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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #11,841
  • Jan 3, 2010 9:30am Jan 3, 2010 9:30am
Quoting karonte
Hello, this is my first post in FF, only to give thanks and tell you my story.

My first contact with the markets was in mid-2007. I started reading some books, and after a couple of months I was trading CFDs with real money, very little money indeed. I switched to YM, but immediately I closed the account because I saw that although it seemed easy, in reality it's not: my trading was limited by the size of my account, and small movements swept my positions. And I don't want to say anything about my mindset :-(

I had to do it otherwise. I started...
Hi karonte,
Welcome.
seems you're getting good into you learning curve.
Hold greed scorpion down , and cautiously see if you can slowly internalise the 'feel" and battle abilities.

try stay 3X of daily risk profile, and you should be safe. Your watching your risk snoball on spread sheet is good, until you get the figs estimates into your mindset. vlitility may be the soup o the year. See i you can stay within her gyrations.i becoms excessive, try scaling down your base skew.

regards
  • #11,842
  • Edited 11:05am Jan 3, 2010 9:31am | Edited 11:05am
Quoting lilpip
I think I found fti's dragon.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28854872...framenumber/1/


Nov. and previous months space pictures.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34149283.../?beginSlide=1
lilpip, my dragon is mine. Try find yours.
Nice lanterns.

regards

PS and that peter schiff guy, I don't know.
In the same breath he calls you stay off buy paper, and then goes to ask to buy paper. Stocks are corp debt paper, be aware.
  • #11,843
  • Edited 12:30pm Jan 3, 2010 9:40am | Edited 12:30pm
Quoting GEfx
Here is a happy thought to start the new year. My mind goes to wierd places when I am skiing -- LOL. Consider the enormous debt levels that the US, Europe, Japan and UK have built up to now, and are planning to build over the next ten years, will they ever be able to pay them off? The answer, which I think is well understood by everyone, is no. The solution for the US will be a devaluation of the dollar. I think the US devalued the dollar by 75% in 1934, so perhaps that is a good level to move toward when this happens. It will be interesting to...
Hey Gefx,

broke noting on the slopes? no records ? or maybe some hearts?

the market is all poised for much volitility, this 1st quarter.
bias to very very bearish usd.but when all media and info turns too directional, things gets very tricky. As usual, I just remind that nimbleness can get you out of tight situations. even not into them.
Bias is bias, we still need dance her.

so lock and load.
scouts teams in front, the commanders in the middle and the army behind in groups .

Battle stations in a few hours time. Make me proud.

But no rushing, listen to the music and dance the tune .


regards

Dedicated to the USD.
Inserted Video


I find the scratching the balls part, such a novelty.
reminds me , this year, the steel balls out for scratching.
  • #11,844
  • Jan 3, 2010 10:41am Jan 3, 2010 10:41am
Quoting fti
Hey Gefx,

broke noting on the slopes? no records ? or maybe some hearts?

the market is all poised for much volitility, this 1st quarter.
bias to very very bearish usd.but when all media and info turns too directional, things gets very tricky. As usual, I just remind that nimbleness can get you out of tight situations. even not into them.
Bias is bias, we still need dance her.

so lock and load.
scouts teams in front, the commanders in the middle and the army behind in groups .

Battle stations in a few hours time. Make me proud....
Hi fti, I am inspired by your words. Let's get 2010 off to a good start. Taking a deep breath and focusing -- LOL. I will do some chart work later today since I have been gone for over a week. Then we dance the dance! Have a good one and see you later, and still trying to thaw out from last week.
  • #11,845
  • Jan 3, 2010 11:56am Jan 3, 2010 11:56am
[quote=fti;3336365

PS and that peter schiff guy, I don't know.
In the same breath he calls you stay off buy paper, and then goes to ask to buy paper. Stocks are corp debt paper, be aware.[/quote]

From what Ive understood he mostly went to metals for that very reason.
  • #11,846
  • Jan 3, 2010 11:58am Jan 3, 2010 11:58am
The e/u sure doesnt seem very motivated to head north, will see what the week brings.
  • #11,847
  • Jan 3, 2010 12:03pm Jan 3, 2010 12:03pm
Quoting fti
lilpip, my dragon is mine. Try find yours.
Nice lanterns.
But the caption, that symbol of prosperity through fortitude and hard work applies.
Hows that?
  • #11,848
  • Jan 3, 2010 12:10pm Jan 3, 2010 12:10pm
Quoting lilpip
From what Ive understood he mostly went to metals for that very reason.
metalsis ok if its the precious metals group. basically gold, palladium (white Gold), platinum, titanium

when it comes down to base commercial metals, there is too much inventory cost, makes cost of carry negative.

One frind of mine have so much silver bricks, I believe he may be considering using it as construction material. The other thing is the secondary gold and silver markets are pricing up.
esp photography solutions silver recovery, and pawn resmelting of consumer gold.

