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Silent Service Method

  • #6,621
  • Jan 8, 2010 4:21pm Jan 8, 2010 4:21pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Danku,

Your post reminded me of my post-trade analysis of my EUR/AUD trade from this week. What I consider a "bad" trade that I actually made a little money on. Bad in the sense that I managed it really poorly after I was in it and after I had made a little coin....

Patience is a virtue that I'm still working on...

Chart:
http://i437.photobucket.com/albums/q...-06_EURAUD.png

Getting 100 when you could have gotten 300 is never a good feeling, but better than -100 I suppose...
This is a great example of what makes a winning trader - the ability to recognize when you should let it run. It's not an easy thing to do. However, you have done the first step - understanding what you should have done.

Chris
  • #6,622
  • Jan 9, 2010 3:50am Jan 9, 2010 3:50am
Chris and InfinitySL....i totally agree with you, Chris, it is NOT EASY I MUST, on a number of occasions i have closed my trades early because i went down to the 1-hr or 4-hr and notice a retracement and thought directions is changing.

My thinking is leting trades run comes with experience of what the bars are telling us....but i am incorporating a 3 SMAs strategy that might help me let trades run once i am in the trade.

Quoting clockwork71
This is a great example of what makes a winning trader - the ability to recognize when you should let it run. It's not an easy thing to do. However, you have done the first step - understanding what you should have done.

Chris
  • #6,623
  • Jan 9, 2010 5:28am Jan 9, 2010 5:28am
Gold looking Bullish now....I'm still short from weekly pin though
  • #6,624
  • Jan 9, 2010 6:34am Jan 9, 2010 6:34am
Quoting clockwork71

Truth be known, I do sometimes take a lower time frame trade, but it is based upon the stop loss levels of the weekly chart. (i.e., I might take it off of a 1 hour bar,but I put the stop loss where I would on the weekly S/R line.) When I do this, it's a trade that I already wanted to be in, and am just simply "buying cheap". I don't do it all the time, but only at dead, major, obvious areas.

The most important thing? It's simple - trade whatever time frames you are comfortable with. There is no reason to...
Chris, can you clarify this for me?
You're looking to short based on a weekly pattern, you head down to a lower tf, say 1h and see a pin you think would make a good entry. You place your order at the lower break of the pin, but your stop instead of being placed on the high of the pin is at the high of the weekly pattern which could be a lot further away. Is this correct?
  • #6,625
  • Jan 9, 2010 9:21am Jan 9, 2010 9:21am
Quoting Danku
Chris and InfinitySL....i totally agree with you, Chris, it is NOT EASY I MUST, on a number of occasions i have closed my trades early because i went down to the 1-hr or 4-hr and notice a retracement and thought directions is changing.

My thinking is leting trades run comes with experience of what the bars are telling us....but i am incorporating a 3 SMAs strategy that might help me let trades run once i am in the trade.
As a general rule, if I enter on the daily chart, I don't zoom down more than the 4 hour to set stops. I find that if you zoom down too far - you can always find a reason to talk yourself out of a trade.....

As far as the SMAs, if they help - by all means.....use 'em.
  • #6,626
  • Jan 9, 2010 9:23am Jan 9, 2010 9:23am
Quoting MattW
Chris, can you clarify this for me?
You're looking to short based on a weekly pattern, you head down to a lower tf, say 1h and see a pin you think would make a good entry. You place your order at the lower break of the pin, but your stop instead of being placed on the high of the pin is at the high of the weekly pattern which could be a lot further away. Is this correct?

I base it on weekly S/R.....

So if 1.50 is an area that I am watching - and it's a DEAD OBVIOUS AREA......and by that I mean you could spot it as soon as you open the chart: Yes, I will enter off a 1 hour bar. (example) I still place my stops according to the weekly "zone".

I am just buying the pair cheaper is all.....still basing everything off the weekly if that make sense.
  • #6,627
  • Jan 9, 2010 9:34am Jan 9, 2010 9:34am
Still waiting for corn to pop. (pun intended)
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  • #6,628
  • Jan 9, 2010 10:06am Jan 9, 2010 10:06am
did u check sugar Chris
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  • #6,629
  • Jan 9, 2010 2:18pm Jan 9, 2010 2:18pm
Chris, My post got buried so posting again. Going by the lines which I drew on weekly of EU, this was my area. The red line. The yellow one is a smaller tf support. (Colored zone is a bit off , dont mind that )

