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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #12,161
  • Jan 5, 2010 7:49pm Jan 5, 2010 7:49pm
bot L3 14357
  • #12,162
  • Jan 5, 2010 8:03pm Jan 5, 2010 8:03pm
sold L3 14367

position recap

long L1 14345, L2 14357
  • #12,163
  • Jan 5, 2010 8:21pm Jan 5, 2010 8:21pm
[quote=GEfx;3342256]I think fti has been up the longest, but I have been up for 17 hours so far. Time to shut off the charts, and agree that mental readiness is key. Thanks lilpip.[/quote

y'all had some fun and learned a bit during the mini marathon.
  • #12,164
  • Jan 5, 2010 8:21pm Jan 5, 2010 8:21pm
Quoting fti
sold L3 14367

position recap

long L1 14345, L2 14357
How is it possible to do that solely looking at a chart? Looking forward to the exit.

Leon
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #12,165
  • Jan 5, 2010 8:30pm Jan 5, 2010 8:30pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
How is it possible to do that solely looking at a chart? Looking forward to the exit.

Leon
I dont understand the question.
Are you asking "how is it possible to buy and sell looking at a chart ?

maybe I need to get some sleep to.
  • #12,166
  • Jan 5, 2010 8:33pm Jan 5, 2010 8:33pm
Quoting lilpip
I dont understand the question.
Are you asking "how is it possible to buy and sell looking at a chart ?

maybe I need to get some sleep to.

I think Leon questions the ability to add going into the move without the exit level being known.
  • #12,167
  • Jan 5, 2010 8:38pm Jan 5, 2010 8:38pm
Quoting lilpip
On hold for a year, I dont think people are ready for it just yet.
I think gold and silver has caught the attention of alot of people but they still dont realize the weak dollar yet.

Im in a educating process trying to bring awareness to the value of aquiring silver while affordable for everyone.

This is one avenue @ silversnowball.com/2144.

I buy 1 coin a month while encouraging others to do the same while eventually recieving silver at no cost because of the programs set up.

Starting out I...
your project is a pretty ambitious one, I am impressed by your efforts though. I am not qualified to comment on the future of the dollar, but I am optimistic.

In God We Trust !!

bot 4352
  • #12,168
  • Jan 5, 2010 8:38pm Jan 5, 2010 8:38pm
Quoting lilpip
I dont understand the question.
Are you asking "how is it possible to buy and sell looking at a chart ?

maybe I need to get some sleep to.
Well, I was trying to prompt an explanation of why those trades were made. By popular trading standards were in a hindsight downtrend.

Just trying to learn a little.

Leon
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #12,169
  • Jan 5, 2010 8:47pm Jan 5, 2010 8:47pm
Quoting auxesis
I think Leon questions the ability to add going into the move without the exit level being known.
we all wrestle with that thats why were here.

comes with experience and familiarity with area , range , spiral etc.
  • #12,170
  • Jan 5, 2010 8:50pm Jan 5, 2010 8:50pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Well, I was trying to prompt an explanation of why those trades were made. By popular trading standards were in a hindsight downtrend.

Just trying to learn a little.

Leon
Id say for starters mm, session, steel balls
  • #12,171
  • Jan 5, 2010 8:55pm Jan 5, 2010 8:55pm
note taken @ e/u 4369 and 4341.
hedged and watchen candle formation.
  • #12,172
  • Jan 5, 2010 9:08pm Jan 5, 2010 9:08pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
I am not qualified to comment on the future of the dollar, but I am optimistic.

In God We Trust !!

bot 4352
during the usd. decline the ave.fed.deficit a year for past 6 years was 300 billion.

It is now 300 billion every 2 months.
you tell me.

btw God is not partial.
  • #12,173
  • Jan 5, 2010 9:17pm Jan 5, 2010 9:17pm
Quoting fti
sold L3 14367

position recap

long L1 14345, L2 14357
u bot @ 14357 and sold @ 14367.....

U needa make positive 12 pips to earn 10 pips...(e.g. 1 pip spread for buy/sell)..
near 20% of ur winning cut by broker..Is it worth it???

Sonic
  • #12,174
  • Edited 9:28pm Jan 5, 2010 9:17pm | Edited 9:28pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Well, I was trying to prompt an explanation of why those trades were made. By popular trading standards were in a hindsight downtrend.

Just trying to learn a little.

Leon

May I share my 2 pips:

1. EU after falling off from 1.4483, the pace of fall has slowed (looking at the price moving sideway, or MA or channel moved within, or whatever technical tools you wish to use). This is to say the though the down trend still there, it is deteriorating.

2. This morning (Singapore time) Tokyo down move is deemed to be a stop sweeping, as seen from the lack of following through. This point toward the possibility of end of end trend.

3. So if we wish to capitalised on this bounce (or it can be developed into reversal), trial entry (scout, or L1 long @ 1.4345) is deployed. Further adjustment to added size and location is to be determined later. So are the exits.

