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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #211,441
  • Jan 8, 2010 3:46am Jan 8, 2010 3:46am
Quoting USD-Bear
UJ H1 below 93.10
For the brave-ones (not me) a bounce from there (93.10) would be a perfect level to add longs.


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If I were to long U/J I'd definitely wait for a bit more unwinding in the 1H time-frame.

Quoting USD-Bear
I'm out of patience pills, closed long @ 149.00 (+170) and taking a long rest
DOH!!!
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  • #211,442
  • Jan 8, 2010 3:59am Jan 8, 2010 3:59am
Quoting Geppy
If I were to long U/J I'd definitely wait for a bit more unwinding in the 1H time-frame.



DOH!!!
Well it's a short term descision, indeed if you look at U/J daily nothing is wrong with uptrend, but then again after the upmove in G/U (the other factor) where I clearly see major resistance around 1.6044 I can't have both currencies against me.
Maybe daily U/J bouncing from support around 92.20 would get me in....

It was a great ride for me....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #211,443
  • Jan 8, 2010 4:01am Jan 8, 2010 4:01am
gj15m
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  • #211,444
  • Jan 8, 2010 4:05am Jan 8, 2010 4:05am
Quoting USD-Bear
Well it's a short term descision, indeed if you look at U/J daily nothing is wrong with uptrend, but then again after the upmove in G/U (the other factor) where I clearly see major resistance around 1.6044 I can't have both currencies against me.
Maybe daily U/J bouncing from support around 92.20 would get me in....

It was a great ride for me....
Just don't come crying to me Bear when we go straight to 154 without retrace... haha kidding! I totally understand and glad the trade went well for you. Based on our PMs, you made out quite well!
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  • #211,445
  • Jan 8, 2010 4:09am Jan 8, 2010 4:09am
i need some fundamental post on NFP..can someone pls post what u expecting
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #211,446
  • Jan 8, 2010 4:12am Jan 8, 2010 4:12am
Quoting Geppy
Just don't come crying to me Bear when we go straight to 154 without retrace... haha kidding! I totally understand and glad the trade went well for you. Based on our PMs, you made out quite well!
hmm.we need 1 candle to close above 50ema weekly for the first time this year..the bear will cry for mercy.
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #211,447
  • Jan 8, 2010 4:18am Jan 8, 2010 4:18am
Quoting donfriday
hmm.we need 1 candle to close above 50ema weekly for the first time this year..the bear will cry for mercy.
Hmmm, yes that would be interesting now wouldn't it. Would definitely strengthen the argument for a run at 160s and then it would be make or break time... very interesting crossroads we're coming toward.
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  • #211,448
  • Jan 8, 2010 4:20am Jan 8, 2010 4:20am
3 hours to go !! i have an extra 2nd account where i transfer yesterday 3k$ for a NFP gamble..

my plan for 2day..

enter eur/usd short 5 min before the release with 40 mini lots with no stop and limit at 1.3750 and close the account. leverage 200:1 ..

28k$ ,,or down 3k$ ..

wish me luck! im possitive
  • #211,449
  • Jan 8, 2010 4:20am Jan 8, 2010 4:20am
gj15m
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  • #211,450
  • Jan 8, 2010 4:26am Jan 8, 2010 4:26am
Quoting Gucc
3 hours to go !! i have an extra 2nd account where i transfer yesterday 3k$ for a NFP gamble..

my plan for 2day..

enter eur/usd short 5 min before the release with 40 mini lots with no stop and limit at 1.3750 and close the account. leverage 200:1 ..

28k$ ,,or down 3k$ ..

wish me luck! im possitive
Hahaha, that is awesome Gucc.

Best of luck!
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  • #211,451
  • Jan 8, 2010 4:45am Jan 8, 2010 4:45am
Quoting Geppy
Hahaha, that is awesome Gucc.

Best of luck!
I have to admit that I did not trust that rally and missed nice profit potential,
still holding my shorts and believe that geppy is topping now
  • #211,452
  • Jan 8, 2010 4:52am Jan 8, 2010 4:52am
Quoting metlife777
I have to admit that I did not trust that rally and missed nice profit potential,
still holding my shorts and believe that geppy is topping now
I was wondering where you were lil buddy. You know, if you aren't careful you're going to switch your bear bias to a bull one right as we all switch to bears...
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  • #211,453
  • Jan 8, 2010 4:58am Jan 8, 2010 4:58am
Quoting Geppy
I was wondering where you were lil buddy. You know, if you aren't careful you're going to switch your bear bias to a bull one right as we all switch to bears...
see you in bear's camp
  • #211,454
  • Jan 8, 2010 5:00am Jan 8, 2010 5:00am
Quoting donfriday
hmm.we need 1 candle to close above 50ema weekly for the first time this year..the bear will cry for mercy.
Agreed.