These days, hedging requires more dynamic and mobile avenues, most are still impeded by Laws and By-Laws.
Non margined mobility of currency wealth, seems most viable avenue for now.

regards
  • #11,849
  • Jan 3, 2010 12:11pm Jan 3, 2010 12:11pm
Quoting lilpip
But the caption, that symbol of prosperity through fortitude and hard work applies.
Hows that?
goes without having to say it, isn't it.
its a given. however I apologise or forgetting to compliment your sharpness and attention to details. fare you good in your dance. Soon all my "secrets" will be in the open?

regards
  • #11,850
  • Edited 12:49pm Jan 3, 2010 12:18pm | Edited 12:49pm
Quoting lilpip
The e/u sure doesnt seem very motivated to head north, will see what the week brings.
for her to be able to spring, she has to find her spring board.
until that firm support is seen, big money would be sidelined.

no one knows the time or hour, keep vigilant.

Be aware the whole world is eyeballing this usd plunge. So mmakers will be at it to test balls of weak holders and speculators. So expect every trick from the book.

regards

I as contempulating leading the thread on this roller coaster rides, but I am aware that the swift gapping and volatility will make it extermely counterproductive as the timing of those hits, is critical to the book's costing.

best I could do is to set possibilities zones, hen they form, but to trained eyes, these will be obvious.
However, lets see hat I can do.

!st things first.
Gotta get a feel of what the order books looks. eyeballs on fareast/tokyo book first.

today expecting 2 way action. As 2010 order book rebuilts.
  • #11,851
  • Jan 3, 2010 12:47pm Jan 3, 2010 12:47pm
Quoting fti
Hi All,

The Year is drawing to a close. And Ii was thinking, what is the most appropriate present for you chaps.

So here it is, I hope you like it.

After after 3 years since I unveiled it for you , it seems that many still connot understand this point. Sometimes people gets so into the woods that they cannot see the forest. 3 years ago, I said that it is important that you understand the structure of the OTC markets. And in the aow training I hinted that you must know "the enemy' and "the terrain" in which you battled. The point still...
Hi fti, i am sure you had a good start for the new year.

The above post and subsequent argument was interesting for me. However, I hope you can bring more clarity to it. Like you say there is no real supply and demand driven price movements. In the nutshell, in retail forex, it is all artifical prices or (relative prices ?). Therefore all wins and losses are at broker levels and had no meaningful impact in the real market place. The percived trends are really just illsuions then ? And if such a case is true, then ETF/ETN products would be a waste of time ?



I can only stay sideline and watch the market for now, got reservist later...
  • #11,852
  • Edited 1:29pm Jan 3, 2010 1:03pm | Edited 1:29pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Hi fti, i am sure you had a good start for the new year.

The above post and subsequent argument was interesting for me. However, I hope you can bring more clarity to it. Like you say there is no real supply and demand driven price movements. In the nutshell, in retail forex, it is all artifical prices or (relative prices ?). Therefore all wins and losses are at broker levels and had no meaningful impact in the real market place. The percived trends are really just illsuions then ? And if such a case is true, then ETF/ETN products would be a...
reservist, pray they not send you to mosqi island maybe just guard furniture or flag pole.


ai ya, not that there is no real ss/dd driver. Just that, that happens at apex levels. Your price rigidity is dependent on you brokers books and can be shaded anywhere between 25 to 50 pips from my findings. They make it impossible to arbitrage them to market , as they use computer tricks to shade the price infractions. They can make the ss or dd elasticity as rigid as they want it, using computers to price , with one eye on your blotter and another on the interbank. I esp found slippage of the shades very irritating to customer blotters. But of course if many traders are contrarian to your positions , then it works for you. but every time you mouse to your orderbook, comps guarding you too.

Their ss/dd elasticity rigidity is due to their computerised book shadings, la

regards

Inserted Video



I hate highlighting the problems , without solutions.
Solution, have multiple brokers. Not every brokers books is shading the same. esp those of very fine spreads, then the brokers always shading the same, is because ids o same apex. You try enough of them, you will sandbox , the some out.

This price infraction thingy is OTC characteristics, only ay to solve it is to have exchange trading. The higher cost of filling trades and clearing of trades, the cure is in fact worst than the disease.
  • #11,853
  • Jan 3, 2010 1:30pm Jan 3, 2010 1:30pm
LOL the ns song is hilarious...i was from the navy, probably will be sailing the same routes as practice only. Only pray that the weather will cooperate.

ok arbing is out of the question, but I feel that even if shading is widely practiced, it is quite easy to catch since there are so many quote sources available. Its ok, I understand you cant say too much. Thanks anyway..


just read your edited post, yah i use multiple brokers too....many times especially before those NFA new regulations, can easily see who is from the same apex when a bad tick occurs, now its very rare, but with your some experience still can do
  • #11,854
  • Jan 3, 2010 1:38pm Jan 3, 2010 1:38pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
LOL the ns song is hilarious...i was from the navy, probably will be sailing the same routes as practice only. Only pray that the weather will cooperate.