4. The adjustments will depends on the price move that follows. Looking at the M5 chart, if there is strength (expanding candles, breaking resistance levels, etc) then add (L2&L3 @ 1.4357), keeping an eye on the next resistance level.

5. Depending on the trading time frame, adding can be deemed as building up a position gradually to anticipate price moves. Add a few time if chart terrain and trader's risk appetite allows.

6. Constantly looking at the price action for clue of strength and weakness (higher highs, lower lows, speed of move, length of candle ralative to the previous one, to determined when and how much to adjust the total position size.

7. As price move stalled, or the impulse is weaken (deteriorating small time frame trend), the risk of exposure outweigh the possible gain, exit some of the added positions to lock in profit and reduce exposure (sold L3 @ 1.4367). Exit all if the chart terrain call for it.

Hope that I get it right.
  • #12,175
  • Jan 5, 2010 9:19pm Jan 5, 2010 9:19pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Well, I was trying to prompt an explanation of why those trades were made. By popular trading standards were in a hindsight downtrend.

Just trying to learn a little.

Leon
Hi Leon,

I can understand your fustration, however it's just the way infomation is being presented here.

I shall shamelessly attempt to give you my interpretation. For those short trades, most of us have the consensus that the downtrend is still intact, after the figs from GBP, the price action still pointed downwards, hence a good confirmation for a short, shortly after there was figs from AUD, there wasnt any violent reaction and pa still say short, thus a good place to add to position. My guess is that fti saw 4340 to 4350 as demand line, as least in my charts they looked like it, so when price turned decisively at those area, he closed his positions. Reason he went long was rather simple, demand line not broken and probability is that it will continue the upward momentum as indicated in the daily chart.

But really thats just the way i see it, high chance that I am completely wrong...
  • #12,176
  • Jan 5, 2010 9:22pm Jan 5, 2010 9:22pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Well, I was trying to prompt an explanation of why those trades were made. By popular trading standards were in a hindsight downtrend.

Just trying to learn a little.

Leon
leonlorenzo, I remember you from long time gone...2 years ago...the point of these trades is that they are not a trading standard ....

today, while I drove home, I was thinking about our way of trading and I realize how difficult is to put it in words...

how does it works? After passing so many hours watching the screen, the trader might ended up with a deep undertanding of a south or north direction, a trend or range behavior, and therefore the trader will react accordingly...it is a "feel", reason cannot explain the behavior...that is why fti is so effective and so hard to explain. The best he has done is to tell us to buy or sell here or there...and that is not enough...I am so sorry...but it is so hard to explain..

some people say that is momentum trading...I do not believe that is the whole picture...actually, I think, it is taking the general understanding of the charts and also of the political and economical state of the world economy into consideration before buying and selling...and that is done not by a carefull analytical processes but by allowing the mind to capture the full information as a "feeling" or as we call it "mindset"....etc...it is an instantaneous response to the form of charts. He includes both Elliot wave analysis, standard TA and deep personal psychology.

I hope I made myself clear...what I am trying to say it so simple: "the f... man is a genious!" Ok...that is probably too much...let us say he is a real master trader that kindly show us what is possible.

What to do? If we want of learn to trade as per his strategy, we have to surrender. He is asking us to take all the TA books to the trash and focus on ourselves, the NOW moment and MM. So simple and so hard.

Good luck!


Edit: guys...pay attention to the 3king...E is falling...G is falling and JP is probably falling...so we are in a dollar bullish trend...right?...on top of that we have tomorrow figs...I would either buy dollars or stay out as the market will enter into paralysis...my 3 cents.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #12,177
  • Jan 5, 2010 9:33pm Jan 5, 2010 9:33pm
Quoting lilpip
during the usd. decline the ave.fed.deficit a year for past 6 years was 300 billion.

It is now 300 billion every 2 months.
you tell me.

btw God is not partial.
I really don't know much about these stuff, its just that from where I live, the economists and politicians are not as pessimistic. Its true the making of a downfall is in the pipeline, its has been since the rejection of the Grace Commission.

What do u mean by God is not partial ?
  • #12,178
  • Jan 5, 2010 9:35pm Jan 5, 2010 9:35pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
u bot @ 14357 and sold @ 14367.....

U needa make positive 12 pips to earn 10 pips...(e.g. 1 pip spread for buy/sell)..
near 20% of ur winning cut by broker..Is it worth it???

Sonic
Dont know if he's still around but its worth it if your mentally tired and ready to square up after 24 hrs of fun filled activities.
  • #12,179
  • Jan 5, 2010 9:35pm Jan 5, 2010 9:35pm
I just want you all to know the truth as to why the calls and trades tonight.........

FTI in real life is like Chuck Norris.... and everyone knows Chuck doesn't trade with the trends. Trends follow his trades...
  • #12,180
  • Jan 5, 2010 9:36pm Jan 5, 2010 9:36pm
bot l2 4358
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