Good luck with that trade. Oh, and remember that of the Big 5 banks ranked in Canada Scotia is number 6.
Not to mention that the weekly is showing divergence but hey your positive about your trade thong and all so no problem.
Oh another thing, The Canadian government said just last November that it would not be increasing rates anytime soon because of the concerns over the export manufatures in Canada and the weakness of the US dollar.
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Remember the old Avis commercial-"we're #2, so we try harder"? So Scotia gotta try 3x's harder.
Right, "the government said...." I forgot that news & I forgot the fact that politicians NEVER LIE or do a 180 on their pronouncements. Heck, I recall McGuinty saying that he won't raise taxes.
This causes me to re-evaluate my trade decision.
OK: new prediction- USD/CAD shall achieve parity before the Leafs win the Stanley Cup! THAT Bablo, you may NOT dispute!
By the way, thanks for the feedback, it is nice to have other viewpoints to consider before making the trade.
So I was wondering, when you talk about the Big 5's ranking, are you referring to their asset size? If so, I was just wondering how that would matter and if that is the case I am fairly certain Scotia is 3rd with TD in 2nd place and RBC at the top of the pack...
Also, of the Big 5 they are ranked 6...? So they are not in the Big 5 or they are in the Big 5 but ranked worse? This seems to be a bit contradictory, mais oui?
[quote=bablo;3342496]Good luck with that trade. Oh, and remember that of the Big 5 banks ranked in Canada Scotia is number 6.
Scotiabank sheet today : CFTC data: big boys are largest net long position on CAD.
They are looking @ parity mid-2010 & .97 @ year end.
So I shall "thong" US/CAD ( not a pretty visual) but the profits will pad my "codpiece".
Yep; I shall become a bare on this pair.
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Just some food for thought: the banks, Scotia included, have been calling for parity since May '09. At that time most of them felt parity would be reached within a week or two, and when that failed to materialize, it was then that most of them decided around mid-June for parity. And then July, and then August...Get my drift?
I have seen Scotia's, among the other banks' research, and although most is decent, they are far from infallible - as are we all. Interestingly enough, the lady who does some of the research at Scotia, can't remember her name but you prob. know who I mean, was rated as one of the most accurate forecasters at a bank for the USD/CHF pair (I thought this was a bit odd...).
Anyway, I think the the USD/CAD will run into a lot of (corporate) bids at 1.0265 and then at 1.0200-1.0210 area. Overall, I still think fading rallies is the best option and 1.0370 or should this pair breakthrough there, 1.0420, are areas I would look at selling on failures. As for buying, at the moment I am going only short...but would buy a bounce around 1.0205 or sell a break at around 1.0195ish...
[quote=Vengeance;3345745]Just some food for thought: the banks, Scotia included, have been calling for parity since May '09. At that time most of them felt parity would be reached within a week or two, and when that failed to materialize, it was then that most of them decided around mid-June for parity. And then July, and then August...Get my drift
...[/quote
Thks Venge for input. Didn't mean to imply that it all was Gospel.
The bank sheets, just added some ammo for my bias (bare) as result of my TA.
I still buy when D, 4H suggests it may be prudent & take profit.
However, I stand by my convictions: IF THE LEAFS WIN THE CUP BEFORE PARITY- THEN POUTINE FOR ALL CONTRIBUTORS TO THIS THREAD! BEAVER TAILS IF THEY DO IT IN 4 STRAIGHT!!
So USD/CAD trading in a pretty tight (13 pip) range the last few hours. Looks like nobody wants to jump in before NFPs come out... So let's play the guessing game, what does everything think could happen tomorrow with employment data out from the U.S. and Canada?
I think CAD data will be around the consensus 20k or maybe as high as 30k...As for NFPs, no idea whatsoever... However, let's say they come out better than expected. Would you reckon USD gains or loses on that data? In light of Fed raffirming their pledge to keep rates low (some think until 2011), I am guessing, and this is a pure shot in the dark here, that USD loses ground assuming CAD emp. data is roughly as expected.
Overall, no idea, and will sit out until at least an hour or two after the releases, maybe longer if things get messy.
Anyway, I think the the USD/CAD will run into a lot of (corporate) bids at 1.0265 and then at 1.0200-1.0210 area. Overall, I still think fading rallies is the best option and 1.0370 or should this pair breakthrough there, 1.0420, are areas I would look at selling on failures. As for buying, at the moment I am going only short...but would buy a bounce around 1.0205 or sell a break at around 1.0195ish...
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Your input is the exchange of info that I think will assist others trading this pair.
Before I corroborate your assessment, may I make a small personal request? May I just refer to you as "V". My ex-wife's first name was "Vengeance" & she married her lawyer ( whose surname is " Castrater")
Painful memories!
My Monthly: up TL from 11/07-10/09 -1.0343 is the support $. <than 1.03xx is down bias.
MacD Month going down< signal/< H2O
STO staying flat @ O/S
Oct 09 low 1.0204 great stop (as you indicated)
hahaha! No problem! Although I prefer Venge...for no real reason...
Personally, I don't really use much in the way of indicators. I look at them once in a while, just to be in the know as to what other traders are likely thinking. Bollis are decent for support/resis. as are SMAs & TLs as well, of course, as using actual price action - prior high/lows, congestion areas, etc.
