on 2 things: immediate resistance, which is currently @ 148.80 area; and intermediate trend support @ 147.40/146.25.
what this means in terms of setting trades is:
1. SHORT with stops above 149.50 and tp @ 147.40/146.25;
- if 149.50 is taken, think about LONG with tp @ 151.60/152.50;
2. LONG @ 147.35 area, with a tight SL; if 147.35 is taken, LONG AGAIN @ 146.25, with a tight SL (30 pips is probably enough); even if your both stops are taken, you shouldn't get more than 100 pips loss.
- if 145.97 (last week's low) is taken, then most probably we'll see 144.80 area; no more longs until
3. AT ALL TIMES, WATCH WHERE SHORT TERM RESISTANCE IS MOVING! WHEN THIS RESISTANCE IS BROKEN, IT WILL BE YOUR MOST IMPORTANT SIGNAL TO JUMP ON LONGS! for now, immediate resistance sits @ 148.80/149.25 area; it will go lower next week, for sure.
that's it for now. enjoy your weekend.
wb rgitt and quecee.
there is nothing left for me to do in terms of analysis. but i wanted to explain my trading strategy for next week - i hope this would be helpful for people trying to connect analysis to real trading
.keeping in mind that major trend is still DOWN (but i am talking about monthly!) and that last resistance is @ 163 area, let's focus on lower trends.
intermediate trend is bullish and i believe last support is @ 145.40/144.85; normally, i would tend to focus on 147.35/146.25 because that's where last month's most intense activity was BUT if we look carefully i think 145 area can still be considered inside the ascending trend channel.
short term trend is bearish and i would focus on 2 things: immediate resistance, which is currently @ 148.80 area; and intermediate trend support @ 147.40/146.25.
what this means in terms of setting trades is:
1. SHORT with stops above 149.50 and tp @ 147.40/146.25;
- if 149.50 is taken, think about LONG with tp @ 151.60/152.50;
2. LONG @ 147.35 area, with a tight SL; if 147.35 is taken, LONG AGAIN @ 146.25, with a tight SL (30 pips is probably enough); even if your both stops are taken, you shouldn't get more than 100 pips loss.
- if 145.97 (last week's low) is taken, then most probably we'll see 144.80 area; no more longs until
3. AT ALL TIMES, WATCH WHERE SHORT TERM RESISTANCE IS MOVING! WHEN THIS RESISTANCE IS BROKEN, IT WILL BE YOUR MOST IMPORTANT SIGNAL TO JUMP ON LONGS! for now, immediate resistance sits @ 148.80/149.25 area; it will go lower next week, for sure.
that's it for now. enjoy your weekend
.
Nihil Sine Deo.
- #211,548
- Jan 9, 2010 10:31am Jan 9, 2010 10:31am
- Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts
Thanks Scrat...
Welcome Back...
It great to be back and share opinions...
Keep up the good TA!!!
Waiting for some major correction this year or this month..
Welcome Back...
It great to be back and share opinions...
Keep up the good TA!!!
Waiting for some major correction this year or this month..
good to see senior members back to work
wb rgitt and quecee.
there is nothing left for me to do in terms of analysis. but i wanted to explain my trading strategy for next week - i hope this would be helpful for people trying to connect analysis to real trading
keeping in mind that major trend is still DOWN (but i am talking about monthly!) and that last resistance is @ 163 area, let's focus on lower trends.
intermediate trend is bullish and i believe last support is @ 145.40/144.85; normally, i would tend to focus on 147.35/146.25...
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- #211,549
- Jan 9, 2010 10:38am Jan 9, 2010 10:38am
- Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts
Based on my weekly chart, the PA been slowly trending upward along the weekly LTL.
I see PA heading to the 153.00 zone again to test the resistance and 55EMA.
Fundamentals are still bearish and unemployment is still over 10%
Gold and oil is slowly trending upward...
If the 153.00 zone breaks than the last stop will hopefully be the last year high 163.00 strong resistance zone before the FREEFALL.
IMHO
I see PA heading to the 153.00 zone again to test the resistance and 55EMA.
Fundamentals are still bearish and unemployment is still over 10%
Gold and oil is slowly trending upward...
If the 153.00 zone breaks than the last stop will hopefully be the last year high 163.00 strong resistance zone before the FREEFALL.
IMHO
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- #211,550
- Jan 9, 2010 10:57am Jan 9, 2010 10:57am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,719 Posts
theoretically, yes, if we break 153 then 163 should be next and the last important level for a long term bearish view.
but if we consider that long term trend is down, we may not go to 163 - in a downtrend, testing supports is more likely than testing resistances. so, although i have a pending short @ 163 - just in case - i will patiently wait for support breaks.
but if we consider that long term trend is down, we may not go to 163 - in a downtrend, testing supports is more likely than testing resistances. so, although i have a pending short @ 163 - just in case - i will patiently wait for support breaks.
Based on my weekly chart, the PA been slowly trending upward along the weekly LTL.
I see PA heading to the 153.00 zone again to test the resistance and 55EMA.
Fundamentals are still bearish and unemployment is still over 10%
Gold and oil is slowly trending upward...
If the 153.00 zone breaks than the last stop will hopefully be the last year high 163.00 strong resistance zone before the FREEFALL.
IMHO
Nihil Sine Deo.
- #211,551
- Jan 9, 2010 10:58am Jan 9, 2010 10:58am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,719 Posts
thanks
i am waiting for some serious pips... gotta recover after the holidays.
i am waiting for some serious pips... gotta recover after the holidays.
Thanks Scrat...
Welcome Back...
It great to be back and share opinions...
Keep up the good TA!!!
Waiting for some major correction this year or this month..
Nihil Sine Deo.
- #211,552
- Jan 9, 2010 11:19am Jan 9, 2010 11:19am
- Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts
Overall 15TF TL broke and failed to retrace back into the TL.(bearish bias)
TP#1 148 zone at 61.8% fib level
TP#2 147 zone at 76.8% fib level
However, if a gap occur sunday than all the short traders lockin pips before reversal at the 147,148 zones
IMHO
Good Luck
TP#1 148 zone at 61.8% fib level
TP#2 147 zone at 76.8% fib level
However, if a gap occur sunday than all the short traders lockin pips before reversal at the 147,148 zones
IMHO
Good Luck
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- #211,553
- Jan 9, 2010 1:58pm Jan 9, 2010 1:58pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: User of Geppy patience pills | 7,645 Posts
ya bearish for me, i expect UJ going down the lowest price at 86.00 before going up for Bull. Regards.
For me:
Bounce UJ @ 92.2 => long GJ
Break UJ @ 92.0 => short GJ
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
- #211,554
- Jan 9, 2010 2:18pm Jan 9, 2010 2:18pm
- Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts
I hope this chart helps.
Well, based on daily UJ I can't see this happening only a clear break below 92.0 would validate this.
For me:
Bounce UJ @ 92.2 => long GJ
Break UJ @ 92.0 => short GJ
Attachment
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- #211,555
- Jan 9, 2010 2:33pm Jan 9, 2010 2:33pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: User of Geppy patience pills | 7,645 Posts
I hope this chart helps.
I'm not expecting anything before I see things happening, although long term I'm a KABOOMER
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
- #211,556
- Jan 9, 2010 2:43pm Jan 9, 2010 2:43pm
- Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts
Thanks, TF-blue line a little too long for my trading habbits and only one confirmation, but it could mean that bounce from around 92.20-92.00 could project more upward potention than the often called 1.53 region for GJ
I'm not expecting anything before I see things happening, although long term I'm a KABOOMER
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