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The Reason why 95% Traders fail

  • #261
  • Jan 2, 2010 8:14pm Jan 2, 2010 8:14pm
Quoting kenkomo
I would disagree with this. Most successful traders and big investment Banks do not scalp.
At least, not on a regular basis.
{How do you explain Stop Hunting?}

I've been scalping (for the last 4 weeks) & I consider myself to be a successfull Trader.{it's ok if you disagree}

I'm not saying I reccommend it, just saying that those that know how to play {all Timeframes} do not pass an opportunity to Pirate some...

  • #262
  • Jan 2, 2010 10:35pm Jan 2, 2010 10:35pm
Quoting steveshelby
Trade setups do not have probabilities.

.
Err, yes they do. You are trying to impose pure mathematical theory on trading. It will never be a pure mathematical equation. I don't want to speak for Jacko, but his analysis of the probability of the trade setup working is based in two strong areas. The first is Back testing and use the results to give a result as a percent of how often it has occurred, with an appropriate statistical margin for error. Secondly, the forex market is becoming more centred by the big market traders towards similar trading patterns, so it is becoming more self-perpetuating around those patterns, which is moving the probabilities of some patterns to higher percents. Thats why he is a good trader. He sees those things and uses them to his and the groups advantage.
  • #263
  • Jan 3, 2010 3:00am Jan 3, 2010 3:00am
Quoting kenkomo
I would disagree with this. Most successful traders and big investment Banks do not scalp.
Hehe Paul Rotter would disagree.

http://www.trading-naked.com/paul_rotter.htm

I guess he's not sucessful enough for your standards.
  • #264
  • Jan 3, 2010 11:50am Jan 3, 2010 11:50am
Quoting Turveyd
History is the only way to assess if something has merit or not which is viewed as statistical probability.
Bingo! Statistics are calculated using historical data. Statistics should not be confused with probability. The math is similar but the difference between the two is huge.
  • #265
  • Jan 3, 2010 11:51am Jan 3, 2010 11:51am
Quoting kenkomo
Err, yes they do. You are trying to impose pure mathematical theory on trading. It will never be a pure mathematical equation. I don't want to speak for Jacko, but his analysis of the probability of the trade setup working is based in two strong areas. The first is Back testing and use the results to give a result as a percent of how often it has occurred, with an appropriate statistical margin for error. Secondly, the forex market is becoming more centred by the big market traders towards similar trading patterns, so...
Please see my previous post. It is not semantics.
  • #266
  • Jan 3, 2010 11:53am Jan 3, 2010 11:53am
You can asign a probability to a trade if you trade Binary Options.
In fact the price (being between 0 and 100) reflects the probablity of how likely it is that you win your trade.
  • #267
  • Jan 3, 2010 11:59am Jan 3, 2010 11:59am
Quoting steveshelby
Bingo! Statistics are calculated using historical data. Statistics should not be confused with probability. The math is similar but the difference between the two is huge.

I don't think thats the case, obviously History isn't a 100% accurate picture of the future, thats why I prefer a short back test area say 10 days and when something stops working I go off and find something else.

There are a lot of things that work short term you spot them say 5 days into them working but the issue is by day 7 everyones spotted them and by day 8 everyones being killed doing that exact thing, I wasted a lot of time on these thinking I'd found the grail but no there just traps.

For instance sometimes the market drops 20pips then reverses and will do it multiple times then it'll switch to dropping 20pips pause while we load up then continue down killing us multiple times in a row.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #268
  • Jan 3, 2010 12:01pm Jan 3, 2010 12:01pm
Quoting Tjpld
You can asign a probability to a trade if you trade Binary Options.
In fact the price (being between 0 and 100) reflects the probablity of how likely it is that you win your trade.

