DeMark TDF Trading

Hello Everyone,

Some of you will already know me from my “DeMark TDST trading thread”, following several weeks of illustrations I felt it was now time to move on and add another aspect of DeMark trading to the arsenal. Thanks to everyone who took part in the earlier thread and although I will only be posting on this thread from now on I will still be using the TDST trading method when it fits in with the setups. Anyone who wants to learn more about trading TDST bounces please click on this link

DeMark TDF trading is a combination of the TD Setup formation and my own thrust method. I am not claiming I am the only person to think of trading this way but as I am starting the thread I have named it TDF with the “F” standing for my surname Fogarty for illustration purposes, who knows, if it takes off perhaps I will get my name in a book, however that is not my intentions with this thread.

I am a big believer in looking at the bigger picture then zooming in for entry and that is how I want to structure this thread. I will do daily analysis and try to pick the best opportunities and post updates as setups appear and trades are entered. I think that should cover everything so before I bore you too much I will move on to the TDF method.

Indicators: TD Count

TF: Higher timeframe for directional bias, lower timeframe for signal and entry

Signal: TD Setup followed by a thrust bar

Entry Method: Close of first thrust bar, entry can be staggered if risk is too high. If first entry is quickly stopped, take the next thrust bar, MAX TWO ENTRIES PER SIGNAL

Stoploss: Use the thrust bar for stoploss using the “show data” function in the TD Count file

Risk: Recommended 1% per entry, max 2% per signal

Targets: See post number 87 for detailed description

Trade Management: Risk can be spread by entering at better levels after the closure of the thrust bar by either using a lower timeframe or when the risk suits

I have added illustrations of both buy and sell TDF setups which should be clear although if there are any questions please feel free to ask. You are not required to use my long-term analysis to trade this method but I do recommend having an overall picture before entering a trade. I myself have not traded this method yet but will be trading it live so wish me luck.









More examples will follow in the next post.

Cheers
Foggytrader

Please find below the conditions for a TDF Sell Setup:









Cheers
Foggytrader

AUDUSD

Since breaching the lower BAT support at 0.8893 on the 17th of December the bears have taken a significant step forward. We are currently seeing a nice counter move by the bulls producing the required bullish thrust levels required to enter short. In addition we are currently on bar five of a TD sell setup which will complete this Friday. I am happy to sit on the sidelines here until one of the following conditions are met:

1. Upper BAT resistance at 0.9290 is breached

2. Last Bullish thrust bars low at 0.8942 is removed to a close

3. Daily TD Sell setup is completed on Friday

Recommendations:

As we get closer to Friday I would keep a close eye on the 1 hour and 4 hour charts for a potential TDF Sell setup.



Cheers
Foggytrader

EURGBP

Since breaching the lower BAT support at 0.8866 some weeks ago the bears have really failed to follow through. I am happy to sit on the sidelines until one of the following conditions are met:

1. Upper BAT resistance at 0.9194 is breached

2. More bullish thrust bars form and have the low removed to a close



Cheers
Foggytrader

EURJPY

This pair remains under the control of the bears on both the weekly and daily timeframes. Although we have seen a nice bear squeeze move over the festive period I would rather be playing the short side of this market. Should we close above 132.02 tomorrow we will complete a TD Sell setup and I see this as the perfect opportunity to start looking for opportunities to sell this market. Therefore although on the sidelines I would view tomorrow as a big day for this pair and view the following conditions as pivotal:

1. Completion of the TD Sell Setup

2. Removal of the last bullish thrusts low at 132.49

Should either of these conditions follow through I will be looking to go short.



Cheers
Foggytrader

EURUSD

The bears took a significant step towards controlling this market following the removal of the lower BAT support at 1.4497 on the 17th of December. Since this move there appears to be a chaotic battle going on between the bulls and the bears with no clear winner. I am happy to remain on the sidelines until either of the following conditions are met:

1. The formation of a thrust bar (bull or bear) and the subsequent removal of its extreme



Cheers
Foggytrader

Hi foggyTrader, what indicator you use to draw BAT support and resistance?

Thank you!

