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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #211,261
  • Jan 6, 2010 5:16pm Jan 6, 2010 5:16pm
I'm thinking slightly above 149.00 for the next leg up followed by another healthy retrace (where we add longs again).
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  • #211,262
  • Jan 6, 2010 5:19pm Jan 6, 2010 5:19pm
im that sure of gbp/jpy to go long.. if i can get a 100k$ bank loan tomoorw with 50% interest, i wont think twice to borrow it and put it in my fx account and payed them back in 30 days with the interest, and ill have my odd 50/60k $

{i did try but declined}
  • #211,263
  • Jan 6, 2010 5:27pm Jan 6, 2010 5:27pm
Quoting Gucc
im that sure of gbp/jpy to go long.. if i can get a 100k$ bank loan tomoorw with 50% interest, i wont think twice to borrow it and put it in my fx account and payed them back in 30 days with the interest, and ill have my odd 50/60k $

{i did try but declined}
lol, love it.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #211,264
  • Jan 6, 2010 5:33pm Jan 6, 2010 5:33pm
Well I just got long 147.765.. price smack inbetween the 50 and 62 EMA..

If were trending up as could be the case, a bounce off the 50 EMA is a good place to get in.

I convinced myself yesterday that price was going lower, now putting my concieved bias behind me and trusting my method, hopefully pays off..

60 pip SL..

Cheers
  • #211,265
  • Jan 6, 2010 5:45pm Jan 6, 2010 5:45pm
geppy,,you sounds like a aggresive player ..

is 4 std lots heavy for you with a acc balance of 24k ..stoploss at 145.90.approx. 200 pips ..equals 8k loss..bring the acc back to 16k ?..

how do you mannaged it?

my limit or my stoploss will be hit,, at 145 or 153 .. if it go to 153 its a 20k jump ,if not its back to sqaure one.. ?

is it worth it ?
  • #211,266
  • Jan 6, 2010 6:18pm Jan 6, 2010 6:18pm
I'm bullish on GY heading past NY's high of 148.4; in fact had a buy that was nicely profitable when it got there, didn't close, was then going to catch it on the retest but it did not do it properly yet, hence I feel it will surpass it hopefully as part of London's festivities. In the meantime, have picked up a short too (my broker allows!), as I expect Asia to range it and likely touch the pivot @ 147.4ish. Will also scalp Asia's 40-60 pip range. Am also posting a M1 chart which I find invaluable to bottom/top pick for the Asia session as GY does it's traditional ranging.
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  • #211,267
  • Jan 6, 2010 6:21pm Jan 6, 2010 6:21pm
149.30 is the next target. . . would look to take some off there!
  • #211,268
  • Jan 6, 2010 6:25pm Jan 6, 2010 6:25pm
Quoting Beljevina
I'm bullish on GY heading past NY's high of 148.4; in fact had a buy that was nicely profitable when it got there, didn't close, was then going to catch it on the retest but it did not do it properly yet, hence I feel it will surpass it hopefully as part of...
price has consolidated above 55 ema at 147.70/65 area for 7hrs why would it retreat back to 147.40 when we already tested 147.15 area. . .

Also a break below 55 ema with a 1hr close would mean reversal - I think we tested upper resistance since we've already tested LTL and daily gann and held. . .

If we get a 1hr close above 148.10 then 149.30 is a given. . .

4hr divergence should also play out before we see a major correction

weekly swing is a touch of 152 or slightly higher
  • #211,269
  • Jan 6, 2010 6:25pm Jan 6, 2010 6:25pm
Quoting quecee5
149.30 is the next target. . . would look to take some off there!
quecee is da man

im long from 147.86 with stop at +1 so im HOPING we dont go back below 148 now. if i get stopped at +1 im gonna cry.
  • #211,270
  • Jan 6, 2010 6:25pm Jan 6, 2010 6:25pm
Quoting Cdawg
Well I just got long 147.765.. price smack inbetween the 50 and 62 EMA..

If were trending up as could be the case, a bounce off the 50 EMA is a good place to get in.

I convinced myself yesterday that price was going lower, now putting my concieved bias behind me and trusting my method, hopefully pays off..

60 pip SL..

Cheers
Set to BE now.. let go!!
  • #211,271
  • Jan 6, 2010 6:43pm Jan 6, 2010 6:43pm
Quoting quecee5
price has consolidated above 55 ema at 147.70/65 area for 7hrs why would it retreat back to 147.40 when we already tested 147.15 area. . .
147.4 is a pivot, and I've found that the Asia session has PA that touches it at least 7 out of 10 sessions. As I write, GY's being remarkably bullish and if it passes NY's high, my short is gone (but long is on on on and 3x in size)
Quecee, Also want to note that your diligent, timed & well summarized inputs to this thread are invaluable!

I see it's just hit 148.28 - perhaps this is the retest we didn't see before NY's close. My harmonic indi just splashed up this view, which is kind of uncanny should it play out, bearing in mind though the indi has low accuracy on predicting the triangle bottoms & tops.
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  • #211,272
  • Jan 6, 2010 6:47pm Jan 6, 2010 6:47pm
Quoting quecee5
149.30 is the next target. . . would look to take some off there!

