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Silent Service Method

  • #6,581
  • Jan 7, 2010 10:18am Jan 7, 2010 10:18am
Quoting Danku
Lost big on this pair yesterday, the 2 Day PB refused to work but i suspect the News might had something to do with it as it stalled for quit sometime.
What was your trade yesterday on EUR.JPY? I had a short for a good gain. Can you share your chart?

Thanks, kulu
  • #6,582
  • Jan 7, 2010 10:29am Jan 7, 2010 10:29am
I have been thinking about this since the inception of this Commercial - Under Evaluation nonsense from FF.

I have no idea why the Silent Method Thread is still under evaluation. This is one of the best threads on this forum. One reason I can think of is that there are some people out there that are "hating" on this thread. It really doesn't matter, but I thought I would just say what's on my mind.

To reiterate, I think it's BS that this thread is still under evaluation.

******************************************************

To Whom it may concern (Moderator):

I think there is some "politics" going on with this evaluation process. Some people are blocking this thread from being "approved" in fear of ... who knows what. Usually when you have such problems, we all want transparency. Why doesn't the moderator or whoever is in charge of this evaluation process make it in such a way that we can see who vouched (and their comments) on what thread.

Just make it public information just like you show vouchers, friends, and so on. Why are we hiding this information?

Thanks
  • #6,583
  • Jan 7, 2010 10:43am Jan 7, 2010 10:43am
Quoting kulu
I have been thinking about this since the inception of this Commercial - Under Evaluation nonsense from FF.

I have no idea why the Silent Method Thread is still under evaluation. This is one of the best threads on this forum. One reason I can think of is that there are some people out there that are "hating" on this thread. It really doesn't matter, but I thought I would just say what's on my mind.

To reiterate, I think it's BS that this thread is still under evaluation.

******************************************************

To Whom...
I was wondering the same thing. Why is this thread still under evaluation. Surely it has had enough rates from vouched members to be in the commercial thread.

I would also like to see who has rated the thread.
  • #6,584
  • Jan 7, 2010 11:16am Jan 7, 2010 11:16am
Hi Vicky,

yes i do factor in confluence, fibs i use on pull backs, if you have a pinbar at a pivot zone on a pull back from the major trend, fib ret @ 61.8% or 50%. Dont go overboard on analysis, but what is backing up your signal?

We are looking for high probability trades, thats why we use weekly or daily charts.

if You have 2 or 3 technical reasons why that pinbar will break, its better than taking a pinbar on its own.

Its all about location, location, location.

Do a search on google regarding "orderflow", it may help tie things in more aswell

Warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #6,585
  • Jan 7, 2010 12:34pm Jan 7, 2010 12:34pm
Quoting bigwal
Hi Vicky,

yes i do factor in confluence, fibs i use on pull backs, if you have a pinbar at a pivot zone on a pull back from the major trend, fib ret @ 61.8% or 50%. Dont go overboard on analysis, but what is backing up your signal?

We are looking for high probability trades, thats why we use weekly or daily charts.

if You have 2 or 3 technical reasons why that pinbar will break, its better than taking a pinbar on its own.

Its all about location, location, location.

Do a search on google regarding "orderflow", it may help tie things in...
Warren, google search on "orderflow" throws up many research papers (inaccessible cause they are available only to "scholars" ) or some trading firms teaching the "order flow" technique to be applied to 30yr bonds. Do you have anything specific link in mind which I can go through?
  • #6,586
  • Jan 7, 2010 1:01pm Jan 7, 2010 1:01pm
Quoting vicky_ag
Warren, google search on "orderflow" throws up many research papers (inaccessible cause they are available only to "scholars" ) or some trading firms teaching the "order flow" technique to be applied to 30yr bonds. Do you have anything specific link in mind which I can go through?
Sam Seiden breaks down orderflow and price to its simplest level (imo). Do a google search for his name, also "Lessons From the Pros" weekly articles and "FXStreet Seiden" for his contributor page which will also show numerous archived webinars where he discusses his trading style along with supply & demand (aka orderflow). I'd post direct links, but most of them would probably be considered competition to ForexFactory and I don't want to get banned or reprimanded.
  • #6,587
  • Jan 7, 2010 1:57pm Jan 7, 2010 1:57pm
Quoting calderone
I was wondering the same thing. Why is this thread still under evaluation. Surely it has had enough rates from vouched members to be in the commercial thread.

