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  • #4,721
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:05am Jan 6, 2010 7:05am
Quoting juhanimi
Maybe this is better picture.
from a larger view this looks to me like a bearflag signaling continuation.
  • #4,722
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:07am Jan 6, 2010 7:07am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
from a larger view this looks to me like a bearflag signaling continuation.
Yes, it looks like bearish flag, but how can I see, that it is distribution?
  • #4,723
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:07am Jan 6, 2010 7:07am
A few more...

Gez
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Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #4,724
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:10am Jan 6, 2010 7:10am
Quoting juhanimi
Yes, it looks like bearish flag, but how can I see, that it is distribution?
i wouldnt throw around with those terminologies every time as soon as market stalls. at the tops its distributed here, at the lows ist accumulated. we do not care what it exactly is since this comes to guessing. even if all signs are in place, it might just go the other way. we have no 101% solution here, we have an edge to put the odds in our favor with high accuracy, if used properly.

we look to short near the highs on valid sginals and go long near the lows.

the rest, we do not care about, except we are ultra swingtraders.
  • #4,725
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:11am Jan 6, 2010 7:11am
Quoting juhanimi
EUH4, accumalation or distribution?
market is at the area of previous accumulation which was in August 2009. So it is resonalbe to expect stopping volume on this level.

There are signs of buying again at the same area, plus distribution bars had no effect, distribution bars failed in my opinion.

I lean to the long side until accumulation attempt fails or distribution starts again with greater success.
  • #4,726
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:12am Jan 6, 2010 7:12am
I dont think smart money are guessing, I think they know what is happening. I want to know, how they know. Then I am smart money.
  • #4,727
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:14am Jan 6, 2010 7:14am
Quoting juhanimi
I dont think smart money are guessing, I think they know what is happening. I want to know, how they know. Then I am smart money.
wash, rinse & repeat.

begin from page 1 of this thread and try to understand the principles and WHAT we are tracking, otherwise you are the idiot money (no offense)
  • #4,728
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:14am Jan 6, 2010 7:14am
Quoting denbur
market is at the area of previous accumulation which was in August 2009. So it is resonalbe to expect stopping volume on this level.

There are signs of buying again at the same area, plus distribution bars had no effect, distribution bars failed in my opinion.

I lean to the long side until accumulation attempt fails or distribution starts again with greater success.
Thank You, here is some VSA analysis about this situation. Any more signs?
  • #4,729
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:19am Jan 6, 2010 7:19am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
wash, rinse & repeat.

begin from page 1 of this thread and try to understand the principles and WHAT we are tracking, otherwise you are the idiot money (no offense)
Well, I am trying to understand, thats why I ask these questions and if You can add some info to things WHAT I want to understand, I am happy to take that.
  • #4,730
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:36am Jan 6, 2010 7:36am
Quoting juhanimi
Thank You, here is some VSA analysis about this situation. Any more signs?
It is very hard to tell anyone what your thoughts are on the market because conditions will change after you gave your opinion. Giving an opinion is wrong by itself because now there is attachment to your own opinion and you start trading your opinion and not the market.

In my opinion what you are looking for is certainty. I doubt you will ever find it in the markets
  • #4,731
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:40am Jan 6, 2010 7:40am
Quoting denbur
It is very hard to tell anyone what your thoughts are on the market because conditions will change after you gave your opinion. Giving an opinion is wrong by itself because now there is attachment to your own opinion and you start trading your opinion and not the market.

In my opinion what you are looking for is certainty. I doubt you will ever find it in the markets
How "smart money" knows, that it is distribution or accumalation?
You think they are guessing?
  • #4,732
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:53am Jan 6, 2010 7:53am
Your missing it.....

More than knowing it, SM creates it.

Your question is like asking an artist. "How do you know what color the water will be?" before they have begun to paint. It will be the color they make it.

Not likely you have the power to cause the artist to make the water red, nor the capital to shape the markets. Best you can hope for is to follow SM's actions, by knowing that they are doing something and learning what that means.

BR

Quoting juhanimi
How "smart money" knows, that it is distribution or accumalation?
You think they are guessing?
  • #4,733
  • Jan 6, 2010 7:57am Jan 6, 2010 7:57am
Quoting juhanimi
How "smart money" knows, that it is distribution or accumalation?
You think they are guessing?
every trading group has their own reason to initiate a trade.

lets say a hedger decides to initiate a trade and buy euro. his volume is so big that he absorbs most of the supply and stops the down move. now, interesting thing is that he does not have to liquidate as retail traders do. most of the rules does not apply to big hedgers. that mean liquidation pressure of his Long position is not present plus supply was removed. that action starts attracting other group of traders that can have access to trading desks and know what is going on. Then other group of traders notice that price action and make their own best educated guess on what is going on in the market.

every one makes his own best guess on what is going on in the market. big traders also has losing trades.

There are few groups like hedgers that has advantage against others, then comes those who have eyes and ears on several trading desks, then comes those that mastered the art of trading.

there is no certain way to tell beforehand if your educated guess is right or wrong. Some trading groups has advantage of having access to data that we dont have and some have privilege by trading heavily.

it is very hard to trade if you are not comfortable with "not knowing for sure" what is going on
  • #4,734
  • Jan 6, 2010 8:12am Jan 6, 2010 8:12am
hey Dr G you forgot one book in that list ... the best book of all time :

How to take your account from 10 k to zero in under a week by Malcolmb14



Quoting Dr.Geppynius
have not yet checked the videos, but i think sebastian will also come to speech. i stumbled across sebastian years ago at the elitetrader forum and his views improved my vsa trading heavily. on a higher tf basis, my approach and preferred setups are partially similar.

never stop reading, watching and searching for information until you die.
i really like tom's book " the undeclared secrets...." and prefer it to...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #4,735
  • Jan 6, 2010 8:15am Jan 6, 2010 8:15am
Quoting malcolmb14
hey Dr G you forgot one book in that list ... the best book of all time :

How to take your account from 10 k to zero in under a week by Malcolmb14

i will release my book earlier

it is called "how to fuckitupandlegit in one trade"
  • #4,736
  • Jan 6, 2010 8:22am Jan 6, 2010 8:22am
So, nobody knows what phase is going on in EUH4.
Okey, thanks anyway.
  • #4,737
  • Jan 6, 2010 8:27am Jan 6, 2010 8:27am
Quoting Big1red9
Your missing it.....

More than knowing it, SM creates it.


BR
So, You think smart money is one person, or syndicate and they are sending emails all in syndicate like: hi all, now we are selling!!!

Do You have any idea how huge forex market is?
  • #4,738
  • Jan 6, 2010 8:34am Jan 6, 2010 8:34am
No it is not one.

Within those groups large enough to shape markets, they have a pecking order. No doubt watch each other and must at times fight it out at time respect the lead being taken.

In the end it is either 1 big enough to carry out the plan or a number of them working together.

Think of an orchestra. They together create the music.

Quoting juhanimi
So, You think smart money is one person, or syndicate and they are sending emails all in syndicate like: hi all, now we are selling!!!

Do You have any idea how huge forex market is?
  • #4,739
  • Jan 6, 2010 8:37am Jan 6, 2010 8:37am
Yes, they play together, and they have notes.

Can You read notes on EU H4, is it accumalation or distribution?
  • #4,740
  • Jan 6, 2010 8:52am Jan 6, 2010 8:52am
Is it true.
You have written here over 300 pages about VSA, and nobody knows, when it is accumalation or distribution?
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