And although I still favour selling rallies, I stayed out at 1.0370 mainly due to the 5 min and 15 min charts not showing a couple tests of rest. before failing. Just one quick touch and then down...a little too risky for me to have tried jumping in on that one...
And with NFPs out tomorrow, I am not even contemplating jumping in for that!
Overall, no idea, and will sit out until at least an hour or two after the releases, maybe longer if things get messy.
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I'm out U/cad & shall wait out the fluctuations due to nfp & other news.
You still got a poutine choice ( s/m/l/pig size) if Leafs get Stanley before I get parity.(offer good until 2030 the year, not the price).
Good trading Vengeance.
I'm out U/cad & shall wait out the fluctuations due to nfp & other news.
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Probably a wise decision! As for poutine, if it were actually a really good one, I would def. go piggy piggy all the way! Somehow though, I suspect the leaf's chance of winning the cup to be, at the very least, unlikely till 2018 at the earliest... So I be thinking I will have to get my own poutine. Damn you Leafs! Why can't you get your shit together?
hahaha! No problem! Although I prefer Venge...for no real reason...
Personally, I don't really use much in the way of indicators. I look at them once in a while, just to be in the know as to what other traders are likely thinking. Bollis are decent for support/resis. as are SMAs & TLs as well, of course, as using actual price action - prior high/lows, congestion areas, etc.
And although I still favour selling rallies, I stayed out at 1.0370 mainly due to the 5 min and 15 min charts not showing a couple tests of rest. before failing. Just one...
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I am flat for nfp. Gives me a weekend to look @ various pairs for higher probability trades.
Just in case that I am wrong & lose our bet: may I buy the poutine now & save it for you?
Nice scalp! I have an oreder on down at 1.0205. SL at 1.0195 and sell a break there. TP on long...still deciding but maybe 1.0250s. On short side TP will be about 1.0170
Well the area I was hoping to TP at if rate had hit my limit at 1.0205 proved to be good support as USD/CAD was unable to breach it. Pretty good bounce higher and is finding difficulty pushing through intra-day support at 1.0333, which coincides with 100 hr. SMA. Looking to now buy at a break here to ride up to 1.0400 or conversely, get short if it fails... Anyone else have some ideas?
Well the area I was hoping to TP at if rate had hit my limit at 1.0205 proved to be good support as USD/CAD was unable to breach it. Pretty good bounce higher and is finding difficulty pushing through intra-day support at 1.0333, which coincides with 100 hr. SMA. Looking to now buy at a break here to ride up to 1.0400 or conversely, get short if it fails... Anyone else have some ideas?
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Venge: Why are you buying?????
What TF are you basing your trades on? Post your TF & tell me why you made that trade! See if I can give some advice that might assist you.
PICKED UP 39 PIPS LAST NIGHT ON SCALPS.
Just finished work so able to check my hobby tonight.
Mizuho Corporate bank sheet: their ichimouku chart showed $ near Oct lows & heading south. They feel a weekly close < 1.0200 should lead to .9800 ( sell rallies, etc).
Scotiabank(ranked #6 in the top 5 Canadian banks, don't you know) they still be bearish US/CAD pair ( bull on Cdn$) -there is a difference newbies.
Bank of NY Mellon bullish CDN$.
With China news bullish- there were increased imports of copper & iron to them guys ( bullish for commodity currencies).
Sure wish I knew how to post charts on my dissertations ( but as the Anti-Christ {the ex} is so fond of telling me, I am "dumber than dirt").
Venge: Why are you buying?????
What TF are you basing your trades on? Post your TF & tell me why you made that trade! See if I can give some advice that might assist you.
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I appreciate that help you might be able to give some advice. That said, I don't really rely on other people's advice as I prefer to do my own legwork, and I have no one to blame but myself if I enter an unprofitable trade. As for banks' research...well I honestly have little faith in what "they" say. And as I pointed out in a prior post, the banks have been calling for par for oh, 9 months now.
I have been telling my clients since the breakdown in the USD in Mar. '09 that the best strategy is to sell USD rallies and still believe so at the moment. That said, buying at 1.0205 area (significant low), which should likely see strong buying interest, is a good risk/reward trade. Also, as intra-day bias favours USD strength, A break of intra-day resistance at 1.0333 would be an opportunity to go long (1.0370-1.0400 target) and conversely, a failure would be good chance to go short.
As you can see, I prefer to trade intra-day vs. longer time frames, although I do look at the 4hr & daily charts.
As for indicators, I pretty much use naked charts except for SMAs and bollinger bands for support/resistance areas, and CCI or RSI for OB/OS indications. I also use a lot of PA for support/resistance.
Going back to what you asked, why I made that trade - which trade were you referring to? The buy at 1.0205 never happened and as it turns out, buying a bounce of 1.0250-1.0265 support would have made some decent pips. Wasn't awake to try and capitalize on that... And as for the 1.0333 idea, didn't buy there either as I just got home. I don't usually put on limit orders as I like to be awake and at the PC when I am trading so sometimes I miss trades, but no worries as there will always be more. Also, I rarely trade Asian session as USDCAD isn't very active there and Asian trading, IMO, has weird movements. I generally just stick to NY session, but look at charts when I get home for opportunities and ideas for the next day.