I would also like to see who has rated the thread.
Kulu, calderone,

According to the rules, the thread needs an average of 3.5 stars to be moved from evaluation to the full commercial section, from at least 5 reviews, although there are a few 5 star threads in there with less than 5 reviews for some reason.

In my opinion, this is one of the best threads in the Forex Factory and should be rated at 5 stars but obviously some people don't share the same sentiment.

I agree that it would be good to see who rates the threads and we could all see the politics going on behind it.

Regards Chris
  • #6,588
  • Jan 7, 2010 1:59pm Jan 7, 2010 1:59pm
Quoting Bayport_Bob
Sam Seiden breaks down orderflow and price to its simplest level (imo). Do a google search for his name, also "Lessons From the Pros" weekly articles and "FXStreet Seiden" for his contributor page which will also show numerous archived webinars where he discusses his trading style along with supply & demand (aka orderflow). I'd post direct links, but most of them would probably be considered competition to ForexFactory and I don't want to get banned or reprimanded.
I agree with Bayport_Bob - the Seiden videos are excellent and well worth watching.

Chris
  • #6,589
  • Jan 7, 2010 2:16pm Jan 7, 2010 2:16pm
Quoting Bayport_Bob
Sam Seiden breaks down orderflow and price to its simplest level (imo). Do a google search for his name, also "Lessons From the Pros" weekly articles and "FXStreet Seiden" for his contributor page which will also show numerous archived webinars where he discusses his trading style along with supply & demand (aka orderflow). I'd post direct links, but most of them would probably be considered competition to ForexFactory and I don't want to get banned or reprimanded.
Thanks for posting this Bob.....anything to advance the class so to speak. I will check him out over the weekend, since I have heard good things about him.
  • #6,590
  • Jan 7, 2010 2:24pm Jan 7, 2010 2:24pm
Hi Vicky,

I did take a look through google, there doesnt seem to be a simple answer, for someone like yourself looking at it for the first time.

I did make a post about orderflow on this thread a short time ago.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=6011

In order to understand the forex market and trade, we need to understand what moves the market !

look at the market on a bar by bar basis (daily or weekly)

where the market has big or massive moves is at points of interest, lots of orders are placed there, it sees large orderflow.

You want to find and position yourself where the largest amount of orders are being placed.

Warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #6,591
  • Jan 7, 2010 2:32pm Jan 7, 2010 2:32pm
Hi Bob,

Pulled up some information from the guy you mentioned, looks very informative, lets see what Chris makes of it.

Half the battle of teaching or informing people is the ability to get the information across in bite size easy to digest sections, Chris is very good at this, hence the popular thread.

warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #6,592
  • Jan 7, 2010 3:08pm Jan 7, 2010 3:08pm
Quoting kulu
What was your trade yesterday on EUR.JPY? I had a short for a good gain. Can you share your chart?

Thanks, kulu
Hey Kulu,
This is your short idea posted in another thread, here on FF, 1HR AFTER the original call by the thread starter?? (although 20pip difference in range)
The same call you were asking advice over??
The same thread you were asking the trader"s R/R levels, even though you said you'd read the thread, a mighty 35-40 pages long?
Hey bro, how about posting a call on the other thread, in the next few days, or week whatever, AHEAD of what the thread starter posts? Make a call. Then it may be more relevant for other traders to determine whether you're genuine?


Regarding this thread being where it is, my guess is most traders are happy where they are at J16, and a fair degree of animosity was instigated by the opening of this thread, this is in no way derogatory to Chris, i think he is entitled to do what he wants, hell i'm gonna subscribe to J16, Jacko or Chris, just trying to make my mind up which style suits my personality better.

