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GbpUsd 5 min breakout

  • #341
  • Jan 4, 2010 11:37pm Jan 4, 2010 11:37pm
Hi,
i am only a beginner in Forex, but i am sure that some of the expert can guide us to one or some oscillators that can predict the movement of the trend;
this way, we can place only one pending trade, or we can place two, but we add extra buffer to the less probable one.
its just a though, any idea guys???
happy pips all
  • #342
  • Jan 5, 2010 2:12am Jan 5, 2010 2:12am
Home and hosed by 8.05,niiiiiiiiice
  • #343
  • Jan 5, 2010 2:50am Jan 5, 2010 2:50am
Quoting max pips
Sorry but this data is a waste of time. The number of pips won or lost is not important. You would be better of displaying this data as units. A win = +1, a double win +2, a loss -1. Each single win or loss is the same value so this would show the information much more clearly. Otherwise one win of 100 pips could hide 5 losses of 20.

max

Hi Max,

yeah I get your point. I have that info for the period mentioned and can post it here if its useful to anyone. However would I be right in saying that a loss would be -3 as trade size would be doubled after false breakout. The way I see it is there are 5 possible outcomes from the daily trade. If we treat each box size as 1 unit, the max loss of three times the size of our box represents 2% of account, the possible results are

1st win = 1 (.666%)
2nd win = 1a(.666%)
both win = 2 (1.333%)
1stwin 2nd loss = 0
loss = -3 (2%)

Does this make sense and can you confirm if this is what you mean......
  • #344
  • Jan 5, 2010 3:01am Jan 5, 2010 3:01am
yep thats more like it. Or just round numbers. Day 1: up 2, day 2: down 3: day 3:0 etc. Therefore June +6, July +12 etc

It just shows how profitable the system really is, then people can judge how much to risk accordingly. Also how bad is the worst run, so if you had three days of losing two a day, that would be losing 9 units.

This is how I evaluate whether a system is worth further study.

max
Gravity goes both ways in forex...
  • #345
  • Jan 5, 2010 3:07am Jan 5, 2010 3:07am
Quoting arrowloopboy
Home and hosed by 8.05,niiiiiiiiice
Hi Arrow,

Just so we're on the same page here..how did you manage to close out at 8.05am. according to my charts the trade would't have closed until 8.25am. I enter slightly different to Cains method as I wait for the candle to close outside the box, however I still managed to bank 55 pips this morning for my first live trade using this method..... Was your entry point at 1.6107 and TP at 1.6052....(+55 pips) I would just like to be sure that I am using the same times as everyone else...

Blinkers...............
  • #346
  • Jan 5, 2010 3:35am Jan 5, 2010 3:35am
Quoting max pips
yep thats more like it. Or just round numbers. Day 1: up 2, day 2: down 3: day 3:0 etc. Therefore June +6, July +12 etc

It just shows how profitable the system really is, then people can judge how much to risk accordingly. Also how bad is the worst run, so if you had three days of losing two a day, that would be losing 9 units.

This is how I evaluate whether a system is worth further study.

max
Yeah I get you mate... I will post results in that format up here in a few minutes for the period discussed and will get working on all of 08 and 09 then..
  • #347
  • Jan 5, 2010 4:02am Jan 5, 2010 4:02am
Hi Guys,

The results below are only from manual/visual backtest for the period Feb 08 to Aug 08. There was one trade where the box size was too large (over 80 pips) to allow for a breakout so I have recorded this as an NT (no trade) day. The format is as follows,

1 = 1st win
1a= 2nd win
2 = both win
0 = breakeven
-3= loss


Feb 1st- Feb 29th 08.

1a, 1, 1a, 1, 1, 1a, 0, 1a, -3, -3, 1a, 1a, 2, -3, 1, 1, 1a, -3, 2, 2, 1a.
Feb = +6


Mar 3rd - Mar 31st 08.