The second last candle was the reaction to the NFP. But the last candle, non news hours is also a PB. So, we short after the break of the bar??
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  • #6,630
  • Jan 9, 2010 2:35pm Jan 9, 2010 2:35pm
Quoting samer960
did u check sugar Chris
It's a market that I don't trade typically. But to be honest - that's a good chart. I do know that sugar has been way,way,way overbought.
  • #6,631
  • Jan 9, 2010 2:36pm Jan 9, 2010 2:36pm
Quoting vicky_ag
Chris, My post got buried so posting again. Going by the lines which I drew on weekly of EU, this was my area. The red line. The yellow one is a smaller tf support. (Colored zone is a bit off , dont mind that )

The second last candle was the reaction to the NFP. But the last candle, non news hours is also a PB. So, we short after the break of the bar??
I would say so yes. I would be lying if I said it was the perfect shape of pinbar.....but it's a decent area. I am interested in going short the EUR for several reasons myself.

Chris
  • #6,632
  • Edited 2:58pm Jan 9, 2010 2:52pm | Edited 2:58pm
Quoting vicky_ag
Chris, My post got buried so posting again. Going by the lines which I drew on weekly of EU, this was my area. The red line. The yellow one is a smaller tf support. (Colored zone is a bit off , dont mind that )

The second last candle was the reaction to the NFP. But the last candle, non news hours is also a PB. So, we short after the break of the bar??
I not convinced that the last candle is a pinbar in the meaning we use. Of course when you look at the bar alone in the chart it is a pinbar.

But we have to watch the proximity. You can see that we are in an short term (for the last few bars) uptrend, that makes this pinbar invalid in my opinion.

-Oh, I got it. You mean the first pinbar from the left hand side... I usually call that bar "current bar" , that why I did not get the one you mean.
  • #6,633
  • Jan 9, 2010 7:42pm Jan 9, 2010 7:42pm
I threw a new video on the front page of the site.
  • #6,634
  • Jan 9, 2010 10:40pm Jan 9, 2010 10:40pm
Quoting clockwork71
I would say so yes. I would be lying if I said it was the perfect shape of pinbar.....but it's a decent area. I am interested in going short the EUR for several reasons myself.

Chris
Reasons other than the imperfect PB?
  • #6,635
  • Jan 9, 2010 10:47pm Jan 9, 2010 10:47pm
Quoting Centaure
I not convinced that the last candle is a pinbar in the meaning we use. Of course when you look at the bar alone in the chart it is a pinbar.

But we have to watch the proximity. You can see that we are in an short term (for the last few bars) uptrend, that makes this pinbar invalid in my opinion.

-Oh, I got it. You mean the first pinbar from the left hand side... I usually call that bar "current bar" , that why I did not get the one you mean.
Centaure

Now I am confused. Current bar and the last bar? Highlighted the bar.
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  • #6,636
  • Edited 11:16pm Jan 9, 2010 11:15pm | Edited 11:16pm
Quoting vicky_ag
Reasons other than the imperfect PB?
If I'm wrong Chris will certainly correct me, but the answer to you question is that there a lot of things that suggest dollar strength going forward, which would make shorting the euro (among other things) attractive.

Personally I was hoping Friday's NFP would shed some light on this possibility.

Waiting and watching for me.
  • #6,637
  • Jan 10, 2010 3:01am Jan 10, 2010 3:01am
Quoting vicky_ag
Reasons other than the imperfect PB?
COT data, down trend, lower highs, top of a box range, at an area of resistance, fundamental USD strength reasons.... take your pick... im short till its breaks 1.45
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #6,638
  • Jan 10, 2010 3:11am Jan 10, 2010 3:11am
Quoting Low
If I'm wrong Chris will certainly correct me, but the answer to you question is that there a lot of things that suggest dollar strength going forward, which would make shorting the euro (among other things) attractive.

Personally I was hoping Friday's NFP would shed some light on this possibility.

Waiting and watching for me.
NFP was a doozy for me on Friday night, some strong buying on Euro at 1.43-142.50, however the move was quite mixed to say the least if you look on the lower tf's, id be interested to see going forward (next few months) if we see relationships start breaking down even more, possibbly Gold moving with USD strength (fear guage) who knows???
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #6,639
  • Jan 10, 2010 4:02am Jan 10, 2010 4:02am
Quoting whitegoodman
id be interested to see going forward (next few months) if we see relationships start breaking down even more, possibbly Gold moving with USD strength (fear guage) who knows???
I'm curious about this myself....I do see gold and the dollar both gaining.

I will likely be gold-and-dollar-bullish until the US raises rates.
  • #6,640
  • Jan 10, 2010 9:36am Jan 10, 2010 9:36am
I agree with the idea of USD and Gold strength being a possibility. In fact, it's just as common for gold to rise withthe Dollar as the inverse relationship. I think this might be the norm this year coming up.
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