Kulu, looking forward to you calls.
  • #6,593
  • Jan 7, 2010 3:30pm Jan 7, 2010 3:30pm
Quoting clockwork71
Thanks for posting this Bob.....anything to advance the class so to speak. I will check him out over the weekend, since I have heard good things about him.
The seiden videos are great. Most of it you already know, he just explains it differently.

I think one thing that most "PB/BEOB/BUOB" folks (especially the new traders) forget is that you are really not trading the "bar." You are not trading the PB. It's more of what the PB is saying at that area. So if you have a PB at demand or supply zone, it just shows you that there is an inbalance of supply at demand at the point of rejection. So, that means that if you went even to a different timeframe than where you see your pin, you should still see a demand and supply level, again because it's more the level than the candle pattern itself that makes you watch that area/zone. It's the orderflow at that zone that creates that reaction, not the opposite.

Again, don't trade the candlestick pattern, trade the PA at an area. The PB or BEOB/BUOB just show you that there was a rejection at that area. Is that area a strong area? That's up to you to evaluate.

Now, how can you tell if a demand or supply level is strong or not? For example, convectional wisdom says that a level that has been visited several times and rejected price indicates a strong zone/level. Seiden uses a very simple example to suggest otherwise. He uses the example of chopping down a tree. With every chop, you remove some mass from the tree making it weaker and weaker. So he suggests that the fewer times a level has been revisited, the stronger the zone/level. Just demo and watch for your self. All of this hinges on your picking the correct zones though. If you pick a wrong area, price will just blow through it all the time.

So again, there is more to trading PA than just picking out candlestick patterns and round numbers. You have to see the big picture. Here is a most recent example of the GBP.JPY

The big picture trend is down, so ideally I am looking for shorts. Level marked 1 represents a demand (resistance) zone. Why? Because at the level, price could not stay there because of the imbalance in supply and demand (there is more buyers than sellers). Look at how aggressively price moved away from there? So for a while it looked like there were as many sellers as there were buyers (because price was ranging). And then as soon as that last seller filled their price, price shot up (since there were no more sellers). So you mark that zone down as a potential profit target (remember overal trend is down).

Then we got to level marked 2. Again, price gapped down strongly. Why? Because there were more sellers at that level than buyers. So we mark that zone and watch for our high probability shorts. And what do you know, price came back 3, and we entered short. Anyone that didn't take note of that level and entered long at any point close to that supply zone was just donating their money. Entered short with the target on the opposing demand level, 1. You could have gone long at the demand zone, 4 for a few points. When I am going against the trend I use the 68% retracement for targets. So my target would be around 149.00 (which hasn't hit yet - but I didn't take this long trade).

I hope this makes sense. The point here is not to trade candlesticks. Trade candlesticks in relation to support (demand) and resistance (supply). Just draw your levels in and let price get to it and then look for a trade. That's what the Silent Method is about.

Cheers, Kulu
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  • #6,594
  • Jan 7, 2010 3:39pm Jan 7, 2010 3:39pm
Quoting kulu
The seiden videos are great. Most of it you already know, he just explains it differently.

I think one thing that most "PB/BEOB/BUOB" folks (especially the new traders) forget is that you are really not trading the "bar." You are not trading the PB. It's more of what the PB is saying at that area. So if you have a PB at demand or supply zone, it just shows you that there is an inbalance of supply at demand at the point of rejection. So, that means that if you went even to a different timeframe than where you see your pin, you should still...
  • #6,595
  • Jan 7, 2010 3:44pm Jan 7, 2010 3:44pm
I wasn't asking him about the trade, I showed him my chart before the price got to the zone and then I said I didn't understand why he had 134 on there.

I just asked what your chart looked like and nothing else. I have no idea why you are jumping on me for. I just asked to see your chart. Why do I need to post a call? I guess that was my bad asking you to post your chart to share with everyone. I don't trade anyone's calls. Who does that, especially on an educational forum. C'mon now. Dude, I don't want to start a fight with you or anything, I think you are over-reacting to what I thought was a simple request for your chart. In respect for the thread, send me nasty emails or PM (and then I will give you my 2 cents). Please none of this on Chris' thread. Again, I was just asking for a chart. Is there anything wrong with that?