0, -3, 2, 1a, 1a, 1a, 0, 1a, 1, 2, 2, 1, 1a, 0, 1, 0, 1a, -3, 1a, 1, 0.
Mar = + 11

Apr 1st - Apr 30th 08

1a, 1, 2, 2, -3, 1, 1, 1a, -3, 1, 1, 1, 1a, -3, 1, 1a, -3, -3, 1a, 1a, 1, 1,
Apr = + 4

May 1st - May 30th 08
-3, -3, 1a, 0, 1, 1a, N/T, 1, -3, 0, -3, -3, 1a, 1, 1a, -3, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1a, 0.
May = -3

June 2nd - June 30th 08

1, 1, 1, -3, -3, 2, 1, 1a, 1, 0, -3, -3, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, -3, -3, 0, 1a.
June = -6

July 1st- July 31st 08
0, 1a, -3, 1, 0, 1a, 2, 1a, 1, -3, 1, 2, 1a, 1, 1a, 2, 1, 1, 1a, -3, 1a, 0, 1.
July = + 11

August 1st - Aug 29th 08
1, 1, 1, 1a, 2, 1, 1a, 0, 2, 1, 0, 1a, 1a, 1, -3, 1, 1, -3, -3, -3, 1.

Aug = + 5

Hope this info is of help to you guys and bear in mind that I did not take into account the spread.... Also I think the results would be much improved if we only entered or stopped ourselves out manually after candle close, however this is just from observation and would need to be back tested....
  • #348
  • Jan 5, 2010 4:26am Jan 5, 2010 4:26am
So would I be correct in saying that if you started in Feb with a 10,000 account and risked 3% per trade/day, and based on the figures above where,
1 = 1% of account
2 = 2% of account
3 = 3% of account,

then,

10,000 Feb +6
10,600 Mar +11
11,792 Apr +4
12,232 May -3
11,865 June -6
11,153 July +11
12,379 Aug + 5

12, 998

Account size would grow 30% in 7 months...

Am I on the right track here Max?????
  • #349
  • Jan 5, 2010 4:29am Jan 5, 2010 4:29am
Hi,

I'm thinking of the fact that in the original system, we don't close pending orders until the second day at 23. Why is this? And have anyone tried using another closing time, i.e. just before the end of the day?


Archie
  • #350
  • Jan 5, 2010 1:42pm Jan 5, 2010 1:42pm
Quoting fxblinkers
Hi Guys,

The results below are only from manual/visual backtest for the period Feb 08 to Aug 08. There was one trade where the box size was too large (over 80 pips) to allow for a breakout so I have recorded this as an NT (no trade) day. The format is as follows,

1 = 1st win
1a= 2nd win
2 = both win
0 = breakeven
-3= loss


Feb 1st- Feb 29th 08.

1a, 1, 1a, 1, 1, 1a, 0, 1a, -3, -3, 1a, 1a, 2, -3, 1, 1, 1a, -3, 2, 2, 1a.
Feb = +6


Mar 3rd - Mar 31st 08.

0, -3, 2, 1a, 1a, 1a, 0, 1a, 1, 2, 2, 1, 1a, 0, 1, 0, 1a, -3, 1a, 1, 0.
Mar = + 11...

Hey thanks for this.

Just so I'm clear tho is the following correct:-

1 = win first trade and no second trade.
1a = no first trade, win second trade.
2 = win first win second.
0 = lose first trade, win second trade.
-3 = lose first, lose second.

Sorry for the questions, thanks pal.
  • #351
  • Jan 5, 2010 2:41pm Jan 5, 2010 2:41pm
No not quite mate...

See below...

1 = win first trade and no second trade.
Correct

1a = no first trade, win second trade.
Wrong - Lose first trade, double up and win second trade

2 = win first win second.
Correct

0 = lose first trade, win second trade.
Wrong -win first trade and lose second trade

-3 = lose first, lose second.
Correct.......

Hope this helps.....
  • #352
  • Jan 5, 2010 4:17pm Jan 5, 2010 4:17pm
Ok, color me stoopid...exactly what is the "8.00 candle" and what is the "8.10 candle"? The way it is written makes no sense. Can someone help me understand this?
Warren
  • #353
  • Jan 6, 2010 1:47am Jan 6, 2010 1:47am
Quoting fxblinkers
Hi Arrow,

Just so we're on the same page here..how did you manage to close out at 8.05am. according to my charts the trade would't have closed until 8.25am. I enter slightly different to Cains method as I wait for the candle to close outside the box, however I still managed to bank 55 pips this morning for my first live trade using this method..... Was your entry point at 1.6107 and TP at 1.6052....(+55 pips) I would just like to be sure that I am using the same times as everyone else...

