TSF Mavin

TAD Mavin signaled a buy at 146.96 at the close of the 2:30 GMT bar. The order executed shortly after. I am now waiting the follow through.

Why did I put TAD... I meant TSF Mavin... Must be cause I was typing on my phone.

Anyway, ANOTHER WINNER tonight! Wasn't actually at the computer but it seems to have been sometime since the top of this hour. I'll probably post a chart in my morning. That's my best time to do that. I'm done for the night... Time for some quality family time!!

Thanks for your advice, will try this system.

Chart from tonight, 6 January 2010. Pretty straight forward trade today.

Thanks for your interest TipTop. Hope you find ways to make it work for you. And please do report back what you discover along the way.

Sure i will, hope it work for every body

Here's another example from 7 December 2009. This is another case where the original order following the first fully qualified bar never triggered. A bit later we see that another fully qualified bar forms with a better entry price. We say "better" because the method tells us to expect the market to move down, and the next qualified bar completes allowing us to change/move our order to a higher price, meaning if it triggers we'll be in and out sooner.

This one is particularly good because the retracement the market experienced gives us enough space to get in and get out before price returns to the support area that succeeded in turning it up last time. I do get a bit squeemish when a follow on qualifying bar forms on the opposite side of the 20 EMA, but it certainly worked out in this case.

5 January 2010... No, the method doesn't always win. Here is a loser that occured just yesterday.

Under inspection, in this case TSF Mavin got us into a sell position a bit too early. The market corrected, easily taking out the stop loss. But you will note that in this case the TSF setup never "dequalified"... The TSF 19 remained the lowest TSF and below the 20 EMA through the whole correction. The correction was a pretty strong move that extended over a fair bit of time. For the TSF to have remained bearish through all of that says something about the strength of the real sentiment of the market. So what I did was to continue to watch for an opportunity and reasons to take a new sell position. At 7:30 am GMT the market completes a bearish outside bar (the red bar completely engulfs the previous blue bar), and that bearish bar is a fully qualified TSF Mavin signal bar. I would have very comfortably entered a new sell order just below that bar.

Because this is a demo account and I'm just fooling around I probably would have doubled my order size for that order. If it filled (which it would have) I would have set a take profit target of 30 pips in this case because I'd be hoping I can close with my standard 2.6% before price encounters the line of support it earlier failed to penatrate. This approach is not part of this method. If price was behaving differently I would have reacted differently.

My point is that the TSF Mavin method I presented here failed to keep me from getting in at the wrong time. So I'm hoping that some of you might help find a logical rule that might better control this kind of thing. But my further point is, while many days the method scores an easy no brainer win, occasionally it throws you a loser. Very often on the losing days, however, it is possible to end up a winner by using other techniques. It all depends on your knowledge level, abilities, experience, and willingness to take a risk. But most of the time, (everyday since 27 October 2009) I have been a winner by the end of the trading day. In back testing, I'm sure I'll find some that just won't work. I am in the process of documenting what the method would have traded here for all to see. But I am open for suggestions. So feel free to pipe in or ask a question.

TAD Mavin method just posted a fully qualified sell signal at the close of the 30 minute GJ 1am GMT bar. Order is in place waiting to trigger.

Actually, one of the things I learned in reviewing this method is that trades placed on the Pounds rate announcement day have a higher probability of not working out. My trade is in place though and I like where it is relative to local support and resistance. So I'm going to hang out with it since this is just a demo account. If it were real money I'd probably reconsider.

Position filled! Short at 147.95.

Take profit achieved!

Turned out to be a very simple day. I'm done for today. Family time coming up. That was another 2.6% gain for the account. I hope to post a picture of today's trade before going to bed in a few hours.

Chart for the 7 January 2010 trade described above. Doesn't get much easier than today's trade. It happens like this 2 or 3 times a month, I think.

Just a reminder that even bars (open = close) are valid (as in the chart above) as long as all other criteria are met.

Nice trade. According to your rules, you stated that the tsf 19 must be below the other tsfs and under the 20ema. And that the candle must close below or even with the tsf 19. I didn't see any of these occur on that trade. Did I miss something? I tried your method two days ago, and it worked well.

Another "Blast from the Past"... 8 December 2009. I'll keep posting these historical charts. I see people are viewing the thread but not commenting. I presume these are helpful to others. I know it is helpful to me too. I'm slowly building a fully documented historical review that everyone can see.

Again, my hope is that some kind of pattern will be revealed to myself or by others, or someone finds some other addition to the system that further improves it.

You will see there are many, many days when a lot of pips are left on the table. If only I could find a reliable way to decide to let it run.... Oh well.

From my posts some may be thinking it "wins all the time"... except for yesterday I haven't shown any losers. Well, they are out there, and some months have a fair share. But I'm not holding back. I'll post them as they come up as I work my way back. And I'll try to explain what my follow on approach was (when I actually traded), or would have been (prior to 28 October, when I started forward testing).

I'm off to bed now... Have a good one everybody.

Sorry for the confusion and thanks for the question.

TSF19 must be below other TSFs for a sell. AND it must be below the 20 EMA. AND the fully qualified bar must be down too (but it doesn't have to be below the TSF19... It just has to agree in direction with the trade... or it can be open=close, but it can't be bullish.)

Opposite conditions for a buy.

Hope that helps. If not I'll reply in the morning.

Got it!!! Thanks.

Ok now we got it!

Here is another past chart. This one is for 9 December 2009. For those of you waiting to see another loss, 10 December 2009 will be one of those. I expect to get that chart up much later today (or in the morning for many of you in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East). For the record though, I'll say that a quick review of charts from 1 December shows that the 10th is the only loss that I've not provided a chart for... And I will not be counting or posting the charts for Christmas and New Years weeks as they can get whacky (Christmas week had 3 losers I think, and New Years week as all easy winners -- But I could never advise trading during that time).

So the "official" record since 1 December (minus 2 weeks) is 15 wins and 2 losses (17 trading days not including Sundays).

Not accounting for my follow-up trades which are not part of the method, but which did allow me to turn those losing days into winners; with a risk/reward of 2.55/1 at 51 pips risked to gain 20 pips daily... Net pips are 198 so far, or 11.6 pips per day. That's a pretty good run for this method (as in, there are poorer performing streaches, so don't go crazy about this) -- but I do hope to make it better somehow. I've seen months with no losing trades, and months with 4 or 5 (which can kill the method). I hope to get it all documented in this thread though. And at some point I might go live with this if I convince myself that I can tolerate the risk.

Have a successful trading day everybody.