In hindsight, I may have closed my GY longs a bit early, but am happy not to be in a long trade pre NFP.
The way I see NFP is this; last month's figure of -11K was a massive shock and 114K less than the concensus. This month, I would not expect anything like that good a figure even though the estimate is -3K. A figure above -50K and Yen pairs will take a rapid tumble. (But they are still bullish IMO, so I will buy on any dip).
If the figure is in positive territory, then >150 for GY rapidly too IMO.

The thing is I have seen a few people here quoting 154-155 as a region to reverse bias, but i'm not so sure I see a reverse there myself. Sure, there is previous resistance there, but there would also be a mini triple top and we all know what happens on the third time test....

Keeping flexible and a significant post NFP shakeout lower would not surprise me, but it's hard to look beyond medium term longs atm.

We'll see.

Edit: Just looked and we have a mini-double top at 150.8 and another at 153.3. Break those and I don't see too much in the way of GY approaching 160.
  • #211,455
  • Jan 8, 2010 5:01am Jan 8, 2010 5:01am
Quoting metlife777
see you in bear's camp

metlife.. ill transfer 1k to you,,if you can show me a proof of youre short entry on youre live acc

stop taking the piss

{ this is a live account forum,not demo.. }

let us know when you start youre live acc. so whe can help
  • #211,456
  • Jan 8, 2010 5:08am Jan 8, 2010 5:08am
Quoting Gucc
metlife.. ill transfer 1k to you,,if you can show me a proof of youre short entry on youre live acc

stop taking the piss

{ this is a live account forum,not demo.. }

let us know when you start youre live acc. so whe can help
let's hope that you'll keep you word
  • #211,457
  • Jan 8, 2010 5:08am Jan 8, 2010 5:08am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Agreed.

The thing is I have seen a few people here quoting 154-155 as a region to reverse bias, but i'm not so sure I see a reverse there myself. Sure, there is previous resistance there, but there would also be a mini triple top and we all know what happens on the third time test....

Keeping flexible and a significant post NFP shakeout lower would not surprise me, but it's hard to look beyond medium term longs atm.

We'll see.

Edit: Just looked and we have a mini-double top at 150.8 and another at 153.3. Break those and I don't see too much...
Don, I agree that 154/155 or wherever are areas to watch (not necessarily reverse bias). I would be most interested in reversing my bias on a large fail of the WEEKLY downtrend line that is very prevalent. I will, however, probably be looking to book some profit in the mid 150s as I'm holding shorts from down in the 146 area and would just have much too much on paper to not close some out. But until I completely change my bias you can rest assured that I'm holding longs and adding to them.
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  • #211,458
  • Jan 8, 2010 5:10am Jan 8, 2010 5:10am
whats the best way to trade nfp? could try setting a limit order on one side or both and risk getting whipped both ways

could wait and see where it goes first then risk entering just as it reverses the other way, or miss most of the move anyway.

OR try and get a position into profit beforehand. get stop at +1 and hope it goes your way on release for loadsa pips.

since my broker ramps up the spread to at least 25 pips i can either get in real early, since 25 pips on nfp is overcome in a second. or i have to wait until the spread drops by which time the move has probably already happened.
  • #211,459
  • Jan 8, 2010 5:11am Jan 8, 2010 5:11am
Quoting Gucc
metlife.. ill transfer 1k to you,,if you can show me a proof of youre short entry on youre live acc

stop taking the piss

{ this is a live account forum,not demo.. }

let us know when you start youre live acc. so whe can help
pls check your private message
  • #211,460
  • Jan 8, 2010 5:12am Jan 8, 2010 5:12am
On another note, this PA right now is eerie. I feel like I've been here before. Stochastics on every time frame up to 4H and arguably including 4H appear to signal an overbought environment. However, I feel like I've felt this before. It looks overbought into a big new release... sellers pile in and instead of a big drop we get a huge short squeeze. I'm not saying this will happen necessarily, just that I've seen it before and something is definitely up with this PA.
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