Blinkers...............
Hi Fx,

My entries were @ 1.6163 and1.6121,
On a 5 min chart ,i'm drawing a line under the 7-7.05 candle and over the 7.05 and 7.10 candle,then adding my buffers.
If it were a 10m chart,my lines would be at the start and finish of the 7.00 candle(plus buffers).
This is the way i understood it anyway,maybe i'm wrong.

Arrow
  • #354
  • Jan 6, 2010 1:50am Jan 6, 2010 1:50am
Quoting wseyle
Ok, color me stoopid...exactly what is the "8.00 candle" and what is the "8.10 candle"? The way it is written makes no sense. Can someone help me understand this?
Warren
Warren,Its time its referring to,bring up a 5 minute chart,its the candles at 8 o clock and 8.10 thats being referred to.

Hope this helps,

Regards, Arrow
  • #355
  • Jan 6, 2010 2:34am Jan 6, 2010 2:34am
Quoting arrowloopboy
Hi Fx,

My entries were @ 1.6163 and1.6121,
On a 5 min chart ,i'm drawing a line under the 7-7.05 candle and over the 7.05 and 7.10 candle,then adding my buffers.
If it were a 10m chart,my lines would be at the start and finish of the 7.00 candle(plus buffers).
This is the way i understood it anyway,maybe i'm wrong.

Arrow

I'm not 100% sure I correct either but I have been using the next candle also (7.10-7.15) So my entries for yesterday would have been 1.6162 (long) and 1.6107 (short) incl buffer.. I am using an indicator to drew my box daily and it matched with other peoples entries back in December so maybe Cain could shed some light on this one for us... Results shouldn't differ that much but at least I get an extra 5 min in bed......... another 39 pips in the bag this morning.... Entered at 993 and exit at 035..happy days..only 2nd day live but 2 out of 2 so far....
  • #356
  • Edited 3:14am Jan 6, 2010 3:12am | Edited 3:14am
Quoting fxblinkers
I'm not 100% sure I correct either but I have been using the next candle also (7.10-7.15) So my entries for yesterday would have been 1.6162 (long) and 1.6107 (short) incl buffer..
blinkers ... I use three candles like you, but my entries were 1.6166 and 1.6107 ... Cain said in post #9 to add the spread when you go long
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jan5.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #357
  • Jan 6, 2010 3:26am Jan 6, 2010 3:26am
Quoting tbardolph
blinkers ... I use three candles like you, but my entries were 1.6166 and 1.6107 ... Cain said in post #9 to add the spread when you go long
I was just giving my box size.. I use slightly different rules than Cains insofar as I wait for a 5 min candle close above/below box before entry. I have found that this filters out alot of false breakouts and I also wait for a close of candle to stop out my trade. I don't actually place a fixed stop-loss and will close out a losing trade after the candle closes outside the opposite side of my breakout box. During my manual/visual backtesting I have found that doing this greatly improves my % wins so I reckon its worth the extra effort.... Have a look at this..you'll find that you give a few pips away here and there but you will more than compensate for them by avoiding many losing trades..it stacks up...IMHO..
  • #358
  • Jan 6, 2010 3:28am Jan 6, 2010 3:28am
By the way tbar... do you know where I can get the indi that you are using on your chart showing ADR and spread..its pretty handy eh!!!!
  • #359
  • Jan 6, 2010 3:32am Jan 6, 2010 3:32am
Quoting arrowloopboy
Hi Fx,

My entries were @ 1.6163 and1.6121,
On a 5 min chart ,i'm drawing a line under the 7-7.05 candle and over the 7.05 and 7.10 candle,then adding my buffers.Arrow
here's how mine looks using only 2 candles ... again, adding the spread made my long entry 1.6166 ... not sure which way is correct, 2 candles or 3 ... and haven't heard from Cain in a while ... what's the general consensus, guys ... 2 or 3?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jan5.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #360
  • Jan 6, 2010 3:45am Jan 6, 2010 3:45am
Quoting fxblinkers
By the way tbar... the indi showing ADR and spread
it's 2 separate ones, actually ... and the default colors and position are a little different, but easily changed
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 ADR_no_sunday_bar.v1.mq4   6 KB | 208 downloads
File Type: mq4 Spread.mq4   3 KB | 202 downloads
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