There entirely a distance, ATR ( Average True Range ) and time to expiry calculation there.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #269
  • Jan 3, 2010 2:23pm Jan 3, 2010 2:23pm
I think the reason is they try to predict market instead of following it.
Best regards, Andrew Forex
  • #270
  • Jan 3, 2010 3:43pm Jan 3, 2010 3:43pm
Quoting kenkomo
Err, yes they do. You are trying to impose pure mathematical theory on trading. It will never be a pure mathematical equation. I don't want to speak for Jacko, but his analysis of the probability of the trade setup working is based in two strong areas. The first is Back testing and use the results to give a result as a percent of how often it has occurred, with an appropriate statistical margin for error. Secondly, the forex market is becoming more centred by the big market traders towards similar trading patterns, so...
  • #271
  • Jan 3, 2010 5:55pm Jan 3, 2010 5:55pm
Quoting Tjpld
Hehe Paul Rotter would disagree.

http://www.trading-naked.com/paul_rotter.htm

I guess he's not sucessful enough for your standards.
There will always be exceptions to the rule. I don't want to get into an argument but I did say: Most successful traders and big investment Banks do not scalp
  • #272
  • Jan 3, 2010 6:36pm Jan 3, 2010 6:36pm
Quoting kenkomo
There will always be exceptions to the rule. I don't want to get into an argument but I did say: Most successful traders and big investment Banks do not scalp

They can't really scalp as they trade at such huge volumes, thats pretty much the only advantage we've got over them and why everything is so Anti Scalp as well thats there PR work they don't like us using it.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #273
  • Jan 4, 2010 6:40pm Jan 4, 2010 6:40pm
Brett Steenbarger's view: "The main cause of trading failure is a lack of an objective edge in the marketplace, trading random patterns that have never been tested out for success."
Full article posted by Dopey here.
  • #274
  • Jan 5, 2010 2:23am Jan 5, 2010 2:23am
Lack of knowledge, and the human "brain structure".
  • #275
  • Jan 5, 2010 4:17am Jan 5, 2010 4:17am
Quoting Prof Hunter
Lack of knowledge, and the human "brain structure".
Fortunately, both Lack of knowledge and the human "brain structure" can be modified to compensate for both shortcomings.
  • #276
  • Jan 5, 2010 4:24am Jan 5, 2010 4:24am
What is the definition of "failure" for the purposes of this post?
Happy trading, pip pip!
  • #277
  • Jan 5, 2010 4:40am Jan 5, 2010 4:40am
Quoting LadyPenelope
What is the definition of "failure" for the purposes of this post?
I guess to not be in profit.
But it isn't faillure if you have learned from your mistakes..
  • #278
  • Edited 5:11am Jan 5, 2010 5:09am | Edited 5:11am
Quoting Chunnel
I guess to not be in profit.
But it isn't faillure if you have learned from your mistakes..
It is my experience over the past number of years, that there are as many definitions of "failure" as there are traders typing strokes on keyboards. And their personal definition changes over time.

I believe the more important question is: Why does a trader SUCCEED?.
I believe it's important to phrase your questions in the positive.

If you've been fortunate enough to have done any NLP work, you will have enjoyed the experience of having your brain working in a positive state, creating pictures of yourself that you can believe, creating brain pictures of the detail of moving TOWARDS your goals / wants / desires / needs (rather than away from things).

This isn't "The Secret" BS, this is much more fundamental - it is how your brain actually believes whatever you tell yourself!
Happy trading, pip pip!
  • #279
  • Jan 5, 2010 5:22am Jan 5, 2010 5:22am
Quoting LadyPenelope
It is my experience over the past number of years, that there are as many definitions of "failure" as there are traders typing strokes on keyboards. And their personal definition changes over time.

I believe the more important question is: Why does a trader SUCCEED?.
I believe it's important to phrase your questions in the positive.

If you've been fortunate enough to have done any NLP work, you will have enjoyed the experience of having your brain working in a positive state, creating pictures of yourself that you can believe, creating brain...

Your brain is a complicated thing, you think you think about something but most of the time a part of your makes decisions instantly I find this part of my brain very very poor at trading as it's merely reacting I need to really ignore this instinct to trade well.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #280
  • Jan 5, 2010 6:33am Jan 5, 2010 6:33am
Quoting Turveyd
Your brain is a complicated thing, you think you think about something but most of the time a part of your makes decisions instantly I find this part of my brain very very poor at trading as it's merely reacting I need to really ignore this instinct to trade well.
Oh, Mr T. At the age of 102 you are a touch cynical! You are of course completely correct. One should do all the brain stuff, the planning, before one approaches one's trading platform, and then leave said brain at the door (except bare minimum required to punch the order keys and then shut down the pee cee.)

Looking at your profile: One minute charts. Very ADD, you gotta love 'em. However, these candles take forever to close, don't you think? Ticks are much more fun!
Happy trading, pip pip!
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