GBPCHF

Following the removal of the upper BAT resistance some weeks ago the bulls have failed to show any follow through and failed to remove the TDST resistance level at 1.6999 on the 16th of December. Following these developments I am happy to remain on the sidelines until either of the following conditions are met:

1. The lower BAT support at 1.6284 is removed

2. The removal of the last bearish thrusts low to a close (1.6778)



Cheers
Foggytrader

I use the BAT indicator, you can find it on FF but here is the one I am using, as explained in the TDST thread, you need to play around with the settings till you get the right ones for each pair but it is a very good trading tool as it is not a lagging nore repainting indicator.

Once I get through my analysis I will post how I trade the BAT long-term and the indicator.

I get more questions about my BAT analysis than anything else, maybe I should just do a thread on that... lol....

Cheers
Foggytrader

GBPJPY

This pair remains a little undecided being controlled by the bulls on the weekly and the bears on the daily. We have seen a failure of sorts at the daily TDST resistance level today and yesterday so I am tempted to sell strength here. However, as we have made a higher low higher high over recent weeks I would rather see confirmation by the removal of the last bullish thrusts low before becoming involved. Therefore I am happy to stay on the sidelines until either or the following conditions are met:

1. Last bullish thrusts low of 148.22 removed to a close

2. BAT resistance at 152.85 is removed



Cheers
Foggytrader

GBPUSD

Since removing the lower BAT support at 1.5988 some days ago we have completed the required 25% retracement without the chance to go long short-term. Therefore, I would only like to become involved on the short side of this market and will await the removal of the last bullish thrusts low at 1.6046 to a close before becoming involved.



Cheers
Foggytrader

USDCAD

Since breaching the upper BAT resistance some weeks ago the bulls have failed to make any head way. There appears to be no clear winner in this battle as of yet and I am happy to remain on the sidelines unless either of the following conditions are met:

1. Removal of the last bearish thrusts high at 1.0515 to a close

2. Bounce from the TDST support at 1.0263 followed by confirmation thrust bar

3. Removal of the lower BAT support at 1.0201



Cheers
Foggytrader

USDJPY

We have seen some interesting developments over the last few weeks here with the removal of the BAT resistance and a TD Sell setup which completed on Christmas eve. This should provide us with a good selling opportunity as we are now waiting for a bearish thrust bar to signal entry of the TDF trade and a close below the last bullish thrusts low at 91.90 to signal a retracement following the BAT breach. Taking this into consideration I am happy to sit on the sidelines until either of the following conditions are met:

1. Removal of the last bullish thrusts low of 91.90 to a close

2. The formation of a bearish thrust



Cheers
Foggytrader

Since so many people keep asking, here is how I use the BAT indicator for long-term analysis.









Cheers
Foggytrader

Here is the bullish scenario:









Cheers
Foggytrader

As you can see from my current analysis I will be taking the day off tomorrow as I am sidelined waiting for better opportunities on all pairs. However, that doesn't mean TDF formations won't appear so if you have a diferent long-term view to me and feel it is time to trade a certain pair please feel free to post your entries.

Cheers
Foggytrader

As I am waiting for better levels on all pairs I thought I would take the time to post some past charts with situations that conform to the TDF trading style to help you spot the signals.

The three charts below are of USDJPY from the past few days on a 15 minute, 30 minute and 1 hour basis. I think these examples show how setups can appear on multiple timeframes which only goes to strengthen the signal. I have also tried to illustrate the second entry part of the trade which comes into play if the first signal is stopped.

I will do some more charts over the course of the day, any questions please feel free to ask.







Cheers
Foggytrader

Here is another couple of training examples from the past few days. The 30 minute example produces what I would call a perfect setup giving us a TD Sell Setup followed by a TDST failure then a bearish thrust, perfect! However, like I say, you need to be able to pick the right direction but I believe it is possible. What I like about this method is its simplicity, I hope everyone else finds it easy to understand.





Cheers
Foggytrader

yes foggy

The picture below shows some recent action on the 4 hour chart of EURGBP and illustrates how we can get a signal on a higher timeframe such as 4 hour but if the risk is too high we need to zoom in a few timeframes to find a lower risk entry. As this shows, if we get a signal on the 4 hour chart we can have a lot of time to look for opportunities on the lower timeframes.



Cheers
Foggytrader