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Islander and Medici trade the European open

  • #61
  • Jan 8, 2010 3:33am Jan 8, 2010 3:33am
Note that the spike up and reversal happened at exactly 9.30, a point in time when reversals often happen.
  • #62
  • Jan 8, 2010 3:36am Jan 8, 2010 3:36am
Quoting medici
How wrong I was about no more upside...

Good thinking about other important levels nearby. 1.6020 were highs on 24 and 29 Dec.

Now short from R1. TWT.

Edit...6033 is 50% of the end of Dec up move.
Now that's a better level - cable frequently respects the 50%.....and the data was close to expectations...
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #63
  • Edited 3:58am Jan 8, 2010 3:46am | Edited 3:58am
Quoting Islander
I haven't followed my own rules today and may wind up taking a loss.

However, the highest volume on the 5 min chart was in the shooting star 3 candles ago - with a small body and large upside wick its a sign of considerable selling.....as to whether or not its the turning point.....TWT
Too bad. Is it the thread chatting that loosens your discipline?
  • #64
  • Jan 8, 2010 3:48am Jan 8, 2010 3:48am
IF my interpretation of the PA and volume is correct, then it can take up to an hour for distribution to take place. This shows up as sideways action in a narrow range, with the possibility of a stop sweeping spike to the upside, before the start of a down move......as its a Freaky NFP Friday........
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #65
  • Jan 8, 2010 3:57am Jan 8, 2010 3:57am
Quoting Islander
Now that's a better level - cable frequently respects the 50%.....and the data was close to expectations...
Apart from PPI, this may have had an impact:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...s-1861328.html
  • #66
  • Jan 8, 2010 4:05am Jan 8, 2010 4:05am
Referring to my earlier rant on the old thread about session trends and reversal patterns:

If one gets a good entry in the right direction around 7am, such as at 5927 today, it is more often than not a good idea to simply hold it until a consolidation or reversal occurs, whereas counter-trend trades can be costly.

So the rule is: The session trend is your friend.
  • #67
  • Jan 8, 2010 4:23am Jan 8, 2010 4:23am
Agreed - trade with the trend......and when you dont - expect to be reminded!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jan 8 cable 1m 1020 gmt.gif Size: 26 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #68
  • Jan 8, 2010 4:40am Jan 8, 2010 4:40am
Nice chart, and here's mine. The fibs are from the end of Dec up move.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable08jan.jpg Size: 165 KB
  • #69
  • Jan 8, 2010 4:52am Jan 8, 2010 4:52am
Quoting medici
Too bad. Is it the thread chatting that loosens your discipline?

It doesnt help, especially if you're trying to make the posts as near "real time" as possible, however I've got another couple of distractions too, so I'm not as focused as I should be.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #70
  • Jan 8, 2010 4:59am Jan 8, 2010 4:59am
I've just banked some pips on one of my shorts as price hit the 5m 30ema which is currently flat.....€ also has hit its 4300 level.

My other short is still underwater, but I'll see what happens retracementwise.

A pull back to the 30 ema followed by a bounce into a LH gives a classic high probability short signal......on NFP day and this late in the European morning it may not be as reliable....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #71
  • Jan 8, 2010 5:09am Jan 8, 2010 5:09am
Quoting Islander
I've just banked some pips on one of my shorts as price hit the 5m 30ema which is currently flat.....€ also has hit its 4300 level.

My other short is still underwater, but I'll see what happens retracementwise.

A pull back to the 30 ema followed by a bounce into a LH gives a classic high probability short signal......on NFP day and this late in the European morning it may not be as reliable....
I closed mine there too, when 23.6% of the morning session held. Took a short when retest of 76.4% of yesterday failed and closed again at 23.6% of this morning. It's a fib day....
  • #72
  • Jan 8, 2010 5:48am Jan 8, 2010 5:48am
Quoting ozmacca
I thought perhaps it may be better to trade a different pair when big news is due on GU that morning.
Not in my experience, but around 9am (for 9.30 releases) liquidity may start to dry up and things become more unpredictable. So I trade as usual on news days. Sometimes there's a 'wait-and-see' session before that but you never know, so it's just a matter of going with what the market tells you it's doing.
  • #73
  • Jan 8, 2010 5:53am Jan 8, 2010 5:53am
Quoting pilotui
No, I focus mostly on pair strength information ...
How do you obtain that?
  • #74
  • Jan 8, 2010 7:14am Jan 8, 2010 7:14am
Quoting Islander
IF my interpretation of the PA and volume is correct, then it can take up to an hour for distribution to take place. This shows up as sideways action in a narrow range, with the possibility of a stop sweeping spike to the upside, before the start of a down move......as its a Freaky NFP Friday........

So my timing was a little out.....it was an hour and a half before the fall started...........and now that earlier short is also in profit and so I'll probably close it before the NFP...

Interestingly, the Euro's actually dropped more than cable.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #75
  • Jan 8, 2010 7:19am Jan 8, 2010 7:19am
Quoting Islander
So my timing was a little out.....it was an hour and a half before the fall started......
LOL!

Quoting Islander
.....and now that earlier short is also in profit and so I'll probably close it before the NFP...

Interestingly, the Euro's actually dropped more than cable.....
I'm glad for you.

Not surprised about the Euro drop. This will be an interesting afternoon.
  • #76
  • Jan 8, 2010 9:04am Jan 8, 2010 9:04am
Quoting medici
LOL!



I'm glad for you.

Not surprised about the Euro drop. This will be an interesting afternoon.
Thanks - I've finished for the week - have a good weekend - its looking as if we'll have a bad one here, we even had some snow this morning.....mulled wine and hibernation spring to mind....

Cheers
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #77
  • Jan 8, 2010 9:10am Jan 8, 2010 9:10am
Quoting Islander
Thanks - I've finished for the week - have a good weekend - its looking as if we'll have a bad one here, we even had some snow this morning.....mulled wine and hibernation spring to mind....

Cheers
Same to you! And I am sure you've heard about the weather/snow conditions in the UK, so don't complain
  • #78
  • Jan 8, 2010 9:36am Jan 8, 2010 9:36am
Quoting medici
Same to you! And I am sure you've heard about the weather/snow conditions in the UK, so don't complain
LOL - I just didnt want you guys to think that it doesnt snow in The Med and that we're all sitting on the beach....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #79
  • Jan 8, 2010 10:17am Jan 8, 2010 10:17am
In case sometime in the future we wish to discuss this type of trading, this chart highlights a couple of things that I've used in the past......fibs over the initial spikes and the use of fixed outer bands to high-light OB/OS conditions....they're not for the faint of heart!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jan 8 cable 1m nfp.gif Size: 23 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #80
  • Jan 8, 2010 10:37am Jan 8, 2010 10:37am
Quoting Islander
In case sometime in the future we wish to discuss this type of trading, this chart highlights a couple of things that I've used in the past......fibs over the initial spikes and the use of fixed outer bands to high-light OB/OS conditions....they're not for the faint of heart!
That's interesting. Thanks, I'll take a look at that. Today was a classic fade. Half an hour of buying up to strong levels, 6110 and 4410, and then reverse.

Have a good weekend (in spite of your horrible weather...) and see you Monday.
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