Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

Meh... you had a good risk/reward for a 50/50 gamble.

Just taken a short @ 148.81. Only a scalp for the fall at the open..... I hope.

Edit: Out +3. PA looking increasingly bullish, so bailed.

For the open? Sunday open?

Anyone else think we could potentially push through and make new daily highs before the close? Now wouldn't that be interesting!

For US indices open.

LoL. Someone chucks - 50/50, and someone cackle - "intervention", "$500 billion" & "from A-l intelligence source".

Truthfully, i really can't tell you the full scope of the technical details because the Feds notes are shady at best.

What i can say here is that after the collection of the non-seasonal data they add what they've termed the birth/death adjustment. Basically what this is, is a figure that they somehow derived from their ARIMA model (virtually no notes on the methodology) based on data from 2 sources:

1. unemployment insurance (we'll take that as a given hard data)
2. a count of business deaths which is in turn used to extrapolate a figure for employment via new business births. (this one's extremely shady because while you can record job losses through business closures you can't objectively use deaths as a proxy to estimate births.)

In order to "smooth" out the data to prevent seasonal spikes the BLS has file called the "prior adjustment file". Basically, this is just a table filled with smoothing co-efficients for each month of the year. Take note though that the BLS has the right to arbitrarily change any one or several of the co-efficients in the file at their discretion. The co-efficient for the month of December however is noticeably high, which is most likely the reason why so many people were calling for +100k NFP. Other than the fact that the raw data came out so disastrous was the sole reason why it didn't dissolve into the perma-bull paradise to DJIA 5 million

After this new smoothed figure is derived the entire thing is whacked into the 'pride of the BLS model cabinet' to be further smoothed by the vaunted X-12 ARIMA model. Personally I can't tell you how this model works as i haven't delved into this but as you can see from the entire process it turned a -406k figure, added 59k jobs that they made up, and then through several smoothing adjustments added an extra 262k jobs to arrive at the already dismal -85k.

Given how cumbersome and how open to manipulation this entire process is, you can say you really can't be surprised if the headline figure comes with a 90% confidence interval under a normal distribution of ±200,000

just emailed you my details for your $1k promise, hope you are man of your word

bad NFP data might effect in strength in USD as safe haven, which shall repeat 2008 scenario

u are really Good in fundamental..i dont know a dime abt on it than to check upcoming economic data and news....

The risk/reward was nice, the only thing I would worry about in that trade is during those kinds of spikes some brokers aren't able to get you out in time with a zero balance and you find by the time they get you out you lost your 3k plus owe an additional 3k margin call. I've had limits get passed over during NFP and I have a couple good brokers so I prefer not to trade that news anymore, just the reaction to the reaction of the action. lol

That's nuts! Thanks for the long explanation.

Sorry Q for the delay ...Here GJ monthly EW.

Paul, see you this weekend.

okay.. we have the high of GY today 149.43

thats what i mean by good and strong !!

So you're holding shorts from there? GL

unfortunatly i am not front my computer.. and thats call from yestrday night ..

i miss this apportunatly .. but good to recorded here

always i will try my best to give best call .

i can see now great level @ 9212 for short with small SL 22 and TP 60.

and may be not reach it too ... curent price is 9205

hahaha bro this will take years to complet..

True... and think of how rich we'd all be!

if this breaks below 148.10, then next level to be tested is 147.40.
then we'll see from there:
- it might rally again and try to reach 151.60, or
- it may break 147.40 area and if this is the case then we might see 145.50.