Looking Ahead to Trading Opportunities in 2010

No one can predict what prices in any market will do in the future, but here are some ideas about possible developments and key markets to watch in the new year:
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Inflation vs. deflation: Which will win out?

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Consequences for the U.S. dollar, interest rates and other financial markets

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Prospects for economic recovery and its impact
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Inflation vs. deflation: Which will win out?

Deflation for the next year or 2 or longer.

Consequences for the U.S. dollar, interest rates and other financial markets

Continued dollar depreciation until July/August of this year when the Option ARM and Alt-a resets cause financial chaos around the world. The resets peak in Dec of next year. Merry Christmas America. History repeats and if the people flock to the US dollar during crisis, then so it.

Prospects for economic recovery and its impact

Not much. Name the big new industry that will save the current ponzi monetary system? For 100 years there has been a new invention or technology (automobile, airplane, plastics, computers, etc) to save the day and create expansion and growth. Now what is the next big industry? The internet? Hmmm. They are so desparate for something they are shoving global warming down our throats. The system is setup that it requires growth, without it the system implodes and credit contraction (deflation) takes hold.

Jim Rogers possibly has it right and agriculture is the only financial instrument that will be bullish over the next few years. Possibly gold and silver if the sheep in the world get really freaked out.


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Stay the course until June and then play it by ear.

My opinion. Good luck, its going to a helluva year or two.

I think what we should be watching as Fx traders trying to develop a long term position trade is the yeild curve divergence.

Instead of looking at yield curve divergence or whatever the ef you are talking about. How about you keep it simple and start looking at the real world. Type US economy into youtube. One negative video after another. (don't even get me started about the peoples comments because I can't type expletives on this site) Page after page of US citizens hating the system. The first video you get is Dave Walker (the former comptroller general) telling it how it is and how bad it could get if this system doesn't change.

What has changed since 2007? Not much, same old crap.

So blind me and present a new financial algorithm that will save the world. LTCM had a wonderful strategy, maybe you could tell us how we could profit just as they did. I'd luv to hear it.

well dude sounds like your angry about something before you hate and base your market views on what the idiots on youtube say... id advise you to find out why yeild curve divergence is important since we are seeing one of the steepest YCD since what the 30's... it actually shows explosive growth occuring in the next 4 - 6 months... idiots will always claim the world is comming to an end... and trying to trade that is gonna cost you alot of money.. so you go fade the dow and tell me what it feels like as a huge bull market crushes your bank account... please go listen to those cnbc msnbc youtube idiots because your account will slowly become my account. and ycd is one of the best indicators of future growth or decline and very few time does a ycd give us a trigger and we got one of the steepest curves in history and what the ef is that... its when long term yeilds in interest rates are superceaded by short term yeilds in interest rates and its a sign of future inflation or future deflation which will try to be controlled by the government and which will have an impact in the future.

Becel - interesting you point out the need for new technology/industry to promote growth. It reminded me of this video I saw the other day:
http://fora.tv/2009/11/18/Sander_van...on#fullprogram
An archaeologist who points out that cities historically have needed new innovation to keep people attracted and contributing. Without new innovations, the archaeological records show the city (or empire, like Roman empire) fade away. The problem is innovation of xx% / decade, which may be a small number, soon becomes a lot of required innovation in absolute terms. Perhaps it may be a similar thought.
I agree -- what is the new industry? So I'm always looking out for what I don't expect. Something like viable fusion, or even coal-to-fuel, or something that generates lots of cheap energy would most likely be a very large growth factor.

Firstly Domino, apologizes for the harsh comments. Its just that I'm trying to get conversation going about the future and what that may entail and I see some some post about yet another financial theorem predicting human behavior. My post was a gut reaction. I'm not trying to start a fight.

No, I haven't studied yield curve difergence, but I have looked closely at the 100 year dow chart and its pointing toward consolidation imo.

What I am suggesting (and the point I was trying to make) is that every bull market was the result of invention and the growth that came from it. Recently for example is the computer. Invented in the 50s and it wasn't until mid eighties (mass production) that it really took off. The result was a 19 year bull market that eventually burst (they all do).

I'm having trouble seeing what the next new invention is that will prepetuate the next bull market. If you know of one I'd certainly like to hear it.

The idiots on youtube are the market. Public sediment is the markets. People are the markets. Yes, people are stupid, fearful and irrational, but thats what smart investors are trying to capitalise on. There is what I think compeling evidence that we could see a ranging or downward market for quite a long time. A generation in fact. Possibly longer if peak oil is here, it could get very very ugly.

I don't think thats being an alarmist I think thats being pragmatic. Imho of course.

Oh and you want to discuss idiocy? Click on trading systems on this very site. These people trying to predict the next fifteen minutes are half retarded. Betting on noise and coinflips, yeah that will make you money lol

Profitable trading ideas result from the the simplest ideas (and daily or 4hr charts). Bloomberg reports that Dubai is having problems paying off debts. Hmm, most of the %#@& on bloomberg means nothing, but this could be something. Quick research tells you that most of that debt is owned by european banks. Hmm, possible trouble for the euro? Well then lets sell a bit and see what happens. Luck plays a factor here as Greece, Portugal, Spain and others in the EU start to report problems and there you go, 700 point drop in a month.

Zed99, thanks for the link! I'm always interested in new information. Thank you. It didn't really tell me anything that I didn't already know, but information is always welcome. World history is a very powerful leading indicator of whats to come. This is VASTLY underestimated. History might be the most important tool that an investor has, learn world history. Almost all successful investors know history.

In a nutshell, making money in markets in relatively easy. Predict with some degree of accuracy the future and if your wrong cut your losses early and if right let the profits roll.

My opinion, if you are blindly bullish in the next decade then you will possibly be the sucker. Just because the market has gone up for a generation doesn't necessarily mean it will continue.

Oh and you might be interested to know that several millionaires are now billionaires because of the crash of 08. I guess they were alarmists and suckers too.