Quoting w buffet jnr
Hey Kulu,
This is your short idea posted in another thread, here on FF, 1HR AFTER the original call by the thread starter?? (although 20pip difference in range)
The same call you were asking advice over??
The same thread you were asking the trader"s R/R levels, even though you said you'd read the thread, a mighty 35-40 pages long?
Hey bro, how about posting a call on the other thread, in the next few days, or week whatever, AHEAD of what the thread starter posts? Make a call. Then it may be more relevant for other traders to determine whether...
  • #6,596
  • Jan 7, 2010 3:44pm Jan 7, 2010 3:44pm
Hi,

I thought i would post a chart for a failed trade and imo this would shine a light on the subject of orderflow.

Pinbar on Nzd/Usd, touching trendline, fib ret 61.8. Looked pretty good but i missed one thing. As per the chart, under the base of this pinbar was a pivot zone i have it pinged at 0.7300.

This i quite a strong zone, all those bar highs late nov early dec. It is quite clear to see that although the pinbar was activated, 0.7300 was a stalling point, round these pivot points you will find large groupings of orders, this orderflow has pushed the price higher.

Consider this area to have been like a trampoline, it looks like it is coming down to attack this area again if there are no buyers there it will break through, on the southside are there sellers?

in conclusion i feel if the above mentioned pinbar had been lower over all and the close had been under 0.7300 we would be in a good trade.

Can someone show me how to put these charts in the body of my text, thank you.

warren
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I need to finish something i started
  • #6,597
  • Jan 7, 2010 3:55pm Jan 7, 2010 3:55pm
Kulu,

Thanks for your post on supply and demand, much better than mine.

I think, when the penny drops you can see the charts in a different light. It just a matter of waiting for price to get to what you know as a important area, then waiting for a signal.

Some while ago, i would wait blindly for a buob, or pinbar, these days i can see it coming, i watch price moving toward an area of interest.

So, this saying " sniper waiting in a tree" is so correct , you can see price moving toward your zone.

This stuff is so cool

Warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #6,598
  • Jan 7, 2010 4:10pm Jan 7, 2010 4:10pm
[quote=kulu;3348311]I wasn't asking him about the trade, I showed him my chart before the price got to the zone and then I said I didn't understand why he had 134 on there.

Hey Kulu, thx for the reply.
Not picking an argument, but you can see why i'm a sceptic??
The 134 was 20 pips above you, which had been called an hour earlier, but in the interest of fairness, i believe you.
Hey, lets trade live calls on PM, that will be good. It's a different way of trading, i'm still trying to understand it, but it's very profitable, by the look of it. I only trade Daily, but beginning to understand 4hr.
Gd luck to you bro, the fact you answered tells me you are an allright geezer!!
  • #6,599
  • Jan 7, 2010 4:47pm Jan 7, 2010 4:47pm
Quoting bigwal
Hi Bob,

Pulled up some information from the guy you mentioned, looks very informative, lets see what Chris makes of it.

Half the battle of teaching or informing people is the ability to get the information across in bite size easy to digest sections, Chris is very good at this, hence the popular thread.

warren
I agree 100%. I feel Chris is a natural teacher.
May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
  • #6,600
  • Jan 7, 2010 5:52pm Jan 7, 2010 5:52pm
This is directed at kulu or anyone else knowledgeable of Seiden's approach:

I had a look at two of Sam Seiden's vids and I'll be watching the rest of them for sure.

Something struck me though, Let's assume that we have a good pin bar at a supply zone. Aren't we, according to Sam's thinking, making a breakout trade rather than a reversal entry?

And even worse, waiting for the break of the pin bar, isn't that the same as selling when price has already moved down? I'm thinking that the retest to enter on for a reversal entry often happens during the formation of the pin bar.

I just watched two of the vids, but I get the impression that Sam doesn't care much about reversal formations or any candle formations at all, just the areas. Am I right thinking he uses a "touch trade" approach?
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