Anyone who downloaded my indicator, pls download again. I've uploaded the new version which works great.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2550
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2550
- #2,562
- Jan 4, 2010 11:39pm Jan 4, 2010 11:39pm
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Trader | 4,090 Posts
I dream, therefore I become.
- #2,563
- Jan 5, 2010 12:22am Jan 5, 2010 12:22am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
- #2,565
- Jan 5, 2010 1:18am Jan 5, 2010 1:18am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
Hi all...
could u comment on this...
Appreciate your input but i think its all easy in hindsight - im thinking its just one of those trades that goes bad - reason is you say it was traded right into a downmove - yet it is essentially very similar to Jankone's below ... Plus my pin has a tasty long tail ...
: 'hindsight'... etc etcIT'S EASY WHEN U KNOW WHAT U ARE TALKING ABOUT; IT'S HARD or (u say/whine) IT'S HINDSIGHT WHEN U DONT.
u asked for a comment, since u are trying to learn this stuff right, i respectfully gave u one, a detailed one at that.
if u close your mind & outright say/think 'it's hindsight', & not listen (which was your original intention; werent u asking for comments), then it doesnt matter what others tell u.
btw, lower BB turned up PRIOR jankone's pin. the double top (H1/H4) + RSI div happened way prior your trade. i dont think that's hindsight.
i gave several reasons (some of them i posted several times in this thread)... if u read closely u'll get what i mean. (i dont put up charts but that, for the most part, is intentional)
also, about the pin, i already stated (before u did) that it was a nice long-tailed/nosed pin, BUT u stood in front of a roaring train.
dont put too much emphasis on PA shape. there are other more important things than PA shape & i think u know that.
if u did not learn even one bit from my detailed post &/or u think my post was BS, i apologize. but it's not my loss, & hopefully somebody else's gain
- #2,567
- Jan 5, 2010 1:32am Jan 5, 2010 1:32am
- | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,067 Posts
if u did not learn even one bit from my detailed post &/or u think my post was BS, i apologize. but it's not my loss, & hopefully somebody else's gain
i DID say i appreciate your input - but i will disagree with your analysis - you say i stood in front of a roaring train - can you explain WHAT is the difference between the down move on my chart and the down move on Jankones chart as i re-posted ... BOTH are below BOTH MAs, BOTH are clearly moving downwards, BOTH have div.
But .... one worked, one didnt ...
The aggressive player loses by NOT waiting for the break ... the conservative player does not lose a pip as the bar doesn't break ...
- #2,568
- Jan 5, 2010 1:33am Jan 5, 2010 1:33am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
my ... In this case entering at the pins break would have prevented the loss...
[if i play devil's advocate he could also say "saying trading a break of the pin in this case is 'hindsight' "
]like in my initial post, i mentioned preference:
trade pins at the close or after it breaks;
trade 'technically correct' pins only or not.
there are advantages/disadvantages.
his trade is 1 good example of NOT trading close of pins (as oppose to pin breaks)
- #2,569
- Jan 5, 2010 1:42am Jan 5, 2010 1:42am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
lol
i DID say i appreciate your input - but i will disagree with your analysis - you say i stood in front of a roaring train - can you explain WHAT is the difference between the down move on my chart and the down move on Jankones chart as i re-posted ... BOTH are below BOTH MAs, BOTH are clearly moving downwards, BOTH have div.
what matters to me more, is if u learned anything or not from my insight.
seems u have not read my post completely &/or u did not learn anything.
Please read that post again, i mentioned the reasons & your points above. [it's too long u want me to re-post it?
]after (re-)reading it & u STILL disagree, then there is no point asking me again, right
my last tip: zoom out & check the timeframes i've mentioned. open your eyes & you WILL see.
Cheers
- #2,573
- Jan 5, 2010 1:58am Jan 5, 2010 1:58am
- | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,067 Posts
Hi pipmyride,
From my experience, and learning’s from this thread, i have find out that in this kind of pin bars, which you mention, should be break in next or second bar, if it not happened you should close position. If I remember correctly it was written on Ryan materials. As there is no system which work for 100%, I am looking to cut my loss as soon as possible.
cheers
- #2,576
- Jan 5, 2010 3:56am Jan 5, 2010 3:56am
- | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,067 Posts
Hey PMR,
Looks like a decent setup to me. I rarely take bars that have that large a range, but that is just preference.
Josh
Took a nice 'with trend' one on GJ m15 earlier - good for 50 odd pips
Hope to see more good stuff from everyone
- #2,578
- Jan 5, 2010 7:24am Jan 5, 2010 7:24am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts
lol
i DID say i appreciate your input - but i will disagree with your analysis - you say i stood in front of a roaring train - can you explain WHAT is the difference between the down move on my chart and the down move on Jankones chart as i re-posted ... BOTH are below BOTH MAs, BOTH are clearly moving downwards, BOTH have div.
But .... one worked, one didnt ...
The aggressive player loses by NOT waiting for the break ... the conservative player does not lose a pip as the bar doesn't break ...
Everyone has their preference as to how they analyse a potential trade entry and what level of detail they go into and how pick they are. It's about what works for you, the more tools you use to analyse a potential setup the more likelihood that you will take fewer trades but have a very high win rate.
Personally I think I am in the middle, I do not simple take a good sized pin with divergence for a CT trade but I do not go into the level of detail Supreme Chaos does on the higher time frames, Fibs etc.
What I do is mark on my charts PPZ, TL's, major fibs on the longer term charts and will bear these in mind on the 5min timeframe... I will also generally only take a trade for which I think there is potential for at least 1.5R and will mark potential PPZ areas on 5min and 15min timeframe during the day. I also use BRN in my analysis.
With regards your trade, you could easily say it just didn't work as you had a big pin (pin by proxy) took an aggresive order (i.e. not upon breaking of the pin - I never do that, personally I feel that is too aggressive and is just not needed for these methods as A+ trades are plenty) and there was divergence, thus if this is your 'method' then it was just one of the losing trades.
Personally I would have not taken the trade for the following reasons:
- Price has broken a support area on this time frame - from your chart it looks around the 133.12 area - look at the multiple tests of this area.
- If the pin has closed above this support area - i.e. was a 'bullish' pin (hope that makes sense) rather than below, then I might have taken that trade.
- I don't like very large pins like this as a) you need a big move in the opposite direction to make a decent %R - My first target would be the 133.50 area which is a PPZ area and round number (in the abscence of anthing thing else - I'm just looking at your chart from your earlier post) and thus the trade does not have enough potential to the first potential stalling point for me.
- I large quick move down like this will very often lead to RSI divergence, I prefer shallower moves with divergence and not deep moves - look at the angle of your line - very steep.
The difference with this and the trade posted by Jankone for me is that we have not just broken down through a support area...in fact the move and divergence is more shallow, the BB has already turned and squeezed, the pin is smaller and there is at least 1R until the first potential stalling point (132.75 area).
But my overal point is that everyone has a different analysis that goes with this very basic method to help assess whether to enter a trade (as well as everyone will have different ways of exiting a trade), what is important is making this work for you and finding a trading plan that fits your personaility and trading style...this is something that only the individual can work out by backtesting, forward testing (on demo) and finding an entry plan and exit method that works for them and sticking to it. If you trade your plan and suffer a loss then it shouldn't bother you as losses will happen and you know (from practice and research) that your plan works and will make money over the long term.
I hope that is not too winded and is helpful
- #2,579
- Jan 5, 2010 7:25am Jan 5, 2010 7:25am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts
We have a new year and some fresh trades...