ok arbing is out of the question, but I feel that even if shading is widely practiced, it is quite easy to catch since there are so many quote sources available. Its ok, I understand you cant say too much. Thanks anyway..


just read your edited post, yah i use multiple brokers too....many times especially before those NFA new regulations, can easily see who is from the same apex when a...
Good for you, at least you get to sail about and watch the girls in wet suits. mostly you spared the mosqi.

regards
  • #11,855
  • Jan 3, 2010 1:44pm Jan 3, 2010 1:44pm
Quoting fti


I hate highlighting the problems , without solutions.
Solution, have multiple brokers. Not every brokers books is shading the same. esp those of very fine spreads, then the brokers always shading the same, is because ids o same apex. You try enough of them, you will sandbox , the some out.

This price infraction thingy is OTC characteristics, only ay to solve it is to have exchange trading. The higher cost of filling trades and clearing of trades, the cure is in fact worst than the disease.
Is the brokers shade is relation to their book vs. actual market ( attempt to reduce risk)? Or attempt to garner profits outside reduced spread?

Can the shade be used as indicator? At times I can catch Oanda's shade changing from biased to neutral. Shading normally in the direction of the current move, the only way to enter close to market during those times it seems is to enter contrairian but this leaves you vulnerable trying to catch the knife.
  • #11,856
  • Jan 3, 2010 1:51pm Jan 3, 2010 1:51pm
Quoting fti
Good for you, at least you get to sail about and watch the girls in wet suits. mostly you spared the mosqi.

regards
  • #11,857
  • Edited 2:20pm Jan 3, 2010 2:08pm | Edited 2:20pm
Quoting auxesis
Is the brokers shade is relation to their book vs. actual market ( attempt to reduce risk)? Or attempt to garner profits outside reduced spread?

Can the shade be used as indicator? At times I can catch Oanda's shade changing from biased to neutral. Shading normally in the direction of the current move, the only way to enter close to market during those times it seems is to enter contrairian but this leaves you vulnerable trying to catch the knife.
No aux, this is a characteristic of OTC markets. It happens in the spot interbank as well. The difference is that in the interbank market access is multiple in terms of counterparties as well as medium of trading. At retail tickets and margined you are mercied to your chosen broker. and if you are apexed the same then your market access is limited. Moreover your blotter is eyeballed and your mouse monitored and reacted to at nano seconds speed. Of course if you are flash gordon , thats poses no problems.

Like I said, the comps shades reacts to both market as well as your blotter, so in essence the net impact is slippage, which can add up over time. Some even resort to hung platforms and other technicals to squeeze the pips from the trades. This their IT advantage, but ith multiple access , you can play them at their own game.

What ever you need to do in the markets , you have to do. Do not allow broker shading frustration to influence your trading dance. That is not a trade process decision.

But knowing where the better access are makes for better bottom line. Over time the % ratio to profits can be in the high %s. even to the high 50 s


regards
  • #11,858
  • Jan 3, 2010 2:32pm Jan 3, 2010 2:32pm
Quoting fti
Hi karonte,
Welcome.
seems you're getting good into you learning curve.
Hold greed scorpion down , and cautiously see if you can slowly internalise the 'feel" and battle abilities.

try stay 3X of daily risk profile, and you should be safe. Your watching your risk snoball on spread sheet is good, until you get the figs estimates into your mindset. vlitility may be the soup o the year. See i you can stay within her gyrations.i becoms excessive, try scaling down your base skew.

regards
Thank you. With this forecasted volatility and my experience it will be as a new market to me. I'll try to be prepared and I'll calculate the adjustments. In my case I think that it will be another good lesson in my training, independently of the outcome. I'll look to send the scout to the battlefield and try to attack if I feel it appropiate.
  • #11,859
  • Jan 3, 2010 2:32pm Jan 3, 2010 2:32pm
Quoting fti
metalsis ok if its the precious metals group. basically gold, palladium (white Gold), platinum, titanium

when it comes down to base commercial metals, there is too much inventory cost, makes cost of carry negative.

One frind of mine have so much silver bricks, I believe he may be considering using it as construction material. The other thing is the secondary gold and silver markets are pricing up.
esp photography solutions silver recovery, and pawn resmelting of consumer gold.

These days, hedging requires more dynamic and mobile avenues,...
I volunteer to be the one cleaning up the silver falling off his work bench making a mess on the floor.
  • #11,860
  • Jan 3, 2010 2:39pm Jan 3, 2010 2:39pm
Quoting lilpip
I volunteer to be the one cleaning up the silver falling off his work bench making a mess on the floor.
sure , lilpip, make him a price, he delivers fob at South EAsia ports. But you need container vessel, he is bullion trader. and insurance is at your risk. But you had better check if you can park the silver with the Hunt brothers.

Alternative is to replace your aluminium panels in your house with silver. Reminds me , thinking of changing all my taps to solid gold. that ay at least the bullion is put to productivity.)


regards
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