Buy on the dip
  • #211,273
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:00pm Jan 6, 2010 7:00pm
Quoting quecee5

If we get a 1hr close above 148.10 then 149.30 is a given. . .
damnit man, 1h closed on my platform at 148.09
  • #211,274
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:18pm Jan 6, 2010 7:18pm
Quoting Gucc
geppy,,you sounds like a aggresive player ..

is 4 std lots heavy for you with a acc balance of 24k ..stoploss at 145.90.approx. 200 pips ..equals 8k loss..bring the acc back to 16k ?..

how do you mannaged it?

my limit or my stoploss will be hit,, at 145 or 153 .. if it go to 153 its a 20k jump ,if not its back to sqaure one.. ?

is it worth it ?
Firstly, yes I'm an aggressive player. However, I'm not playing with that big of an account yet as I'm still getting back in the game after a year or so of not trading.

Secondly, yes I think you're position is a bit aggressive. You're stop is way too large right now. I think a stop somewhere around 146.85 is more than enough. Also, I would take that ratio of position size to account balance with a smaller account, but not an account of 24k. I would probably cut it in half (2 standards) and still consider that pretty aggressive even with the new stop loss level I gave you which is almost 100 pips higher.

Another thing to think about is where are you long from? Are you already in profit? If so, how much? If you get 50-100 pips in profit take the risk off the table. Put your stop at break even or slightly above and let her ride.

This game is all about preservation of capital. Yes, I understand it's tempting to nearly double your account in one trade. But these trades... there are opportunities like this every week and often several times a week. If you lose 33% of your capital, it's really not worth it. You want to stay alive and healthy with a good sized account all the time because when that really big trade comes you WILL easily double your account with much less risk. Never let yourself think this opportunity is the only one or if you miss this trade you have to beat yourself up.

I shorted heavily around 150.30 area and rode it down to 149.30. I made a good chunk of change for the size of my account. Then, the pair dropped another 350 pips or so... I could have made 3.5 more "good chunks of change" but I didn't let it bother me. I was happy with what I made and I was focused on the NEXT trade, not the one I didn't squeeze all I could out of. Of course, I'll always be looking to maximize my winners and limit my losers, but you can't let it affect you emotionally because that's when you'll lose.

Hope that helps.
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  • #211,275
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:37pm Jan 6, 2010 7:37pm
i'm sick of this bitch not doing anything. 147 or 148. breakout already...damn!!!
  • #211,276
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:48pm Jan 6, 2010 7:48pm
Quoting Beljevina
147.4 is a pivot, and I've found that the Asia session has PA that touches it at least 7 out of 10 sessions. As I write, GY's being remarkably bullish and if it passes NY's high, my short is gone (but long is on on on and 3x in size)
Quecee, Also want to note that your diligent, timed & well summarized inputs to this thread are invaluable!

I see it's just hit 148.28 - perhaps this is the retest we didn't see before NY's close. My harmonic indi just splashed up this view, which is kind of uncanny should it play out, bearing in mind though the indi...
I agree with a test of daily pivot perhaps being in the cards or even weekly support for that matter at 147.22 area before we take a trip to 149 area and higher. . .

Asia can't seem to overcome buyers up above so it may need to regroup with more momentum from that pivot point. . .

Should be solid support at 147.22 and 146.60 area. . . However, if we take out this weeks low then forget about longs. . .

But if you look at the 4hr chart we are gaining momentum for a nice move up at least 300 pips or greater. . .

So agree that we may need to relieve the dn pressure on the 1hr chart before we see a move higher. . .

I may look to add more longs on there if/when I see it base above 148 or 147. . . so our range for the next couple hours could be 147-148.20 area

Btw - thanks for the kind words
  • #211,277
  • Jan 6, 2010 8:14pm Jan 6, 2010 8:14pm
i need a place where i can buy again but kinda not sure but 4hrs gj still give a buy signal do we close doji on previous candle but when we have wm2-3 on same bar it's a very strong signal...i may buy 147.05-15..presently on congestion 1hr
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #211,278
  • Jan 6, 2010 8:42pm Jan 6, 2010 8:42pm
Quoting donfriday
i need a place where i can buy again but kinda not sure but 4hrs gj still give a buy signal do we close doji on previous candle but when we have wm2-3 on same bar it's a very strong signal...i may buy 147.05-15..presently on congestion 1hr
very well stated!

Asia almost always test the low or near the low. . . and the 1hr chart needs to be relieved before the 4hr chart plays out IMO. . . I was hoping we would base above 148.09 but we never got a 1hr close above that area. ..
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  • #211,279
  • Jan 6, 2010 8:42pm Jan 6, 2010 8:42pm
gj30m & gj15m
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  • #211,280
  • Jan 6, 2010 9:15pm Jan 6, 2010 9:15pm
it so boring market today, maybe time go sleep, coming back before new
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